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|  #1 Posted on 1.10.10 1104.48
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1105.12 | http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100930&content_id=15268346&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb { Fixed link - Ed. }
In what could be a very close AL Cy Young race, Felix Hernandez stands on the outside looking in between the 2 favorites for the AL Cy Young between CC Sabathia and David Price.
CC Sabathia has won 20+ games for the first time in his career and David Price has been a key catalyst for Tampa Bay getting into the postseason and as of right now, has 19 wins in the rugged AL East.
However, "King Felix" is only 13-12 but leads the league or is near the tops in almost every major pitching statistical category.
209 scoreless innings (the most since Randy Johnson's 252 in 1999), pitched nearly 250 innings (tops), 232 k's (most in the AL), 2.27 ERA (lowest in the AL) and to add to his impressive stats, he went 5-1 against the rugged AL East and a microscopic 0.63 ERA while going 3-0 against the defending champs.
Thoughts and Analysis:
I would like to see Felix win it but you could also make the case for and against him winning it. If Felix were with the Yanks, Rays or some other top tier team, Felix with those numbers would be a 20 game winner or at least a 17 /18 game winner. With the team he is one, he would have to pitch a perfect game (every game) to get his win total up.
Unfortunately, I also see the Cy Young as the MVP of pitching and this case, it would either go to Price or Sabathia depending who wins the AL East crown.
I think Felix could win it even with his 13 wins but at the very least, he will get some votes that will mix up the Cy Young voting.
Thoughts and opinions........
(edited by CRZ on 1.10.10 1344) | Promote this thread! |             | Psycho Penguin
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| #2 Posted on 1.10.10 1142.11
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1143.30 | Yes. Voters said wins are a team stat so they should consider that.
Now if he was 5-20, no, but 13-12 on a 65 or whatever win team is expected. | El Nastio
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| #3 Posted on 1.10.10 1148.30
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1150.04 | 13 wins out of their 65? If I didn't know any better that would mean he has 20% of their wins. Winning 20% of the games? Well, I suppose if the M's won 90 games then he would have won around 18 or so.
It should go to the best pitcher, and this year that is Hernandez. | JayJayDean
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| #4 Posted on 1.10.10 1151.41
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1156.24 | Originally posted by El Nastio
13 wins out of their 65? If I didn't know any better that would mean he has 20% of their wins. Winning 20% of the games? Well, I suppose if the M's won 90 games then he would have won around 18 or so.
It should go to the best pitcher, and this year that is Hernandez.
What he said. | Big Bad
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|  #5 Posted on 1.10.10 1157.43
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1158.33 | | Voters should take into consideration just how historically bad the Mariners' offense is this year. Felix shouldn't be punished for the fact that he's playing behind the worst offensive team of the DH era. | Peter The Hegemon
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| #6 Posted on 1.10.10 1235.49
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1236.18 | I agree. Felix has been the best.
Yankees announcer/ESPN New York radio host Michael Kay has been repeatedly and loudly arguing that Sabathia should win because a great pitcher can find a way to win; that there's an important skill to bearing down when you're getting little run support and keeping your team ahead (but not necessarily pitching your best) when you do get support. I do think there's some truth to that--so I looked to see whether CC was actually doing that. He's not. I looked at their team's record in 1- and 2-run games. The Yankees when Sabathia is pitching are 5-5 in such close games. The Mariners when Hernandez pitches are 9-7 in such close games. If you just go by decisions, Sabathia is 4-2 and Hernandez 5-2. So I don't see where Sabathia is doing anything special to win more games than Hernandez; he's just pitching for a better team.
If I had a vote, it would be Hernandez 1, Price 2, and then I'd have to think about whether Buchholz or Sabathia gets 3. Sabathia has been good, but he hasn't been the best.
(edited by Peter The Hegemon on 1.10.10 1336)
(edited by Peter The Hegemon on 1.10.10 1346) | redsoxnation
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| #7 Posted on 1.10.10 1254.51
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1255.05 | | I give it to Price because pitching in games that are meaningful after mid April has some value. | JayJayDean
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| #8 Posted on 1.10.10 1335.24
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1335.31 | Originally posted by redsoxnation
I give it to Price because pitching in games that are meaningful after mid April has some value.
This is an outstanding point, because as I look through the standings I see the Seattle Mariners at "5-6", since they stopped counting the Mariners' games on April 16.
The 2-hit shutout he pitched at Yankee Stadium on June 30? Meaningless. (In fact, I called and spoke with Joe Girardi - after going through the New York City Yellow Pages and calling all of the Joe Girardis until I reached him - and I asked him if he would have like to have that game be a win today, since his team is tied at the top of the AL East, and he said "no JJD, that game is meaningless and I would reject that game AND the other two times Felix beat us (while giving us one run in 26 IP) because they were meaningless and would not have given us a one, two, or three-game lead over the Rays for the division title.
The win against the Twins on June 3? Meaningless, which is why the Twins didn't even try to win. (Too bad, too, because that one meaningless game is the difference today between the Twins being tied with the Rays and Yankees for the best record in the AL, which could give the Twins home-field advantage through the ALCS.)
The Mariners have the 30th-best runs scored, batting average, on-base, AND slugging percentages in the majors. That would be great if there were 1000 Major League Baseball teams. However, there are 30 Major League Baseball teams. All of those statistics are the direct cause of the Mariners place in the standings. If the Mariners had even an AVERAGE offense, Felix might have done better than a 3-2 W-L record in August - a month when he had a 0.82 ERA. ZERO. POINT. EIGHT. TWO. And the Mariners probably would have won more games overall. And we wouldn't be having this conversation.
The fact that Felix is being DISCUSSED as a candidate for the award is because he has been so awesome that he DESERVES the award. | StaggerLee
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| #9 Posted on 1.10.10 1338.23
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1340.20 | Shouldn't your starter win 20% of your teams wns? Most teams use five starters so logic would say that a 20% total makes sense and us average to slightly above average.
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball. | spf
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| #10 Posted on 1.10.10 1349.17
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1352.49 | Originally posted by StaggerLee
Shouldn't your starter win 20% of your teams wns? Most teams use five starters so logic would say that a 20% total makes sense and us average to slightly above average.
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball.
So I assume you agree with me that the best single season pitcher in the last 30 years is Bob Welch in 1990, right? | It's False
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| #11 Posted on 1.10.10 1349.52
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1354.15 | The Hot Stone League | Felix Hernandez gets key Cy Young endorsements | Seattle Times Newspaper
Last Start -- Suffered a tough-luck loss throwing a CG 2-hitter in a 1-0 defeat 9/23 at Toronto...only run allowed came on a first-inning home run by Jose Bautista...over his last 2 starts has allowed only 5 hits and 2 runs in 16.0 IP, including carrying a no-hitter into the 8th inning in his start 9/17 vs. Texas.
Last 9 Starts -- Over his last 9 starts (since 8/10) is 5-3 with a 0.94 ERA (7 ER, 67.1 IP).
Run Support -- In 12 losses, has received 7 total runs of support (runs scored when he is in the game)...Mariners have scored 1 or fewer runs in 10 of 33 starts, and 2 or fewer runs 15 times...Mariners have not scored a run behind Felix in 7 of his last 13 starts...has the lowest run support average in the AL this season (3.09).
And people wonder why guys like Felix end up in pinstripes half the time. | Psycho Penguin
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| #12 Posted on 1.10.10 1408.11
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1408.53 | Originally posted by redsoxnation
I give it to Price because pitching in games that are meaningful after mid April has some value.
This is the kind of attitude that gives Jason White a Heisman Trophy. | El Nastio
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| #13 Posted on 1.10.10 1412.56
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1416.37 | Originally posted by StaggerLee
Shouldn't your starter win 20% of your teams wns? Most teams use five starters so logic would say that a 20% total makes sense and us average to slightly above average.
Hernandez HAS won 20% of his team's starts. 13 wins out of 65. 13/65 x 100 = exactly 20%. If he has won any more than what he has it would be a hall of fame season. It's the fact his team can't score runs is the issue.
Seattle's runs scored in Hernandez's last few starts; 1, 3, 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 0, 0, 1, 4, 0
One game with 4 runs, one with 3.....and the rest? Yeah sure. You put C.C. in the M's and I don't know if he wins 20% of his games. You put Hernandez on the Yankees this year and he'd probably win 25.
Originally posted by StaggerLee
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball.
Stagger, I see you're from St. Louis. I want to point out three things;
1) Not everyone has one of the greatest hitters ever in their line up.
2) Hernandez can't even help his own cause on offense due to the DH.
3) Wins are a team stat above all else. ERA is a good stat, as if your teammates screw up it is not affected. But wins? Plase. | Big Bad
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| #14 Posted on 1.10.10 1413.14
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1417.03 |
I give it to Price because pitching in games that are meaningful after mid April has some value.
The Yankees and Rays have had playoff spots clinched since about mid-May. Price and Sabathia hasn't exactly been pitching under major pressure either. As long as you're in the postseason, doesn't really matter if you're a division winner or the wild card.
Originally posted by StaggerLee
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball.
Wins are a meaningless stat. A pitcher has little control over whether he 'wins' or loses a game. When your team is only giving you about a run of support each start, how can you be blamed for your win-loss record?
| JayJayDean
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| #15 Posted on 1.10.10 1421.22
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1421.32 | Originally posted by StaggerLee
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball.
Yes, shame on a pitcher being "one game over .500" on a team that is THIRTY-SEVEN GAMES UNDER .500. He is clearly not the best. | El Nastio
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| #16 Posted on 1.10.10 1428.26
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1428.51 | Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by StaggerLee
That being said any pitcher which is one game over. 500 isn't the best pitcher in baseball.
Yes, shame on a pitcher being "one game over .500" on a team that is THIRTY-SEVEN GAMES UNDER .500. He is clearly not the best.
Come on now JJD, lets be real. An offense like the M's have and they really should be 50!
Anyway, here's a nice little tidbit from Tom Verducci;
Myth: He is a sabermetric creation, a candidacy based on esoteric stats.
Truth: How's this for bubble-gum card mainstream: he leads the league in ERA, innings and strikeouts. Since they started handed out the Cy in 1956, there have been only 10 times when a pitcher led in all three categories. In every case the guy won the Cy.
(Uh-oh. Jered Weaver of the Angels could pass him for the strikeout title with four Ks tonight in Texas. Sadly, the Mariners are not letting Hernandez make his scheduled start Sunday.)
Myth: The AL West is a joke. Imagine if he had to pitch in the AL East.
Truth: He is 5-1 with a 0.63 ERA in seven starts against the AL East. Imagine that.
Myth: He doesn't have enough wins.
Truth: He has more wins and a better ERA against teams .500 or better (10-7, 2.21) than 21-game winner CC Sabathia (7-3, 3.74).
Myth: He doesn't "know how to win games."
Truth: Do you know how freakishly rare it is to post an ERA under 2.30 over at least 34 starts and have just 13 wins to show for it? It has happened only once in baseball history: Walter Johnson went 13-25 for the last-place Washington Senators in 1909, smack in the deadball era. (Go ahead: try to tell me the Greatest Pitcher Ever didn't know how to win games.) So you're looking at once-a-century kind of buzzard's luck, not some lack of skill about "knowing how to win."
Myth: He pitched with no pressure.
Truth: With that offense, Hernandez pretty much knew this every time he took the ball: you give up a third run, you lose. The Mariners scored two runs or less in 15 of his starts. (They went 3-12 in those games). The Yankees scored two runs or less in seven of Sabathia's starts (1-6) and the Rays scored two or less in nine of David Price's starts (2-7).
Myth: His innings were meaningless.
Truth: What's more important to a manager running a game than a pitcher who gets his team off the field without a run scoring as many times as possible? Hernandez has done that more times than any pitcher in more than a decade. Hernandez has thrown 209 scoreless innings -- the most since Randy Johnson (252) in 1999.
Myth: He would have won more games if he pitched better.
Truth: Hernandez became only the seventh pitcher in the past quarter century to post 30 quality starts. All of the previous six won the Cy Young Award.
| JayJayDean
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| #17 Posted on 1.10.10 1450.13
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1450.52 | Originally posted by El Nastio
Anyway, here's a nice little tidbit from Tom Verducci
Here's a nice one from Jayson Stark.
The Mariners are doing all this even though one of their lineup spots is occupied by a fellow who leads the league in hits (the one, the only Ichiro). At least that helps explain how the guy who leads the American League in hits has somehow scored fewer runs (72) than the man who is last in the National League in hits (that .198-hitting Mark Reynolds, who has scored 79), among qualifiers for the batting title. | BigDaddyLoco
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| #18 Posted on 1.10.10 1508.33
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1509.14 | Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by El Nastio
Anyway, here's a nice little tidbit from Tom Verducci
Here's a nice one from Jayson Stark.
The Mariners are doing all this even though one of their lineup spots is occupied by a fellow who leads the league in hits (the one, the only Ichiro). At least that helps explain how the guy who leads the American League in hits has somehow scored fewer runs (72) than the man who is last in the National League in hits (that .198-hitting Mark Reynolds, who has scored 79), among qualifiers for the batting title.
That's embarrassing.
King Felix gets my vote. If we are going to give it to the guy with the most wins every year, they should just change the name of the award to 'guy with the most wins every year'.
(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 1.10.10 1613) | Joseph Ryder
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| #19 Posted on 1.10.10 1736.16
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1738.17 | Ohhh this thread has warmed my heart.
As someone living in Seattle (though not a Mariners fan by any means), I distinctly recall last year's Cy Young arguments around town, most obviously declaring Felix the deserving pitcher over Greinke due to his 19 wins, even though Greinke had him beat in more or less every other category that existed. I remember thinking how very possible it'd be for Hernandez to find himself on an anemic offensive team, perhaps as soon as 2010, and whether M's fans would sing the same tune when that day came. Of course they did/are not. Not that I blame them. But at least now they know, right?
The problem is...today's Yankee fans cannot really sympathize and likely will not have to sympathize in the foreseeable future. Their pitchers are always gamers who know how to win...not merely good pitchers with great run support. I truly think that's what it will take for that admittedly large base to "get it"...and until then the media drumbeat will play along to appease the largest demographic in baseball.
But hey, in 2010 a whole ton of northwesterners (and a handful of non-northeasterners) learned wins aren't very meaningful as a pitching stat. Progress is being made. | The Game
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| #20 Posted on 1.10.10 1801.37
Reposted on: 1.10.17 1802.00 | Originally posted by Peter The Hegemon
I agree. Felix has been the best.
Yankees announcer/ESPN New York radio host Michael Kay has been repeatedly and loudly arguing that Sabathia should win because a great pitcher can find a way to win; that there's an important skill to bearing down when you're getting little run support and keeping your team ahead (but not necessarily pitching your best) when you do get support. I do think there's some truth to that--so I looked to see whether CC was actually doing that. He's not. I looked at their team's record in 1- and 2-run games. The Yankees when Sabathia is pitching are 5-5 in such close games. The Mariners when Hernandez pitches are 9-7 in such close games. If you just go by decisions, Sabathia is 4-2 and Hernandez 5-2. So I don't see where Sabathia is doing anything special to win more games than Hernandez; he's just pitching for a better team.
If I had a vote, it would be Hernandez 1, Price 2, and then I'd have to think about whether Buchholz or Sabathia gets 3. Sabathia has been good, but he hasn't been the best.
(edited by Peter The Hegemon on 1.10.10 1336)
(edited by Peter The Hegemon on 1.10.10 1346)
As I mentioned, I believe the Cy Young is also the MVP of pitching but this is a very good point. Michael Kay said and argued that a great pitcher can find a way to win which may be partially true but at the same time, if you were to put CC Sabathia in Seattle with their low run support, he would probably have less wins than Felix based on that Felix is statistically the best pitcher in the majors or the very least, top 5 for sure.
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