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The W - Current Events & Politics - The Whole Freaking Middle East is Ready to Blow! (Page 2)
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ekedolphin
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Since: 12.1.02
From: Indianapolis, IN; now residing in Suffolk, VA

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#21 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.29
From the Wikipedia article "2006 Israel-Lebanon conflict":

American President George W. Bush supports the Israeli action and on July 13 said Israel has a right to defend itself. At the G8 Summit, President Bush said "the root of the problem is Hezbollah" and that the U.S. is "never going to tell a nation how to defend herself."

Oh, reaaaallly? Yet isn't that exactly what we're trying to do with North Korea? Dubya is such a fuckin' hypocrite it's not even funny. Maybe he should have said the U.S. is "never going to tell our allies how to defend themselves."

As long as we continue to essentially tell Israel they have the right to do whatever the fuck they want to Lebanon, we're complicit in the murder and forced relocation of many, many people. (It isn't the first time.) And if Iran finally says "Enough is enough" and goes after Israel, and we jump into the fray to help Israel, and we've got nukes and Iran has nukes, we've got ourselves a World War III. (And don't forget about North Korea).

I just don't see how this ends, other than in bloodshed. And I don't read Condoleeza Rice's "surprise" visit to Lebanon as anything more than a political maneuver on the part of the GOP to set her up in people's minds as a presidential candidate.

(edited by ekedolphin on 26.7.06 2010)

(edited by ekedolphin on 26.7.06 2023)

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AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
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#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
All characterizations of various people aside, let's look at some issues:

    Originally posted by ekedolpohin
    American President George W. Bush supports the Israeli action and on July 13 said Israel has a right to defend itself. At the G8 Summit, President Bush said "the root of the problem is Hezbollah" and that the U.S. is "never going to tell a nation how to defend herself."

    Oh, reaaaallly? Yet isn't that exactly what we're trying to do with North Korea?


North Korea is a different story than Israel (as is Iran) because The PRK is attempting to join (and seemingly has joined) the group of nations with Nuclear Weapons. Back in the day, 188 nations, including the USA, Russia, France, England and, yes, Iran (but not the PRK) signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (1968). Basically, the treaty says Five states are permitted by the NPT to own nuclear weapons: France (signed 1992), the People's Republic of China (1992), the Soviet Union (1968; obligations and rights now assumed by Russia), the United Kingdom (1968), and the United States (1968). These were the only states possessing such weapons at the time the treaty was opened to signature, and are also the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. These 5 Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) agree not to transfer "nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices" technology to other states, and non-NWS parties agree not to seek or develop nuclear weapons.

    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    As long as we continue to essentially tell Israel they have the right to do whatever ** they want to Lebanon, we're complicit in the murder and forced relocation of many, many people.


Your refernce was very random, and I don't know what a mass deportation (why not cite the Japanese camps during WW2 or the Indian Relocation during the trail of tears - they are at least a relevant). I propose that because we supported France and England and Poland and Chechoslovokia right to exist during WW2 and supported their war efforts and, in fact, eventually fought with them that a cite of WW2 would be a better and more relevant cite to support your assertion.

Israel, like other sovereign states, has borders - now, there's lots of people that don't believe it has a right to exist or whatever, and if you're in that camp, so be it. The basic story in the ArabPersian world is that Israel shouldn't be there, so destroy it. But I believe the UN was right to create Israel and now that they do exist and are a sovereign state, they have to figure out how to defend themselves from outside attack.

Yes, the USA is Israel's ally. As the are ours. So we sell them stuff. They also make their own stuff and buy from other countries.


    Originally posted by ekedolphin

    And if Iran finally says "Enough is enough" and goes after Israel, and we jump into the fray to help Israel, and we've got nukes and Iran has nukes, we've got ourselves a World War III.


Iran is already in it. They support and aid Syria much in the same way we aid Israel, plus they support Hezbollah, which has been essentially occupying southern Lebanon these last 10-12 years. Those rockets you keep hearing about crashing into northern Israel? Many are made by Iran and all are funneled through Iran and Syria.

    Originally posted by ekedolphin
    And I don't read Condoleeza Rice's "surprise" visit to Lebanon as anything more than a political maneuver on the part of the GOP to set her up in people's minds as a presidential candidate.



Because this NEVER happens with other secretaries of state when trouble erupts.

http://www.scc.rutgers.edu/serbian_digest/296/t296-1.htm

http://www.cnn.com/US/9906/11/us.kosovo.03/

http://www.fas.org/news/dprk/2000/dprk-001102a.htm

Oh, but that was Madeline Albright. She's not political, she's a diplomat. Yeah. It's different, right.

Look, all I am saying is that it is a different situation - PRK and Israel. Israel is being actively attacked. Actively. And they are defending themselves with conventional weapons (although the rumor is that they have the Nukes). The PRK is Not under attack, and hasn't been since - well, we signed a sort of a truce back in the 50's. The ROK has never threatened to attack them and we haven't, yet they are developing Nukes and long range missiles - a capability we haven't given to our allies, the ROK. Kim Jong Il seems a little nutsy and this president (as well as past presidents) is trying to contain his nutsyness as much as possible. If anyone, it is the PRK who are attacking the ROK (they do some surveillance and fake attacks from time to time to test their defences (it happened when I was there in '76, for example. They are a bit of a problem that I am sure will not go away on their own - someone will have to deal with them. Eventually.









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too-old-now
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#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.51
I'm not sure where to start a response, as I agree with much of what AWArulz is saying, especially about Korea.

But when it comes to

    Originally posted by AWArulz

    Israel, like other sovereign states, has borders - now, there's lots of people that don't believe it has a right to exist or whatever, and if you're in that camp, so be it. The basic story in the ArabPersian world is that Israel shouldn't be there, so destroy it.


Only partly true. Some factions in the ArabPersian world won't recognize Isreal's right to exist at all, others want Isreal to follow the UN resolutions.

    Originally posted by AWArulz

    But I believe the UN was right to create Israel and now that they do exist and are a sovereign state, they have to figure out how to defend themselves from outside attack.


I agree with this, but what gets lost is the whole question of where the borders are. Isreal continues to flagrantly defy United Nations resolutions about West Bank settlements, particularly territories occupied since 1967. Isreal outgrew the borders the UN gave it, and annexed this territory in the late 60's. Much of the fighting is about Isreal's refusal to give it back.

On March 22, 1979, the Security Council adopted Resolution No. 446. Israelís violation of Resolution 446 (sections quoted below) represents the most flagrant violation of Israel, not only of the UN but also the stated policy of our government under successive administrations:

(The Council) Determines that the policy and practices of Israel in establishing settlements in the Palestinian and Arab territories occupied since 1967 have no legal validity and constitute a serious obstruction to achieving a comprehensive and lasting peace in the Middle East; Calls once more upon Israel, as the occupying power, to abide scrupulously by the 1949 Fourth Geneva Convention, to rescind itís previous measures and to desist from taking any action which would result in changing the legal status and geographical nature and materially affecting the demographic composition of the Arab territories occupied since 1967, including Jerusalem, and in particular, not to transfer parts of its own civilian population into the occupied Arab territories.

Secondly, the current conflict was touched off not by Isreal "defending" its own borders, but because Hezbollah "kidnapped" Isreali troops. But it wasn't a kidnapping, it was the capture of troops who had crossed into Southern Lebanon. By claiming they were kidnapped they are trying to elicit sympathy and justification for going on the offensive to eliminate radicals on the other side.

Isreal knows what it is doing, and it is far from a balanced, appropriate response to Hezbollah's actions. Its clear that Isreal has a superior military power than its neighbors. We gave it to them.

The more I've looked at this to try to understand what's happening in this part of the world, the more confused I get. I don't know what's going to happen, and am more skeptical about what happened. I don't think either side is particularly trustworthy.




(edited by too-old-now on 27.7.06 1147)
AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
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#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
    Originally posted by too-old-now
    Secondly, the current conflict was touched off not by Isreal "defending" its own borders, but because Hezbollah "kidnapped" Isreali troops. But it wasn't a kidnapping, it was the capture of troops who had crossed into Southern Lebanon. By claiming they were kidnapped they are trying to elicit sympathy and justification for going on the offensive to eliminate radicals on the other side.


Actually, according to this CNN report
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/07/12/mideast/
The attack and capture happened in between Zar'it and Shtula

http://fallingrain.com/world/IS/3/Zarit.html
http://www.fallingrain.com/world/IS/3/Shetula.html

Look, I agree, Israel took some land in '67 - because they were getting killed. The countries they took it from, Egypt and Jordan, aren't really asking for it back. Egypt did the trade thing and Jordan isn't asking - or hasn't. Israel probably would give it back - if they could be reliably promised their security.

What the heck would you do if you were out on the playground, so to speak. Maybe you're the strong, big kid, but you don't have many friends and the ones you have are a long ways away. The other kids want a piece of your butt. Do you let 'em or fight 'em?



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Leroy
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Since: 7.2.02

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#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.79
    Originally posted by AWArulz
    What the heck would you do if you were out on the playground, so to speak. Maybe you're the strong, big kid, but you don't have many friends and the ones you have are a long ways away. The other kids want a piece of your butt. Do you let 'em or fight 'em?


Do you really think Israel's reaction if helping their cause, though?

I look at it this way. If anti-Castro Cuban exiles hanging out in Miami kidnapped some Cuban military, and Cuba reacted by bombing the shit out of Florida, everyone would be outraged at Cuba and rightfully so. It doesn't mean those who did the kidnapping were right, but it's really hard to defend such an over the top response.
MoeGates
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Since: 6.1.02
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#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.36
No, the proper analogy is if anti-Castro exiles hanging out in Havana (This was a cross-border raid. Hamas acknowledges that. How did that somehow get lost in this thread?) kidnapped some Cuban soldiers and took them back to Florida. If that happened, the United States government would, at the very least, force those guys to give up the captured soldiers and return them peacefully to Cuba, and in all probability throw the guys in jail. if they didn't, that would indeed be full provocation for Fidel to bomb the shit out of Florida (although that's perhaps not the wisest choice by Fidel in that particular scenario). The Lebanese government doesn't have the power to do that. That's a big problem.

Remember, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon and fulfilled all the UN resolutions pertaining to the occupation of Southern Lebanon. If this is what they get for following the UN resolutions unilaterally, are you really surprised that they're not so willing to fulfill others? If the withdrawal had actually stopped hostilities and led to a secure northern border for Israel, you don't think they'd start thinking that it's in their best interest to try it with the West Bank and Gaza?

But that's not what Iran and Syria want. So they keep funding Hizbollah, stuff like this keeps happening, and Israel has to try something different.

Israel's bottom line is border security, which is any sovereign nation's bottom line. This is why they go apeshit over stuff like this. This is why they occupy territory and build walls. They'd like diplomatic recognition, they'd like to keep as much of Jerusalem as they can, they'd like to keep control over as much of the Galilee water supply as possible, but they're bottom line has always been peace treaties and border security, and they're prepared to try anything to achieve it. That's what worked with Egypt. That's what worked with Jordan. Unfortunately, Lebanon's has never had a strong enough government to be able to control their Southern Border, so Israel's had to do it in one way or another for the last 30 years or so. Occupation and proxy armies didn't work. Unfortunately withdrawal didn't work either, which is a damn shame and for whom blame can be layed squarely at the feet of Iran and Syria. So they're trying this. Maybe this will work, probably it won't, and then Israel will try something else.



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Leroy
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Since: 7.2.02

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#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.79
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    If they didn't, that would indeed be full provocation for Fidel to bomb the shit out of Florida (although that's perhaps not the wisest choice by Fidel in that particular scenario).


Well, I don't agree. I think it's an extreme response to bomb a neighboring country when you don't immediately get your way.

    Originally posted by MoeGates
    Remember, Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon and fulfilled all the UN resolutions pertaining to the occupation of Southern Lebanon. If this is what they get for following the UN resolutions unilaterally, are you really surprised that they're not so willing to fulfill others? If the withdrawal had actually stopped hostilities and led to a secure northern border for Israel, you don't think they'd start thinking that it's in their best interest to try it with the West Bank and Gaza?


And occupation of Gaza and the West Bank has led to peace in those areas?

    Originally posted by MoeGates
    Occupation and proxy armies didn't work. Unfortunately withdrawal didn't work either, which is a damn shame and for whom blame can be layed squarely at the feet of Iran and Syria. So they're trying this. Maybe this will work, probably it won't, and then Israel will try something else.


So what you're saying is that Israel has tried more extreme measure in the past to ensure border security, which failed, so now continuous bombing of a country that cannot control the group that initiated the tension is a logical solution to the problem.

Look, I don't like being in a position of defending Hizbollah, because they are pretty culpable in all of this (although I'm more distressed by the fact that I disagree with you - I think that's a first). But Israel's reaction does nothing to secure anything - and it certainly costs the lives of plenty of civilians in the process. How this helps Israel's cause - whether its peace or empathy - is beyond me.



(edited by Leroy on 27.7.06 1840)
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.41
If Sharon doesn't have the stroke last winter, does Israel respond in a similar manner?
Nice to see Al-Qaeda express their support for Hezbollah and announce their intentions to turn everything from Spain to Iraq into Islamic territory. Of course, I thought Spain was on the Al-Qaeda Ramadan Card list for pulling out of Iraq, but, I guess they weren't satisfied.
Much as Metternich's Concert of Europe eventually collapsed and Wilson's League of Nations was stillborn, is it time to look at Roosevelt's United Nations as a product of a by gone era? I mean, does anyone actually pay attention to a U.N. resolution? And, UN peacekeepers inspire less fear than the Swiss Guard.
eke: wikipedia? Plenty of legitimate places to get bash Bush material without sinking to the old 'bunch of 8th graders in Long Island making stuff up' website.
AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
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#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
    Originally posted by Leroy
    Do you really think Israel's reaction if helping their cause, though?

    I look at it this way. If anti-Castro Cuban exiles hanging out in Miami kidnapped some Cuban military, and Cuba reacted by bombing ** Florida, everyone would be outraged at Cuba and rightfully so. It doesn't mean those who did the kidnapping were right, but it's really hard to defend such an over the top response.


First, slight alteration on Moe's scenario - a couple of anti-castroites in Miami run their boat over to Cuba, grab a couple of his soldiers, run back to Miami, hide the soldiers and say that they want to exchange them for Elian.

The US Government is, at the very least going to respond and deal with this - find the soldiers and release them if they can and deal with the kidnappers. Lebanon did nothing.

This is kind of a newsy Israeli blog, but it covers the bases. Obviously, Israel didn't expect much out of Lebanon.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/737634.html

If Castro's forces chased the guys back to Miami, well, I suspect we would have strong enough control of our border to repel them, but Lebanon doesn't.

A few historical perspectives.

The Indonesian civil war started because a series of generals were kidnapped and killed by the secessionists.

WW1 started because a country's leader was assassinated by a nationalist (A Croatian, I believe) wanting his country to be free - of course, this guy was supported by Serbia, and then, pretty soon, everyone was in on it.

A few people from New England were unexpectedly killed one day because of their protest of taxes by the British and pretty soon we had the Revolutionary war.

It has happened before, especially when countries lose control over their sovereignty - so perhaps you can see why Israel is so passionate about it.




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Corajudo
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Since: 7.11.02
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#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.73
    Originally posted by Leroy
    So what you're saying is that Israel has tried more extreme measure in the past to ensure border security, which failed, so now continuous bombing of a country that cannot control the group that initiated the tension is a logical solution to the problem.

What would you do if you were Israel? Occupation didn't work. Withdrawal didn't work. The UN didn't fulfill their resolutions (big surprise). Israeli soldiers get kidnapped sporadically by Hezbollah. Hezbollah continues to stockpile missiles and weapons. Then, you have this latest provocation. How do you respond?

The bottom line is that Israel's goal is survival and ultimately peace. I see Iran as the biggest problem and the ultimate root cause (much more than Syria; Syria's rulers only care about preserving their power). The question is how to deal with Iran.




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Leroy
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#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54
    Originally posted by AWArulz
    A few historical perspectives.

    The Indonesian civil war started because a series of generals were kidnapped and killed by the secessionists.

    WW1 started because a country's leader was assassinated by a nationalist (A Croatian, I believe) wanting his country to be free - of course, this guy was supported by Serbia, and then, pretty soon, everyone was in on it.

    A few people from New England were unexpectedly killed one day because of their protest of taxes by the British and pretty soon we had the Revolutionary war.

    It has happened before, especially when countries lose control over their sovereignty - so perhaps you can see why Israel is so passionate about it.



I thought Archduke Ferdinand was Austrian. I'll look it up later.

None of the historical perspectives you provided happened in isolation - all of them had plenty of tension building up to them - so I'm not sure exactly what comparison you are making by simply pointing these out. I think, if anything, it shows that occupation is a great way to lead to upheaval, instability, and violence.

    Originally posted by Corajudo

    What would you do if you were Israel?


Well, it's not very useful to run around the in the "How does this help? What would you have them do?" circle. At the risk of repeating myself, bombing Lebanon seems like a very extreme and counter-productive response. I still think a more restrained approach would have yielded better results - or at least, made Israel's plight seem a bit more sympatheic.

So I'll phrase the question a bit differently: if this is not an overreaction, then what would be?
AWArulz
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#32 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
    Originally posted by Leroy
    I thought Archduke Ferdinand was Austrian. I'll look it up later.


He was - Austria was running Bosnia/Serbia/Croatia at the time.

    Originally posted by leroy
    >None of the historical perspectives you provided happened in isolation - all of them had plenty of tension building up to them - so I'm not sure exactly what comparison you are making by simply pointing these out.



And you think this incident did? Hezbollah has been attacking Israel for 15 years - it hasn't been that long since the LAST time Israel felt they had to go in and take care of them in south Lebanon.

    Originally posted by Leroy
    So I'll phrase the question a bit differently: if this is not an overreaction, then what would be?



They haven't taken over the country (yet) and they haven't gone to the source of the issue (Syria and Iran). But I am not sure I would even place that as overreaction. An overreaction would be to ignore this and pray for peace with these barbarians, That is, without backing up their prayers with action.



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Since: 7.11.02
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#33 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.73
    Originally posted by leroy
    Well, it's not very useful to run around the in the "How does this help? What would you have them do?" circle. At the risk of repeating myself, bombing Lebanon seems like a very extreme and counter-productive response. I still think a more restrained approach would have yielded better results - or at least, made Israel's plight seem a bit more sympatheic.

    So I'll phrase the question a bit differently: if this is not an overreaction, then what would be?

I'm not sure how your question doesn't fit into the "How does this help? What would you have them do?" circle.

Regardless, an overreaction would be to purposely target civilians, for obvious reasons. And, following last night's tragedy, Israel is suspending the offensive for 24 hours to allow for more evacuations and humanitarian aid. Not sure if Hezbollah would have done that. Bear in mind that, again, Israel isn't targeting civilians. Rather, they are targeting military targets, which Hezbollah places in such a way as to maximize the probability of civilian casualties.

Another overreaction would be to go after Syria. They don't have oil, don't share an ideological foundation with Iran, and have an administration trying to keep power however they can. I think they can be coerced (bribed if you prefer) into ending support of Hezbollah in exchange for aid and greater security.

That being said, what do you mean by a more restrained approach? Negotiation hasn't worked, evacuation didn't work, relying on the international community didn't work. What now?

I hate to see Lebanese civilian casualties too, but I can't condemn Israel for responding to continued terrorist attacks on their cities and kidnappings of their soldiers. The blame falls squarely on Hezbollah, and on an international community that does not enforce their agreements. Israel complied with the UN resolution about evacuating Lebanon. And, what did they get in return?




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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
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#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.02
Perhaps much of our problem trying to understand this conflict revolves around the fact that we are trying to consider this from a rational perspective. The Muslim extremists simply can't (won't) respond as we would. Israel is in a no-win situation that many countries helped put them in. However, after nearly 60 years of existence what do they do? Not responding doesn't work, responding with force doesn't work. And in the process, more terrorists are being created.



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#35 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
According to Yonitheblogger, Syria thinks that Israel will attack them (Syria) by morning, their time. It's like 4:30AM there right now as I post.

http://www.yonitheblogger.com/2006/08/insider_info.html
Yoni's a former IDF soldier and Kennesset member

(edited by AWArulz on 1.8.06 2235)


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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
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#36 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.02
    Originally posted by AWArulz
    According to Yonitheblogger, Syria thinks that Israel will attack them (Syria) by morning, their time. It's like 4:30AM there right now as I post.

    http://www.yonitheblogger.com/2006/08/insider_info.html
    Yoni's a former IDF soldier and Kennesset member

    (edited by AWArulz on 1.8.06 2235)


I just doubt Israel would do it, it wouldn't mke sense to formally attack a nation as such when you are having trouble with what is already on your plate.



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AWArulz
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Since: 28.1.02
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#37 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by AWArulz
      According to Yonitheblogger, Syria thinks that Israel will attack them (Syria) by morning, their time. It's like 4:30AM there right now as I post.

      http://www.yonitheblogger.com/2006/08/insider_info.html
      Yoni's a former IDF soldier and Kennesset member

      (edited by AWArulz on 1.8.06 2235)


    I just doubt Israel would do it, it wouldn't mke sense to formally attack a nation as such when you are having trouble with what is already on your plate.


I later heard Yoni on Hugh Hewitt's radio show ( http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/ ) say that apparently, that was an order that came down from Syria's high command, but as far as he or his contacts knew, that was and is not the intention of the IDF. Yoni seemed to think that Syria might want to enter the war, but needed a "provocation" and it might be getting ready to be manufactured.

Conspiracy theories come from every source. Not just from posters on an erstwhile wrestling board.



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Or indeed "The Need for Speed". Pretty interesting reading given the number of friendly fire incidents in both the 1st Gulf war and this one http://abcnews.go.com/sections/2020/DailyNews/2020_pilotpills021220.
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