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The W - Football - So I've decided to start my own NCAA football computer poll
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 6 days
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
For the last few years now, I have been toying around with the idea of trying to find a formula for calculating the top teams in the former Div I-A.

I finally decided on a system that doesn't try to come up with whom could beat whom but a system that tries to decide on which team has accomplished the most.

Teams are rewarded greater for beating "stronger" teams vs "weak" teams and are penalized greater for losing to "weak" teaks vs "stronger" teams.

The only thing that is considered in my formula are wins vs the I-A and losses. That's it. It is loosely based on an ELO scoring system with each team starting with 1200 points in the pre-season.

Here is my top 25. You can view the whole list on my webpage here.

Rank Team Record Rating
1 Ohio State 10-0 1312.65622
2 LSU 8-1 1308.08900
3 Kansas 9-0 1296.23390
4 Oregon 8-1 1292.68056
5 Arizona State 8-1 1291.37613

6 Oklahoma 8-1 1282.89871
7 UConn 8-1 1280.78693
8 Boston College 8-1 1280.70874
9 Virginia 8-2 1279.51879
10 Missouri 8-1 1278.64045

11 West Virginia 7-1 1273.88775
12 Georgia 7-2 1272.48383
13 Texas 8-2 1268.78584
14 Virginia Tech 7-2 1264.43309
15 Auburn 7-3 1263.42862

16 Boise State 8-1 1263.22265
17 Florida 6-3 1263.01389
18 USC 7-2 1262.64013
19 Michigan 8-2 1262.28657
20 Penn State 7-3 1261.16228

21 Clemson 7-2 1255.80080
22 Tennessee 6-2 1253.24944
23 Hawaii 8-0 1250.74543
24 Florida State 6-3 1250.37957
25 Cincinnati 7-1 1249.04238


edit: Blarg, the pre tags didn't help much. I'll put it into a table later. South Park is on.

(edited by Zeruel on 7.11.07 2201)


-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
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Eddie Famous
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Since: 11.12.01
From: Catlin IL

Since last post: 247 days
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.37

    Originally posted by Zeruel
    It is loosely based on an ELO scoring system


Is this based on how each team can hold on tight to their dreams?

    Originally posted by Zeruel
    I finally decided on a system that doesn't try to come up with whom could beat whom but a system that tries to decide on which team has accomplished the most.


So how does that explain how Penn State is in your top 25 that high?




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drjayphd
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Since: 22.4.02
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.92
You wanted the best, you got... Out of Context Quote of the Week.

"All because he got over seven years ago forcing rimjobs on people against their will?" (Hogan's My Dad)


UConn at #7? Cue the pitchforked mobs.



Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 6 days
Last activity: 2 hours
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by Eddie Famous
    So how does that explain how Penn State is in your top 25 that high?



Actually, I have them only one place higher than most polls.

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Massey (of the BCS) has compiled a list of computer polls around the net (mine is under Catastrophic) and the consensus of 113 computer polls has PSU at 21. I have them at 20. Their average ranking from that list is 22.17 and their high and low is 7th and 43rd.

The polls closer to the left have a higher correlation to the consensus than those to the right. My poll came in 55th closest to consensus out of 113. Not too bad for a first try.

According to my data (I don't include the game in question, so whomever beats Ohio State will get credit for beating an undefeated, for example) they got big wins from: a 7-2 Purdue and 7-2 Wisconsin who both have near identical SOSs, beat a 1-7 Notre Dame with a very high SOS (which could be a flaw in my formula).

Their loss to Michigan hurt them earlier in the season but their win streak has lessened the impact of that loss. Like more teams that lost to OSU, getting beat by an undefeated is expected, so they didn't lose that many points.

As the Big Ten goes, here is how those teams fall in my poll:

1 -- Ohio State
19 -- Michigan -- They would be higher if not for that loss to App State
20 -- Penn State
29 -- Illinois
30 -- Purdue
32 -- Wisconsin
51 -- Indiana
61 -- Iowa
64 -- Michigan State
71 -- Northwestern
114 -- Minnesota



    UConn at #7? Cue the pitchforked mobs.


In that above link, the consensus is that they should be 11. Their average ranking is 13.3 and their high and low ranking is 5th and 36th.

(edited by Zeruel on 8.11.07 0052)


-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
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