On the GOP side it seems like McCain is marching to the nomination despite not being not trusted by a LARGE amount of the party. Huckabee reemerged with strong showings in the south, and damn near took Missouri which would have been a huge boost to him. And Romney...well I'm just not sure what Romney can do at this point. He can't really claim the mantle of the conservative favorite with Huckabee trouncing him in the south, he lost pretty much everywhere that was a competitive state, and seems to be the guy with no clear rationale for his campaign at this point. Perhaps he can make a final stand in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states that seem like he could do well with his message of economic stewardship. Huckabee might be able to make a stand in Texas, but at this point it seems like McCain just needs to keep plodding along in order to get the nod.
On the Dem side it appears to be full fledged Armageddon, and as the movie title says there will be blood. Obama won the majority of states, Clinton won a very slim majority of delegates, Obama seems to have momentum, but the major states ahead seem to be more Clinton-leaning states. When uncommited superdelegates are factored into the equation there seems to be a possibility this could go to the convention with neither candidate having the votes to win.
This weekend they move on to Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Washington. It seems likely that Obama will take 3 out 4 of these, with only Nebraska looking like Clinton territory, but even that could be negated as it is a caucus state, where Obama has done well, winning all but one caucus state so far. Then next Tuesday we get the Beltway Primary of Virginia, Maryland, and DC, with Wisconsin and Hawaii the following week. The demographics of these states seem to favor Obama, but it seems a tossup to me. One advantage for Obama is with less states he can spend more time in each one, and the trend has been the longer he's in a state the better he does. If somehow Obama can come out of the next 14 days with most of those states as sseems quite possible, then things get very interesting going into the old Super Tuesday of March 4 with Ohio and Texas on the table, and Pennsylvania looming in the distance.
The Dem side isn't doomsday just messy. The mistake they made is to many proportional states. The Rep side was smarter in that their process is designed to winnow out the wheat from the chaff and it is working.
The Dems could get ugly but I think they are so focused on controlling Congress AND the White House that they will keep it in check and prevent a bloodbath. The wild card is how under control can Hillary keep Slick Willie.
I just think that unless things hugely break to Obama, the system is ultimately set up for Hillary. And honestly, Hillary's negatives are so huge, Obama gives them a better chance.
Finally, winning a majority of the states means diddle. He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.
Originally posted by DrDirtThe Dem side isn't doomsday just messy. The mistake they made is to many proportional states. The Rep side was smarter in that their process is designed to winnow out the wheat from the chaff and it is working.
The Dems could get ugly but I think they are so focused on controlling Congress AND the White House that they will keep it in check and prevent a bloodbath. The wild card is how under control can Hillary keep Slick Willie.
I just think that unless things hugely break to Obama, the system is ultimately set up for Hillary. And honestly, Hillary's negatives are so huge, Obama gives them a better chance.
Finally, winning a majority of the states means diddle. He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.
In practical terms of course it means diddle. But in terms of spin it sounds very good to say you won the majority of states, especially when you're campaigning against someone who has been the "establishment" candidate for so long.
I wonder how the unpledged superdelegates will break if it is close. Would the Dems want to be put in the position of having a nominee who got less of the voted on delegates but wins because of other politicians deciding to give him/her the nod? That can't end well for either side of the contest.
I made some maps to give some sense of how different states are breaking down. For both maps, I excluded votes for anyone other than the 2 remaining Democrats and the top 3 Republicans. I use total votes as much as possible, rather than delegate totals.
The Democratic map is easier to follow, since there's only the two. I forgot to include a key, but obviously Clinton is blue and Obama is red. New Mexico and Missouri are basically 50-50, to give you an idea of the dividing line. In Michigan, I counted people voting for Uncommited as voting for Obama.
For the Republicans, click it to get the full size version if you need to see the key. Gray stats like Misouri and Georgia are basically 3-way ties, and most everyone knows that Blue + Red = Purple. The only other color you might not be able to identify is the brown of Iowa, which went 47% Huckabee, 35% Romney, and 18% McCain. For West Virginia, I colored it the way it would have happened if McCain supporters hadn't switched to Huckabee.
Originally posted by DrDirt He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.
Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)
Very Funny.
Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.
More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign
By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.
Should the UAE be allowed in? How can Hillary decide fairly when Bill — and therefore herself — have been getting a reported $10 million per year from a fund that administers the investments of the Emir of Dubai, the largest component state in the UAE?
Cool bucks
Dick Morris served as Bill Clinton's political consultant for 20 years, guiding him to a successful reelection in 1996.
We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.
Originally posted by DrDirt He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.
Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)
Very Funny.
Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.
More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign
By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.
spf, not what I meant. I mean only around three million live here. Of that something like 25% are Dem and only some of those showed up as it was a really, really bad weather night. How can anyone take a state seriously that wont spend 3 million for a real primary. Winning Kansas is as important as winning Wyoming, except we do have 6 votes in the electoral college.
Originally posted by spf By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.
spf, not what I meant. I mean only around three million live here. Of that something like 25% are Dem and only some of those showed up as it was a really, really bad weather night. How can anyone take a state seriously that wont spend 3 million for a real primary. Winning Kansas is as important as winning Wyoming, except we do have 6 votes in the electoral college.
Obviously it isn't as important as some of the other states, and that's reflected in the delegates. But as long as Dems live in Kansas the state is relevant, if not as much so as others. The fact that Clinton basically conceded that and many other states on Tuesday is looking to be a bad decision right now, as all those little states have basically evened out her wins in the bigger states. Hell, Obama's wins in Utah and Kansas evened out Clinton's much more publicized win in NJ in terms of delegates.
(edited by CRZ on 7.2.08 1453) 2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
In a big-picture approach, Obama's plan of campaigning everywhere more closely matches the Dean-led DNC's 50-state plan to improve the Democrats across the country, rather than just write off some states altogether. This idea was part of the reason why the Democrats retook Congress in 2006, including winning a Congressional seat in (gasp!) Kansas.
“How is it that I am a good actor? What I do is I... pretend to be the person I’m portraying. You’re confused. Case in point: in Lord of the Rings, Peter Jackson comes to me and says ‘I would like you to be Gandalf the Wizard,’ and I said ‘You are aware that I am not really a wizard?’ and Peter Jackson said ‘I would like you to use your acting skills to portray a wizard for the duration of the show.’ So I said ‘Okay’ and then I said to myself ‘Mmm.. How do I do that?’ And this is what I did: I imagined that I was a wizard, and then I pretended, and acted, in that way on the stage. How did I know what to say? The words were written down for me in a script. How did I know where to stand? People told me where to stand." -- Sir Ian McKellen, Extras
Who ever thought a few months ago that the Dems might be headed to a Convention where there is a greater than 50/50 possibility that there will be a floor fight over the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan that could tilt the nomination, while the Republicans have John McCain pretty much sitting on the nomination, with only Huckabee and Paul Heyman, I mean Ron Paul, as his only competition remaining (except those states where Alan Keyes plans to make his last stand). The only hope the Republican Party had coming into this year of holding onto the White House could be coming through again: The Democratic Party finding a way to have sure victory in its grasp and struggling over who gets the victory, thus letting it slip into Republican hands.
One of our local gutter press shows, A Current Affair (ninemsn.com.au), trotted out a physic who has predicted that Hillary will become president and eventually become one of the most loved presidents.
Originally posted by Big GOne of our local gutter press shows, A Current Affair (ninemsn.com.au), trotted out a physic who has predicted that Hillary will become president and eventually become one of the most loved presidents.
So there you go. Case closed.
Man, I remember when A Current Affair was one of OUR gutter press shows. Those were the days.