Kawshen
Liverwurst Level: 75
Posts: 1173/1201 EXP: 3750658 For next: 76263
Since: 2.1.02 From: Bronx, NY
Since last post: 5402 days Last activity: 3662 days
| #1 Posted on 22.5.07 0908.32 Reposted on: 22.5.14 0909.01 | Time for the probabilities in the Greg Oden/Kevin Durant sweepstakes....
Memphis: 46.5% chance of pick #1 or #2 Boston: 38.7% Milwaukee: 31.33% Atlanta: 24.49% Seattle: 18.45% Portland: 11.33% Minnesota: 11.33% Charlotte: 4.13%
New York Chicago: 4.13% Sacramento: 3.92% Indiana: 1.75% Philadelphia: 1.53% New Orleans: 1.3% LA Clippers: 1.09%
(edited by Kawshen on 22.5.07 1008) Promote this thread! | | DJ FrostyFreeze
Scrapple Level: 119
Posts: 2456/3467 EXP: 18396152 For next: 533194
Since: 2.1.02 From: Hawthorne, CA
Since last post: 137 days Last activity: 137 days
| #2 Posted on 22.5.07 1003.08 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1003.49 | Originally posted by Kawshen
New York Chicago: 4.13%
That must've hurt. Sorry about that. | JayJayDean
Scrapple Level: 136
Posts: 3011/4750 EXP: 29501149 For next: 595843
Since: 2.1.02 From: Seattle, WA
Since last post: 2984 days Last activity: 2562 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #3 Posted on 22.5.07 1024.47 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1025.05 | Originally posted by Kawshen Seattle: 18.45%
My fingers and toes are crossed. | dunkndollaz
Banger Level: 106
Posts: 2087/2658 EXP: 12348114 For next: 323870
Since: 3.1.02 From: Northern NJ
Since last post: 1648 days Last activity: 1104 days
| #4 Posted on 22.5.07 1112.06 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1113.37 | Originally posted by DJ FrostyFreeze
Originally posted by Kawshen
New York Chicago: 4.13%
That must've hurt. Sorry about that.
As a knicks fan, I just know that one of these 19 balls is going to wind up in the 1, 2 or 3 spot. Damn you Zeke | Reverend J Shaft
Toulouse Level: 75
Posts: 520/1235 EXP: 3779065 For next: 47856
Since: 25.6.03 From: Home of The Big House
Since last post: 1438 days Last activity: 21 days
| #5 Posted on 22.5.07 1240.40 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1241.16 | Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by Kawshen Seattle: 18.45%
My fingers and toes are crossed.
Boston: 38.7%
So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.
(And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)
(edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344) | Mr. Boffo
Scrapple Level: 124
Posts: 1966/3844 EXP: 21369003 For next: 467659
Since: 24.3.02 From: Oshkosh, WI
Since last post: 3895 days Last activity: 3856 days
| #6 Posted on 22.5.07 1313.25 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1315.14 | I could be the only one who cares about the mathematics involved, but it's not making sense to me.
Memphis has a 250/1000 chance of being the #1 pick. Boston has a 199/1000 chance. Let's say Boston gets it. Doesn't that mean that Memphis has a 250/801 chance (because they redraw if Boston gets picked again) of being #2?
Basically, it seems to me that if a team doesn't get picked, their odds of getting the next pick should increase (because that's one less team involved). But on wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery ) Memphis' odds of getting the 2nd pick are less (which matches the 46.5% Kawshen gives). | Reverend J Shaft
Toulouse Level: 75
Posts: 521/1235 EXP: 3779065 For next: 47856
Since: 25.6.03 From: Home of The Big House
Since last post: 1438 days Last activity: 21 days
| #7 Posted on 22.5.07 1348.47 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1349.11 | (deleted by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1615) | Guru Zim
SQL Dejection Administrator Level: 152
Posts: 4422/6207 EXP: 44131906 For next: 169856
Since: 9.12.01 From: Bay City, OR
Since last post: 8 days Last activity: 13 hours
| ICQ: | |
| Y!: | |
|
| #8 Posted on 22.5.07 1406.18 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1406.18 | OK, there is a problem here:
Do you want to know the probability of something happening (which is determined in advance) or do you want to know the chance that, Knowing Teams A, B, C, and D are already picked - what are the odds that my team comes up next?
Most people actually don't want to know the probability of a team getting a spot - they want to know the odds at each iteration of the pick.
If you want to know the latter, you take out the total number of balls for the teams that have already gotten a choice. So if it is pick #3 and #1 had 200 balls and #2 had 199, then you would look at your team's # of balls / (total balls - 399). That isn't the same as the probability that they would get the #3 pick if you tried to figure it out before the event started. | edoug
Summer sausage Level: 48
Posts: 218/447 EXP: 810168 For next: 13380
Since: 13.2.04 From: Maine
Since last post: 3206 days Last activity: 176 days
| #9 Posted on 22.5.07 1457.38 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1459.01 | Originally posted by Reverend J Shaft
Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by Kawshen Seattle: 18.45%
My fingers and toes are crossed.
Boston: 38.7%
So are mine... but probably for the opposite outcome.
(And mostly thanks to people like Bill Simmons, who wrote this HI-larious piece, explaining why his beloved Celtics DESERVE the 1st or 2nd pick. Totally unbiased, of course.)
(edited by Reverend J Shaft on 22.5.07 1344)
Imagine if the Celtics don't get a top 2 pick and they fire Rivers. It may not be the most sporting or ethical thing to do but he won too many losable games. Especially to the Spurs | JayJayDean
Scrapple Level: 136
Posts: 3012/4750 EXP: 29501149 For next: 595843
Since: 2.1.02 From: Seattle, WA
Since last post: 2984 days Last activity: 2562 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #10 Posted on 22.5.07 1955.27 Reposted on: 22.5.14 1959.01 | Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by Kawshen Seattle: 18.45%
My fingers and toes are crossed.
FUCK YEAH!!!!!!! | Kawshen
Liverwurst Level: 75
Posts: 1174/1201 EXP: 3750658 For next: 76263
Since: 2.1.02 From: Bronx, NY
Since last post: 5402 days Last activity: 3662 days
| #11 Posted on 22.5.07 2001.55 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2005.00 | Results:
1. Portland 2. Seattle 3. Atlanta 4. Memphis 5. Boston 6. Milwaukee 7. Minnesota 8. Charlotte 9. Chicago (via New York) whew... 10. Sacramento 11. Atlanta (via Indiana) 12. Philadelphia 13. New Orleans 14. LA Clippers | ekedolphin
Scrapple Level: 147
Posts: 3484/5747 EXP: 39237380 For next: 200815
Since: 12.1.02 From: Indianapolis, IN; now residing in Suffolk, VA
Since last post: 490 days Last activity: 14 days
| #12 Posted on 22.5.07 2014.03 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2015.11 | The Celtics get their hearts broken again... | odessasteps
Scrapple Level: 140
Posts: 2439/5065 EXP: 32483179 For next: 803308
Since: 2.1.02 From: MD, USA
Since last post: 3571 days Last activity: 3538 days
| #13 Posted on 22.5.07 2025.51 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2028.26 | Originally posted by ekedolphin The Celtics get their hearts broken again...
Simmons' pre-lottery column was pretty funny.
I can imagine what tomorrow's will be like. | It's False
Scrapple Level: 151
Posts: 1927/6155 EXP: 43059069 For next: 237507
Since: 20.6.02 From: I am the Tag Team Champions!
Since last post: 2199 days Last activity: 581 days
| #14 Posted on 22.5.07 2040.46 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2041.00 | If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!
And so much for the Grizz and Celtics. Now that they don't have Durant or Oden to fall back on, it'll be up to the GM's to keep them afloat. Maybe this is the year that Pau Gasol gets dealt. | JayJayDean
Scrapple Level: 136
Posts: 3013/4750 EXP: 29501149 For next: 595843
Since: 2.1.02 From: Seattle, WA
Since last post: 2984 days Last activity: 2562 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #15 Posted on 22.5.07 2044.21 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2044.55 | Originally posted by It's False If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!
I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.
I predict Simmons will live here within nine months. | DrewDewce
Bratwurst Level: 80
Posts: 815/1403 EXP: 4735718 For next: 47271
Since: 2.1.02 From: The Derby City
Since last post: 1668 days Last activity: 742 days
| | Y!: | |
|
| #16 Posted on 22.5.07 2117.23 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2118.15 | So, will Portland get killed for taking the big guy *this* time? (Bowie/Jordan v. Oden/Durant)
Of course not, but I'm just glad my Sonics snagged the 2nd pick and will be happy with whomever we draft. Not quite the sneak-in that it was when we got Gary Payton back in '90 despite being the "best" of the lottery teams, but good news for a franchise that could definitely use some.
Keep 'em in Seattle!!!!!!!! Let's go Seattle Supersonics!!!!!!! | redsoxnation
Scrapple Level: 165
Posts: 5564/7534 EXP: 58188712 For next: 747093
Since: 24.7.02
Since last post: 3923 days Last activity: 3923 days
| #17 Posted on 22.5.07 2135.17 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2137.21 | Originally posted by JayJayDean
Originally posted by It's False If I'm Seattle, I'm hoping Portland goes with Kevin Durant. A Ray Lewis/Greg Oden combo could be huge!
I think not. The Sonics can draft Durant and do a sign-and-trade for Rashard, and maybe get a couple of better pieces back. Plus, Durant will be cheaper than Rashard so that should help the cap situation, which isn't *bad* but it's not really that great, either.
I predict Simmons will live here within nine months.
Don't you mean Simmons will be living in Oklahoma City in 9 months? Sorry. Time to join hands with Pieman as we walk into the chopper blades. As for the Bowie comparison: No one has ever killed Houston for taking the big man Olajuwon over Jordan and they actually had a 7'4" center already in place.
(edited by redsoxnation on 22.5.07 2236) | StingArmy
Andouille Level: 95
Posts: 681/2118 EXP: 8516982 For next: 151656
Since: 3.5.03 From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey
Since last post: 2957 days Last activity: 549 days
| #18 Posted on 22.5.07 2216.42 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2217.46 | As a longtime Hawks fan, watching this lottery was like watching a Game 7 for me. I was going ballistic with every pick knowing what was at stake (i.e., Top 3 Or Bust). I totally forgot about getting Indiana's pick, which made tonight just that much sweeter. Obviously I would have preferred getting the #1 or #2, but not even Billy Knight could fuck up a #3. We need a PG badly, and that's been the case for 5+ years. His only choices are getting Mike Conley or duping Portland into trading their #1 for our #3 and #11. If we end up with Corey Brewer or Acie Law, somebody's gonna have to die.
Speaking of Portland, holy shit that team is going to be good. My boy Jarrett Jack is going to be rewarded handsomely, QBing what could be the league's #1 frontcourt next season. Assists + 3? Sounds about right.
- StingArmy | CajunMan
Boudin blanc No longer registered Level: 103
Posts: 1171/2483 EXP: 11149386 For next: 322059
Since: 2.1.02 From: Give me a Title shot!
Since last post: 4543 days Last activity: 3680 days
| #19 Posted on 22.5.07 2305.34 Reposted on: 22.5.14 2305.47 | Watching Rivers and Ainge reaction was priceless. I wonder if they are worried about their jobs yet. | Quezzy
Scrapple Level: 119
Posts: 2401/3517 EXP: 18790499 For next: 138847
Since: 6.1.02 From: Pittsburgh, PA
Since last post: 1908 days Last activity: 1907 days
| #20 Posted on 23.5.07 0326.18 Reposted on: 23.5.14 0327.48 | I understand that Oden and Durant are the prizes of this draft but if the Hawks do go with a point guard and get Conley with the third pick then that means the Grizzlies or Hawks get Al Horford, that's still pretty damn good. Horford is a beast, will be a starter his whole career and is probably more ready mentally than Oden and more ready physically than Durant. Really the first 10 picks could all be really good players. I understand Oden and Durant are supposed to be franchise players but missing out on them isn't the end of the world. |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |