The W
Views: 95684582
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Calendar | Color chart | Log in for more!
20.4.14 0841
The W - Current Events & Politics - RCP Poll Aggregates: Bush up 2
This thread has 1 referral leading to it
Register and log in to post!
Thread rated: 4.20
Pages: 1
(1061 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (13 total)
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1083 days
Last activity: 880 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
These are post-debate polls and include that three polls of likely voters(that have Bush ahead) and the shady registred voters poll(with Kerry ahead).

Bush/Kerry/Nader 3-way
Poll Date Bush Kerry Nader Spread
RCP Average 9/27 - 10/3 47.8% 45.8% 1.5% Bush +2.0
Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 43% 2% Bush +3
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% 1% TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 45% 47% 2% Kerry +2
Battleground (1000 LV) 9/27 - 9/30 51% 44% 1% Bush +7

Bush/Kerry head-to-head
Poll Date Bush, Kerry, Spread
RCP Average 9/30 - 10/3 47.5% 47.3% Bush +0.2
Zogby (1036 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 46% 45% Bush +1
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% TIE
Rasmussen (3,000 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 46% Bush +3
Newsweek (1013 RV) 9/30 - 10/2 46% 49% Kerry +3


Electoral-vote.com has also seen an increase in Bush's lead by 13 electoral voters since the debate.

What does it all mean? Not much. But I do wish Newsweek would not do polls of registered voters. They know better...

(edited by Grimis on 4.10.04 1545)


Promote this thread!
BWT
Boerewors








Since: 27.1.04
From: Philly

Since last post: 3005 days
Last activity: 2609 days
AIM:  
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.04
Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them). Polls are what they are you cant say one is right and one is wrong its just the data that was collected based on the questions asked.
Malarky
Bauerwurst








Since: 19.8.04

Since last post: 3480 days
Last activity: 3477 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.67
It's amazing how quickly an 11 point lead can evaporate. Don't get too excited, Bush still has another 2 debates with which to make a fool of himself.
SirBubNorm
Salami








Since: 2.1.02
From: Under the table

Since last post: 3406 days
Last activity: 3356 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.92
    Originally posted by BWT
    Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them). Polls are what they are you cant say one is right and one is wrong its just the data that was collected based on the questions asked.


They can poll whoever they want.

You somewhat answer your own question. Using your example. Say the poll says it's 50%-50% for the candidates. 50% decide not to vote. Guess what? It could be 100%-0% or (0%-100%).

The way the data is collected becomes very important to what the data becomes. And there are definite ways to skew the data if you want to. In this case, the closest numbers are going to be the people who are planning on voting. All being registered to vote means is that you *could* vote. For those in states which allow to you to register at the polls what difference is that from those that aren't registered?

Personally polling bugs me. It feels like Vegas and the oddsmakers. I guess if you're going to vote to say that you voted for the winner, it's your perogative, but other than that what difference should it make?



It's a dog eat dog world and I'm wearing milkbone undershorts.
StaggerLee
Scrapple








Since: 3.10.02
From: Right side of the tracks

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 11 hours
AIM:  
Y!:
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.18
    Originally posted by Malarky
    It's amazing how quickly an 11 point lead can evaporate. Don't get too excited, Bush still has another 2 debates with which to make a fool of himself.
.

And, Kerry has another two debates to make himself look like a flip flopping, stuck up, no plan having, non leader.



[IMG]http://boortz.com/images/funny/100504_global_test.jpg[/IMG]
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1083 days
Last activity: 880 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by BWT
    Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).
Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.



Malarky
Bauerwurst








Since: 19.8.04

Since last post: 3480 days
Last activity: 3477 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.67
    Originally posted by StaggerLee
      Originally posted by Malarky
      It's amazing how quickly an 11 point lead can evaporate. Don't get too excited, Bush still has another 2 debates with which to make a fool of himself.
    .

    And, Kerry has another two debates to make himself look like a flip flopping, stuck up, no plan having, non leader.



Just like he did in the first?
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1083 days
Last activity: 880 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by Malarky

    And, Kerry has another two debates to make himself look like a flip flopping, stuck up, no plan having, non leader.



Just like he did in the first?
Pretty much...



Malarky
Bauerwurst








Since: 19.8.04

Since last post: 3480 days
Last activity: 3477 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.67
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by Malarky

      And, Kerry has another two debates to make himself look like a flip flopping, stuck up, no plan having, non leader.



    Just like he did in the first?
Pretty much...



Eh. Come on guys, I know we're all partisan here, but seriously, even the after-debate polls were saying that a majority of people saw Kerry as the more "presidential" (subjective term) of the two, the most in command of the facts, more poised etc.

Bush TRIED to paint Kerry as a flip-flopper, as we saw by his repeated (and I do mean REPEATED) charge that Kerry "changes positions", and sends "mixed messages". He just didn't have much to back it up with other than Kerry's changing positions on the Iraq war, which, judging by the mess that's been created over there, isn't entirely bad. Being flexible is a key to being an effective president IMHO. And we're seeing the dems hit that point home recently, with new attack lines suggesting that Bush's rigid, ideological and unwavering convictions are unsuited to fighting a guerilla war in Iraq, where the situation on the ground is constantly changing and thus requires a multitude of tactics to deal with it.

Ignorance doesn't equal strength.

(edited by Malarky on 5.10.04 0929)
Lexus
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 1 day
AIM:  
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.19
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by BWT
      Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).
    Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.


Not for nothing, but if you're willing to sit through 10 minutes of boring questions that impact the country, and not you directly, without pay or any compensation, odds are you'll make a point of going to vote.





Say Cheese!
PalpatineW
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: Getting Rowdy

Since last post: 2644 days
Last activity: 2486 days
AIM:  
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
    Originally posted by Malarky
    Eh. Come on guys, I know we're all partisan here, but seriously, even the after-debate polls were saying that a majority of people saw Kerry as the more "presidential" (subjective term) of the two, the most in command of the facts, more poised etc.


There's a bunch of internals out there to look at. Check out RealClearPolitics.com... they've got all this stuff. Posted today, from the latest Pew poll:

    Originally posted by RCP
    Please tell me what one word best describes your impression of George Bush/John Kerry in the debate.

    Bush

    33 Honest
    23 Strong/Strength
    14 Sincere
    14 Confident
    13 Defensive
    11 Determined
    11 Good
    11 Steady/Steadfast
    11 Adequate
    11 Liar
    11 Nervous
    10 Tired/Fatigued/Exhausted

    Kerry

    47 Confident
    25 Prepared
    19 Intelligent
    17 Presidential
    16 Strong/Strength
    14 Good
    12 Knowledgeable
    11 Arrogant
    11 Wishy-washy
    11 Articulate
    10 Indecisive
    9 Flip-flop



More here.

The ABC/Washington Post internals look even better for Bush. I'll try and type it without breaking the tables. [Though, after previewing it, there seem to be some weird alignment issues]




Please tell me whether the following statement applies more to (Bush) or more to (Kerry):BushKerryspread
He is honest and trustworthy4538+7
He understands the problems of people like you4342+1
He is a strong leader5832+26
He will make the country safer and more secure5437+17
He shares your values4843+5
He's taken a clear stand on the issues5928+31
He has an appealing personality5132+19
He has strong religious faith6018+42


(edited by PalpatineW on 5.10.04 2333)

(edited by PalpatineW on 5.10.04 2333)

In Theo We Trust
Guru Zim
SQL Dejection
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 18 hours
AIM:  
#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.81
    Originally posted by Grimis
      Originally posted by BWT
      Grimis can I ask why shouldn't they poll registered voters? I mean they are the people who are going to vote (well at least half of them).
    Becuase somebody who is registered isn't necessarily going to vote. The proper way to do it is likely voters: people who have an identifiable track record through election records of participating in the last three general elections.


That assumes that there is nothing different about this election than any of the last three elections. You've got to throw that out the window when there is a war on. Polarizing events have to bring out more of the non-participants, don't they?

This is our first presidential election where the following issues are present:

1) INDUCE copyright act
2) Patriot Act
3) 9/11
4) War in Iraq

Do you really feel like none of these issues might bring out a registered voter who didn't vote before?

Also, your methodology rules out youth voting. Wouldn't 18-24 year olds be ineligable for the last 3 general elections? I'm not sure what the general election cycle is.



Willful ignorance of science is not commendable. Refusing to learn the difference between a credible source and a shill is criminally stupid.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1083 days
Last activity: 880 days
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Guru, I can't dispute any of that. They all could affect turnout, the results, etc. They could bring lots of people to the polls for the first time(though I really doubt INDUCE is going to do the trick for a lot of people, even if it is a bad thing).

However, as far as statistical reliability goes, they would not be included in a poll that would legitimately be described as an accurate assessment. A poll of registered voter is just not statistically reliable because we don't know if those people are actually going to vote or not. Likely voters are the people who are statistically reliable to show up on election day, regardless of circumstances.



Thread rated: 4.20
Pages: 1
Thread ahead: Shots fired at TN Bush-Cheney HQ
Next thread: Top 20 527s
Previous thread: Kerry Violates Debate Rules
(1061 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
So this made me chuckle, and given the week I am having that is no small feat... it is a little corny. Although with my luck, this has been circling the net for the last 30 years...
The W - Current Events & Politics - RCP Poll Aggregates: Bush up 2Register and log in to post!

The W™ message board

ZimBoard
©2001-2014 Brothers Zim

This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.122 seconds.