For a brief moment, I thought I had been selected as today's W of the Day. No, the streak lives! This is more improbable as the list of possible winners continues to shrink. I nearly reopened the 2009 thread about this to celebrate, but feared an electric shock would be sent to my computer.
Instead, here's the updated to 2009 chart, seeing who still has a hand on the proverbial car.
| 16 | thecubsfan | NO | 37 | Java | NO | 41 | Llakor | YES | 47 | DrewDewce | NO | 51 | bash91 | YES | 57 | JohnPi | YES | 63 | haz | YES | 88 | richcon | NO (inactive) | 101 | Rudoublesedoublel | YES | 130 | spf | NO | 138 | Scar | YES | 143 | wesman1111 | NO (inactive) | 146 | EddieBurkett | NO | 174 | Freeway | YES | 177 | Big Bad | NO | 182 | Eradicator | NO | 240 | Jimmy O | NO (inactive) | 243 | snk | YES - has not posted in 3.5 years, was active today. | 255 | mskj | YES | 257 | Evil Antler God | NO (inactive) | 262 | Bullitt | NO (inactive, hopefully enjoyed the return of Arrested Development) | 305 | Shem the Penman | NO | 312 | Torchslasher | NO (inactive) | 333 | jecjr | NO (inactive) | 342 | RecklessEric | YES | 348 | PeterStork | NO (inactive) | 357 | LennyAaronRoxx | YES | 359 | Mr. Heat Miser | NO (inactive) | 361 | AWArulz | NO | 364 | StegDutchie | NO | 372 | rinberg | NO | 435 | Bitter The Clown | NO (inactive)
Is there any way to include guys like me that weren't listed back in '09? Looking at my profile, I'm thisclose to 2,000 days without a W of the day to my name and even though I haven't posted much recently, I get the feeling I would be fairly up there in winless W'ers.
I was actually sure I'd be up there since it seems like I've been here a while without being the W of the Day, but a look at the W-list reveals many people who have logged more days than my 1600-something and have nothing to show for it.
Does it have anything to do with posting frequency? I was under the impression that it's completely random.
The thing about randomness is that people don't really understand what randomness looks like. "Every person gets chosen once every 3 years" is not random. Random means some people get it more often than they should, and some people get it less.
Your odds of being selected W-of-the-day tomorrow are about 1 in 3,300. If we started fresh from today, and no one new ever joined, after 2,287 days (more than 6 years), half the people on the board would have been selected, and half wouldn't. And obviously a certain percentage on the high end of the bell curve would have been selected more than once.
After 7,600 days, (more than 20 years), we'd still expect that 330 users would never have been selected.
Now that's only the odds for someone like StevenRemote, who most recently joined. The number of users basically always increases, so we all had a better chance of winning when we first joined than we do now. I can't find the spreadsheet I made back in 2007 to figure out your odds of having been selected based on the day you joined, and it involved a lot of work looking up when board membership increased, but I'd say it's definitely possible that some people may never be W of the day.
"I'm pretty sure [Andre Caldwell]'ll do a lot more with Manning than he did with Andy Dalton." - StaggerLee
The ia_archiver (from web.archive.org?) rolled on by at 23:02:21 to roll us over to 23000000. Recent millions (and how long they took) 23M 06 Dec 2004 23:02:21 22M 28 Oct 2004 20:18:40 (39:04:15:41) 21M 17 Sep 2004 20:58:36 (40:21:20:04)