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The W - Football - The State of the BCS - Week 2
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Texas Kelly
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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
THE STATE OF THE BCS - Week 2

CURRENT BCS STANDINGS
The bracketed sequence following a team's name in the BCS standings refers to (in order) the team's Harris Interactive poll ranking, the team's USA Today coaches' poll ranking, and the average of the six computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Richard Billingsley, Colley Matrix, Kenneth Massey, Jeff Sagarin, and Peter Wolfe). The average of these three rankings determines the team's BCS ranking.

1. Texas [2, 2, 1] (+1)
2. Southern California [1, 1, 2] (-1)
3. Virginia Tech [3, 3, 3]
4. Georgia [4, 4, 5]
5. Alabama [5, 5, 4]
6. California-Los Angeles [7, 8, 7] (+3)
7. Miami [6, 6, T11] (+1)
8. Louisiana State [8, 7, 10] (-2)
9. Penn State [11, 12, 6] (+1)
10. Florida State [9, 9, 15] (+1)
11. Oregon [14, 14, 9] (+2)
12. Wisconsin [15, 15, 8] (+2)
...
17. West Virginia [18, 17, T11]

-----

The interesting story that got lost in my pro-Notre Dame rant last week is the remarkable disparity between the human polls and the computer polls this year. Notre Dame would be in the top twelve if not for their low ranking by the computers, but in all other cases, it seems to be the computers that are being beneficiary and the humans that are being pessimistic. Texas' leap over USC (which will be very short-lived - the difference is .0007 and Texas will surely drop back to #2 next week after their strength of schedule takes a hit, assuming that the Trojans don't lose) is solely due to the computers; and three other teams (Penn State and the two new top 12 entries this week, Oregon & Wisconsin) owe their rise solely due to the computers' enthusiasm about them. Now, if only they could be as enthusiastic about Notre Dame, they'd be getting things right...

PROJECTED BERTHS
Projected automatic conference berths are based on a team's record in conference play. Mandated conference tiebreakers are used where possible to break ties for automatic conference berths. In the case of a tie that cannot be broken, the tied teams' BCS ranking is used to break the tie.

ACC: Virginia Tech
Big East: West Virginia
Big Ten: Penn State
Big 12: Texas
Pac-10: Southern California
SEC: Georgia
At-Large #1: Alabama (SEC)
At-Large #2: California-Los Angeles (Pac-10)

-----

Assuming things remain with the status quo in the Big Ten, the tilt between Penn State & Wisconsin in Happy Valley in a little less than two weeks is shaping up as a de-facto championship game. Both teams should have no problems making it to that matchup (Penn State hosts Purdue this week, while Wisconsin travels to Illinois). Northwestern (a team that was clearly overlooked) and Ohio State will both be watching that game very closely.

Georgia's grip on the toughest conference in the land, the SEC, now seems tenuous at best. Even if they hold the fort against Florida this week without Shockley, they've still got Auburn and a date with Alabama, LSU or Auburn again (depending on how things go) in the SEC championship game. That's a lot for them to go through.

PROJECTED MATCHUPS
Rose Bowl: Southern California v. Texas
Fiesta Bowl: Alabama v. West Virginia
Sugar Bowl: Georgia v. California-Los Angeles
Orange Bowl: Virginia Tech v. Penn State

Big 12 champion Texas & Pac-10 champion Southern California are automatically placed into the Rose Bowl due to their #1 & #2 rankings, respectively. ACC champion Virginia Tech is placed into the Orange Bowl and SEC champion Georgia is placed into the Sugar Bowl due to traditional conference tie-ins. The only bowl to lose a traditional tie-in is the Fiesta Bowl (Big 12 champion Texas) so it gets first choice of the remaining teams. Usually, the selections to fill the remaining slots after the national championship game and the traditional conference tie-ins are done in accord with BCS rankings, meaning that the Fiesta would select SEC at-large Alabama as its first representative.

Priority for the remaining selections is based on a bowl's payout and its priority stature in previous years. (Each bowl submits a list of its top three teams, and the bowl is given the highest-listed team available based on the bowl's priority.) The BCS has established the following priority order based on these factors for this year's bowls:

1. Orange Bowl
2. Fiesta Bowl
3. Sugar Bowl

By rule, if a conference champion is available for this last stage of allocations, they cannot be ranked third on the list that a bowl submits. This means that by default, Pac-10 at-large UCLA would be allocated to the Sugar Bowl (since it has the lowest priority). Finally, based on BCS rankings, Big Ten champion Penn State is selected by the Orange Bowl, and Big East champion West Virginia is selected by the Fiesta Bowl.

(edited by Texas Kelly on 24.10.05 1750)

(edited by Texas Kelly on 24.10.05 2229)

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Dutchie
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Since: 29.1.02
From: PA

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.83
Texas' #1 bid should be short-lived as USC has 3 (currently) ranked teams left on their schedule in Cal, Fresno State, and UCLA. Texas plays OK State, Baylor, Kansas, and Texas A&M (and the Big 12 conference championship game), with I think only A&M having a winning conference and non-conference record. SOS alone will put USC back in the #1 spot by the end of the regular season.

SOS is pretty much the reason there's a big disparity between human and computer polls after you get past the Top Six. Florida State and Miami are getting hammered on their SOS by the computer, whereas a team like Penn State is helped because the Big Ten race usually goes down to the end of the season with teams knocking each other off left and right. Notre Dame's hopes for a BCS bid should depend pretty heavily on Michigan's season from here on out. Should they win out (including vs. Ohio State), that helps ND's SOS.

The Big Ten is going to be messy again at the end of the regular season without a championship game. Northwestern, PSU, Wisconsin, and Ohio State all have just one conference loss. PSU has beaten Northwestern and Ohio State and plays Wisconsin in 2 weeks. Wisconsin lost to Northwestern and doesn't play Ohio State. Ohio State plays Northwestern in 3 weeks. So, in order for there to be a clear-cut conference winner, PSU has to beat Wisconsin, then Ohio State and Northwestern each have to lose one more game... right? This stuff hurts my head. As long as Penn State gets to any game that is played after November 19th, I am happy.

Virginia Tech, not West Virginia, is playing Boston College on Saturday. That would throw a monkey wrench into the ACC standings. West Virginia is a Big East team. Now, if 2 teams can beat WVU and Rutgers can win out, Rutgers will be YOUR Big East champions with an automatic BCS bid. That would be awesome.



"You rock, Rolfski. You are one hep cat."
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Roy.
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Since: 25.2.04
From: Keystone State

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.84
I would be very surprised if Penn State isn't in the Fiesta Bowl if they get a BCS birth. People who seem to know these things (i.e. the people I work with/for) appear to be preparing for Tempe, and supposedly have gotten phone calls from game officials sending out feelers.

Now I just have to convince those in charge that I could be a valuable member of the gameday staff (so I get a sideline pass).
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
Here's an in-depth look at the BCS confs. Next week I'll remove eliminated teams from the update, but keep bowl eligible teams

Records (div, conf, overall); in div order if available

ACC - Atlantic
1. FSU (2-0. 4-1, 6-1) *3 div games left; holds win over BC; will clinch Atlantic with 2 div wins over NCSU and MD
2. BC (2-1, 3-1, 6-1) *MD & NCSU left; needs to win out w/ FSU loss
3. Clem (2-2, 2-3, 4-3) *FSU left, must win to stay alive
4. MD (1-1, 2-2, 4-3) *3 div games left
5. Wake (2-3, 2-3, 3-5) *out
6. NCSU (0-2, 1-4, 2-4) *3 div games left

ACC - Coastal (top 5, Duke out)
1. VT (2-0, 4-0, 7-0) *3 div games left
2. GT (2-1, 2-2, 4-2) *VA & Miami left
3t NC (1-1, 2-1, 3-3) *3 div games left, beat VA 7-5
3t VA (1-1, 2-3, 4-3) *3 div games left
5. Miami (0-0, 2-1, 5-1) *all div games left



Big East (top 7, Syracuse out)
1. WV (3-0, 6-1) *4 conf games left; will clinch with 3 conf wins plus loss by the 4th team, or 3 losses by UConn, USF, RU, and Pitt.
2. Pitt (3-1, 4-4) *3 conf games left
2t RU (3-1, 5-2) *3 conf games left; lost to WV
4. USF (1-1, 3-3) *5 conf games left
5t UConn (1-2, 4-3) *4 conf games left
5t Lou (1-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left
5t Cin (1-2, 3-4) *4 conf games left



Big Ten
1t PSU (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays Purdue, Wisc, MSU; not Iowa
1t Wisc (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays Illinois, PSU, Iowa; not OSU
3t OSU (3-1, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to PSU; plays NW, Minn, and Mich
3t NW'ern (3-1, 5-2) *4 conf games left
5t. Iowa (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left; lost to OSU; plays NW, Wisc, Minn
5t. Mich (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left; Plays NW'ern, Indiana, OSU; lost to Wisc, Minn
7. Minn (2-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to PSU, Wisc; plays Iowa, OSU; Needs to win out and get key losses
8t Ind (1-3, 4-3) *4 conf games left
8t MSU (1-3, 4-3) *4 conf games left
10t Ill (0-4, 2-5) *4 conf games left
10t Purdue (0-4, 2-5) *4 conf games left



Big XII - North
1. Mizzu (2-0, 3-1, 5-2) *3 div games left
2t KSU (1-0, 1-3, 4-3) *4 div games left
2t Colorado (1-0, 3-1, 5-2) *4 div games left
4. Neb (1-1, 2-2, 5-2) *3 div games left
5. ISU (0-1, 1-3, 4-3) *4 div games left
6. Kansas (0-2, 0-4, 3-4) *3 div games left

Big XII - South
1t TAMU (2-0, 3-1, 5-2) *3 div games left
1t Texas (2-0, 4-0, 7-0) *3 div games left
3. OK (1-1, 3-1, 4-3) *3 div games left
4. TTech (0-1, 3-1, 6-1) *4 div games left
5t Baylor (0-2, 1-3, 4-3) *3 div games left
5t OKSU (0-2, 0-4, 3-4) *3 div games left


Pac-10
1t USC (4-0, 7-0) *4 conf games left; plays UCLA, Stan; beat OR; DNP ORSU
1t UCLA (4-0, 7-0) *4 conf games left; plays USC, Stan; DNP OR
3. OR (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays ORS; beat Stan; lost to USC; DNP UCLA
4. Stanford (3-1, 4-2) *4 conf games left
5. Cal (3-2, 6-2) *3 conf games left
6. ORSU (2-2, 4-3) *4 conf games left
7. ASU (1-3, 3-4) *4 conf games left
8t WSU (0-4, 3-4) *4 conf games left
8t AZ (0-4, 1-6) *4 conf games left
8t WA (0-4, 1-6) *4 conf games left


SEC - East
1. GA (3-0, 5-0, 7-0) *2 div games left; Clinches with win over FL and FL loss
2. FL (2-0, 3-2, 5-2) *3 div games left
3. SC (2-1, 2-3, 4-3) *TN & FL left
4t Vandy (0-2, 2-3, 4-4) *3 div games left
4t KY (0-2, 0-3, 1-5) *3 div games left
4t TN (0-2, 2-3, 3-3) *3 div games left

SEC - West
1. LSU (2-0, 4-1, 5-1) *3 div games left
2. Alabama (1-0, 5-0, 7-0) *4 div games left
3. Auburn (2-1, 3-1, 5-2) *Miss & Alabama left
4. Miss (0-1, 0-4, 2-5) *4 div games left
5t AR (0-2, 0-4, 2-5) *3 div games left
5t MSU (0-2, 0-4, 2-5) *3 div games left


(edited by Zeruel on 24.10.05 1859)


The Catastrophic Annihilation War Room
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BigSteve
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Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2841 days
Last activity: 2569 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.99
Zeruel, are you sure you have those right? In the conferences with two division, shouldn't teams be ranked first on overall conference record and then on head to head and division record to break ties - i.e. Maryland and Clemson should be switched in the ACC Atlantic division, among others.
Texas Kelly
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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
    Originally posted by Roy.
    I would be very surprised if Penn State isn't in the Fiesta Bowl if they get a BCS birth. People who seem to know these things (i.e. the people I work with/for) appear to be preparing for Tempe, and supposedly have gotten phone calls from game officials sending out feelers.

That's the one part of my projections whether I'm not sure about - whether the Fiesta would have the option to choose between the highest ranked team left and the highest ranked auto-bid (since Alabama would be an at-large). I have a feeling, though, that since under this scenario, Alabama would lose the SEC championship game, and thus could potentially fall behind a 10-1 Penn State team anyway, that you're right in that things will shake out that way in the end. I just have to go by what things would be like today for the purposes of the projections, that's all.

    Originally posted by StegDutchie
    Virginia Tech, not West Virginia, is playing Boston College on Saturday. That would throw a monkey wrench into the ACC standings. West Virginia is a Big East team. Now, if 2 teams can beat WVU and Rutgers can win out, Rutgers will be YOUR Big East champions with an automatic BCS bid. That would be awesome.

Just noticed this now. I must have just misread "Virginia Tech" as "West Virginia" when I was putting this together on the fly. My stupidity has been expunged. ;)

(edited by Texas Kelly on 24.10.05 2236)


e-mail me at texas (dot) kelly (at) gmailread a bunch of incoherent nonsense
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smark/net attack Advisory System is Elevatedsmark/net attack Advisory System Status is: Elevated
(Holds; July 5, 2005)
It's good to see that the WWE isn't backing away from Batista or Cena. There's still some questions lingering over a few of the draft moves they either made or didn't make (Jericho being a prime example), but the stage is set for a solid run to Summerslam that may send the indicator down. The longer Triple H stays away is also a plus...
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 1 hour
Last activity: 1 hour
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by BigSteve
    Zeruel, are you sure you have those right? In the conferences with two division, shouldn't teams be ranked first on overall conference record and then on head to head and division record to break ties - i.e. Maryland and Clemson should be switched in the ACC Atlantic division, among others.


Yanno, I really had to do a lot of research about that. I assumed it was div record that crowned the div champ.

The official ACC site was NO help. I googled for a long while and I eventually found a FL newspaper which was written in a voice that assumed one knew how the new divisional format works.

From what I have gathered, it's CONF record that crowns the champ, and head-to-head and div record are tiebreakers. Div record doesn't make sense, as all div opponents play each other, so head-to-head will get it first. I'll reorder the ACC, Big XII, and SEC next week and keep track of what conf games are left.

(edited by Zeruel on 25.10.05 0240)



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Whitebacon
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Since: 12.1.02
From: Fresno, CA

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.89
I can't wait for Fresno State to shock the world.



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Since: 13.2.04
From: Maine

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.66
Official ACC Standings

Maryland is ahead of Clemson.

(edited by edoug on 25.10.05 0143)


ShotGunShep
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Since: 20.2.03

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.80
    Originally posted by Whitebacon
    I can't wait for Fresno State to shock the world.


You better keep waiting.
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 1 hour
Last activity: 1 hour
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
Ok, here is the fixed one.

I think I re-ordered everything without screwing it up. If I did, let me know, I'll have it fixed this weekend.

Records (conf, overall, and div if there is one);



ACC - Atlantic
1. FSU (4-1, 6-1, 2-0) *3 conf games left
2. BC (3-1, 6-1, 2-1) *4 conf games left
3. MD (2-2, 4-3, 1-1) *4 conf games left
4t Cle (2-3, 4-3, 2-2) *3 conf games left
4t WF (2-3, 3-5, 2-3) *3 conf games left
6. NCSU (1-4, 2-4, 0-2) *3 conf games left -- Conf loss or FSU conf win will eliminate them

ACC - Coastal (top 5, Duke out)
1. VT (4-0, 7-0, 2-0) *4 conf games left
2t NC (2-1, 3-3, 1-1) *5 conf games left
2t UM (2-1, 5-1, 0-0) *5 conf games left
4. GT (2-2, 4-2, 2-1) *4 conf games left
5. VA (2-3, 4-3, 1-1) *3 conf games left



Big East (top 7, Syracuse out)
1. WV (3-0, 6-1) *4 conf games left; will clinch with 3 conf wins plus loss by the 4th team, or 3 losses by UConn, USF, RU, and Pitt.
2t Pitt (3-1, 4-4) *3 conf games left
2t RU (3-1, 5-2) *3 conf games left; lost to WV
4. USF (1-1, 3-3) *5 conf games left
5t UConn (1-2, 4-3) *4 conf games left
5t Lou (1-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left
5t Cin (1-2, 3-4) *4 conf games left



Big Ten
1t PSU (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays Purdue, Wisc, MSU; not Iowa
1t Wisc (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays Illinois, PSU, Iowa; not OSU
3t OSU (3-1, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to PSU; plays NW, Minn, and Mich
3t NW'ern (3-1, 5-2) *4 conf games left
5t. Iowa (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left; lost to OSU; plays NW, Wisc, Minn
5t. Mich (3-2, 5-3) *3 conf games left; Plays NW'ern, Indiana, OSU; lost to Wisc, Minn
7. Minn (2-2, 5-2) *4 conf games left; lost to PSU, Wisc; plays Iowa, OSU; Needs to win out and get key losses
8t Ind (1-3, 4-3) *4 conf games left
8t MSU (1-3, 4-3) *4 conf games left
10t Ill (0-4, 2-5) *4 conf games left
10t Purdue (0-4, 2-5) *4 conf games left



Big XII - North
1. Mis (3-1, 5-2, 2-0) *4 conf games left
1t CO (3-1, 5-2, 1-0) *4 conf games left
3. Neb (2-2, 5-2, 1-1) *4 conf games left
4t KSU (1-3, 4-3, 1-0) *4 conf games left
4t ISU (1-3, 4-3, 0-1) *4 conf games left
6. Kansas (0-4, 3-4, 0-2) *4 conf games left


Big XII - South
1. TX (4-0, 7-0, 2-0) *4 conf games left
2t TAMU (3-1, 5-2, 2-0) *4 conf games left
2t OK (3-1, 4-3, 1-1) *4 conf games left
2t TXT (3-1, 6-1, 0-1) *4 conf games left
5. Bay (1-3, 4-3, 0-2) *4 conf games left
6. OKS (0-4, 3-4, 0-2) *4 conf games left; Eliminated with TX conf win


Pac-10
1t USC (4-0, 7-0) *4 conf games left; plays UCLA, Stan; beat OR; DNP ORSU
1t UCLA (4-0, 7-0) *4 conf games left; plays USC, Stan; DNP OR
3. OR (4-1, 7-1) *3 conf games left; plays ORS; beat Stan; lost to USC; DNP UCLA
4. Stanford (3-1, 4-2) *4 conf games left
5. Cal (3-2, 6-2) *3 conf games left
6. ORSU (2-2, 4-3) *4 conf games left
7. ASU (1-3, 3-4) *4 conf games left
8t WSU (0-4, 3-4) *4 conf games left; Eliminated with USC conf win
8t AZ (0-4, 1-6) *4 conf games left; Eliminated with USC conf win; Bowl ineligible otherwise
8t WA (0-4, 1-6) *4 conf games left; Eliminated with USC conf win; Bowl ineligible otherwise


SEC - East
1. GA (5-0, 7-0, 3-0) *3 conf games left
2. FL (3-2, 5-2, 2-0) *3 conf games left; 2 GA conf wins will eliminate them, or GA conf win with FL conf loss
3t SC (2-3, 4-3, 2-1) *3 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them
3t Van (2-3, 4-4, 0-2) *3 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them
3t TN (2-3, 3-3, 0-2) *3 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them
6. KY (0-3, 1-5, 0-2) *5 conf games left; GA conf win will eliminate them


SEC - West
1. Ala (5-0, 7-0, 1-0) *3 conf games left
2. LSU (4-1, 5-1, 2-0) *3 conf games left
3. Aub (3-1, 5-2, 2-1) *4 conf games left
4t MS (0-4, 2-5, 0-1) *Eliminated; 1 loss from being bowl ineligible
4t AR (0-4, 2-5, 0-2) *Eliminated; 1 loss from being bowl ineligible
4t MSU (0-4, 2-5, 0-2) *Eliminated; 1 loss from being bowl ineligible




The Catastrophic Annihilation War Room
"You want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?" --Toby, West Wing

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