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21.10.14 1659
The W - Current Events & Politics - The Debate Part #3
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BigDaddyLoco
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Since: 2.1.02

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.36
I thought McCain started off well for the first 10 minutes he threw a good punch with the 'I'm not George Bush' spiel and then the wheels fell off the wagon. I was actually laughing at the poor guy after the whole Bill Ayers segment when his final response after dragging out that segment and having Obama explain things saying that Obama needed to explain things, but his campain isn't even about that it is about taxes and such.

I'm almost feeling bad for the guy right now. The smell of desperation is strong and I can just see the Republican base pulling their hair out.

It was nice to see McCain bring some fight, but it just seemed like too much too late and it got kind of weird. It was kind of uncomfortable at times.

I thought it was well moderated at least.

Joe the Plummer got a lot of free ad time at least

(edited by BigDaddyLoco on 15.10.08 2246)
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DrDirt
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Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.79
It was McCain's best performance but once he got agitated and angry, and started constantly interrupting, he looked like a bitter angry old man.

IMHO, the best thing Obama did all night was his wrap up where he didn't even reference McCain while McCain referenced Obama several times.



Perception is reality
StingArmy
Andouille








Since: 3.5.03
From: Georgia bred, you can tell by my Hawk jersey

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.45
    Originally posted by BigDaddyLoco
    Joe the Plummer got a lot of free ad time at least

I missed most of the debate, so when I first read this I thought you said Jake the Snake was getting some mentions.

That probably would have been more awesome.

- StingArmy
Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
I just noticed something interesting (to me). Both Obama and McCain are left handed. That means that after the election 4 of the last 7 US Presidents will have been left handed. Bill Clinton was, George HW Bush was, and Gerald Ford was. Just one of those weird things, I guess.
JimBob Skeeter
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: MN

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.43
I noticedd they were both lefties to and it was the m ost disturbing thing of the night. This country is going to hell in a hand basket!
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
Just read a funny thing, regarding the debate last night. Joe the Plumber may not be registered to vote.

Granted it was a blog, so who knows how valid that is but his name is known and the records of his state were searched without finding him.

Doesn't change the message McCain was trying to get out there, but still funny when you think they were both talking directly to and courting the vote of a guy who can't vote.
CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.01
Joe the Plumber IS registered to vote.

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20081016/NEWS09/810160418/-1/NEWS (sidebar)

Unfortunately, since his last name looks to be spelled incorrectly in the roll, his name should probably be among those purged. To be fair, you know. ;-)



wmatistic
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Since: 2.2.04
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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08


Well forget that then.

What I found most interesting about that exchange was that Obama didn't stress his point enough that 98% of small business owners don't make over $250,000(assuming that's a correct number). He said it once in the middle of a point and then let McCain push the idea that he would be taxing "Joe the Plumber" more, when that very likely wasn't true.

Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.98
    Originally posted by wmatistic


    Well forget that then.

    What I found most interesting about that exchange was that Obama didn't stress his point enough that 98% of small business owners don't make over $250,000(assuming that's a correct number). He said it once in the middle of a point and then let McCain push the idea that he would be taxing "Joe the Plumber" more, when that very likely wasn't true.



No I believe the point is that Joe the Plumber wants to buy a plumbing business that makes about $280K a year. So yes, he would get taxed more. But yes, he is in the top 5% of all small businesses. I think that's what McCain was getting at with the "Joe, you're rich" business, and saying that Obama wanted to redistribute all his wealth.
wmatistic
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Since: 2.2.04
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      Originally posted by wmatistic


      Well forget that then.

      What I found most interesting about that exchange was that Obama didn't stress his point enough that 98% of small business owners don't make over $250,000(assuming that's a correct number). He said it once in the middle of a point and then let McCain push the idea that he would be taxing "Joe the Plumber" more, when that very likely wasn't true.



    No I believe the point is that Joe the Plumber wants to buy a plumbing business that makes about $280K a year. So yes, he would get taxed more. But yes, he is in the top 5% of all small businesses. I think that's what McCain was getting at with the "Joe, you're rich" business, and saying that Obama wanted to redistribute all his wealth.


Isn't there a difference between the business making over $250,000 and the individual themself making that much in terms of taxes?
Guru Zim
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.37
Joe probably doesn't understand accounting.

I doubt that a 34 year old plumber has made enough money in 11 years to buy a business that NETS $250,000 a year.

If he has, I need to get to vocational school now. Fuck this computers deal.




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CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.01
Wait...the board *isn't* netting us $250K a year? SHIT.

Joe (the Plumber) talks about his plans - I especially like the line about "my American Dream was to have a house, a dog, a couple rifles, a bass boat" in this article published before the debate (familysecuritymatters.org).

Obviously I haven't been able to watch a lotta TV at work this morning but I hear he has officially now given more interviews than Sarah Palin.

(edited by CRZ on 16.10.08 1134)


Guru Zim
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Since: 9.12.01
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.37
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Wait...the board *isn't* netting us $250K a year? SHIT.


I haven't done the numbers, but I'm pretty sure even with the cheaper hosting that the board isn't even netting us $250 a year.




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CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.01
    Originally posted by Guru Zim
      Originally posted by CRZ
      Wait...the board *isn't* netting us $250K a year? SHIT.


    I haven't done the numbers, but I'm pretty sure even with the cheaper hosting that the board isn't even netting us $250 a year.
I propose more deficit spending to pull us out of this situation!

(This is offtopic and I'm ashamed. At least I edited my last post for content...now, I have no excuse.)



drjayphd
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Since: 22.4.02
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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.54
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week.

"Two men enter. One man leaves...with groceries." (SchippeWreck)


    Originally posted by DrDirt
    It was McCain's best performance but once he got agitated and angry, and started constantly interrupting, he looked like a bitter angry old man.


It didn't help much when he ended his final statement thusly: "...HELL-OOOO, I'm talkin' to you. Get that camera back up here. That's what you should worry about, Obama. The bottom line is this, when the DDT comes, then the snake comes out. Worry about the DDT. DDT, DDT, DDT (begins yelling) DDT! DDT! DDT! THINK ABOUT IT!"

Although the only bit that I really caught was the Ayers discussion, and ye gods was that sad. Obama categorically refutes McCain's claims, and McCain proceeds to ask the exact same questions Obama answered. I think one of the campaign's wheels just rolled down the street.



Guru Zim
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Since: 9.12.01
From: Bay City, OR

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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.37
So let's do some back of napkin math for Joe the Plumber. Someone with more knowledge may feel free to correct any errors I make.

First, let's assume that Joe is going to actually buy a business that nets him $250k a year in taxable income. How much should Joe be expecting to pay for this?

    Originally posted by http://www.bizbuysell.com/guide/b_value_1.htm

    The second issue is the specific calculation of what constitutes 'earnings.' I vote for a simple definition here - one used by accountants for businesses large and small. I'm referring to 'Earnings Before Interest and Taxes' (EBIT) as it is known and defined by accountants. Again, I defer to buyer preferences here. Their advisors are often CPAs and EBIT is an understood norm.

    What's the right multiple? Well, it depends! For most businesses, it's somewhere between 3 to 5 times 'normalized' EBIT. But, it can be less than that when there are few tangible assets and it can be more than that when the business is uniquely attractive.

    The right multiple is, in the eyes of buyers, a matter of assumed risk. Buyers feel better about buying tangible assets that they can appreciate with their five senses - things like real estate and equipment. On the other hand, one can entice them by offering a clearly attractive opportunity to make money, regardless of the tangible assets included, as long as it's believable.

    Why is it 3 to 5 times earnings? Well, to buyers, such a multiple represents getting your investment back in 3 to 5 years from profits. That's equivalent to a projected annual return on investment between 20% and 33%. That's the type of return rate that encourages buyers to take the leap of faith to buy an existing business.


So, let's give Joe a break here and call his $250k estimate his EBIT. We'll assume that his true revenue is high enough to offset all operating costs, and at the end of the day right before we get to paying taxes, he has $250k.

Using a "rule of thumb" computation, Joe should expect to pay between $750k and $1.25 million for his business.

What are the criteria for a loan to purchase a business that costs $1.25 million?

    Originally posted by http://www.cdcloans.com/small_business_tools/faq.shtml
    How much money do I have to inject for a business with start-up costs of $100,000?
    You need to come up with 30% of the total cost to start your business (not the loan request). If it takes $100,000 to start your business, you will be required to inject $30,000 (30%); you will request a loan of $70,000.

    Where can my capital injection come from?
    Your capital injection can come from your own savings, home equity or monies given to you by a friend or family member that you dont have to repay. You cannot finance your capital requirement through other sources (e.g. credit cards or another lending source). At least half of your injection must come from your own sources (savings or home equity). The rest can be gifted or an owner can carry back a note that is on full stand by. You can also borrower against your retirement accounts, which represent personal equity.


So, assuming that the business costs $1.25 million, Joe needs to bring around $375k cash to the table.

I don't know where I'm going with this other than to try to figure out if "Congratulations Joe, you're rich" was off the mark or not.







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hansen9j
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Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.36
Plus, if the US tax system is anything like the Canadian one, he'd be able to deduct the interest expense on his loan, which means he'd need even more income to get to the $250K.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.

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Corajudo
Frankfurter








Since: 7.11.02
From: Dallas, TX

Since last post: 105 days
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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.73
In response to Guru, the calculations are different if you are buying an existing business rather than starting up a business from scratch. It's one thing to buy a business with a history of earning $250k annually but quite another to buy a business that you expect to earn $250k annually. Lending is obviously going to be much more restrictive for the business which is projecting earnings of $250k.

It's hard to judge what Joe the plumber (as filtered by politicians) means by $250k in earnings. But, a lender will look at cash flow first and foremost because that's what repays the loan. Plus, you can manipulate earnings, but it's tough to manipulate cash flow.

One other thing with small businesses is that many of them are owner financed sales. So, if he is buying directly from the owner, he won't necessarily need $250k-375k in cash up front. Plus, as mentioned above, he may not need as much down to buy an existing business with a proven history.

Lastly, I don't find it at all hard to believe a 34 year old plumber, if focused and disciplined, could buy a business which nets $250k annually. By then, a plumber would have generally been working for 15 years. And, health insurance, benefits, and 401k would all have to come out of the business' income, so it's not exactly like earning $250k salary at a corporation which provides those things. Not to mention there are no sick days or vacation days with a small business--you don't work, you don't get paid.

Also, as an aside, my neighbor happens to be a 34 year old plumber. I don't know how much he makes, but his house is nicer and bigger than mine, he has a pool, his wife stays at home with the kids, his wife drives a late model Volvo SUV, he drives a new BMW330 coupe, plus he has a motorcycle and a boat (and rents a slip for his boat). I have no pool, no boat, no bike, cheaper cars, plus my wife works. I don't know his level of savings or debt, but he's certainly doing incredibly well on the surface. In fact, in terms of possessions, he does better than my wife and me, and both of us have graduate degrees!

And, while we're on the subject of anecdote, my neighbor did mention to me that it seems once he gets beyond about three employees, it just doesn't make sense to expand his business. After taxes, paperwork, and other costs, his income really doesn't go up very much. It's anecdote, so take it with a hundred grains of salt, but I did find that interesting.
BigDaddyLoco
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Since: 2.1.02

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.36
I figured these might be worth showing just for the heck of it. I thought these were fakes of some kind. This is how the first one was described to me ...

What happened was Obama had already shook the Bob's hand, and Bob was coming around the side of the table that Barack was heading towards. So McCain makes that weird face and ends up going around the right side of the table, and to not follow Obama around the same side.




No one could explain the second one.


wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
Here's some real numbers for you Guru:

Court records from his divorce in 2006 show he made 40K that year.

The business reports annual revenue of around 100K, not close to the amount he claimed.

Course there are tons of other stories out there now about him not paying his state taxes and not being a registered plumber or apprentice, but just going by the numbers this guy wasn't being realistic or honest, take your pick.
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