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The W - Baseball - This Year's Free Agents (Page 2)
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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#21 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.32
I can't believed that after paying injury-plagued (and crappy) Chan Ho Park $65 million that Hicks would get into the Pedro sweepstakes, since whoever signs him is SURE to overpay for him.



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It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

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#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
This free agent update may come a few days late, but it's looking like the Angels are parting ways with Troy Percival to give the closer's role to Francisco Rodriguez. Significant because many teams are one closer away from going all the way.

If Latroy Hawkins' meltdown proved anything it's that the Cubs are in desperate need for a REAL closer. Percy could provide that. But when you think of teams that need a good closer, you've also got to think of the Giants. Either way, Percival's sure to be a hot commodity.




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kazhayashi81
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Since: 17.6.02
From: Buenos Aires, Argentina

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#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.79
    Originally posted by It's False
    This free agent update may come a few days late, but it's looking like the Angels are parting ways with Troy Percival to give the closer's role to Francisco Rodriguez. Significant because many teams are one closer away from going all the way.

    If Latroy Hawkins' meltdown proved anything it's that the Cubs are in desperate need for a REAL closer. Percy could provide that. But when you think of teams that need a good closer, you've also got to think of the Giants. Either way, Percival's sure to be a hot commodity.


He'll end up being a set up man for the Yankees.
Whitebacon
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Since: 12.1.02
From: Fresno, CA

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#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.04
I see the Cubs tossing a bunch of money his way. Hawkins is very good as a setup man, not so good as the closer in a long stint. I believe they're bringing Borowski back as well, so that will give them some good options when they need to have someone fill in for Percival during his annual DL trip.



redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.95
    Originally posted by kazhayashi81
    I'd honestly prefer Lowe.









I'd be careful with Lowe. He's had an ERA over 5.00 for the past two seasons and has needed major run support to be successful. When he's hot; as he was in '99-'00,'02 and in the post-season this year, he can be dominant. But, when he goes bad, he goes really bad. See large stretches each of the past two seasons and most of the '01 season where he imploded in Baltimore the first week and never recovered.



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SC
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Since: 11.12.01
From: Valparaiso, IN

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#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.80
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    See large stretches each of the past two seasons and most of the '01 season where he imploded in Baltimore the first week and never recovered.


I do agree with your general point about Lowe, because there are two Derek Lowes: the one that showed up in the postseason and the one that played the entire regular season. He's great or awful, both very realistic.

Depending on a choice of home park, Lowe could be a front-end starter for a team that needs one, and given that contending teams are going to be aware of the Jekyll/Hyde aspect of Lowe, he might not reel in as much money as he could have if he wants to stay on a team with a shot. Or he could just go home to Detroit.

However Derek Lowe's terrible 2001 is quite overstated. Since he was dominant before then, going 3.53/1.44 with a .283 BAA doesn't look so hot, but outside of his nine games in April and the month of July, Lowe was pretty solid. He got hit more than usual, but he wasn't giving up a lot of runs the rest of the time. He put up a 6.75 ERA in April and 5.27 in July, but did 2.81, 2.55, 3.18 in the other months and 1.32/3.00 in six games (three starts) in September/October.

I'd say he did recover that season, and his most worrisome year-to-date is easily 2004. It's strange how Lowe tanked his contract year, and there was all that talk about how he and Boras turned down 3 years/$27 million, but now he might be in a position to go get big bucks anyway. I think mostly it's going to depend on the caution of the GMs and the type of team he WANTS to sign with. There are lots of places that could use Derek Lowe (Cleveland, Philly, Baltimore, Seattle, etc.); I think his is one of the most intriguing cases of all.

As for Percival, while I'm posting, he was hit more this year than any season in his career so far, which still didn't make him at all bad, in fact he was quite good. But he's 35 years old, getting fragile, and while the hits against him going up isn't a huge deal because he still wasn't getting hit very much, it's worth nothing that Percival used to be a great strikeout closer, and now is not. K rates dipping is something to worry about, especially from a guy that lives and dies on his fastball for one inning. Quick math:
K/9, Percival
1995 11.43
1996 12.16
1997 12.46
1998 11.74
1999 9.16
2000 8.82
2001 11.17
2002 10.93
2003 8.80
2004 6.04

That's just a big fall. I'm really not sure he presents an upgrade over LaTroy Hawkins anymore, especially for what Percival could rake in to come be dominant, particularly if everyone just assumes it was a down year and his arm wasn't 100%. I figure Percival's arm hasn't really been 100% in a long time, and with his age and yearly injury battles, if I'm a GM of a contender and I think maybe I could use Percival, I'd almost rather let him sign in Kansas City or somewhere, see what he's got in the first half, and maybe make a move during the season. It's not like an aging closer is going to pull in a bounty of prospects or anything. Without the strikeouts, Percival borders on Mesa territory.

I do think there's a possibility Percival ends up as a set-up man somewhere, but I figure he ends up in San Francisco. He was born in Fontana, CA, went to UC Riverside, has played his entire career with the Angels, and the Giants need a closer.



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Tony Stewart
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Since: 6.6.04

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#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.19
I'd have a real hard time giving Pedro top of the line money and a four year deal when the guy can only go 100 pitches before flaming out. That kind of money should only go to the top aces who have the potential to finish their own games like Curt Schilling and Mark Mulder. The name that would be at the top of my pitching list however would be Matt Clement. This guy can flat out dominate and is young. If I'm Boston this is the guy I'm eyeing before Pavano, Lowe or Martinez.

I'd really like to see the M's lay down the money for Beltran. There's still a lot of quality young pitching over there, but there may be too many holes to fill in other areas. Knowing the Mariners and their tight fisted ways their big pick up will be someone like Corey Koskie.





(edited by Tony Stewart on 5.11.04 0736)


PalpatineW
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Getting Rowdy

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#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
Re: Percival, doesn't he have a degenerative hip condition? (Yes, he does.) That said, I'm sure he'll get a contract somewhere.

    Originally posted by Tony Stewart
    The name that would be at the top of my pitching list however would be Matt Clement. This guy can flat out dominate and is young. If I'm Boston this is the guy I'm eyeing before Pavano, Lowe or Martinez.


Weirdly, the Sox already turned down a Clement for Lowe swap as part of the Nomar deal. Given Lowe's postseason performance, I can't complain, but it sure seemed odd at the time. Maybe these guys know something we don't.

Edit: From today's ATM reports.

    Originally posted by Lee Sinins
    Scott Boras says Carlos Beltran, who will be a free agent, is seeking a
    10 year contract.


Yikes.

(edited by PalpatineW on 5.11.04 0939)


"You know what I'm happiest for? I'm happiest for Bill Buckner, Calvin Schiraldi, Bob Stanley, Johnny Pesky, Ted Williams, all of the Red Sox that played before us will now be remembered for the great players and great people they were instead of all the other crap."
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SC
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Since: 11.12.01
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#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.80
    Originally posted by Tony Stewart
    The name that would be at the top of my pitching list however would be Matt Clement. This guy can flat out dominate and is young. If I'm Boston this is the guy I'm eyeing before Pavano, Lowe or Martinez.


Clement is 30, six months or so older than Pavano. Before he crapped out a little down the stretch, he was good this year. He had nice numbers, good K-rate and a fine ERA, and his W-L was hard luck because the Cubs stunk behind him, but he averaged six innings a start. Pedro averaged about six-and-a-half. Clement's career, discounting his first stint with the Padres in 98, is just over six innings a start, and every game he's pitched from 99 to now has been a start. I wouldn't pay Clement top money, nor will he get it.

I do like him a lot, and he'd be worthwhile for the Red Sox replacing Lowe. But if anyone signs him to be an ace, I get the feeling they're going to end up disappointed. He is not at all a workhorse and has given no reason to make anyone think he will become one here in the middle of his career. He's already got six seasons under his belt, so there's a read on him. He is what he is, an effective-to-very good middle of the rotation starter.

Pavano, on the other hand, had the best ERA and ERA+ of the four and averaged over seven innings a start. Even with his injury history, he's in his prime (so is Clement) and just had a fantastic season, plus his innings per jumped by a full inning this year as compared to '03, which was really his first full season as a starter.

The last few years have taught everyone and assured GMs that power arms and big bats win in the postseason nowadays, so while Pavano is more likely to pan out as a full-season ace pitcher, Clement does fit a team that could use a third arm better, since he'll be more affordable.

(edited by ScottChrist on 5.11.04 1526)

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BigSteve
Pepperoni








Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

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#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.32
SC: I wasn't making the case that any of our four returning starters are top of the line guys, but if we get Pavano and Clement and maybe a few complementary position players, we can definately contend. Lopez, I think and I hope, had a 2003 season that was a blip on the radar due to injury. Otherwise he won 29 games in two years for a losing ballclub; not great but not shabby either. Ponson, I think, is from the Colon/Livan school of Hosses who can pitch big innings because they are tender-armed. His conditioning _was_ poor, but I don't think that was the essence of his struggles. Cabrera showed promise and Bedard pitched well but needs to control his pitch count. Anyway, I don't want Lowe because 2002 was an absolute anomaly, I'm still convinced of that. And Pedro, well if the O's wanna spend the extra $ and not skimp on the other stuff, fine, but don't expect him to be a 200+ inning, 1.90 ERA Super-Ace anymore.
The Thrill
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Since: 16.4.02
From: Green Bay, WI

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#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
Catch The Thrill on "Pick of the Week": taped Tuesdays at Planet Magic in Denmark, WI; on the air Sundays @ 1 am on WB-14!

Pedro update!



ESPN sez Boston's offered Pedro a 2-year, $25.5 million deal, complete with a $13 million option for 2007 and up to $2 mil in performance bonuses.

Martinez officially hits the free agent market on Thursday.



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Heh. You think that's bad, Quezzy? I was in one league on CBS where I made precisely one personnel move (picking up Colorado's backup catcher when he got hot... I forget the name exactly), didn't bother showing up for the draft... and finished third.
- drjayphd, Good job Odessa... (2002)
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