Originally posted by ZeruelIt is loosely based on an ELO scoring system
Is this based on how each team can hold on tight to their dreams?
Originally posted by ZeruelI finally decided on a system that doesn't try to come up with whom could beat whom but a system that tries to decide on which team has accomplished the most.
So how does that explain how Penn State is in your top 25 that high?
As of 2/28/05: 101 pounds since December 7, 2004 OFFICIAL THREE-MONTH COUNT: 112 pounds on March 9, 2005 OFFICIAL SIX-MONTH COUNT: 142 pounds on June 8, 2005 OFFICIAL ONE YEAR COUNT: 187 pounds on December 7, 2005 As of 2/27/06: 202 pounds "I've lost a heavyweight" As of 7/31/06: 224 pounds
As of 10/31/07: Still 217 down! Now announcing for the NBWA! www.wdws.com home of DWS Sportsnight and downstate radio home of thecubsfan!
Massey (of the BCS) has compiled a list of computer polls around the net (mine is under Catastrophic) and the consensus of 113 computer polls has PSU at 21. I have them at 20. Their average ranking from that list is 22.17 and their high and low is 7th and 43rd.
The polls closer to the left have a higher correlation to the consensus than those to the right. My poll came in 55th closest to consensus out of 113. Not too bad for a first try.
According to my data (I don't include the game in question, so whomever beats Ohio State will get credit for beating an undefeated, for example) they got big wins from: a 7-2 Purdue and 7-2 Wisconsin who both have near identical SOSs, beat a 1-7 Notre Dame with a very high SOS (which could be a flaw in my formula).
Their loss to Michigan hurt them earlier in the season but their win streak has lessened the impact of that loss. Like more teams that lost to OSU, getting beat by an undefeated is expected, so they didn't lose that many points.
As the Big Ten goes, here is how those teams fall in my poll:
1 -- Ohio State 19 -- Michigan -- They would be higher if not for that loss to App State 20 -- Penn State 29 -- Illinois 30 -- Purdue 32 -- Wisconsin 51 -- Indiana 61 -- Iowa 64 -- Michigan State 71 -- Northwestern 114 -- Minnesota
UConn at #7? Cue the pitchforked mobs.
In that above link, the consensus is that they should be 11. Their average ranking is 13.3 and their high and low ranking is 5th and 36th.
(edited by Zeruel on 8.11.07 0052)
-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --
"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
The Bert Jones card is pretty neat too. I remember a game he played back in the "tear-a-way" jersey days when he went thru all two or three of his own jerseys and had to finish the game with his back-up QB's jersey. Dude was tough.