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The W - Football - Week 10 playoff seedings (Post-MNF)
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 15 hours
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
Here are the Week 10 the playoff seedings.

For the non-playoff teams, I'm using the Wild Card tie-breakers. Why? Because I'm calculating how far back they're from the #6 seed.
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2.
The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the three Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.

I __think__ I have all the tie-breakers right. I'm going to double check the 6-3 traffic jam in the AFC.

I have added how many games back the bottom 10 teams are from the last wild card slot.


AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers 8-1 (Beat NE) AFC North Leader
2. New England Patriots 8-1 (Lost to Pittsburgh) AFC East Leader
3. Denver Broncos 6-3 (4-2 in AFC) AFC West Leader
4. Indianapolis Colts 6-3 (3-1 in AFC South) AFC South Leader
5. Baltimore Ravens 6-3 (5-2 in AFC, Beat NY Jets) Wildcard
6. San Diego Chargers 6-3 (4-2 .667% in AFC) (Lost to Denver head-to-head) Wildcard


7. New York Jets 6-3 (5-3 .625% in AFC) Goes to Common Games (2-0) Techinally it has to be four games (They play Houston and Pittsburgh later). (16-38 .296% SoV) (0 GB)
8. Jacksonville Jaguars 6-3 (2-2 in AFC South, 5-3 .625% in AFC) Goes to Common Games Techinally it has to be four games (1-1) (They play Houston and Pittsburgh later). (25-29 .463% SoV) (0 GB)

9. Houston Texans 4-5 (4-3 in AFC) (2 GB)
10. Cincinnati Bengals 4-5 (2-5 in AFC) (2 GB)

11. Kansas City Chiefs 3-6 (2-3 in AFC) (1-0 in common game) (19-8 .704% SoV) (3 GB)
12. Cleveland Browns 3-6 (2-3 in AFC) (1-0 in common game) (13-14 .481% SoV) (3 GB)
13. Tennessee Titans 3-6 (2-4 in AFC) (3 GB)
14. Buffalo Bills 3-6 (2-6 in AFC) (3 GB)
15. Oakland Raiders 3-6 (1-5 in AFC; lost tie-breaker to KC) (3 GB)

16. Miami Dolphins 1-8 (5 GB with 7 to play; Eliminated from AFC East title with a NE win or a Miami loss)

Wildcard Weekend
#6 Chargers @ #3 Broncos
#5 Ravens @ #4 Colts
Divisional games
#3 Broncos or Winner of Ravens-Colts @ #2 Patriots
Winner of Ravens-Colts or #6 Chargers @ #1 Steelers

NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles 8-1 NFC East Leader
2. Atlanta Falcons 7-2 NFC South Leader
3. St. Louis Rams 5-4 (5-2 in NFC, No common games with Packers, 18-27 .400 SoV) NFC West Leader
4. Green Bay Packers 5-4 (5-2 in NFC, No common games with Rams, 17-28 .378% SoV) NFC North Leader
5. Seattle Seahawks 5-4 (5-3 in NFC) Wildcard
6. New York Giants 5-4 (4-4 in NFC, beat Minnesota) Wildcard


7. Minnesota Vikings 5-4 (3-3 in NFC) (0 GB)

8. Arizona Cardinals 4-5 (3-3 in NFC) (1 GB)
9. Detroit Lions 4-5 (3-4 in NFC) (1 GB)
10. Chicago Bears 4-5 (3-5 in NFC) (1 GB)
11. New Orleans Saints 4-5 (2-4 in NFC) (1 GB)

12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3-6 (2-4 in NFC) (0-1 in common game with Dallas, 11-16 .407% SoV) (2 GB)
13. Dallas Cowboys 3-6 (2-4 in NFC) (Beat Washington, 0-1 in common game with TB, 10-17 .370% SoV) (2 GB)
14. Washington Redskins 3-6 (3-4 in NFC) (Lost div tie-breaker to Dallas) (2 GB)

15. Carolina Panthers 2-7 (1-4 in NFC) (3 GB)

16. San Francisco 49ers 1-8 (1-7 in NFC) (4 GB with 7 to play)

Wildcard Weekend
#6 Giants @ #3 Rams
#5 Seahawks @ #4 Packers
Divisional games
#3 Rams or Winner of Seahawks-Packers @ #2 Falcons
Winner of Seahawks-Packers or #6 Giants @ #1 Eagles

(edited by Zeruel on 16.11.04 0141)


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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.61
I think (sorry, Guru) that since the Broncos eliminate the Chargers that makes the Chargers the #7 seed at best, behind Baltimore, Indy, and the Jets.

EDIT: Actually I think you've got it right, as Denver and Indy being divison leaders leaves a 4-way Wild Card tie.

(edited by JayJayDean on 15.11.04 1331)


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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 15 hours
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
From the NFL.com FAQ:

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.

I hope I read that bold section correctly. I've messed this all up before, so there's a good chance I'm wrong.

So, I guess that means that the #3 seed has to be settled.
Denver eliminates SD in the West
Indy eliminates Jacksonville in the South
Denver has the better conf record

Then the #4 seed has to be settled.
Indy is the last conf champ

Then the #5 seed has to be settled between:
Baltimore, SD, NYJ, and Jacksonville
Baltimore has the best conf record (5-2)

Then the #6 seed has to be settled between:
SD, NYJ, and Jacksonville
SD has the best conf record (4-2)

IF I read that correctly.




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Broncolanche
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Since: 2.6.03
From: Littleton, CO

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.00
Boy howdy does the NFC look weak.
Gugs
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Since: 9.7.02
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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.22
If the Cardinals win and the Giants and Vikings both lose, does that put Arizona in the playoffs? They beat New York who beat Minnesota, but I don't think the Cards and Vikes have played each other this season.



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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.18
How do the Chargers get in when they have head-to-head losses to both Jacksonville and the Jets. Not that I'm complaining about the Jets getting left out.



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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 15 hours
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    How do the Chargers get in when they have head-to-head losses to both Jacksonville and the Jets. Not that I'm complaining about the Jets getting left out.


San Diego beat Jacksonville Week 5 34-21 at home
The Jets won @ San Diego Week 2 34-28

In a three or more way tie, the head-to-head only works if one beat all the rest, or they all beat the one team.

Don't scare me like that man, I think I actually got this right this week.

These tie-breakers for the NFL and NCAA are gonna make my head explode.

In the NFC, I think that Minnesota is the only team with a real chance to break into a wildcard. I thought they would roll over and die withouth Moss, but they've put up a fight these last two weeks.

In the AFC, I think the #7 through #10 teams all have a real shot at that last wildcard and that it may come down to some major tie breakers when they all finish at 10-6 or 9-7

Just a note the AFC is beating the NFC 23-15 (0.605%) so far this year.

(edited by Zeruel on 15.11.04 1854)



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BigSteve
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Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2748 days
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.92
I appreciate you doing these seedings; I appreciate them even more when I see that the Ravens are up to 5th place :)
Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
It bothers me that Arizona and Chicago both have a good chance to win their respective divisions given their weak starts.

The problem for the Ravens now is the fact that our three toughest games are on the road(New England in Week 12, then Indy and Pittsburgh in back to back Weeks 15-16). Yet at the same time, we play Dallas, the Giants, Cincinnati, and Miami at home.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say we finish 11-5.



BigSteve
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Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2748 days
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.74
    Originally posted by Grimis
    It bothers me that Arizona and Chicago both have a good chance to win their respective divisions given their weak starts.

    The problem for the Ravens now is the fact that our three toughest games are on the road(New England in Week 12, then Indy and Pittsburgh in back to back Weeks 15-16). Yet at the same time, we play Dallas, the Giants, Cincinnati, and Miami at home.

    I'm going to go out on a limb and say we finish 11-5.


Yea, doesn't it suck that we had to play the four toughest teams in the league on the road? I'd definately take a 1-3 in those games. Even if we just win the games that we're supposed to down the stretch, we'll be 10-6 and should make the playoffs. The other four games are all very winnable. vs Cincy, Miami, and Dallas are sure wins, while the NYG game got a whole lot more winnable this week. We'll have the first tie-break over the Jets and possibly the Colts as well if we beat them and the Jags can hold them off. Plus with Boller improving, Moore emerging, and Ogden, Heap, and Boulware still set to return soon, I'm very optimistic).

(Of course, if the Jets knew how to manage the clock, I'd be friggin Chicken Little right now.)
Net Hack Slasher
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Since: 6.1.02
From: Outer reaches of your mind

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.29
KC might be a decent team if they have anything that would be considered a defense... On a positive Houston is having a surprising nice year.

Every NFC wildcard team is so inconsistent you just can't tell from one week or the other what they will do.



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