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Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1082 days
Last activity: 879 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Release today. More info here:

Candidate: Sept 2003 %, April 2003 %, Jan 2003 %

Dean: 23, 6, 2

Gephardt: 17, 25, 19

Kerry: 11, 13, 11

Edwards: 6, 4, 5

Lieberman: 4, 9, 17

Kucinich: 2, 3, -

Mosley Braun: 1, 1, -

Graham: 1, 0.8, 0.3

Clark: 1, -, -

Sharpton: 0.3, 1, 2


Libererman is an interesting case of "oh how the mighty have fallen". Gephardt could get there if this momentum holds, but his favorability ratings are too high. The fact that Dean leads despite have 1/3 not being familiar with him is impressive, especially in the sense that he jumped from 6 percent and 4th place to 1st, hough that is a function of his unfamiliar rating dropping from 69 to 33.






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vsp
Andouille








Since: 3.1.02
From: Philly

Since last post: 2847 days
Last activity: 60 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
Wow, wow and WOW. Gephardt stumbling in IOWA is a shocker, as that's one of his bases. (Not that 17% +/- 4.5% is a terrible showing, but it's still going to send his people scrambling.)




"When WCW tries to be racy, it's generally about as light-heartedly entertaining as watching a man rape a woman in a chicken yard." -- Dark Cheetah
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3869 days
Last activity: 3868 days
#3 Posted on
Hm. If Dean hangs onto his respective leads in New Hampshire and Iowa, is this race over before it ever really begins?

He's gone from a 50/50 bet against Kerry (in my mind) to the clear frontrunner in a matter of weeks. Impressive.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1082 days
Last activity: 879 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I'll repeat what I've said in the past about Democratic races: the September frontrunner often loses and somebody comes from nowhere(i.e. not in the race or the 1-2% region) to win it. Just historical trends.



redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 292 days
Last activity: 292 days
#5 Posted on
    Originally posted by -proletarian-
    Hm. If Dean hangs onto his respective leads in New Hampshire and Iowa, is this race over before it ever really begins?

    He's gone from a 50/50 bet against Kerry (in my mind) to the clear frontrunner in a matter of weeks. Impressive.







If he were to follow up on Iowa and New Hampshire and run through South Carolina and Michigan, he would have to pull one of the all-time Super Tuesday chokes to blow the nomination at that point. But remember, Gephardt has alot of committments from at-large Congressional delegates already in his back pocket. If things break into a close race, that could be a very valuable asset for Gephardt to have in his back pocket.



Time to do a Red Sox pennant chase supply list: Arsenic: check. Cyanide: check. Booze: check. Fully loaded gun for full chamber Russian Roulette: check. Ok, I'm prepared, let the pennant race commence.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1082 days
Last activity: 879 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    But remember, Gephardt has alot of committments from at-large Congressional delegates already in his back pocket. If things break into a close race, that could be a very valuable asset for Gephardt to have in his back pocket.

And that makes Gephardt important even if he gets blown eliminated after Super Tuesday, because at that point in a razor thin race, he becomes the Kingmaker with those Superdelegates.



Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 1 day
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54

    I'll repeat what I've said in the past about Democratic races: the September frontrunner often loses and somebody comes from nowhere(i.e. not in the race or the 1-2% region) to win it. Just historical trends.


Wesley Clark?

Then again, if this story (Click Here (news.yahoo.com)) is true, Dean may be trying to head him off at the pass.




"When this bogus term alternative rock was being thrown at every '70s retro rehash folk group, we were challenging people to new sonic ideas. If some little snotty anarchist with an Apple Mac and an attitude thinks he invented dance music and the big rock group is coming into his territory, [that's] ridiculous." - Bono, 1997
-proletarian-
Chipolata








Since: 29.4.03

Since last post: 3869 days
Last activity: 3868 days
#8 Posted on
Say Wes Clark does indeed jump in, do you think the nomination is his?

And how sweet would the look on Hillary's face be on election night when the results come in and president-elect Clark comes to the podium to make his victory speech.....

-lol-

(edited by -proletarian- on 11.9.03 1603)
vsp
Andouille








Since: 3.1.02
From: Philly

Since last post: 2847 days
Last activity: 60 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
    Originally posted by -proletarian-
    Say Wes Clark does indeed jump in, do you think the nomination is his?


At the moment, ninety-five percent of America has no idea who Wesley Clark is. By comparison, Howard Dean's still far from a household name in many parts of the country, but he's famous like Schwarzenegger compared to Clark at this stage.

There is certainly time left for Clark to rectify that particular flaw before the primaries, but it's still a drawback at the moment.




"When WCW tries to be racy, it's generally about as light-heartedly entertaining as watching a man rape a woman in a chicken yard." -- Dark Cheetah
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1082 days
Last activity: 879 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I don'tthink Clark will win the nomination. He's got some rabid supporters though. Something is just off about Clark, not the least of which is the fact he wanted to turn US troops over to UN command. But there just seems to be something so...off about him.



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Just because Drudge links to a story doesn't make it untrue. It's his "exclusives" and "breaking stories" that one should be wary of.
- eviljonhunt81, Break Through (2004)
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