Originally posted by ZeruelIt is loosely based on an ELO scoring system
Is this based on how each team can hold on tight to their dreams?
Originally posted by ZeruelI finally decided on a system that doesn't try to come up with whom could beat whom but a system that tries to decide on which team has accomplished the most.
So how does that explain how Penn State is in your top 25 that high?
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Massey (of the BCS) has compiled a list of computer polls around the net (mine is under Catastrophic) and the consensus of 113 computer polls has PSU at 21. I have them at 20. Their average ranking from that list is 22.17 and their high and low is 7th and 43rd.
The polls closer to the left have a higher correlation to the consensus than those to the right. My poll came in 55th closest to consensus out of 113. Not too bad for a first try.
According to my data (I don't include the game in question, so whomever beats Ohio State will get credit for beating an undefeated, for example) they got big wins from: a 7-2 Purdue and 7-2 Wisconsin who both have near identical SOSs, beat a 1-7 Notre Dame with a very high SOS (which could be a flaw in my formula).
Their loss to Michigan hurt them earlier in the season but their win streak has lessened the impact of that loss. Like more teams that lost to OSU, getting beat by an undefeated is expected, so they didn't lose that many points.
As the Big Ten goes, here is how those teams fall in my poll:
1 -- Ohio State 19 -- Michigan -- They would be higher if not for that loss to App State 20 -- Penn State 29 -- Illinois 30 -- Purdue 32 -- Wisconsin 51 -- Indiana 61 -- Iowa 64 -- Michigan State 71 -- Northwestern 114 -- Minnesota
UConn at #7? Cue the pitchforked mobs.
In that above link, the consensus is that they should be 11. Their average ranking is 13.3 and their high and low ranking is 5th and 36th.
(edited by Zeruel on 8.11.07 0052)
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Oh, I got it. Addy was referring to the weather. He wasn't saying the Bills would be tough, but that the Packers' Frozen Tundra wouldn't make a difference to Buffalo. Doh! I still don't buy the "under 40 degrees" theory though.