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The W - Football - Week 17 Playoff Clinching Scenarios
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hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 11 hours
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.57
Via NFL.com (blogs.nfl.com)

WEEK 17 PLAYOFF PICTURE:

NFC

CLINCHED:
New Orleans — South division and a first-round bye.
Minnesota — North division.
Arizona — West division.
Philadelphia — playoff spot.
Green Bay — playoff spot.
Dallas — playoff spot.

ELIMINATED:
Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, NY Giants.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
New Orleans clinches home-field advantage:
(IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO MONDAY NIGHT)
1) NO win or tie
2) MIN loss or tie

(IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
New Orleans clinches home-field advantage.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Minnesota clinches home-field advantage:

(IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO)
1) MIN win + NO loss

Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
(IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO)
1) MIN win or tie
2) PHI loss or tie

(IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
2) MIN tie + PHI loss

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Arizona clinches a first-round bye:
(IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
1) ARI win + MIN loss + PHI loss

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Philadelphia clinches East division:
1) PHI win or tie

Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
(IF MINNESOTA BEATS CHICAGO)
1) PHI win + MIN loss

(IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
1) PHI win
2) PHI tie + MIN loss or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas clinches East division:
1) DAL win

Dallas clinches a first-round bye:
(IF CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
1) DAL win + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie

AFC

CLINCHED:
Indianapolis — South division and home-field advantage.
San Diego — West division and first-round bye.
Cincinnati — North division.
New England — East division.

ELIMINATED:
Cleveland, Kansas City, Oakland, Buffalo, Tennessee.

Baltimore, the Jets, Denver, Pittsburgh and Houston can also make the playoffs if they tie this week with various other things happening. Jacksonville and Miami cannot make the playoffs with a tie.

BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore clinches a playoff spot:
1) BAL win

NEW YORK JETS
NY Jets clinch a playoff spot:
1) NYJ win

DENVER BRONCOS
Denver clinches a playoff spot:
1) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
2) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
3) DEN win + NYJ loss or tie + HOU win
4) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + PIT loss or tie
5) DEN win + BAL loss or tie + HOU win
6) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss
7) PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
8.) PIT loss + BAL loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
9) PIT loss + HOU loss + JAC loss + NYJ loss
10) MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh clinches a playoff spot:
1) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie
2) PIT win + HOU loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
3) PIT win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston clinches a playoff spot:
1) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + BAL loss or tie
2) HOU win + NYJ loss or tie + DEN loss or tie
3) HOU win + BAL loss or tie + DEN loss or tie

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Jacksonville clinches a playoff spot:
1) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + HOU loss
2) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + DEN loss + NYJ loss
3) JAC win + PIT loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
4) JAC win + PIT loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + NYJ loss
5) JAC win + NYJ loss + DEN loss + HOU loss + BAL loss

MIAMI DOLPHINS
Miami clinches a playoff spot:
1) MIA win + NYJ loss + BAL loss + HOU loss + JAC loss or tie

If I can try and simplify the AFC, the 9-7 hierarchy is as follows:
Tie 1) Baltimore AND NY Jets
2) Denver
3) Houston
4) Pittsburgh

The 8-8 hierarchy is:
1) Jacksonville
2) Denver
3) Miami

Denver is the only team that can lose and still make the playoffs; they need all other 8-7 teams to lose OR all but one AND Jacksonville.

If I'm wrong, please correct me. If you like, this site from Yahoo (sports.yahoo.com) that I got from thecubsfan's twitter will help you be a mad scientist.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
Go Pack Go! (10-5, 2nd NFC North, Wild Card clinched)
Let's Go Riders! (2009 West Division Champions)
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JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 50 days
Last activity: 1 hour
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Y!:
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.30
    Originally posted by hansen9j
    Cincinnati — North division.
    New England — East division.


There's also the matter of this trainwreck. If New England and Cincinnati BOTH win, lose, or tie, they will finish the season with identical records and identical conference records. Since they didn't play each other, head-to-head is out as a tiebreaker, and since the AFC East and AFC North divisions didn't match-up this year, there aren't enough common games between the two teams to use the "common opponents" tiebreaker. That means they have to go to strength of victory...

Right now the Pats have the edge in SOV - 65-85 for their opponents vs. 60-90 for the Bengals'. Since they both play 8-7 teams this week, if they both win those wins will essentially negate each other, leaving the Pats' edge at +5 wins. (EDIT - This is 61-89, and Pats +4 if the Bears win - sue me for forgetting about them.)

Some games don't mean anything to the tiebreaker.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (Pats beat them both.)
Chicago at Detroit (Bengals beat them both.)

NE and CIN will both be +1 from those games, so they negate each other.

These games involve two teams that neither NE or CIN beat:

San Francisco at St. Louis
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota
Washington at San Diego
Philadelphia at Dallas

(EDIT: And a bunch of impressive-looking but incorrect calculating was here...)

(edited by JayJayDean on 29.12.09 1244)

Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 451 days
Last activity: 412 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.38
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by hansen9j
      Cincinnati — North division.
      New England — East division.


    There's also the matter of this trainwreck. If New England and Cincinnati BOTH win, lose, or tie, they will finish the season with identical records and identical conference records. Since they didn't play each other, head-to-head is out as a tiebreaker, and since the AFC East and AFC North divisions didn't match-up this year, there aren't enough common games between the two teams to use the "common opponents" tiebreaker.


Actually, conference opponents always either play each other in a season or they have at least 5 common opponents, and you need to have 4 for the common games tiebreaker.

For instance, Cincinnati and New England's common opponents are Baltimore, New York Jets, Houston, and Denver. That's 5 common opponents because Cincinnati played Baltimore twice and New England played the New York Jets twice.

What *is* true is that both are 2-2 against those common opponents, and both play their 5th common opponent this week. So if they both win or both lose or both tie, then they're going to be tied in the common games tiebreaker. And after common games it is indeed SOV.

In terms of the AFC wild card picture, I looked at the scenarios last week (once there are less than 16 games that decide the standings, you can spreadsheet every possibility), and I figured out that there was about a 3% chance that an 8-8 team could make the playoffs. Didn't bother figuring out all possibilities because once again it came down to SOV between two teams, and I was too lazy to figure that out. It's now up to about a 19% chance (this is all assuming that every game has a 50/50 outcome) of an 8-8 team making the playoffs.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 28.12.09 1927)
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 50 days
Last activity: 1 hour
AIM:  
Y!:
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.30
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    Actually, conference opponents always either play each other in a season or they have at least 5 common opponents, and you need to have 4 for the common games tiebreaker.

    For instance, Cincinnati and New England's common opponents are Baltimore, New York Jets, Houston, and Denver. That's 5 common opponents because Cincinnati played Baltimore twice and New England played the New York Jets twice.

    What *is* true is that both are 2-2 against those common opponents, and both play their 5th common opponent this week. So if they both win or both lose or both tie, then they're going to be tied in the common games tiebreaker. And after common games it is indeed SOV.


Well, shit. I was looking at a combination of just their wins and the FB Outsiders chart that went straight to SOV, so it SOUNDED right. At least all that calculatin' wasn't for nothing.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 11 hours
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.57
Let's try and update this while Favre's tears are freezing on the turf.

NFC

CLINCHED:
New Orleans — South division and homefield advantage
Minnesota — North division.
Arizona — West division.
Philadelphia — playoff spot.
Green Bay — playoff spot.
Dallas — playoff spot.

ELIMINATED:
Detroit, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington, Chicago, Seattle, Carolina, Atlanta, San Francisco, NY Giants.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota clinches a first-round bye:
CHICAGO BEATS MINNESOTA)
1) MIN win + PHI loss or tie
2) MIN tie + PHI loss

ARIZONA CARDINALS

Arizona clinches a first-round bye:
1) ARI win + MIN loss + PHI loss

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Philadelphia clinches East division:
1) PHI win or tie

Philadelphia clinches a first-round bye:
1) PHI win
2) PHI tie + MIN loss or tie

DALLAS COWBOYS
Dallas clinches East division:
1) DAL win

Dallas clinches a first-round bye:
1) DAL win + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
Go Pack Go! (10-5, 2nd NFC North, Wild Card clinched)
Let's Go Riders! (2009 West Division Champions)
thecubsfan
Scrapple
Moderator








Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 1 hour
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
If you don't want to do Boffo's spreadsheet, you can cheat go to SportsClubStats/NFL, where they break down the percentage change of finishing in every different spot (playoff and not)

How the schedule is going to affect the outcomes:

1PM games
SF @ STL - #1 draft pick
IND @ BUF - NE/CIN tiebreaker
NE @ HOU - NE seeding, AFC wildcard
ATL @ TB - no impact
NO @ CAR - no impact
PIT @ MIA - AFC wildcard, NE/CIN tiebreaker
JAC @ CLE - AFC wildcard
NYG @ MIN - NFC bye
CHI @ DET - #1 draft pick

By the end of the 1pm games, 2 or 3 of the AFC wildcard teams will be eliminated, and the scenarios will be whittled down a bit.

If the Vikings win, the Cardinals will be locked out of a bye, and locked into a first round game with Green Bay. (If Philly wins, it's 4/5 match. If Dallas wins, it's 3/6.) Could be interesting if MIN/NYG goes close and long and Arizona starts theirs unsure of what game plan they're using. If the bye is off the table, Cardinals pull their guys - and, really, not too sure why the Packers put on much of an effort either way.

Similarly, a New England win and a strength of schedule clinch (Indy laying down enough for the Bills to win seems pretty likely) means the Bengals know they don't have anything left to play for AND would face the Jets next week (CIN 4, NYJ 5) unless the Bengals just beat them that week. When two teams have been locked in as a playoff matchup before their game starts, they usually rest everyone and play vanilla. This would be a bit different - the Bengals rest and get the rematch, or play and get someone else (most likely the Ravens) - but I'd bet on the same outcome. They'd have a few hours to think about it, at least. And that's even if the 3 vs 4 seed deal makes a difference to the Bengals, which is quite possibly does not.

I really didn't like the Bengals/Jets game being chosen for SNF because of that likely possibility. It's nice to get different teams, because there's way too many NFC East games on prime time*, but Eagles/Cowboys is nearly as important and much more likely to be played straight out.

* - apparently, in NBC's contract, they're required to flex the same amount of AFC as NFC games by the end of their contract (2013), and they were +3 NFC before this pick. If it had to be an AFC game for that reason, then NYJ/CIN is the best you can do. But root hard for the Texans to make it interesting.

Actually, the real lesson here is "never ever let your fantasy league go to week 17." You want to do playoffs somehow, do that, but this should be the fantasy football bye week. (Naturally, I've got three games to deal with.)

4PM
WAS @ SD - no impact
PHI @ DAL - NFC bye, NFC East
TEN @ SEA - CIN/NE tiebreaker (Chris Johnson goes for some records)
BAL @ OAK - AFC Wildcard
KC @ DEN - AFC Wildcard
GB @ ARI - NFC Bye

8:20PM
CIN @ NYJ - AFC Wildcard, AFC 3/4

3 games of no importance, 2 more only important for obscure tiebreaker appearances (though one may break a record) and 2 more which only matter for tanking purposes - that still leaves 9 meaningful games. Not too bad.



thecubsfan.com - luchablog
dunkndollaz
Banger








Since: 3.1.02
From: Northern NJ

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 2 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.26
So basically if my Dad's J-E-T-S jetsjetsjets win, than my Broncos are screwed....

Go Bengals !!!



I think my kids are trying to kill me
CajunMan
Boudin blanc
No longer registered








Since: 2.1.02
From: Give me a Title shot!

Since last post: 1099 days
Last activity: 236 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.23
So if Dal wins and Min. loses that would mean Dal. who was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago not only clinches a playoff berth but a bye too. If the NYG defense shows up they maybe able to beat the Viks. What happened to the bandwagon Viks fans anyway?

I guess the Saints owe the Bears some Gumbo for bailing them(Saints) out.
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 479 days
Last activity: 479 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.87
    Originally posted by CajunMan
    So if Dal wins and Min. loses that would mean Dal. who was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago not only clinches a playoff berth but a bye too. If the NYG defense shows up they maybe able to beat the Viks. What happened to the bandwagon Viks fans anyway?

    I guess the Saints owe the Bears some Gumbo for bailing them(Saints) out.





Cowboys would also need a Green Bay win against the Cardinals in order to get the bye. If by some miracle the Giants actually show up, considering they didn't in a home game they needed to stay in contention, and beat the Vikings, do the Packers lay down in order to cost the Vikings a bye and to possibly get the Vikings in Round 1, where they could personally send Favre off into his yearly I retire, I don't retire, repeat 472 times.
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 11 hours
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.57
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
      Originally posted by CajunMan
      So if Dal wins and Min. loses that would mean Dal. who was on the bubble a couple of weeks ago not only clinches a playoff berth but a bye too. If the NYG defense shows up they maybe able to beat the Viks. What happened to the bandwagon Viks fans anyway?

      I guess the Saints owe the Bears some Gumbo for bailing them(Saints) out.





    Cowboys would also need a Green Bay win against the Cardinals in order to get the bye. If by some miracle the Giants actually show up, considering they didn't in a home game they needed to stay in contention, and beat the Vikings, do the Packers lay down in order to cost the Vikings a bye and to possibly get the Vikings in Round 1, where they could personally send Favre off into his yearly I retire, I don't retire, repeat 472 times.


As much as I am in favor of the Packers screwing over the Vikings, it becomes irrelevant once the Vikings lose to the Giants. As soon as that happens, someone will catch them, whether it's Philly, Dallas, or Arizona.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
Go Pack Go! (10-5, 2nd NFC North, Wild Card clinched)
Let's Go Riders! (2009 West Division Champions)
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 50 days
Last activity: 1 hour
AIM:  
Y!:
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.30
Now that the Bears have won, the Pats are +4 in wins over the Bengals, so here is the corrected list of games that affect the NE/CIN tiebreaker.

(EDIT: Or, a semi-corrected and ultimately incomplete list, which has now been [hopefully] updated correctly.)

(edited by JayJayDean on 29.12.09 1245)


Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
Captain Ferret
Chipolata








Since: 14.9.02
From: Manchester

Since last post: 513 days
Last activity: 21 hours
#12 Posted on
What about the Green Bay game? The Bengals beat them in week 2.

(edited by Captain Ferret on 29.12.09 1959)
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 50 days
Last activity: 1 hour
AIM:  
Y!:
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.30
    Originally posted by Captain Ferret
    What about the Green Bay game? The Bengals beat them in week 2.


I, uh, er...*punches laptop*

(Hey, lookee there - I also missed the Panthers, who the Patriots beat! I'm awesome!)

Jacksonville (+1 for NE) at Cleveland (+2 for CIN)
Pittsburgh (+2 for CIN) at Miami (+1 for NE)

Baltimore (+1 for CIN) at Oakland
Kansas City (+1 for CIN) at Denver
Green Bay (+1 for CIN) at Arizona

Tennessee (+1 for NE) at Seattle
Indianapolis at Buffalo (+2 for NE)
New Orleans at Carolina (+1 for NE)
Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets (+1 for NE if both CIN and NE lose)

And according to Yahoo, the Pats win the strength of schedule tiebreaker if it comes to that. At this point, I trust them to be right more than I trust myself, so let's go with that.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 8 days
Last activity: 8 hours
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.32
There's speculation that the Bengals might sit their starters for Sunday's game, since they have nothing to play for. If that's the case, can you think of a team less deserving of a playoff spot than the Jets, ever? I'm sure the other teams still alive would have LOVED to have their last two opponents lay down for them and let them waltz into the playoffs.




There can be only ONE!
thecubsfan
Scrapple
Moderator








Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 1 hour
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
According to Ochocinco, Marvin Lewis said they wouldn't be pulling the starters. Hope that's right.



thecubsfan.com - luchablog
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 72 days
Last activity: 72 days
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.22
    Originally posted by It's False
    There's speculation that the Bengals might sit their starters for Sunday's game, since they have nothing to play for.


If that's the case, then whoever is doing the speculating might want to take a look at the AFC standings and reconsider. *I* certainly wouldn't consider avoiding a potential trip to Foxboro in the conference title game "nothing," but what do I know?
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 479 days
Last activity: 479 days
#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.87
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      Originally posted by It's False
      There's speculation that the Bengals might sit their starters for Sunday's game, since they have nothing to play for.


    If that's the case, then whoever is doing the speculating might want to take a look at the AFC standings and reconsider. *I* certainly wouldn't consider avoiding a potential trip to Foxboro in the conference title game "nothing," but what do I know?






Taking it to the next level, the 4 seed might be more attractive than the 3 seed. Supposing form holds in the 1st round, I'd rather take a shot against the Colts coming off the bye, when they have struggled, than take a shot at going against the Chargers.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 21 hours
#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.66
You've got to wonder if the NFL and NBC are trying to convince some people at Bengals headquarters to play the starters on Sunday night. After the Colts fiasco last week, it would look pretty bad if the NFL's featured game on Sunday night ends up being another lay-down. Not that the Bengals should necessarily give a crap, but still.

(And yeah, I ripped the Colts for quitting last week but I support the Bengals' right to do so this week if they so choose. Indy had a shot at a perfect season and, if they were really concerned about protecting their starters, why the hell did they let them play for 2.5 quarters? It made the decision to pull them look even dumber.)



Kirk, crackers are a family food. Happy families. Maybe single people eat crackers, we don't know. Frankly, we don't want to know. It's a market we can do without.
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