The W
Views: 101464556
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Calendar | Color chart | Log in for more!
20.12.14 0426
The W - Current Events & Politics - Super Duper Tuesday Fallout
This thread has 4 referrals leading to it
Register and log in to post!
Thread rated: 6.77
Pages: 1
(391 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (15 total)
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 6 hours
AIM:  
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
Well, that was quite the exciting night.

On the GOP side it seems like McCain is marching to the nomination despite not being not trusted by a LARGE amount of the party. Huckabee reemerged with strong showings in the south, and damn near took Missouri which would have been a huge boost to him. And Romney...well I'm just not sure what Romney can do at this point. He can't really claim the mantle of the conservative favorite with Huckabee trouncing him in the south, he lost pretty much everywhere that was a competitive state, and seems to be the guy with no clear rationale for his campaign at this point. Perhaps he can make a final stand in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two states that seem like he could do well with his message of economic stewardship. Huckabee might be able to make a stand in Texas, but at this point it seems like McCain just needs to keep plodding along in order to get the nod.

On the Dem side it appears to be full fledged Armageddon, and as the movie title says there will be blood. Obama won the majority of states, Clinton won a very slim majority of delegates, Obama seems to have momentum, but the major states ahead seem to be more Clinton-leaning states. When uncommited superdelegates are factored into the equation there seems to be a possibility this could go to the convention with neither candidate having the votes to win.

This weekend they move on to Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Washington. It seems likely that Obama will take 3 out 4 of these, with only Nebraska looking like Clinton territory, but even that could be negated as it is a caucus state, where Obama has done well, winning all but one caucus state so far. Then next Tuesday we get the Beltway Primary of Virginia, Maryland, and DC, with Wisconsin and Hawaii the following week. The demographics of these states seem to favor Obama, but it seems a tossup to me. One advantage for Obama is with less states he can spend more time in each one, and the trend has been the longer he's in a state the better he does. If somehow Obama can come out of the next 14 days with most of those states as sseems quite possible, then things get very interesting going into the old Super Tuesday of March 4 with Ohio and Texas on the table, and Pennsylvania looming in the distance.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
Promote this thread!
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 10 days
Last activity: 1 day
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.65
Democratic delegates to date (including superdelegates):

Clinton: 783 (Pledged: 590; Super 193)
Obama: 709 (Pledged: 603; Super 106)
Edwards: 26 (Pledged: 26; Super 0)

(2,025 needed for majority)

Republican delegates to date (including unpledged):

McCain: 559 (Pledged: 542; Unpledged 17)
Romney: 265 (Pledged: 256; Unpledged 9)
Huckabee: 169 (Pledged: 166; Unpledged 3)
Paul: 16 (Pledged: 16; Unpledged 0)
Giuliani: 0

(1,191 needed for majority)



I find the most erotic part of the woman is the boobies.

Word Up, Thome
DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 15 days
Last activity: 17 hours
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.43
The Dem side isn't doomsday just messy. The mistake they made is to many proportional states. The Rep side was smarter in that their process is designed to winnow out the wheat from the chaff and it is working.

The Dems could get ugly but I think they are so focused on controlling Congress AND the White House that they will keep it in check and prevent a bloodbath. The wild card is how under control can Hillary keep Slick Willie.

I just think that unless things hugely break to Obama, the system is ultimately set up for Hillary. And honestly, Hillary's negatives are so huge, Obama gives them a better chance.

Finally, winning a majority of the states means diddle. He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.



Perception is reality
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 6 hours
AIM:  
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    The Dem side isn't doomsday just messy. The mistake they made is to many proportional states. The Rep side was smarter in that their process is designed to winnow out the wheat from the chaff and it is working.

    The Dems could get ugly but I think they are so focused on controlling Congress AND the White House that they will keep it in check and prevent a bloodbath. The wild card is how under control can Hillary keep Slick Willie.

    I just think that unless things hugely break to Obama, the system is ultimately set up for Hillary. And honestly, Hillary's negatives are so huge, Obama gives them a better chance.

    Finally, winning a majority of the states means diddle. He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.

In practical terms of course it means diddle. But in terms of spin it sounds very good to say you won the majority of states, especially when you're campaigning against someone who has been the "establishment" candidate for so long.

I wonder how the unpledged superdelegates will break if it is close. Would the Dems want to be put in the position of having a nominee who got less of the voted on delegates but wins because of other politicians deciding to give him/her the nod? That can't end well for either side of the contest.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
AWArulz
Knackwurst








Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

Since last post: 13 hours
Last activity: 9 hours
AIM:  
Y!:
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.75
    Originally posted by DrDirt
    He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.


Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)



We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.

Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 509 days
Last activity: 470 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
I made some maps to give some sense of how different states are breaking down. For both maps, I excluded votes for anyone other than the 2 remaining Democrats and the top 3 Republicans. I use total votes as much as possible, rather than delegate totals.

The Democratic map is easier to follow, since there's only the two. I forgot to include a key, but obviously Clinton is blue and Obama is red. New Mexico and Missouri are basically 50-50, to give you an idea of the dividing line. In Michigan, I counted people voting for Uncommited as voting for Obama.

Click here for Democrat Map.

For the Republicans, click it to get the full size version if you need to see the key. Gray stats like Misouri and Georgia are basically 3-way ties, and most everyone knows that Blue + Red = Purple. The only other color you might not be able to identify is the brown of Iowa, which went 47% Huckabee, 35% Romney, and 18% McCain. For West Virginia, I colored it the way it would have happened if McCain supporters hadn't switched to Huckabee.

Click here for Republican Map.

Oh and I forgot to include Alaska, but the Democrats are this color, and the Republicans are in this color.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 7.2.08 1238)
DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 15 days
Last activity: 17 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.43
    Originally posted by AWArulz
      Originally posted by DrDirt
      He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.


    Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)


Very Funny.

Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.

More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign



Perception is reality
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 6 hours
AIM:  
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by AWArulz
        Originally posted by DrDirt
        He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.


      Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)


    Very Funny.

    Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.

    More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign

By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
AWArulz
Knackwurst








Since: 28.1.02
From: Louisville, KY

Since last post: 13 hours
Last activity: 9 hours
AIM:  
Y!:
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.75
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by AWArulz
        Originally posted by DrDirt
        He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.


      Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)


    Very Funny.

    Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.

    More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,323887,00.html

She's got plenty, according to Dick Morris

Should the UAE be allowed in? How can Hillary decide fairly when Bill — and therefore herself — have been getting a reported $10 million per year from a fund that administers the investments of the Emir of Dubai, the largest component state in the UAE?

Cool bucks

Dick Morris served as Bill Clinton's political consultant for 20 years, guiding him to a successful reelection in 1996.



We'll be back right after order has been restored here in the Omni Center.

DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 15 days
Last activity: 17 hours
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.43
    Originally posted by spf
      Originally posted by DrDirt
        Originally posted by AWArulz
          Originally posted by DrDirt
          He won the KS caucauses. Whoopie.


        Hey, I hear Kansas is REAL nice - from 30k Ft :)


      Very Funny.

      Seriously, when did winning Kansas mean anything to a Dem. Last time this place went Dem for Prez was 1964.

      More interesting is Hillary pumping 5 million of her own stash into her campaign

    By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.


spf, not what I meant. I mean only around three million live here. Of that something like 25% are Dem and only some of those showed up as it was a really, really bad weather night. How can anyone take a state seriously that wont spend 3 million for a real primary. Winning Kansas is as important as winning Wyoming, except we do have 6 votes in the electoral college.



Perception is reality
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 6 hours
AIM:  
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by DrDirt
      Originally posted by spf

      By that logic John McCain shouldn't be the front runner, since most of his strength was in states that are deep blue. He won New York, Illinois, and California, and if any of those go red in 2008 I'll eat a bug.


    spf, not what I meant. I mean only around three million live here. Of that something like 25% are Dem and only some of those showed up as it was a really, really bad weather night. How can anyone take a state seriously that wont spend 3 million for a real primary. Winning Kansas is as important as winning Wyoming, except we do have 6 votes in the electoral college.

Obviously it isn't as important as some of the other states, and that's reflected in the delegates. But as long as Dems live in Kansas the state is relevant, if not as much so as others. The fact that Clinton basically conceded that and many other states on Tuesday is looking to be a bad decision right now, as all those little states have basically evened out her wins in the bigger states. Hell, Obama's wins in Utah and Kansas evened out Clinton's much more publicized win in NJ in terms of delegates.



(edited by CRZ on 7.2.08 1453)


2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 12 hours
#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.21
In a big-picture approach, Obama's plan of campaigning everywhere more closely matches the Dean-led DNC's 50-state plan to improve the Democrats across the country, rather than just write off some states altogether. This idea was part of the reason why the Democrats retook Congress in 2006, including winning a Congressional seat in (gasp!) Kansas.



“How is it that I am a good actor? What I do is I... pretend to be the person I’m portraying. You’re confused. Case in point: in Lord of the Rings, Peter Jackson comes to me and says ‘I would like you to be Gandalf the Wizard,’ and I said ‘You are aware that I am not really a wizard?’ and Peter Jackson said ‘I would like you to use your acting skills to portray a wizard for the duration of the show.’ So I said ‘Okay’ and then I said to myself ‘Mmm.. How do I do that?’ And this is what I did: I imagined that I was a wizard, and then I pretended, and acted, in that way on the stage. How did I know what to say? The words were written down for me in a script. How did I know where to stand? People told me where to stand." -- Sir Ian McKellen, Extras
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 537 days
Last activity: 537 days
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.69
Who ever thought a few months ago that the Dems might be headed to a Convention where there is a greater than 50/50 possibility that there will be a floor fight over the seating of delegates from Florida and Michigan that could tilt the nomination, while the Republicans have John McCain pretty much sitting on the nomination, with only Huckabee and Paul Heyman, I mean Ron Paul, as his only competition remaining (except those states where Alan Keyes plans to make his last stand). The only hope the Republican Party had coming into this year of holding onto the White House could be coming through again: The Democratic Party finding a way to have sure victory in its grasp and struggling over who gets the victory, thus letting it slip into Republican hands.
Big G
Potato korv








Since: 21.8.03
From: the people who brought you Steel Magnolias....

Since last post: 13 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#14 Posted on
One of our local gutter press shows, A Current Affair (ninemsn.com.au), trotted out a physic who has predicted that Hillary will become president and eventually become one of the most loved presidents.

So there you go. Case closed.
SchippeWreck
Banger








Since: 26.3.03
From: Glendale, CA

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.89
    Originally posted by Big G
    One of our local gutter press shows, A Current Affair (ninemsn.com.au), trotted out a physic who has predicted that Hillary will become president and eventually become one of the most loved presidents.

    So there you go. Case closed.


Man, I remember when A Current Affair was one of OUR gutter press shows. Those were the days.



"It's magic! We don't need to explain it!"
Thread rated: 6.77
Pages: 1
Thread ahead: Obama and McCain sweep Potomac Primary, Romney to endorse McCain
Next thread: Obama wins 5 states, Huckabee wins 2, McCain wins 1
Previous thread: Romney Suspending Campaign
(391 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
Well, it looks like Bin Laden IS still alive. I was really begining to wonder if the US got him in the mountains without knowing it. With all the money and all the man powere going into tracking this guy he remains a ghost.
The W - Current Events & Politics - Super Duper Tuesday FalloutRegister and log in to post!

The W™ message board

ZimBoard
©2001-2014 Brothers Zim

This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.129 seconds.