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The W - Basketball - Tourney Time/ Bubble Watch
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BigSteve
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Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2850 days
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.78
It isn't *quite* March yet, but the road to the Final Four kinda sorta kicks off tomorrow when the Ohio Valley, Big South, and Horizon League kick off their tournaments tomorrow, and the first bids are given out on Saturday when the Big South and Atlantic Sun wrap their conference tournaments up plus Penn is a good bid to clinch the Ivy League conference title/auto bid by then as well.

So who's going to get in and who's not? My beloved Maryland Terps look like they're well on their way to being invited to the NIT based on the way they've collapsed in the past few weeks. They'll probably be lucky to win another game before the NIT. The ACC is looking good for only four bids this year while the Pac Ten and Big XII should get the same. On the other extreme, the Big East looks to get eight and maybe nine teams in and the Big Ten has a shot at seven. Plus the Missouri Valley could get a record four or even five bids this year.

What do you guys think - or am I the only why that gets excited when the low major conferences start having thier tourneys?



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Since: 12.2.02
From: Cleveland, Ohio

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.84
Naw, I'm on board as well. Got my charts set up for the Horizon, MAC, and Big Ten tourneys - Go CSU, Kent/Akron/Toledo, and OSU!

I cannot believe how good OSU has been the last two years. Between Thad Matta and Tressel at OSU, it is a good time to be a Buckeyes fan. Especially with high expectations for both football and basketball next year - thank you Greg Oden!

I love tourney time!



Rudoublesedoublel
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Kentucky - Home of the 8 time NCAA Champ Wildcats

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.26
My beloved Kentucky Wildcats are squarely on the bubble. Big game at Tennessee on Wednesday and against Florida in Lexington on senior day on Sunday. Two wins plus one win in the SEC tournament and the 'Cats should be in. But, I'm afraid that the 'Cats took too long to "get it together" this year. Their only quality win so far is against West Virginia. The Louisville victory looks less like a quality win every time UL gets beat in Big East play. But, as a blue glasses wearing fan, I'm confident that the 'Cats will win the SEC tournament, thus making the bubble debate moot. Of course, I'm also confident that the Easter Bunny will be visiting me in about 7 weeks as well.

I'm actually excited about the Ohio Valley tournament. I'm a Murray State alum and the Racers won the regular season OVC but must win the tournament to make the NCAA.

I don't think that the MVC will get 4 or 5 bids. They have good RPIs, but that is mostly from playing one another. Thier out of conference schedules are a little suspect, though I do think the MVC may get 3 bids.



University of Kentucky basketball isn't a matter of life and death, it's much more important than that.
Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

Since last post: 3 days
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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.23
Man, I'm not looking forward to that Kentucky game. My Gators have, according to Lunardi's bracketology, dropped to a five seed. We definitely need to get out of a 5 seed, which is historically a bad spot, not just in general, but for Florida specifically. But playing at Lexington on Senior Day with their season possibly on the line, that's not going to be an easy one. I'm not sure about Lunardi's seedings though, I know Florida doesn't have a strong schedule, and they've lost four times in three weeks but if you just go by how good a team they are I think they are definitely better than a 5 seed. Plus I think the SEC has been underrated this season, three of the Gators last four losses were to pretty good teams (Tennessee, Alabama, and Arkansas). I'm not sure why LSU desevers a 3 seed either, Florida has a better record and beat them head to head.

Also here's hoping my hometown UAB Blazers get in the NCAA tournament, they seem to be on the bubble right now, go figure. I mean I don't know much about the Conf USA, I'm guessing it's pretty weak, but it seems to me if you're 10 - 2 in your conference and 20 - 5 overall you should get in, they can't help it if the teams in their conference didn't have better seasons.



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TheCow
Landjager








Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
Here's the thing with UAB. Their losses aren't bad - I mean, losses to Memphis and UTEP really aren't that damaging in the grand scheme of things. However, when Memphis and UTEP are the best players in your conference, until you beat them, it's tough to say whether or not you're among the elite in your conference. Right now, I'd say they're 3rd in C-USA, which last year would've been a source of pride, but this year doesn't mean a whole lot. Honestly, without the presence of Memphis in the league, I don't know how strong the conference would be rated; only 4 of the league teams have winning records, and if you know your conference is weak, go schedule some strong non-conference opponents. As of now, it looks like their best win is at home against Oklahoma St. If they make some noise in the conference tourney, I can see them crawling to the NCAA side of the bubble, but either way, beating Memphis will help them a lot. They need that game.

Anyway, I'm ecstatic to see Tennessee doing so well, even if it confuses me slightly. As of now, we're projected as a 3 seed (although I do NOT look forward to a possible matchup with Memphis in the Elite 8, and that's only if we can get past Adam Morrison - yikes), which is way better than I would've given us entering the season. Personally speaking, I would've been happy with a 7 seed. We have tough, but winnable games to close out the regular season (yup, I said it - we'll beat Kentucky here tomorrow night ). The one thing I'm concerned about is momentum; although we don't technically NEED either game, it'd be nice to have them both so we have some kind of momentum heading into both the SEC tournament and the NCAAs.



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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.25
Lunardi has Washington as a #7 seed, which I think is WAY too low. They are 22-5 with a win over Gonzaga and they've won six in a row. They just beat Cal, who he has a #8, and swept UCLA, who he has as a #4. He might be underseeding them in reaction to their (some would say) overseeding as a #1 last year.

They should be at worst a #6, I think, which would at least get them out of a second-round matchup with a #2 seed.



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Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.92
I'm actually timing my move back to Calgary BEFORE the tourney starts so I won't be on the road and miss a thing...



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Since: 5.9.02
From: Norwich, NY

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.29
When looking ahead to see how all this falls out, remember that the NIT changed their rules this season, so that any conference regular season champion who doesn't make the Dance has a slot in the NIT.

Nice for some of those smaller conferences, and it means that my alma mater, the University at Albany gets postseason basketball for the first time ever, as they've won the America East.

And it was just a couple of years ago that I was sitting in the student section with 20 other people, watching 5 guys from the track team trying to get a cheering section started by chanting "safety school!" at the Harvard players during introductions. How times change.



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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.93
"Florida State has not beaten anyone of note."
-- Jay Bilas, in summary of the Seminoles' bubble chances.

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA :D

(edited by Texas Kelly on 1.3.06 2230)


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Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
They really should have to play the next home game without a student section or something for the end of that game.



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Eddie Famous
Andouille








Since: 11.12.01
From: Catlin IL

Since last post: 342 days
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.93

Woof. Ohio State tried really hard to lose to Musberger State (Northwestern).

Has any Big Ten team disappointed more than Michigan State? They need to take out the Illini to salvage their Big Ten season.



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ManiacalClown
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Houston, TX

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
ohhhhh hell yes






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Since: 12.2.02
From: Cleveland, Ohio

Since last post: 15 hours
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.84
Thank God OSU didn't give it up to the kitties. Now they've clinched at least a share of the league title with the outright title on the line against Purdon't.

Glad to see the other upsets tonight, though. Whoo -what a year!



redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 488 days
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.79
    Originally posted by Eddie Famous
    Woof. Ohio State tried really hard to lose to Musberger State (Northwestern).

    Has any Big Ten team disappointed more than Michigan State? They need to take out the Illini to salvage their Big Ten season.








Still, if Michigan State gets put in an optimal bracket, say as a 5 or 6 away from UCONN and Duke, they could do some real damage.
This sounds crazy because they might finish 12th in the Big East, but if Louisville (assuming they lose to UCONN) wins in the first round of the Big East Tourney, they would be at 19 wins. If they go 8 Big East teams, they get in over Seton Hall or Cinci under those circumstances.
If I'm a 1 seed, the team I don't want in my region is West Virginia. They could lose a #3 vs. #14 game, but they could also ride that 1-3-1 and the Bombs Away offense to the Final Four.
Fire Tim Welsh.

(edited by redsoxnation on 2.3.06 2153)


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Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
From: Pittsburgh, PA

Since last post: 3 days
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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.23
Yes! UAB beats Memphis, maybe that will get them in, or atleast give them a lot better shot. I'm sure winning the CUSA tournament wouldn't hurt, but that means beating Memphis a second time.

And Florida bounced back too with an outstanding 37 point 11 rebound performance from Joakim Noah. Of course you all may have missed it since Sportscenter showed a whopping 2 plays from the game. Maybe if he were J.J. Reddick or Adam Morisson then they would've talked about it.



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BigSteve
Pepperoni








Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2850 days
Last activity: 2578 days
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.78
    Originally posted by Quezzy
    Of course you all may have missed it since Sportscenter showed a whopping 2 plays from the game.


Florida versus Georgia doesn't exactly beg for an extensive breakdown by Digger Phelps and the gang. Though if you're complaining about the fawning over a Dook game after a loss, I can get on board with that.

    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    This sounds crazy because they might finish 12th in the Big East, but if Louisville (assuming they lose to UCONN) wins in the first round of the Big East Tourney, they would be at 19 wins. If they go 8 Big East teams, they get in over Seton Hall or Cinci under those circumstances.


Assuming they lose to UConn, there is a chance they don't make the Big East Tournament. With a Saint John win over Rutgers, that leaves Louisville, Rutgers, Saint John and Depaul/Notre Dame (both 5-10 and they play each other in the finale) would be in a four way tie at 6-10 for the 10, 11, and 12 spots in the tourney. I have no clue how they work their tiebreakers, but the Cards could be the odd team out. No way they get into the Dance unless they win out to the conference finals because they're well behind Seton Hall, Syracuse, and Cincy right now.

UAB got the win they needed and are probably into the dance barring a CUSA QF loss to one of the crap teams at the bottom of the conference. Kentucky and Arkansas look like locks out of the SEC after this week. Cal blew a big chance against UCLA with an OT loss.



He's got that hand-waving deal. He can become INVISIBLE! This means MONEY, Dawg! - AWARulz on Cena.
Rudoublesedoublel
Potato korv








Since: 2.1.02
From: Kentucky - Home of the 8 time NCAA Champ Wildcats

Since last post: 1 day
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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.26
I'll qualify the following by saying that I'm not the "typical" UL hating UK fan, I actually root for the in-state teams when they're not playing UK.

Having said that, many of UL's wins came against a very soft non-conference schedule in which their only loss was to UK. The only way that UL's RPI and SOS measures are respectable (assuming that they are) is because of Big East play.

Noah is a tough player. All of the Gators' sophomores are studs - here's an SEC fan hoping they go NBA.



University of Kentucky basketball isn't a matter of life and death, it's much more important than that.
kwik
Summer sausage








Since: 5.9.02
From: Norwich, NY

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.29

Most projections I've seen for the Big East have them getting 6-8, figuring UConn, Georgetown, West Virginia, Pitt, Villanova, and Marquette as solidly in, and Seton Hall and Cincy on the bubble. Syracuse probably just screwed the pooch going out and getting smoked by DePaul, to the tune of a 39-point road blasting. They lost to 'Nova by 10 today too. Looking at the pairings for the Big East tournament, you have:

Cincinnati vs. Syracuse (Winner gets UConn)
Georgetown vs. Notre Dame (Marquette)
Seton Hall vs. Rutgers (Villanova)
Pitt vs. Louisville (West Virginia)

I can't see the Big East getting 9, because Cincy and Seton Hall at least need 1 win to get in as an at large, and 'Cuse, or Rutgers winning the tournament would ruin that.

Even if someone like Louisville or Syracuse, or even Notre Dame or Rutgers wins the tournament, I still don't think the Big East gets more than 8.

(edited by kwik on 5.3.06 2112)

(edited by kwik on 5.3.06 2114)

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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

Since last post: 57 days
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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.93
I think the Big East is pretty much set for eight, as it would take a miracle run like West Virginia last year for Syracuse to get in. (At minimum, they need to beat Cincinnati and upset Connecticut, and even that might not be enough.) Seton Hall is pretty much good to go, though it wouldn't be wise to lay down for Rutgers. Same goes for Cincinnati (though they have a tougher matchup, since Syracuse usually gets a Garden boost). Louisville would need to get to the Big East title game, minimum, to have a shot at an at-large - they have too many bad losses.



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redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 488 days
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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.79
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    I think the Big East is pretty much set for eight, as it would take a miracle run like West Virginia last year for Syracuse to get in. (At minimum, they need to beat Cincinnati and upset Connecticut, and even that might not be enough.) Seton Hall is pretty much good to go, though it wouldn't be wise to lay down for Rutgers. Same goes for Cincinnati (though they have a tougher matchup, since Syracuse usually gets a Garden boost). Louisville would need to get to the Big East title game, minimum, to have a shot at an at-large - they have too many bad losses.







Louisville gets the bad break in the tie-breaker of being the 11 seed rather than the 12 seed. If they were the 12 seed, they would get Georgetown and Marquette before a likely match-up with UCONN in the semis, and if they would have gotten to that point they would have won 20 games. As the 11 seed, they have Pittsburgh and West Virginia to get to before Villanova if they want to have 20 wins prior to the semis. Georgetown/Marquette would have been winnable, Pitt/W. Virginia is desperate straits.
Fire Tim Welsh. On the bright side, this means Providence doesn't lose any Big East Tourney games this year.



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