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The W - Random - The Oscar Prediction Thread
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Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 242 days
Last activity: 2 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
The 75th Annual Academy Awards will be handed out in just under 2 weeks (March 23rd), so I thought I'd open things up by beginning a prediction thread. Person with most correct gets bragging rights, or something.

Edited because I stupidly thought only branch members voted for awards, instead of everybody. Oops!

ACTING
Screen Actor's Guild winners:
Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis [Gangs of New York]
Actress: Renee Zelwegger [Chicago]
S.Actor: Christopher Walken [Catch Me If You Can]
S.Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones [Chicago]

Okay, so the actors who voted on the SAGs are also voting on the Oscars for acting. Why would they change their minds in two weeks? They wouldn't. The only close races will be Walken vs. Cooper in Supporting Actor and Zelwegger vs. Kidman in Actress.

My Picks:
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Supporting Actor: John C. Reilly
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman
Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones

DIRECTION
Again, we head to the Director's Guild...
Rob Marshall won the Best Director award for Chicago. Other Oscar nominees are Roman "Exiled" Polanski [won't win], Stephen Daldry [won't win], Pedro Almodovar [won't win] and Martin Scorsese. It's a tight race. I'm thinking sentiment will win out...

My Pick:
Best Director: Martin Scorsese

SCREENPLAYS
To the guilds! The Writer's Guild honored The Hours [Best Adapted Screenplay] and Bowling For Columbine [Best Original Screenplay]. Bowling's not nominated for the Oscar, while the Hours is up against Adaptation (among others) for the corresponding Oscar.

My Picks:
Best Adapted Screenplay: Adaptation [duh]
Best Original Screenplay: My Big Fat Greek Wedding

MUSIC
My Picks
Best Score: Catch Me If You Can
Best Song: "The Hands That Built America" by U2

OTHER AWARDS
Editing: Gangs of New York
Cinematography: Road To Perdition [the late, great Conrad L. Hall]
Art Direction: Road To Perdition
Costume Design: Gangs Of New York
Make-Up: Frida
Sound: Spider-Man [It's gotta win SOMETHING.]
Sound Editing: Road To Perdition
Visual Effects: The Two Towers
Foreign Film: El Crimen Del Padre Amaro
Animated Feature: Spirited Away
Animated Short: The Chubbchubbs
Documentary Feature: Bowling For Columbine
Documentary Short: Twin Towers
Live Action Short: Inja (Dog)

PICTURE
Five nominated films: Chicago, Gangs of New York, The Pianist, Lord of the Rings: the Two Towers and The Hours.
The Hours is a triumph of good acting, but not an overall awesome film. Not epic enough. The Two Towers will get it's due when the entire trilogy is honored next year. The Pianist has Roman Polanski nominated, and he will not be at the Oscars due to his exile in Europe. So, the Academy won't give an award to a guy who won't show up. Two horse race between Chicago and Gangs of New York. Chicago has acclaim and success, while Gangs is respected and epic. My gut tells me that Chicago will win.

THE TALLY [Oscars predicted per film]
5: Gangs Of New York [Actor, Director, Song, Editing, Costume Design]
3: Chicago [Picture, S.Actor, S.Actress], Road To Perdition [Sound Editing, Cinematography, Art Direction]
1: The Hours [Actress], Adaptation [Adapted Screenplay], My Big Fat Greek Wedding [Original Screenplay], Spider-Man [Sound], The Two Towers [Visual Effects], Bowling For Columbine [Documentary Feature], Spirited Away [Animated Feature], Catch Me If You Can [Score]


(edited by Freeway420 on 12.3.03 1615)

The Chase Is On:
8th: Oilers [29-23-8-8] 74pts; 14 games left
14th: Flames [23-31-10-4] 60pts; 14 games left
Flames must win 7 more games than the Oilers do to make playoffs
Any combination of 7 Oilers wins or Flames losses eliminates them from the playoffs
Promote this thread!
Cerebus
Knackwurst








Since: 17.11.02

Since last post: 22 days
Last activity: 14 hours
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.74
I'm thinking Chicago for editing, Gangs had to many long shots for an editing award.

Wasn't Gangs of New York a book first? Either way, it deserves screenplay and should win because after last years love fest, I don't see them giving Daniel Day Lewis the nod, even though he blows the rest of the nominees out of the water.

Supporting actor... that's a tough one, as seems to be the case of late. John C Riley would make a sweet acceptance speech and would probably get the most out of winning then the others, but as you mentioned, Walken won the SAG, so he'll probably win here as well, unless they give some one else a shot at winning which would be nice, Ed Harris, I think, has been deserving of an award since way back when he played John Glenn in the extremely underrated THE RIGHT STUFF in 1983 or THE ABYSS(1989). No one wants to see him go home as a 4 time loser.





Cerebus: Barbarian, Prime Minister, Pope, Perfect House Guest.

"Graft is as necessary as throwing up when you drink too much."
krakken2000
Kishke








Since: 31.10.02
From: seattle

Since last post: 1938 days
Last activity: 1664 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.36
(a quick note about SAG, not all SAG members are members of the academy. Also the entire academy membership votes, actors, directors, writers, etc. So while the SAG awards carry some weight they certainly aren't a clear indicator of who will win. Same goes for the WGA and DGA awards.)

Best Picture: Chicago

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York (I think Jack Nicholson relinqueshed his early lead.)

Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, The Hours

Best Supporting Actor: Chris Cooper, Adaptation

Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Best Animated Feature:Lilo & Stich

Adapted Screenplay:Chicago, Bill Condon

Original Screenplay: Far from Heaven, Todd Haynes

Best Foreign-Language Film: Nowhere in Africa (Germany) (a guess...I have seen none of the films)

Art Direction: Chicago

Cinematography: Road to Perdition

Costume Design: Chicago

Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine

Documentary Short Subject: Twin Towers

Film Editing: Chicago

Makeup: Frida

Original Score: Far from Heaven

Original Song: "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs of New York), music and lyric
by U2

Animated Short Film: Das Rad (another guess...)

Live-Action Short Film: Inja (Dog) (and one more guess...)

Sound: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Sound Editing:The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers




Flaming Box of Stuff, blah, blah, blah...
oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1924 days
Last activity: 1858 days
#4 Posted on
Best Picture: Chicago, just because the Academy loves rewarding solidly banal outings over original film-making.

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. No other outcome is acceptable.

Best Actress: I'd LIKE to see Julianne Moore take it, but we all know that ain't gonna happen. And Zellweger SUCKED ASS in Chicago, so...Nicole Kidman.

Best Supporting Actor: Chris Cooper.

Best Supporting Actress: Meryl Streep.

Best Director: Freeway-"It's a tight race. I'm thinking sentiment will win out..." You cannot seriously believe that hack Rob Marshall deserves this award over Scorcese. Marty would be the favourite even if Gangs had been a total turkey simply for past oversights; couple to that Gangs' astonishing directorial verve, and you have a case for victory ten times stronger than Rob "Stage Manager" Marshall. Scorcese. By FAR.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Adaptation. What else?

Best Original Screenplay: Nothing really sticks out this year, which leads me to believe that a sentimental My Big fat Greek Wedding win is in the offing.

Best Cinematography: Road To Perdition, and not the usual "He's died so we'll award him" reasons either. Perfect cinematography.

Best Animated Feature: Spirited Away.

Best Foreign Language Film: Where in the Hell is City Of God? El Crimen Del Padre Amaro.

The others are pretty much toss-ups between the big players, and I tihnk they'll be split pretty evenly. Mentions: Gangs is an obvious choice for costume design; Bowling For Columbine should cruise through the opposition; Eminem will get shafted in the Best Song category; The Two Towers will grab at least a coupla technicals to try and quiet the fans.






Hail To The King, Baby

Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 242 days
Last activity: 2 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
According to the Official Academy website (www.oscars.org), the members of a certain branch of the Academy vote for the specific awards. For example, directors vote for Best Director, actors for the acting award and so on. All Academy members, regardless of branch, vote for Best Picture. So, in fact, the Guilds are the main way of seeing who's going to win.



The Chase Is On:
8th: Oilers [29-23-8-8] 74pts; 14 games left
14th: Flames [23-31-10-4] 60pts; 14 games left
Flames must win 7 more games than the Oilers do to make playoffs
Any combination of 7 Oilers wins or Flames losses eliminates them from the playoffs
krakken2000
Kishke








Since: 31.10.02
From: seattle

Since last post: 1938 days
Last activity: 1664 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.36

    Originally posted by Freeway420
    According to the Official Academy website (www.oscars.org), the members of a certain branch of the Academy vote for the specific awards. For example, directors vote for Best Director, actors for the acting award and so on. All Academy members, regardless of branch, vote for Best Picture. So, in fact, the Guilds are the main way of seeing who's going to win.


That is true *for the nomination process*

Example: The directors branch nominates the 5 directing nominees. The writing branch nominates the 5 adapted and 5 original screenplay nominees, etc.

After the nomination process, the actual voting is done by the academy at large with ballots being sent to all academy members, per the rules:

"Final voting for the awards shall be restricted to active and life academy members"



Flaming Box of Stuff, blah, blah, blah...
Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 242 days
Last activity: 2 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
Touche. Gotta love research.

"But you'll be back. And you. AND YOU!"
"Of course I'll back, Moe. If you didn't close, I'd never leave!"

Ah, when in doubt, fall back on obscure Simpsons quotes.



The Chase Is On:
8th: Oilers [29-23-8-8] 74pts; 14 games left
14th: Flames [23-31-10-4] 60pts; 14 games left
Flames must win 7 more games than the Oilers do to make playoffs
Any combination of 7 Oilers wins or Flames losses eliminates them from the playoffs
odessasteps
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: MD, USA

Since last post: 65 days
Last activity: 31 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.41

Well, I don't want to give away something that's going to b in the next issue of our magazine (and on our website), so here's a tease...

Yes, itís Oscar time. We donít have a TON of griping to do this year, as compared to years past (like 1999, for
example). But that wonít stop us for giving you some predictions here.

Best Actor

Will Win: This is probably a two-horse race between Nicholson and Day-Lewis. Give the edge to the cagey
veteran.
Should Win: Bill the Butcher was a mesmerizing character, even more so than Cageís portrayal of the very
dissimilar Kaufman twins. Day-Lewis deserves this in a big way.
In a Pefect World: Day-Lewis. Perhaps the most memorable image in film this year was Bill the Butcher
draped in an American flag, watching over his sleeping protoge (Leonardo DiCaprio).




"No one's ever done a movie about flowers before. So there are no guidelines."
"What about "Flowers for Algernon"?"
"Well, that's not about flowers. And it's not a movie."
"Ok, I'm sorry, I never saw it." -- Adaptation
krakken2000
Kishke








Since: 31.10.02
From: seattle

Since last post: 1938 days
Last activity: 1664 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.36
One glorious occasion a few years ago, I had the chance to help an elderly academy member fill out her ballot. She didn't have the chance to see many movies and didn't really want to to watch the screeners that came in the mail.

So yes, I am responsible for Marisa Tomei winning best supporting actress.

(note: I'm kidding)

Odessasteps, what website/magazine do you work for?



Flaming Box of Stuff, blah, blah, blah...
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 8 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54


    Best Picture: Chicago, just because the Academy loves rewarding solidly banal outings over original film-making.


Actually, Chicago was outstanding. One my favourite movies of the year. For the first time in three years, Best Picture will go to a movie that arguably was the best (Gladiator and Beautiful Mind weren't even in the top twenty).




Well Mr. Burns had done it.
The power plant had won it.
With Rogers Clemens clucking all the while.
Mike Scioscia's tragic illness made us smile.
While Wade Boggs lay unconscious on
the barroom tile.
We're talkin'...
Softball.
From Maine to San Diego.
Talkin'...
Softball.
Mattingly and Canseco.
Ken Griffey's grotesquely swollen jaw.
Steve Sax and his run-in with the law.
We're talkin' Homer...
Ozzie and the Straw.
Peter The Hegemon
Lap cheong








Since: 11.2.03
From: Hackettstown, NJ

Since last post: 23 days
Last activity: 1 day
#11 Posted on
OK, I'm game.

Best Actor: If they hadn't given Nicholson an Oscar for the very average As Good As It Gets, which the Academy inexplicably loved, he'd have a good shot here, but he ain't getting his fifth. Fortunately, that opens things up for a tremendous performance by Daniel Day-Lewis.

Best Supporting Actor: Sentiment for Paul Newman (who only has one Oscar) carries him past Walken.

Best Actress: Nicole Kidman. She's been a big star for a while, she's done some fine work; it's her time.

Best Supporting Actress: Julianne Moore. Get nominated for lead and supporting, you usually win the supporting.

Best Animated Feature: Spirited Away. None of the "big" films were all that well-received, so they take the opportunity to be hip.

Best Art Direction: Chicago

Best Cinematography: Far From Heaven

Best Costume Design: Chicago

Best Director: Scorsese's been screwed enough. He finally gets one.

Best Documentary: Bowling For Columbine is the only one I know anything about it, and I saw it and it was good. How it managed to win that screenplay award when it's a documentary doesn't make sense to me, but whatever. Anyway, the Academy has a longstanding history of not voting for documentaries that anyone actually sees, no matter how good they are. So I'll look at the list and pick...Daughter From Danang.

Best Documentary Short: Twin Towers. I don't need to know anything about it; who'd vote against it?

Best Editing: Chicago

Best Foreign Language Film: Zus And Zo. In this category, the one you've heard of probably will win.

Best Makeup: Frida. Only two nominees here, because anything with digital effects replacing makeup in any scene is disqualified, which nixes LOTR, Attack Of The Clones, and even The Hours (they fixed a few shots where Virginia Woolf's nose didn't look right).

Best Score: The Hours. Enough of the Academy knows that Phillip Glass is an Impressive Composer, even if they don't really know his stuff.

Best Original Song: "I Move On", Chicago. The young people split their votes between U2 and Eminem, so the fuddy-duddies win out. I'd probably vote for Paul Simon myself.

Best Animated Short: Mike's New Car

Best Live Action Short: Johnny Flynton. I am basing this entirely on the fact that it's the only one of the five nominees where no part of its title is in a foreign language.

Best Sound: Chicago

Best Sound Editing: Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers

Best Visual Effects: Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers. Me, I'd vote for Attack Of The Clones, but it's getting no love in other technical categories so I don't think the voters are inclined to give it anything.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Since Adaptation was easily my favorite movie of the year, it won't win. I'm figuring this is where The Pianist gets some acknowledgement as this year's Holocaust film. (And though I haven't seen it, I do hear it's very good.)

Best Original Screenplay: To answer Cerebus' question, yes, Gangs Of New York was a book first, but the story is largely original (just throwing in some events, people, and places from the book) so they decided it went here. And My Big Fat Greek Wedding was a stage play first, but it was originally written as a screenplay and then she turned it into a stage show while trying to sell the movie. I'm thinking that if they liked Wedding that much, they'd have nominated her for Best Actress, so I'm going to guess Far From Heaven here.

Best Picture: Well, many of these categories are very tough to pick here, so why should this one be any exception. I've gone with Chicago winning five other awards, but not any of the majors, but I'm coming back to it here. Sticking out as a musical against three serious dramas set in the past (at least in part) should help.
Net Hack Slasher
Banger








Since: 6.1.02
From: Outer reaches of your mind

Since last post: 3527 days
Last activity: 1946 days
#12 Posted on
Best Picture: Gangs of New York

Best Director: Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs of New York

Best Actress: Juliane Moore. Far From Heaven

Best Supporting Actor: Paul Newman, Road to Perdition

Best Supporting Actress: Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago

Best Animated Feature: Spirited Away

Adapted Screenplay: Chicago

Original Screenplay: Gangs of New York

Best Foreign-Language Film: El Crimen Del Padre Amaro

Art Direction: Chicago

Cinematography: Road to Perdition

Costume Design: Chicago

Documentary Feature: Bowling for Columbine

Documentary Short Subject: Twin Towers

Film Editing: Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Makeup: Frida

Original Score: Frida

Original Song: "The Hands That Built America" (Gangs of New York), music and lyric by U2

Animated Short Film: Das Rad

Live-Action Short Film: Inja (Dog)

Sound: Spiderman

Sound Editing: Minority Report

Visual Effects: The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers


(edited by Net Hack Slasher on 14.3.03 0253)


Was mentioned Three times, 3X, 3X. In the "Great Wieners" thread!
Cerebus
Knackwurst








Since: 17.11.02

Since last post: 22 days
Last activity: 14 hours
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.74

    Originally posted by odessasteps

    Well, I don't want to give away something that's going to b in the next issue of our magazine (and on our website), so here's a tease...

    Yes, itís Oscar time. We donít have a TON of griping to do this year, as compared to years past (like 1999, for
    example). But that wonít stop us for giving you some predictions here.

    Best Actor

    Will Win: This is probably a two-horse race between Nicholson and Day-Lewis. Give the edge to the cagey
    veteran.
    Should Win: Bill the Butcher was a mesmerizing character, even more so than Cageís portrayal of the very
    dissimilar Kaufman twins. Day-Lewis deserves this in a big way.
    In a Pefect World: Day-Lewis. Perhaps the most memorable image in film this year was Bill the Butcher
    draped in an American flag, watching over his sleeping protoge (Leonardo DiCaprio).



This reads like it's from Premiere or Movieline. If it's Movieline, I'd LOVE to get a free subcription...



Cerebus: Barbarian, Prime Minister, Pope, Perfect House Guest.

"Graft is as necessary as throwing up when you drink too much."
The King of Keith
Lap cheong








Since: 4.11.02
From: Winchester, VA

Since last post: 251 days
Last activity: 210 days
AIM:  
#14 Posted on
Hmm...

Best Pic - Chicago
What can I say? I loved this movie immensely.

Best Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
He's pulled off the best acting job in any movie since Pesci in Goodfellas

Best Actress - Nicole Kidman
She deserves it. It's finally her time

Best Supporting Actor - Chris Cooper
I'd really like to see John C. Reilly win b/c he's my favorite actor, but Chris Cooper was too good for words in Adaptation

Best Supporting Actress - Julianne Moore
I'd run through fire for her.

Best Director - Martin Scorsese
How he did not win for Goodfellas is beyond me. I would have taken Peter Jackson in this category, but stupidly he was not even nominated. So, by default, Scorsese



Get well soon Kurt, Batista, Randy, Edge, Kevin, Scotty, Bubba, Regal....

Man, that's depressing...and I know there's people I've forgotten!
krakken2000
Kishke








Since: 31.10.02
From: seattle

Since last post: 1938 days
Last activity: 1664 days
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.36
Scorsese not winning for Goodfellas is quite possibly the greatest travesty in Oscar history (well, Hitchock never winning is right up there...)

The thing is, I was a young naive 18 year old back when Costner beat out Scorsese and I honestly thought that Dances with Wolves was a better film. Chalk that up to a lack of filmgoing maturity.

Since then I have gone back and watched both movies and banged my head over and over saying "what the fuck was the acedemy thinking????"

With that said, I want Scorsese to win this year to make up for the thievery of '91. But, I still wish Gangs was a better film. Don't get me wrong...its *good* just not great.



Flaming Box of Stuff, blah, blah, blah...
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 8 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54
I think it's funny that of Scorsese's three Oscar losses, two have come to Robert Redford and KEVIN FREAKING COSTNER, both of whom were directing their first movies (the third loss was to Barry Levinson, which is respectable).



Well Mr. Burns had done it.
The power plant had won it.
With Rogers Clemens clucking all the while.
Mike Scioscia's tragic illness made us smile.
While Wade Boggs lay unconscious on
the barroom tile.
We're talkin'...
Softball.
From Maine to San Diego.
Talkin'...
Softball.
Mattingly and Canseco.
Ken Griffey's grotesquely swollen jaw.
Steve Sax and his run-in with the law.
We're talkin' Homer...
Ozzie and the Straw.
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- tarnish, American Patriotism (2004)
Related threads: And here they is (Oscar noms) - Guess The Oscar Nominations! - Oscar Buzz - More...
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