Is it just me, or are there a lot of mediocre football teams in the NFL today? The whole NFC West, AFC South and AFC West, half the AFC North and NFC North ... some of the teams in those divisions may be considered to be trending up (specifically I'm thinking of the Rams), but overall it seems to me like the distinction between the haves and the have-nots is as alive as ever in the NFL today, even if the league faked us all into thinking otherwise for a few years there.
Anyway, so last year, in the preseason, I correctly predicted that the Packers would win the Super Bowl. There may be other people here who claim to have made that pick, like hansen9j, but I assure you he is just a Packer fanboy who obviously can't live up to my very scientific and thoughtful analytical skillz. What I'm saying is, you can take all this to the bank. Here's how it's all going down in 2011, by order of finish, with Wild Card teams in italics:
AFC East New England Patriots New York Jets Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills
AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee Titans
AFC West San Diego Chargers Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
NFC East Philadelphia Eagles Dallas Cowboys New York Giants Washington Redskins
NFC North Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears Detroit Lions Minnesota Vikings
NFC South Atlanta Falcons Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints Carolina Panthers
NFC West St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Arizona Cardinals
Super Bowl: New England Patriots over Green Bay Packers
Various thoughts:
- Maybe I'm just buying into the media storylinez, but I think the lockout favors veteran teams with solid leadership, which in my mind says "Tom Brady." I don't think Haynsworth makes much a difference one way or the other for the Pats, but I think Ochocinco is a positive acquisition for them. I also still am not convinced that Rex Ryan is a detriment to the Jets rather than an asset. He's a loudmouth loser who lucked into the head coaching gig for a super-talented team, but hasn't been able to back up his bravado. No division titles, no Super Bowl trips, but hey, his team beat the Patriots in the playoffs once, so good on him. I guess.
- Yes, I am actually predicting (nay, guaranteeing) that the Texans win the division and the Colts miss the playoffs. For one thing, the Colts last year did NOT look very good to me. Sure, they won 10 games, but they didn't deserve it, and them losing in the first round of the playoffs was just about the least shocking playoff outcome ever. Add in Manning's lingering injury, and I think this is the year it finally falls totally apart for them. Manning's great and all that, but he can't always win this division by himself, which is what I basically felt like he did last season.
- I, like a lot of people I'm sure, think this "dream team" nonsense surrounding the Eagles is pretty absurd, primarily the fault of a bunch of ESPN losers excited to finally be back to something familiar rather than the legal mumbo jumbo of the lockout. But they're definitely the favorites to repeat as division champs. It all depends on Michael Vick's ability to repeat his feats from last year, not Nnamdi Asomugha. I also like the Cowboys to rebound ... I can't give specific reasons, I just think they way underachieved last year. I still think there's talent on that team.
- Aaron Rodgers is, for my money, the best quarterback in the league today. He's smart, mobile, tough, creative, and a great leader. Jay Cutler is pretty good too, but I don't think he inspires his teammates the way Rodgers does, and I don't think the Bears have quite as much talent around Cutler as the Packers do Rodgers. I think the Packers are no doubt the team to beat in the NFC, regardless of how much hype surrounds the Eagles.
- I think the playoff loss to the Seahawks last year was a sign that the Saints are on the decline (if you can use that term to describe a four-year period that goes: no playoffs; Super Bowl; first-round playoff loss; no playoffs); perhaps a better term is "exposed as a flash in the pan." I really don't know if I expect the last wild card spot to go to the Bucs or Giants, but Josh Freeman really seems like a special player to me, and the Bucs have young, blossoming playmakers at other key positions too, so they seem like a team poised to explode. I don't put too much stock in their supposedly weak schedule last season, because I think that's a pretty overrated factor in the NFL personally.
AFC East New England Patriots New York Jets (WC) Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins
The division is all Pats and Jets and I think the Ellis acquisition puts the Pats over the top. Both teams will make the playoffs. The Bills weren't terrible towards the end last year, so between that and Miami going with Chad Henne and Matt Moore as their QB's, I'm picking Miami to finish last here.
AFC North Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals
No surprises here, as both the Steelers and Ravens are stocked to the teeth. I feel really bad for Marvin Lewis, being given one last chance to make the playoffs right before the team takes every single workable piece away from him.
AFC South Jacksonville Jaguars Indianapolis Colts (WC) Houston Texans Tennessee Titans
The Texans are always hyped to start the season, but never end up going anywhere in the end. I don't expect anything to change here. The Jags made a hell of a run before falling apart to end the season and I think they'll be a lot more consistent this year.
AFC West San Diego Chargers Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos
Philip Rivers is the best QB in football right now and this team should have no problem making the playoffs, assuming Vincent Jackson can stop being an asshole long enough to actually play and win games. Those defensive upgrades are dynamite...assuming Bob Sanders can stay healthy, which is never a guarantee. As for the Raiders, it's one step forward, ten steps back, as per usual.
NFC East Philadelphia Eagles New York Giants Dallas Cowboys Washington Redskins
The Eagles are good, but I don't know why anyone other than ESPN talking heads would call them a dream team. They'll win the division easy, though. If Washington's season ends without the fans riding Mike Shanahan out of town on a rail upon finding out that Donovan McNabb and Albert Haynesworth made the Pro Bowl, I'll be disappointed.
NFC North Green Bay Packers Minnesota Vikings (WC) Detroit Lions Chicago Bears
This is the hardest division to call, except for the division winner. Now that the Vikings have a full season with a QB and coach that they actually want to play for, I think they'll rebound from last year. The Bears will have Jay Cutler questions all year and that's going to kill them.
NFC South New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay Buccaneers (WC) Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers
The Saints will return to form this year, while Atlanta will buckle under the pressure of being an NFC favorite. The Bucs feel like they're due to fall back to earth, but I don't see it just yet. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt.
NFC West St. Louis Rams Arizona Cardinals San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks
The Rams surprise everyone by being better than they look. The Cardinals surprise everyone when Kevin Kolb becomes a Pro Bowl QB. The Seahawks surprise no one when they follow their 7-9 record with a 5-11 stinker.
Either Ocho or Heynsworth or both are not going to work out. Even with the Ellis deal, the Pats are going to get steamrolled by the Jets.
AFC North 3.Steelers Browns Ravens Bengals
Even though I should account for the Super Bowl hangover, the Steelers didn't lose anyone huge in Free Agency while Ravens lost some great pieces. Not sold and probably never will be on Flacco. I like Colt and they have a great RB. Brown miss the playoffs by one game.
AFC South 2.Colts 5.Jags Texans Titans
While they didn't do much the Colts keep their primary pieces in place. Jags made some good moves, but I still don't like their QB.
AFC West 4. KC San Diego Raiders Broncos
Call me crazy, but I like KC. They put up a decent effort last year. The sicking part is if Al Davis wasn't you know all Al Davis, I could see them winning this division.
NFC East 1.Eagles Cowboys Redskins Giants
The Giants seem to be imploding. Eagles are the new Miami Heat, no really they are not, but they made the most moves, so NFL logic says they get into the playoffs or self destruct. This went from the greatest division to one of the weaker divisions in football.
NFC North 2. Packers 5. Vikings Lions Bears
Its a good day in America when the black and blue division has some legit Super Bowl contenders. Even though they beat each other up, they should handle the rest of the league.
NFC South 3. Atlanta 6. New Orleans Bucs Panthers
While, I like the Bucs, both Atlanta and New Orleans have too many weapons. This is a great division and it intrigues the hell out of me.
NFC West 4. Seahawks Rams Cards 49ers.
While people are impressed with some of the moves, I am not. Kolb has shown me nothing. 49ers disassemble and Rams will miss this by one game. Pete Carroll is a master motivator and add some real weapons. Yes, the QB is a question mark, but he should be ready for prime time.
Jets over Falcons. Ryan gets his win and won't shut up ever about it.
The Wee Baby Sheamus.
Twitter: @realjoecarfley its a bit more toned down there. A bit.
This season will be a crapshoot. The abbreviated free agency period, the shortened training camps....this, more than most NFL seasons, will just come down to who can stay healthy. It's very possible, or even probable, that the 'best' team doesn't emerge until Week 12 or 13 since that's when they finally get their sea legs under them.
AFC East: Jets, Patriots*, Bills, Dolphins AFC North: Steelers, Ravens*, Browns, Bengals AFC South: Titans, Colts, Jaguars, Texans AFC West: Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Broncos
Super Bowl: Packers over Ravens
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." --- Bart Giamatti, on baseball
Dallas and Minnesota will be better than a lot of people seem to think. Bucs and Chiefs will fall away a bit. Steelers will suffer the Super Bowl hangover but they get to play eight games against the combined 'might' of Cleveland, Cincinnati and the NFC West so they'll still make the playoffs.
Pats win Super Bowl. Buffalo win Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
God this season looks depressing. Therefore, I shall selfishly pick my favorite teams to be winners and my least favorite teams to be losers with no other reasoning whatsoever.
AFC EAST Jets Dolphins Bills Patriots
AFC NORTH Bengals Steelers Browns Ravens
AFC SOUTH Colts Titans Texans Jaguars
AFC WEST Broncos (then tied for last with their only wins being in games against each other...) Chiefs Chargers Raiders
NFC EAST Giants Cowboys Redskins Eagles
NFC NORTH Packers Vikings Bears Lions
NFC SOUTH Buccaneers Panthers Falcons Saints
NFC WEST Seahawks Cardinals Rams 49ers
Your Super Bowl will be the Colts and the Giants because brother-vs-brother would make for great television, which is far more important than actual talent.
AFC SOUTH Texans (4) Jaguars Colts (I think Peyton doesn't last past 6 games, and without him, the Colts fold) Titans
AFC WEST Chargers (3) Raiders Chiefs Broncos
NFC East Eagles (2) Cowboys (6) Redskins Giants
NFC NORTH Packers (1) Lions Vikings Bears
NFC SOUTH Falcons (3) Saints (5) Bucs Panthers
NFC WEST Seahawks (4) Rams Cardinals 49ers
Super Bowl- Jets over Eagles
"Put on your helmets, we'll be reaching speeds of 3!" "It was nice of you to give that dead woman another chance." "All right, look alive everybody...oh sorry Susan."- MST3K: Space Mutiny Click Here (myspace.com)
(edited by BOSsportsfan34 on 11.8.11 1913) "John McCain ran for president in 2000. Why couldn't we have elected him then? When he was sane." - Lewis Black
Gotta take the Jets, like usual. Pats still look like the elite team in the AFC (it is Brady, it is Belichick) and will be tough to beat, however not impossible. Bills go nowhere en route to Toronto and the Dolphins haven't gelled.
NORTH
Steelers (1) Ravens Browns Bengals
Reigning AFC Champs haven't lost a step. The Ravens offseason moves seem like plugging holes in a sinking ship, though I stand to be corrected. Ohio weeps for football this year (sorry, Ohio).
SOUTH
Texans (4) Colts (6) Jaguars Titans
Houston finally surmounts Indy, but Peyton Manning just flat out knows how to win. Jacksonville deals with blackouts, small gates, and no QB. Jeff Fisher gets the axe after this year.
WEST
Chargers (3) Chiefs Raiders Broncos
San Diego is the defacto team due to an overall lack of talent in KC and new coaches in Denver and Oakland, despite A.J. Smith and Norv.
National Football Conference
EAST
Eagles (2) Cowboys (5) Giants Redskins
Philly maybe hyped, but they are stacked with talent and have a coach who knows what he's doing. Dallas's offense doesn't thrill me, though their defensive players seemed tailor made for lots of pressure Ryan style. The Giants O Line is shaky due to losses and they're still a linebacker away from being an elite D. Washington, well, I have trouble taking them over some CFL and Arena teams at this point...
NORTH
Packers (1) Lions Bears Vikings
World Champion Green Bay is still in form from last year, Aaron Rodgers now has a ring to add to his resume, and that linebacking corps is SICK, SICK, SICK. Detroit misses the postseason on Matthew Stafford's arm despite a rediculous defensive line (perhaps the best I've seen). Chicago doesn't make it far due to a mediocre offensive line in a division chock full o' pass rushers and Minnesota went all in last year and are kind of out of chips.
SOUTH
Falcons (3) Saints (6) Buccaneers Panthers
Hotlanta gets it done again with a stouter defense. New Orleans may have lost to Seattle in the opening round of the playoffs last year, but I think it was a fluke. Tampa does look promising, if not a year or two away from a legit run at the postseason, and Carolina is completely untested.
WEST Rams (4) Cardinals 49ers Seahawks
Sam Bradford is the future of elite quarterbacking in the league; he's the type of guy players will gravitate towards, and I could easily see Randy Moss coming back midseason to catch his throws (THAT isn't a prediction). Arizona is a one trick pony, albeit a strong pony with an incredible trick, and that is Kolb to Fitzgerald. I could see them taking the division as well if it weren't for the fact that I don't trust their defense, nor Kolb's arm when Fitzgerald is seeing double coverage. The 49ers are coming off the foundation left by their last coach, and may turn some heads, and as I've said before and I'll say again, Pete Carroll's idiocy is more complete than a balanced breakfast brought to you by Cheerios.
Playoffs
AFC
Patriots over Texans Chargers over Colts Patriots over Steelers Jets over Chargers Jets over Patriots
NFC
Saints over Falcons Cowboys over Rams Packers over Saints Cowboys over Eagles Packers over Cowboys
SUPERBOWL XLV
Jets over Packers... a boy can dream
(NOTE: Every year we do this, every year I have to look up how to spell Belichick.)
"Laugh and the world laughs with you. Frown and the world laughs at you." -Me.
AFC EAST 1. New England 2. NY Jets (wild card) 3. Miami 4. Buffalo
AFC NORTH 1. Pittsburgh 2. Baltimore (wc) 3. Cleveland 4. Cincinnati
AFC SOUTH 1. Indianapolis 2. Houston 3. Tennessee 4. Jacksonville
AFC WEST 1. San Diego 2. Kansas City 3. Denver 4. Oakland
NFC EAST 1. Philadelphia 2. Dallas (wc) 3. NY Giants 4. Washington
NFC NORTH 1. Green Bay 2. Chicago 3. Detroit 4. Minnesota
NFC SOUTH 1. New Orleans 2. Atlanta (wc) 3. Tampa Bay 4. Carolina
NFC WEST 1. St. Louis 2. Arizona 3. San Francisco 4. Seattle
Super Bowl - Patriots over Packers (I think the NFC comes down to home-field and I think the North is weaker than the East and South, giving the Pack the edge.)
Seattle gets Andrew Luck. They are going to be AWFUL.
Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....
*snip*
Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass. -- The Guinness. to Cerebus
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