I got talked into watching this show, again, but of course the person who did isn't returning my voice mails. It's gotta go somewhere, here's good enough.
People who obviously aren't the Mole and are easy to eliminate - Paul (way too into 'the game') - Bobby (way too blatant) - Mark (way too insane, couldn't fake being the Mole if he tried) - Nicole (way too into creating herself as Reality TV Star) - Victoria (way too concerned about losing money on every game; apparently unaware no team ever gets 100% of the money)
People who are reasonable suspects - Clay - Craig - Kristen - Alex - Ali
Clay, Kristen, and Ali have relatively hid in the background, which is what all the former Moles have done early on. You don't really need to screw something or misled people, because they'll do it to themselves. Craig is the sort of "we'll make anyone the Mole so you can't rule anyone out next season!" pick some shows will try, though I'm not sure this one will make it thru this season much less the next. I've got Alex and Paul also confused in my brain, but I don't think Alex has done enough to rule himself out.
I think Ali's the Mole. It's a slightly educated, mostly gut feeling. Kristen's my second guess, mostly because I get her confused with Ali.
taking the show way too seriously note: I spent five minutes analyzing the ransom note on freeze frame, noting the missing and misplaced letters, looking for a phrase from the first letter of each word or the first letter on each line, analyzing patterns in letters with similar fonts...and came up with absolutely nothing. I'm 100000% sure they'll show it again at the end of the season with a voice over explaining how obvious the clue was, but it was beyond me here.
In case you somehow forgot what Season Four was like, here it is, in ten minutes: http://bcove.me/ev844p0e Edit: If you are a Dish subscriber, AMC has you covered with free streaming of the new season. http://www.hitfix.