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21.8.14 0330
The W - Sports that aren't Baseball, Football, Basketball, or Hockey - The Preakness
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Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 71 days
Last activity: 27 days
#1 Posted on
A few stray thoughts on today's 136th running of The Preakness:

Animal Kingdom demonstrated in Louisville two weeks ago that he is truly the class of this field. He proved that he can win on the dirt just as easily as he's been winning on the plastic. The only question now is, "Can he do it again?". At the morning line of 2-1, I'd be tempted to just ride the wave and play him on top; at 6-5 or less, I'd be more tempted to try to beat him. But there's no doubt in my mind that this horse is a deserving favorite.

Mucho Macho Man is showing a Beyer pattern that heavily suggests that he's about to run a big one. Note the steady improvement in this year's Beyers, topping out at his 99 in the Derby; that 99 matches his top figure as a two year old. The pattern suggests a horse that is growing and maturing, and is now ready to step up his game. Because of the back story regarding trainer Kathy Ritvo, this horse is also a sentimental choice; perhaps even more so this go around with the sudden death of Randy Savage yesterday.

In the light of a new day, Dialed In is much less appealing than he was prior to the Derby. He's now been beaten twice as a favorite in a career that spans only five races. I'm going to pass on him, and wait and see what 50-1 shot Zito brings into next month's Belmont Stakes.

Midnight Interlude is the mystery horse of the Preakness. The winner of the Grade One Santa Anita Derby showed next to nothing two weeks ago at Churchill. If someone can give me a credible reason (or even an incredible reason) why this horse barely picked up his feet in the Derby, I would be inclined to include him in the exotics; otherwise, I'm going to leave him out.

Concealed Identity is this year's local hero in the Preakness. He's two-for-two over this track, and is the only horse besides Animal Kingdom coming into today's race off a victory. He's yet to run in a graded stakes race, but having Smarty Jones as a sire certainly suggests that he has the breeding to run with this pack. As longshots go, this one looks very attractive.

Sway Away will have the benefit of having (in my humble opinion) the best big race jockey in the game on his back, Garrett Gomez. Dance City, who came out of that same Arkansas Derby, sports a superior Beyer pattern (71 - 79 - 85 - 95). Nehro's place finish in the Kentucky Derby (just as in the Arkansas Derby) means that the horses that finished right behind him last month must be viewed as contenders in today's race. There are negatives, of course; Sway Away seems to have trouble with two turns, while Dance City may get caught up in an early speed duel.

Astrology is the type of horse that deserves strong consideration when writing intra-race tickets, though I don't see him winning against this field today. Astrology has been in the Trifecta in all seven races of his career, but in nearly half of those races he's been a beaten favorite. In other words, this is a horse that always manages to be just good enough to lose. I'll be keeping him out of the top spot on my tickets, but he'll almost certainly be named on my Exactas and Tri's.

So anyway, those are my thoughts on today's Preakness.




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"Share your food with the hungry, and give shelter to the homeless. Give clothes to those who need them, and do not hide from relatives who need your help." - Isaiah 58:7 (New Living Translation)
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CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.85
When you mention more than half the field but NOT the winner, you deserve to be ribbed. Of course, I thought Randy Savage was going to push Mucho Macho Man from heaven, so I'm probably not the person to provide you with the best, most educated ribbing.

(DISCLOSURE: I broke even because I didn't place a bet)



emma
Cherries > Peaches








Since: 1.8.02
From: Phoenix-ish

Since last post: 148 days
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.63
I think we're left to assume that those are his *ordered* picks, non? :-)

You didn't even mention Shackleford!! Triple Crown contenders are always fun, but I really like horses that win from the front.

(Although, thanks much for the reminder! I would have completely spaced that the race was today.)
Downtown Bookie
Morcilla








Since: 7.4.02
From: The Inner City, Now Living In The Country

Since last post: 71 days
Last activity: 27 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
Emma - I completely understand forgetting about The Preakness. The Kentucky Derby is the largest horse race of the year, and The Belmont Stakes in New York is rightly viewed as The Test of Champions. The Preakness, however, is generally viewed as the weakest of the Triple Crown races, so it's easy for the casual fan to ignore. Besides, you were probably spending most of the day focused on that whole "End of the World" event that was supposed to happen.

CRZ - all ribbing is welcome, and, in this case, pretty much deserved. Needless to say, I did not expect the horse that could not finish in the money after setting opening fractions of 23.1 / 48.3 / 1:13.2 in the Derby would be able to wire the field with fractions of 22.3 / 46.4 / 1:12.0 in the Preakness. But so it goes in racing, and congrats are definitely in order for Shackleford and his connections.

Anyway, there are some positives that I can take from my pre-race notes (and believe me, when you do this as often as I do, you need to grab onto all the positives you can, lest you find yourself sticking your head in the nearest gas oven). I correctly predicted that Dialed In would not finish in the money, and I knew Midnight Interlude would run pretty much as he had in the Derby (that is to say, not run at all). I was right about Astrology being involved in the Trifecta without taking the top spot, and I did collect on Animal Kingdom finishing in one of the top two spots (a Place wager on the Derby winner being the only ticket I cashed on the race).

So it wasn't all bad; though it clearly wasn't good.

Oh well. Onto the next race!




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"Share your food with the hungry, and give shelter to the homeless. Give clothes to those who need them, and do not hide from relatives who need your help." - Isaiah 58:7 (New Living Translation)
DrewDewce
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Derby City

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
I wasn't a fan of Animal Kingdom going into or out of the Derby so he really impressed me yesterday (I'm sure he slept better last night knowing that).

Of course, he did it against a significantly weaker field than he competed against in the Derby as a few of the stronger horses from that race didn't run the Preakness for various reasons. I'll be eager to see how he does in the Belmont (I'm assuming he'll run there) and if he somehow comes out on top I will *REALLY* be bummed that we missed another Triple Crown winner by less than a length.

I've been "riding" with Mucho Macho Man all Spring so I've been really disappointed that he didn't do more in either of the big races.

Hoping to make the rest of the Triple Crown one of these years, but until then I'm very much looking forward to the Belmont, a day or two out at Churchill for some of the bigger local races and then Breeders Cup this fall (We had so much fun last year we took to calling it "Winter Derby" - tix go on sale for it tomorrow btw!)



"You are going to get a certain amount of snarkiness on the Internet no matter what, and my rule is that you don't post anything that you wouldn't say to someone's face."
Marc Andreyko (Writer of DC Comic's "Manhunter")
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
    Originally posted by DrewDewce
    I wasn't a fan of Animal Kingdom going into or out of the Derby so he really impressed me yesterday (I'm sure he slept better last night knowing that).

    Of course, he did it against a significantly weaker field than he competed against in the Derby as a few of the stronger horses from that race didn't run the Preakness for various reasons. I'll be eager to see how he does in the Belmont (I'm assuming he'll run there) and if he somehow comes out on top I will *REALLY* be bummed that we missed another Triple Crown winner by less than a length.

    I've been "riding" with Mucho Macho Man all Spring so I've been really disappointed that he didn't do more in either of the big races.

    Hoping to make the rest of the Triple Crown one of these years, but until then I'm very much looking forward to the Belmont, a day or two out at Churchill for some of the bigger local races and then Breeders Cup this fall (We had so much fun last year we took to calling it "Winter Derby" - tix go on sale for it tomorrow btw!)







For some reason, Baltimore probably won't be the city you go to for the second leg of the Triple Crown when you finally decide to do the circuit.
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