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The W - Basketball - YOUR 2009-1010 Free Agency Prediction Thread
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It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.28
Well, the season's over and what a season it was. But now that the smoke has cleared, it's time for a whole new cloud of smoke to appear. There are a gaggle of free agents available this offseason, headlined by some guy named LeBron. So where do they all go. Let's look at the more prominent ones:

LeBron James - He's just about got the entire NBA held hostage. Few teams are adding head coaches, GM vacancies are plentiful, and every free agent will stand pat until LeBron makes his decision. As glamorous as it would be to see him wind up in Chicago, I can't see him leaving Cleveland. To leave Cleveland before winning a title would be a major stain on his legacy. And why CAN'T he be a worldwide star from Cleveland? LeBron stays and signs for the absolute max deal that no other team can match. Whether they can attract a marquee coach and a few good free agents...well, that remains to be seen. There isn't a chance in hell he goes to New York or Los Angeles, no matter how badly the Knicks and Clippers want him.
PREDICTION: Cleveland

Dwayne Wade - He's the world's best consolation prize. Wade seemed pretty unhappy towards the end in Miami and I can't see Pat Riley bringing anyone in to satisfy him. Once the LeBron domino falls, the Bulls will fall all over themselves to bring Wade in. I don't think the Chicago native can resist the idea of a championship run with Rose and Noah.
PREDICTION: Chicago

Chris Bosh - With the Lakers having won another championship, there's one major item on the agenda aside from locking up Phil Jackson. They have to dump Andrew Bynum NOW! He's already unreliable and injury-prone and these playoffs have put a lot more miles on him, particularly playing Game 7 on a torn meniscus. The Lakers can easily sucker Toronto into a sign-and-trade and for as close as Bosh is to LeBron, I don't think he'll say no to the idea of a run with Kobe and Gasol, who (unlike James) are proven winners.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Lakers

Amare Stoudemire - Stoudemire would be wise to stay with Phoenix after a poor showing in that series against the Lakers. He won't, though, and he'll test the free agency market. Teams will make a run for him anyway and I see the Knicks picking him up to reunite him with Mike D'Antoni. Not a bad consolation prize, should they lose out on LeBron.
PREDICTION: New York

Dirk Nowitski - I think Dirk opts out, but he'll end up back with Dallas.
PREDICTION: Dallas

Joe Johnson - Joe Johnson doesn't deserve a max deal after that abysmal showing in the second round against Orlando. No team would be dumb enough to give him one. No team, except...
PREDICTION: Los Angeles Clippers

Carlos Boozer - Boozer's going to opt out, because he's got a history of going where the money is. I don't think Utah can afford to keep him and if New York gets Stoudemire, he won't fit there. I'm going to reach (and, of course, I'm reaching on ALL of these picks) and say he ends up with Washington, who has plenty of cap room to give him a big time deal.
PREDICTION: Washington

Ray Allen - He had a hell of a playoffs with Boston and he played out of his mind once the trade rumors started around the deadline. He had some terrible games in the Finals, but he also had a record night in Game 2 and nearly saved Game 7 with that clutch 3 towards the end. He's going to get a big deal and I wouldn't doubt that Mark Cuban signs him to entice Dirk to come back.
PREDICTION: Dallas

Shaquille O'Neal - WAAAAY past his prime and the Cleveland experiment failed miserably, but his name value will entice some team. The Nets have come up empty so far and I don't doubt that they'll give him one last year before he rides off into the sunset, more as a mentor to Brook Lopez than anything else. And hey, he'll sell tickets, at least.
PREDICTION: New Jersey.

so take your picks and if you've got any names to add to this list (Paul Pierce and Yao Ming could also be unleashed on the market and then there are the honorable mentions like David Lee and Rudy Gay), then go nuts. This free agent period should last a good long while.

(edited by It's False on 17.6.10 2106)


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CRZ
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.41
Here's a local blind item:
    Originally posted by Paul Allen at KFAN's Rube Chat (rubechat.kfan.com)
    speculation ...

    Post by KFAN Paul Allen on Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:11 pm

    not ground-breaking but it will be favors or johnson if we keep the four. zilcho chance the select cousins. those opinions are 100 percent accurate. And count on wall one and turner two and there will be no change.
    here's the bit ... i was sworn to secrecy by a very reliable source but there's going to be a story by a credible NBA writer for a major newspaper and supposedly very soon that will send your head spinning. if it plays out the way it was explained to me your wolves and one of the game's best will be tied together. if it doesn't hit the web within five days i will share said rumor, but until it goes public i cannot. hope you understand.
    if and or when this story/rumor emerges my over-under for views of said thread on this page is 4,000. and that might be light.
    off to the track.
He DID get 680 replies (and counting) out of just that.

{ Would you like to read even more? Analysis/paralysis at SBNation's Canis Hoopus (canishoopus.com) }




TheOldMan
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Since: 13.2.03
From: Chicago

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.85
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Post by KFAN Paul Allen on Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:11 pm

    not ground-breaking but it will be favors or johnson if we keep the four. zilcho chance the select cousins. those opinions are 100 percent accurate. And count on wall one and turner two and there will be no change.
    here's the bit ... i was sworn to secrecy by a very reliable source but there's going to be a story by a credible NBA writer for a major newspaper and supposedly very soon that will send your head spinning. if it plays out the way it was explained to me your wolves and one of the game's best will be tied together. if it doesn't hit the web within five days i will share said rumor, but until it goes public i cannot. hope you understand.
    if and or when this story/rumor emerges my over-under for views of said thread on this page is 4,000. and that might be light.
    off to the track.
He DID get 680 replies (and counting) out of just that.


Either this guy is inventing new slang, or my reading comprehension is slipping.

In any case, he shot down people guessing LeBron, Bosh, Wade, Chris Paul, Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay within the first five minutes of posting.

If there's going to be a credible NBA writer publishing a head spinning story on free agency, I'd think it would be Sam Smith of the Chicago Tribune. After he covered the Jordan run and the local team fell into Tim Floyd hell, writing wild trade scenarios became Smith's entire schtick.

All I know is that Tom Izzo isn't sure enough of LeBron to take the Cavs' job.

    Originally posted by It's False
    Dwayne Wade - He's the world's best consolation prize. Wade seemed pretty unhappy towards the end in Miami and I can't see Pat Riley bringing anyone in to satisfy him. Once the LeBron domino falls, the Bulls will fall all over themselves to bring Wade in. I don't think the Chicago native can resist the idea of a championship run with Rose and Noah.
    PREDICTION: Chicago


It's pretty well established locally that Wade wants no part of the hometown hero experience. Of course that's probably from sources like "credible NBA writer" Sam Smith and his hookah pipe.



BigDaddyLoco
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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.57
Lebron going to Chicago would be the biggest impact move, but the Bulls haven't always treated their top guys right in the past.

Clevland makes sense because it's the safest landing spot and if he doesn't win at all at least he will always be remembered for staying.

I think he goes to the Knicks though. The big lights, saving basketball in the big city, being allowed to run the Mike D'antoni offense plus he'll be playing along side his hand picked selection Chris Bosh and probably another quality player once the Eddy Curry expiring contract gets flipped. Then of course they will be able to back fill the roster with older vets who already made their money but want to play in NY with Lebron. Add the few bright spots the Knicks do have with Gallanari, Chandler, Douglas plus the interesting kid they picked up Bill Walker and you've got a legit team.

Wade stays and probably gets Amare to go along with him although they will still have nothing in the middle on defense.

Joe Johnson is the consolation prize that someone will pay way too much for, so I say Chicago.

Boozer I like the Washington prediction, but can also see him landing in New Jersey to go along with Brook Lopez in the middle.

Ray Allen and Rudy Gay get overpaid by teams that lost out on the magic of the big names.

David Lee is probably going to Toronto in a sign and trade, which will help murder their inside D. Lee going to the right team as a third option could be huge. Portland really should have taken a longer look on him last year.

redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.91
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Here's a local blind item:
      Originally posted by Paul Allen at KFAN's Rube Chat (rubechat.kfan.com)
      speculation ...

      Post by KFAN Paul Allen on Thu Jun 17, 2010 4:11 pm

      not ground-breaking but it will be favors or johnson if we keep the four. zilcho chance the select cousins. those opinions are 100 percent accurate. And count on wall one and turner two and there will be no change.
      here's the bit ... i was sworn to secrecy by a very reliable source but there's going to be a story by a credible NBA writer for a major newspaper and supposedly very soon that will send your head spinning. if it plays out the way it was explained to me your wolves and one of the game's best will be tied together. if it doesn't hit the web within five days i will share said rumor, but until it goes public i cannot. hope you understand.
      if and or when this story/rumor emerges my over-under for views of said thread on this page is 4,000. and that might be light.
      off to the track.
    He DID get 680 replies (and counting) out of just that.

    { Would you like to read even more? Analysis/paralysis at SBNation's Canis Hoopus (canishoopus.com) }






Since tied together doesn't mean heading to the Wolves, it could be Minnesota gets involved as the 3rd team in a potential Carmelo Anthony trade.
CRZ
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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.41
Yes, Allen backtracked today:
    Originally posted by Paul Allen (rubechat.kfan.com)
    i blew it. i took something from a new source and got everybody wound up and have been asked not to talk any further about it. i feel awful. there will be a day i may share the info and the story may still come out this weekend, then you'll understand where i was going, but now is not the time.
    encapsulated, i blew it, i am an idiot, i got everybody all riled up, wasted your time and feel terrible about it. i truly am very sorry and know i have lost rumor cred and am letting all of you down.
    again i am very sorry.
So that was 24 hours of fun. Think I'll just wait for next Thursday. :)

(edited by CRZ on 18.6.10 2028)


thecubsfan
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Since: 10.12.01
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
    Originally posted by BigDaddyLoco
    Lebron going to Chicago would be the biggest impact move, but the Bulls haven't always treated their top guys right in the past.


This always gets said but the people close to the Bulls very much dispute it.

When Wade made his comments along these lines a while back, ex-Bulls came out of the woodwork to disagree. The two people who probably don't feel right about how the Bulls treated him are probably Phil Jackson and Michael Jordan, but I think there it's more they didn't get the control of the team they wanted, not that they weren't paid. MJ got $62mil over his last two years, which is still more than a max deal today.

The real message is Wade wants people to come to Miami, has no plans on going to Chicago (the big idea during the season) and sees Chicago as a competitor. Wade was taking a shot at his competition (and the Bulls guys were sticking up for it for similar reasons. It's a game.)



thecubsfan.com - luchablog
CRZ
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.41
Here's something crazy from Mike Wells, Pacers beat writer for the Indianapolis Star:
    Originally posted by @Wells222
    T-Wolves turn down Pacers offer of the 10th pick for PG Jonny Flynn.
I'll leave it to you to decide how and what kind of "crazy" this idea was/is.

(edited by CRZ on 21.6.10 1718)


It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.28
Another round of crazy speculation:

Hornets' Paul draws interest as draft nears


    World Wide Wes has been pitching teams with salary-cap space that trading for New Orleans Hornets star Chris Paul(notes) will dramatically increase their chances of signing LeBron James(notes), multiple sources told Yahoo! Sports.


Because the NBA just isn't going to be ENOUGH of a game of musical chairs. Who can possibly offer anything worthwhile to New Orleans that would make them give up Paul anyway? Would Cleveland ship off Mo Williams? Would the Clippers offer Baron Davis and another guy? Do the Knicks HAVE anything to offer? Would the Nets part ways with Devin Harris, knowing he doesn't really get along with Avery Johnson, anyway? Is this just a ploy by World Wide Wes to get dopes like me to overanalyze every little possibility?

Yeah, maybe we should go with that last one.

EDIT: And it looks like the Hornets have turned down the Nets on the aforementioned Devin Harris and the 3rd pick for Paul. I'd have jumped on that one, personally, if I was the Hornets.

(edited by It's False on 22.6.10 1500)



Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me.
BigDaddyLoco
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.57
Donnie Walsh is suddenly talking up Joe Johnson and Amare. If this is who we get for the next five years with max money BigDaddyLoco might have a complete meltdown.

It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.29
    Originally posted by BigDaddyLoco
    Donnie Walsh is suddenly talking up Joe Johnson and Amare. If this is who we get for the next five years with max money BigDaddyLoco might have a complete meltdown.




Especially with the Nets talking about making a pitch for Wade and Bosh to pull in LeBron.

Aim higher, Donnie!




Perhaps it was the Noid who should have avoided me.
Oliver
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.13
A newspaper here in Canada is suggesting Bosh is heading to Chicago. (nationalpost.com)



2009-2010 WHL Fantasy League Champion!!!
TheOldMan
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Since: 13.2.03
From: Chicago

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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.86
So now we're down to about 12 hours to go before the game starts in earnest? As the rumors have drifted away from LeBron and Bosh to the Bulls, and more toward them both joining Wade in Miami (possibly enough to convince Pat Riley to come back down to courtside).. putting aside my Chicago rooting interests, I wonder if LeBron is just thinking something along the lines of:

'I just can't do this to the people of Cleveland.. not Chicago.. not Chicago again.'


So maybe letting the narrative settle on Chicago until the end, then going to Miami at the last minute, that would be a way for 'Bron to get out of Cleveland while limiting the 'he's a traitor' hard feelings of abandonment.

It's probably a one-off circumstance this year, based around a once-in-a-generation star.. but I also wonder if this is any good for the league in the long run. The appearance of James, Wade and Bosh sitting down to dinner and deciding the balance of power in the league for the next 6-8 years?

Will this become the new normal, teams and stars realizing that you need to get a "big 3" like the Celtics did, only basing your whole strategy around gutting your team so you can bring in 3 stars to go with your 9 CBA+ minimum salary guys? Sounds like a formula for a handful of title contenders each year, and a lot more teams like the Knicks and Nets stumbling around while waiting for the next chance to pitch free agents on all their lovely cap space.

One thing I still wonder about.. James can take the shorter, slightly lower-paying contract. (A) He makes it up in endorsements, and (B) maybe he only wants 3-4 years so he can play free agent all over again in case the new situation doesn't work out.

But all the rest of these guys? They're going to want max years, max money. And the only way to do that is sign and trade. So who has the massive cap space, AND the players to send back to these teams to make it worth Toronto's (or Atlanta's, or Phoenix's) effort to do the deal? If one team is offering future end-of-the-round draft picks (since their roster is currently gutted), and another team offers a decent player and a pick.. why wouldn't these teams losing stars say - take the deal we like, or just walk for less money?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I heard a quip on the radio this morning that I think sums up this whole situation - To the casual basketball fan, listening to all the speculation about these free agents?

It's turned into Basketball Favre.



StingArmy
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Since: 3.5.03
From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey

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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.35
I understand what you're saying about how LeBron leaving Cleveland for Chicago might conjure up bad memories of Jordan and the Bulls, but I get the feeling that if LeBron goes to Miami to be with Bosh and Wade he might end up pretty hated as well. It's one thing to leave and go to the highest bidder. In that situation it's not so much that he's abandoning Cleveland for another city, he's just going somewhere for money and a chance to win. Nothing personal, just business.

But if he goes to Miami he's probably taking a pay cut. And not only that, he's going to Miami specifically because it's Miami. It's the opposite of Cleveland in so many ways. He gets to be with friends and live and work and play in a much more cosmopolitan, glamorous city. Plus Cleveland basically wouldn't even be given the chance to compete for his services. I dunno, maybe it's just me but I'd think that sort of conspired plan would make a lot of Cleveland fans super pissed.

- StingArmy

p.s. - If Wade, Bosh, and James end up in Miami I am NOT looking forward to division games anymore. Miami + Orlando = Hawks' QQ for the foreseeable future.
StingArmy
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Since: 3.5.03
From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.35
(Sorry for the consecutive posts, but I'm going a completely different direction with this speculation so I thought it was worth it.)

So I was looking at the growing list of free agents and I'm not sure I knew Shaq was a free agent. Any chance he ends up somewhere as a third semi-big free agent along with two of the more heralded guys? Or hell, how about in Miami as Bosh's backup? Obviously he'd have to take a decent sized pay cut, but he seems to have loved Miami, so I wouldn't rule it out. Chalmers + Wade + James + Beasley + Bosh starting with Shaq coming off the bench isn't exactly the worst team of all time.

I'm also very interested in how Ray Allen might fit into this picture. Being a huge Ray Allen mark, I think him joining LeBron somewhere as that knockdown shooter who can be relied on the hit that open jumper when LeBron's being double teamed is a fantastic idea. You could also throw Dirk into that Ray Allen role.

What about this Paul Pierce? I'm not a fan of his at all, but I won't deny that he can be very valuable. Does he change the race to sign multiple big name free agents? And let's not forget Allen Iverson. I refuse to believe his career is going to end this way. He's not known for being unselfish by any means, but at this point I think there's a chance he understands he's going to have to take a reduced role if he wants to play for a contender.

I'm not sure how big-bodied guys like David Lee or Carlos Boozer or Amar'e Stoudemire fit into this. It could be just my skewed perception but they all really seem like consolation prizes to me. Even Amar'e, who a few years ago seemed like an unstoppable monster. I think he's a little too injury prone and he hasn't been the most coachable player either. I'm sure Chicago would be interested in any/all of their services depending on how things shake out with LeBron. I could also see two of those three winding up with the Knicks who at this point people aren't really talking about as contenders for LeBron or Wade.

I think the best situation for LeBron would be going to Chicago with Dirk. Dirk has proved he can't really be a #1 option but he'd be a SICK #2 option seeing as how he's an almost automatic 20/10 guy with an outside jumper. I'm not convinced LeBron and Wade can play together so if I was in LeBron's shoes, I'd look at Dirk as a more practical option. And while I love Chris Bosh to death (I was at GT during his only year in college) I'm not sure he's really earned the right to be considered the second-most valuable free agent in this year's class.

Finally, I have started to wonder if anyone's even thinking about the free agents of 2011 when making this year's plans. I'm not sure who all will be available, but I know Carmelo Anthony is currently in that group. Is it bad business to include him in your planning? Could the promise of pursuing him next year be enough to sign one of this year's crop of free agents?

- StingArmy
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.91
I'll throw the lunatic prediction out there: LeBron ends up a Laker in a sign and trade for Bynum/picks/others.

(edited by redsoxnation on 30.6.10 2224)
The Game
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Since: 5.5.09

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.34
2 hours to go before the biggest year in free agents comes available....

LeBron James; the biggest name on the free agent market and his phone will be ringing nonstop until he inks a deal. I do not see him playing with Dwayne Wade or Bosh (although all 3 are pretty good friends) but Cleveland gives him the max cash and stays for another few years and keeps the Cavs from the lottery.

Dwayne Wade; could the Heat afford to have a fourth of the men's Olympic team in Miami (Wade, James and Bosh)? Perhaps but not happening. I see Wade staying because Miami gets another player to help out Dwayne Wade. My prediction? Carlos Boozer.

Chris Bosh; Toronto is not doing a whole lot to build around one of the most consistent players in the last few years and so he will not stay. Miami will ink and keep Dwayne Wade but will add another player but not as good as Bosh (so Miami is full). What other team is clearing cap space but has a good guard? Chicago. The Bulls get a needed all-star big man to compliment the all-star guard with Derrick Rose.

Amare Stoudemire; With all the drama and speculation in Phoenix for awhile and now it ends. He goes somewhere where it will be rough and will not have a Steve Nash to help feed him the ball. Still, he averages his 20 a game and for the New Jersey Nets with new coach Avery Johnson.

Dirk Nowitzki; The Cowboys had Aikman, Smith and Irvin. The Stars had Mike Modano. The Mavs have and will keep the best shooting big man ever. Just as LeBron is important to Cleveland basketball, it is almost blasphemy to see Dirk anywhere else.

Joe Johnson; In the playoffs, he was a complete non-factor. In the regular season, he helped the Hawks get to the 50 win plateau in over a decade. Putting this year's playoffs behind, I will say he stays with the Hawks.

Ray Allen; The Big 3 consisted of Garnett, Pierce (I say he is staying by the way) and Ray Allen. Now the Big 3 will be Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. Where does Ray Allen go? I will also say he goes to Dallas and combines with Dirk to have a deadly shooting duo.

Shaq; Shaq's odometer reading will say, "Too many miles to count". Not many teams now will pick up the most dominant center for nearly 2 decades. I think he remains in Cleveland because any team thinking of contending will not waste its money on a soon-to-be retired Shaquille O'Neal and I am not sure if Shaq will play for a sub-par team.

On another note, there are other role players out there in the free agent market which would add nicely if a team picked up one or two marquee players and added at least 1 good role player. Every championship team has had its share of not just star players but a few role players that take some of the pressure off the main attractions.
It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.29
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    I'll throw the lunatic prediction out there: LeBron ends up a Laker in a sign and trade for Bynum/picks/others.


I see your lunatic prediction and raise you a lunatic prediction of my own. With two big money contracts coming off the books, another big money contract going into retirement but still viable as a trade chip until the retirement papers are signed, a team built to win NOW, and an elite coach announcing his return, I say that LeBron James ends up with the Celtics.

And if that happens, the disturbing sight you'll see on TV will be David Stern doing cartwheels.

(edited by It's False on 1.7.10 0036)



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lotjx
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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.59
My guess.

Wade stays

Bosch to Chicago

Boozer to Miami

Dirk stays in Dallas

Pierce to NJ

Stoudamire to Knicks

Joe Johnson stays in Atlanta

Shaq to Knicks

Ray stays in Boston

and Lebron waits and watches the pieces fall into place then makes a decision probably to stay in Cleveland. He doesn't want to follow the ghost of MJ in Chicago, he is not going to a rebuilding team like the Knicks and Nets plus he knows that a three star rotation will lead to problems in Miami or anywhere else. He stays in Cleveland where he will never win a championship due to his own ability of not getting it done in the playoffs.
SchippeWreck
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Since: 26.3.03
From: Glendale, CA

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.78
    Originally posted by lotjx
    Lebron waits and watches the pieces fall into place then makes a decision probably to stay in Cleveland.

No team is going to sign anyone until LeBron makes his move.



"It's magic! We don't need to explain it!"
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The entire first round at a glance: 1. Washington Wizards - John Wall (PG)(Kentucky) 2. Philadelphia 76ers - Evan Turner (SG)(Ohio State) 3. New Jersey Nets - Derrick Favors (PF)(Georgia Tech) 4. Minnesota Timberwolves - Wesley Johnson (SF)(Syracuse) 5....
- It's False, Its Draft Night! (2010)
Related threads: 2009-10 NBA FINALS: Schedule and prediction - 2009-10 NBA PLAYOFFS: CONFERENCE FINALS schedule and predictions - All-NBA teams announced - More...
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