Well, HOLEE SHIT! I knew it was tight among the Astros and the NL East Teams That Aren't The Braves, but where the hell did the Brewers and Cubs come from?
I think the Brew Crew will come out of this season feeling very good about themselves knowing they came close. But for the real winner...well...I guess I'll go with Florida. But damn, this is a tough one to call.
And you thought selling Amway was his career lowlight?
I'd say it's really just a two team race. The Nats, Brewers, Cubs, and Mets are too far out to pass all three of the top teams even with a torrid finish. I also think the Phils are out of just because I have no confidence in them to finish out a season strong, especially if they have any games left against the Marlins. The Marlins and the Astros are both really good teams with similar strengths. Each teams has really strong starting pitching, a great closer, and an adequate offense if the pitching lives up to expectations. Burnett and Clemens have both struggled in the past few weeks, Oswalt and Beckett have had some shaky starts, and Willis and Pettitte have both been outstanding. I give a slight edge to Florida right now, but that's really just a gut feeling.
Phillies have 7 more games vs. Atlanta, and 3 vs. Florida. On top of that, they play the Mets & Nats 3 more times each. If there was any time to get hot (and after taking 2 of 3 from the Marlins over the weekend, I wouldn't rule it out), now would be it.
Big 4-game series for the Marlins against the Astros tonight. I'd be happy with a split, really. But all of the Marlins opponents are over .500 from here on out. They have the toughest schedule the rest of the way, so they'll earn it if they make it.
The Marlins bullpen and even the starters are scaring me a bit now, after losing 2 of 3 from the Phils. Aside from Willis, no one has been consistent lately- Beckett has been off and on, Vargas and Burnett have been awful and Valdez is Valdez. Hopefully, their lineup can bail them out a few times and be enough to push them past the 'stros.
FLA --- @ HOU HOU 0.5 v FLA PHI 1.0 v ATL WAS 4.0 v NYM MIL 5.5 @ ARZ NYM 5.5 @ WAS CHC 6.0 v CIN
The Cubs have gotten hot and the Braves killing the other NLE teams is a big factor, but I believe the bottom teams have closed in (or at least not fallen completely off) more because the leaders keep playing each other, and so everyone else can catch up as long as they're playing over .500
If the Brew Crew could sweep Arizona, they could sneak their way into the race. The remaining schedule is 3 road Zona, 3 road Astros(missing Clemens and Pettite), 3 home Chicago, 3 home Cardinals (who will probably have everything clinched and be resting guys), 4 home Reds, 3 road Pirates. Unrealistic, but if the teams in the N.L. East beat themselves up and 85 ties/86 wins, the Brewers could go 14-5 for a playoff game, 15-4 for the outright spot. Very doubtful, but, if they are within 2 going into the last week, the schedule is very kind to them.
Well, that field thinned quickly. Washington was looking like the sentimental favorite, but losing 2 of 3 to San Diego has them in trouble, which is a shame, because they were catching fire for a minute there.
Houston's in the driver's seat right now, especially with the Braves systematically sniping the NL East hopefuls. And if the Clemens, Pettite, and Oswalt rotation gets into October, look out!
And you thought selling Amway was his career lowlight?
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