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27.8.14 2027
The W - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 3
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Texas Kelly
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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.01
Ladies and gentlemen, the following public service message is brought to you by your friends from D-Generation X, who would like to remind each and every one of you that if you're not down with that, we've got two words for you...

THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 3

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking. For the full listing, check ESPN (sports.espn.go.com), which provides a more detailed breakdown than the "official" listing at FOX Sports.

1. Ohio State [1, 1, 2]
2. Michigan [2, 2, 1]
3. West Virginia [3, 3, 13] (+1)
4. Florida [7, 7, 4] (+2)
5. Louisville [5, 5, 9] (+3)
6. Auburn [6, 6, 7] (-1)
7. Texas [4, 4, 12]
8. Southern California [9, 9, 6] (-5)
9. Notre Dame [10, 10, 5]
10. California-Berkeley [11, 11, 3]
11. Tennessee [8, 8, 10]
12. Rutgers [14, 15, 8] (+2)
13. Arkansas [12, 12, 14]
14. Boise State [15, 14, 11] (+1)
15. Boston College [16, 16, 16] (+2)
16. Wisconsin [17, 17, 15] (+2)

You think a five-spot drop is bad for Southern California? It's about to get much, much worse. Their weaknesses have been consistently exposed by inferior teams for over a month, and after a recovery game at Stanford, they've got a month of hell coming up against Cal, Oregon, and Notre Dame. The only positive for them is that all three of those games are in the friendly confines of the Coliseum. Nevertheless, I can almost guarantee there will be at least one more loss and possibly two before it's over - Southern Cal is just not that good a team this year, and this past week was the exclamation point on the proof.

The other big dive of the week was taken by Clemson, who got smashed by Virginia Tech just one week after smashing Georgia Tech and after yours truly declared them among the elite. Well, maybe they're still among the elite in the ACC, which is proving itself week after week to be the weakest of the six major conferences - a welcome change from all the Big East bashing I've had to do in the past few years. Perhaps the bad karma the ACC generated in stealing Miami, BC and Virginia Tech from the Big East is finally catching up with them. (What's even better is that the only one of the three teams the ACC stole so that they could have their precious conference championship game - which ended up sending the league's fifth-best team to the BCS last year - is Boston College, which was the throw-in to the two teams they really wanted, Miami & Virginia Tech. Justice, indeed.)

GAMES TO WATCH THIS WEEK
West Virginia at Louisville (Thursday, 7:30 PM) is, of course, a must see, as the great Big East shakeout will finally begin. While the Mountaineers and the Cardinals have been the favorites all along... do not discredit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights, also undefeated. They don't have much of a passing game, but with their running attack and defense, they can beat anyone on any given night. Missouri at Nebraska (Saturday, TBD) is a de-facto Big 12 North Division title game. With Kansas State having already lost to both, whoever wins will have a nearly insurmountable gap over the other two. Finally, Boston College at Wake Forest (Saturday, 7:00 PM) will be crucial to determining who will emerge from the ACC Atlantic Division, and the acid test for figuring out whether the Demon Deacons are truly for real.

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Teams with an equal number of losses are considered to be in the same tier. (This means that a 3-0 record in conference play would be just as good as a 5-0 record and better than a 4-1 record for the purposes of projections.) Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths (for conferences that do not have title games) or bids to conference title games. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, or in the instance where the two teams projected to meet for a conference title have the same record in conference play, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

MAJOR CONFERENCES
ACC: Georgia Tech (def. Maryland)
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Michigan
Big 12: Texas (def. Missouri)
Pac-10: California-Berkeley
SEC: Arkansas (def. Florida)

OTHER BIDS
Non-BCS Conference Auto Bid: Boise State (WAC; #14 higher than ACC champion)
Other Auto Bids: Ohio State (Big Ten; #1), Florida (SEC; #4 with no SEC rep in title game)
At-Large Entries: Notre Dame (Independent; #9)

First question I'm sure will come up: Maryland in the ACC title game? Yup, they've got the edge at the moment, given that none of the ACC Atlantic Division leaders have played each other yet. (Divisional record is the second tiebreaker, and right now, Maryland's 2-0 trumps BC's 2-1 and Wake's 1-1.) Whether or not this will last in the coming weeks is, of course, up to date, but you guys know the rule with the projections by now.

Here's an interesting one to wrap your head around: In the Big Ten, the tiebreaker that comes after the head-to-head matchup and the overall record (assuming no head-to-head matchup between the tied teams) is the teams' recent history of inclusion in the BCS, with the team that was in the BCS most recently being eliminated first. So what does this mean?, you ask. Essentially, this means that by the book, I have to project Michigan as the Big Ten conference winner and Ohio State as the at-large entry until they actually play each other, just because Ohio State's been in the BCS more recently than Michigan. One of those quirks that can only happen in college football, LOL.

I made this mistake last week but I'm correcting it with this week's entry: According to the new BCS by-laws, Boise State would actually get an automatic bid at #14 at this point. Of course, if they make it to #12 or higher, their bid would be guaranteed irregardless of the circumstances, but at #13-16, should a major conference champion finish behind them in the rankings (and given the overall weakness of the ACC this year, that's a distinct possibility) the bid would also be guaranteed. With the prestige factor sure to get Notre Dame into the BCS if they're eligible, there's a lot riding on Louisville this coming week to knock off West Virginia, because even at #5, they're getting squeezed out right now.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
National Championship Game: Ohio State v. Michigan
Rose Bowl: California-Berkeley v. Notre Dame
Orange Bowl: Georgia Tech v. Florida
Fiesta Bowl: Texas v. Boise State
Sugar Bowl: Arkansas v. West Virginia

Big Ten auto-entry Ohio State & Big Ten champion Michigan are automatically placed into the National Championship Game due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. Pac-10 champion California-Berkeley is placed into the Rose Bowl, SEC champion Arkansas is placed into the Sugar Bowl, ACC champion Georgia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl, and Big 12 champion Texas is placed into the Fiesta Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins.

Since the Rose Bowl loses one of its conference champions to the title game, it gets to replace that team before the other bowls make their selections. It chooses independent at-large Notre Dame to be its second representative. (The Rose Bowl, according to BCS by-laws, gets top priority over all BCS games other than the National Championship Game in filling its vacancies.)

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's proximity to the National Championship Game in scheduling, with games scheduled nearer to the Championship Game receiving higher priority. Based on this, the BCS has established the following priority order for this year's bowls:

1. Sugar Bowl
2. Orange Bowl
3. Fiesta Bowl

The new BCS by-laws do not impose restrictions on selecting teams for final allocations in the vein like "conference champions cannot be listed last" as in previous years. Hence, it is prudent to presume that the remaining selections will be made in order of BCS rankings (with exceptions made where needed to avoid matching teams from the same conference against each other). Fortunately, this is not needed here: Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Sugar Bowl, SEC auto-entry Florida is selected by the Orange Bowl, and WAC auto-entry Boise State is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

Note that for obvious reasons, no shifts would be made to change the National Championship Game from matching the #1 and #2 ranked teams, even if (as projected) it involves the meeting of two teams from the same conference.



e-mail me at texas (dot) kelly (at) gmailread a bunch of incoherent nonsense
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redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 422 days
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.51
Oregon State beating USC gives Boise State some credibility, as they blasted Oregon State earlier this year. Kept saying USC would be picked off, didn't expect it this week though.
Here is my new complaint: If you want to put Auburn, Tennessee or Florida in the Top 5 of the Coaches and Harris Polls, I would completely understand. However, this Texas love affair the voters have is beyond comprehension. They needed a fumble and a late kick to beat a mediocre Nebraska team, and they needed to come from 21 down and survive 2 very close 4th down spots to fend off a mediocre Texas Tech team. They did lose by a decisive 17 to Ohio State, and their only quality win is Oklahoma. What qualifies them as the #4 team in both polls then? Auburn has knocked off LSU and Florida, Florida has knocked off LSU and Tennessee and Tennessee has knocked off California.
Memo to the Florida Offense: A football game is composed of 4 quarters, with 2 of those quarters occurring post halftime. It would be beneficial to your team if you decided to play the last 2 quarters of games.
The key team for all 1 loss teams to root for is Dave Wannestadt's Pitt Panthers. They have a QB and if they get an unbeaten West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, they might have a punchers shot of knocking them off. Of course, they have Wannestadt, which is a huge detriment.
1/3 of the way towards getting the Commanders-in-Chief Trophy for Notre Dame. They and Cal were the most negatively impacted by the USC loss, as they both lose a potential late season win over an unbeaten team.
Factoring in home field, I'm thinking Ohio State will be at least a 9.5 point favorite against Michigan.
Nice of the real Michigan State team to show up again.
I'll take West Virginia to outscore Louisville Thursday, and I'll take an upset pick of LSU going to Rocky Top and winning. And, I'll take it one step further and take out my pet peeve with Oklahoma State beating Texas outright.

(edited by redsoxnation on 29.10.06 1932)

(edited by redsoxnation on 29.10.06 1934)
Quezzy
Knackwurst








Since: 6.1.02
From: The Moon

Since last post: 9 days
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.39
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    Memo to the Florida Offense: A football game is composed of 4 quarters, with 2 of those quarters occurring post halftime. It would be beneficial to your team if you decided to play the last 2 quarters of games.


It's now being reported that Chris Leak suffered a concussion and didn't tell anybody which certainly had an effect on the second half of the game. You can file this under tough but very stupid. Chris Leak has handled the Tim Tebow stuff well this year but I wonder if it finally got to him and he didn't want to say anything to the doctors and coaches because he was worried about Tebow taking over.

I think LSU could definitely beat Tennessee. They're kind of under the radar right now after the two losses but they could easily win out be 10 - 2 with their two losses being to top 6 teams.

I don't think USC is going to win that trio of games at the end of the season but that doesn't necessarily mean they're doomed. If they do win them then they have a schedule that will allow them to move up the most. Plus USC is still ahead of Auburn, Louisville, West Virginia and Texas in the computer rankings.



Lance's Response:

THAT IS AWESOME!
StingArmy
Andouille








Since: 3.5.03
From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey

Since last post: 17 days
Last activity: 14 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.88
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    Well, maybe they're still among the elite in the ACC, which is proving itself week after week to be the weakest of the six major conferences - a welcome change from all the Big East bashing I've had to do in the past few years.

So far this season I've been one of the first to talk about how weak the ACC is, but looking at the latest polls, I notice that the ACC is tied with the SEC for most teams ranked in the top 25 (5 a piece). Is the ACC really all that weak or is it truly just a case of each of us beating up on one another?


    Perhaps the bad karma the ACC generated in stealing Miami, BC and Virginia Tech from the Big East is finally catching up with them.

Also, somewhat off-topic but while we're talking about stealing teams from other conferences, practically every single old ACC fan (meaning a fan of Georgia Tech, Clemson, UNC, Duke, Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, NC State, or Maryland) I've talked to HATES the new ACC. Primary reason given? No more home-and-home scheduling for basketball season. I guess that's the price we pay for a more lucrative football season. Bah.

- StingArmy
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
    Originally posted by StingArmy
    Is the ACC really all that weak or is it truly just a case of each of us beating up on one another?


More like "bolstering stature by managing to win games against one another."
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    1/3 of the way towards getting the Commanders-in-Chief Trophy for Notre Dame.


Commander In Chief's Trophy is between the 3 service academies: Army, Navy, and Air Force. Navy can win it with a win over Army at the end of the season. Or Army can win it with wins over Air Force and Navy.
Mayhem
Scrapple








Since: 25.4.03
From: Nashville, TN

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.01

Ahhh ... once again, Tennessee gets the shaft ...
thecubsfan
Scrapple
Moderator








Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

Since last post: 7 hours
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      Originally posted by redsoxnation
      1/3 of the way towards getting the Commanders-in-Chief Trophy for Notre Dame.


    Commander In Chief's Trophy is between the 3 service academies: Army, Navy, and Air Force. Navy can win it with a win over Army at the end of the season. Or Army can win it with wins over Air Force and Navy.


WOOOSH



thecubsfan.com - CMLLBlog
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 422 days
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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.51
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      Originally posted by redsoxnation
      1/3 of the way towards getting the Commanders-in-Chief Trophy for Notre Dame.


    Commander In Chief's Trophy is between the 3 service academies: Army, Navy, and Air Force. Navy can win it with a win over Army at the end of the season. Or Army can win it with wins over Air Force and Navy.





Was a joke about Notre Dame playing the 3 service academies over 4 weeks.
Difference between the ACC having 5 in the Top 25 and the SEC having 5 in the Top 25 is that the SEC is mainly in the Top 10, while the ACC is mainly in the 17-25 region. At this point, the best non-conference win for the ACC is BC knocking off BYU. By comparison, the SEC has Tennessee knocking off Cal, the Pac-10 USC beating Arkansas and Oregon 'beating' Oklahoma, the Big East has West Virginia over Maryland and Louisville over Miami, and the Big 10 has Ohio State winning in Texas and Michigan winning at Notre Dame. Only conference that matches the ACC in this regard is the Big XII, which goes back to the Texas as 4 argument.
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 16 days
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
    Originally posted by Mayhem

    Ahhh ... once again, Tennessee gets the shaft ...


I'd say right now it doesn't really matter. Tennessee is a longshot to be an at-large BCS team and doesn't belong in the national title game. I'd say they have more of a claim to a BCS birth than Cal, Notre Dame, probably USC and maybe Texas, but much less of one than Florida, Auburn, WVU and Louisville. If the Gators stumble and Tennessee wins the SEC while WVU and Louisville both lose, than I'd say it's a toss up between Texas, Tennessee and the Michigan/OSU loser (though I think a one-loss Ohio State has more of a claim than a one-loss Michigan), but until all that happens I think the only team in danger of getting the shaft is the WVU/Louisville winner.

EDIT: The way I think it's all going to end up:

Big East: West Virginia (12-0)
ACC: Doesn't matter. I'll say Georgia Tech, though I'd LOVE to see Wake Forest go to a BCS game.
SEC: Florida (12-1 after beating Arkansas in the SEC title game)
Pac-10: USC (10-2 with a loss to Notre Dame)
Big Ten: Ohio State (12-0)
Big XII: Texas (12-1)
Leaving the at-larges: Notre Dame (11-1), Michigan(11-1), Auburn (11-1) and Boise State (12-0).

(edited by TheBucsFan on 29.10.06 2106)
Texas Kelly
Lap cheong








Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 1 day
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.01
Ladies and gentlemen, the following public service message is brought to you by your friends from D-Generation X, who would like to remind each and every one of you that if you're not down with that, we've got two words for you...

As crazy as this sounds, guys... Louisville winning last night and being the team to go on a national title run may have been the better option for the Big East's hopes of having a national title game representative in the long run. The computers' outlook on the Cardinals is much more favorable right now (Louisville was #9 in the computers in the last BCS, compared to #13 for West Virginia) and it can only improve in the short term if they keep winning.

Now, the Louisville/Rutgers game next week takes on big national title implications, and just keep in mind: The Scarlet Knights might be a heartwarming underdog story considering where you guys have come from, but next week, they're the villains as far as the Big East big-heads are concerned, because even if Rutgers beats Louisville and run the table, they don't have the strength (in the human polls) to contend for a national title the way Louisville does.






e-mail me at texas (dot) kelly (at) gmailread a bunch of incoherent nonsense
now 52% more incoherent!
smark/net attack Advisory System is Elevatedsmark/net attack Advisory System Status is: Elevated
(Holds; June 18, 2006)
While the switch from Cena to RVD should alleviate some complaints, the inevitability of the belt's return to Cena (note where Summerslam is this year) and the poor initial showing by the new ECW are enough to keep the indicator where it is for now. The pieces are in place, though, especially on RAW, for improvements to be made to the IWC's psyche in the near future.
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