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The W - Current Events & Politics - Some Interesting Poll #'s for Bush...
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spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 28 days
Last activity: 3 days
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#1 Posted on
From Christian Science Monitor (csmonitor.com) comes a poll about American's thoughts on the economy and the Bush tax cut proposals. If these numbers are able to be taken as accurate or close to it, there's a lot of ammo here to be spun by the Dems as we start to ramp up for 2004 about the nature of the cut and the economy in general. Some highlights:

- 36% of Americans feel it likely they will see any results personally from the tax cut. 38% say "not at all likely" and 21% "not very likely".

-This could be due to the fact that despite people's assertion that many people will benefit from this, 56% of Americans do not have as much as $10,000 in the market via stocks or mutual funds/401K plans. Thus for most Americans dividend cuts will be a total non-starter.

- People are split as to how they feel about current economic policy, with 55% being at least somewhat satisfied, and 45% somewhat dissatisfied. In one good bit of news for Bush 56% do think his tax cuts will help the economy.

- However this is tempered by the fact that only 38% of people think there will be improvement in the economy, while 62% feel it will stay the same or get worse.

- Perhaps the scariest news is that the attempt to try and deflect economic blame to the previous administration is not working, as 66% say the current administration's economic policies are responsible for the weak job market.

Overall there seems to me to be fertile ground for someone to sow some electoral discontent in 2004 if things don't get better soon. And considering that we are in the weakest job market since the early 90's (story.news.yahoo.com) that could be a tough proposition.

-



and maybe I should open up my sensitive side/but really, the sensitive side sucks./I've been there./You can only imagine the kinds of sweaters they make you wear.

NWA:TNA - I swear Russo is about a week away from making me pull this link.
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Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1213 days
Last activity: 1010 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Ah...hunting and pecking the same numbers also shows that:

- Only 10 percent expect their quality of life to decline during the next six months

- Only 24 percent think the country's economic situation will worsen.

- 83 percent expect its value to increase in the next year or so. Eleven percent expect its value to decline further.

So it's all a wash. On top of that, no Democrat has an economic policy. While you could argue that Bush's tax cut policy is or is not working, he at least has a plan.

I'd be more interested to see what the cross-tabs say...

(edited by Grimis on 17.6.03 1252)


"Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of citizens to keep and bear arms. This is not to say that firearms should not be very carefully used and that definite safety rules of precaution should not be taught and enforced. But the right of citizens to bear arms is just one more guarantee against arbitrary government, one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible."
- Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, 1960
spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 28 days
Last activity: 3 days
AIM:  
#3 Posted on
A couple of things:

- yes, there are positives in there for Bush. However the idea is that there are clouds on the horizon, as opposed to the cakewalk that some otherwise intelligent people seem to think 2004 is going to be.

- I'm not sure that the economy "staying the same" will help Bush very much, so to me it's a negative factor that a majority see no improvement on the horizon. If things were going good I'd change that opinion, but people's opinion of the current economy is bad, so stasis is bad for Bush.

- As for the stock market part, I'm not sure how much that will help George since so many people seem to understand that they are disattached from the success of the market.

- And regarding the Democrats thing, I would be surprised if anyone announced a comprehensive economic plan in June 2003. This campaign is still in the whisper mode, and only political nerds like us on this board are paying any attention thus far. Though I admit to being wholly underwhelmed by the current crop of candidates.



and maybe I should open up my sensitive side/but really, the sensitive side sucks./I've been there./You can only imagine the kinds of sweaters they make you wear.

NWA:TNA - I swear Russo is about a week away from making me pull this link.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1213 days
Last activity: 1010 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by spf2119
    However the idea is that there are clouds on the horizon, as opposed to the cakewalk that some otherwise intelligent people seem to think 2004 is going to be.

As one of those "intelligent people" it all depends on what the candidates do from here on out and what brushfires come up. The only way I see this not being a Bush rout(and we're talking McGovern '72 and Mondale '84 numbers) at this point is:

1. The economy goes much farther south in a hurry;
2. One of the Democratic Candidates get a clue;
3. Hillary runs; or,
4. The questions of the Iraqi evidence is much deeper than anticipated and it does turn into a quagmire.

Other than that, there is no empirical evidence to convince me otherwise. Many voters have trended conservative since the Reagan years and 9/11 only sped that process along.


    Originally posted by spf2119
    And regarding the Democrats thing, I would be surprised if anyone announced a comprehensive economic plan in June 2003. This campaign is still in the whisper mode, and only political nerds like us on this board are paying any attention thus far. Though I admit to being wholly underwhelmed by the current crop of candidates.

True, but both Gephardt and Dean have discussed comprehensive health care packages. Health care is a crucial issue(especially in regards to the Democratic primaries) but there is nothing within their rhetoric or organziations that leads me to believe that they have a plan, announced or otherwise.

(edited by Grimis on 17.6.03 1316)


"Certainly one of the chief guarantees of freedom under any government, no matter how popular and respected, is the right of citizens to keep and bear arms. This is not to say that firearms should not be very carefully used and that definite safety rules of precaution should not be taught and enforced. But the right of citizens to bear arms is just one more guarantee against arbitrary government, one more safeguard against a tyranny which now appears remote in America, but which historically has proved to be always possible."
- Sen. Hubert H. Humphrey, 1960
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Man, I love the Offbeat News section of CNN.com. A couple weeks ago, Sydney, Australia adopted a pre-emptive terrorism policy which basically boils down to "If you see something, say something.
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