The W
Views: 101536904
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Calendar | Color chart | Log in for more!
22.12.14 0652
The W - Football - Slide rules and protractors determine Packers' playoff potential (Page 2)
This thread has 38 referrals leading to it
Register and log in to post!
Thread rated: 6.36
Pages: Prev 1 2 3 4 5 Next
(1866 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (86 total)
Gugs
Bierwurst








Since: 9.7.02
From: Sleep (That's where I'm a viking)

Since last post: 578 days
Last activity: 28 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#21 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.18
(deleted by gugs on 28.12.03 0256)
thecubsfan
Scrapple
Moderator








Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

Since last post: 19 hours
Last activity: 5 hours
#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
Am I insane if I was so bugged by their lack of explaining the Strength of Victory scenerios that I had to go figure it out myself? Because I did.

I'll post the table I came up with as soon as I find a nicer way to pull it of Excel than what Microsoft allows, but here's the breakdown.

GIVEN:
- MIN beats ARZ AND
- GB beats DEN AND
- NO beats DAL
(if any thing else happens in those games, this doesn't come into play, of course)

Seattle holds a big edge in the Strength of Victory department, and are the favorites to go on if it comes that. Dallas can only win the Strength of Victory tie breaker over them via:
NYG defeats CAR AND
NYJ defeats MIA AND
KC defeats CHI AND
DET defeats STL AND
CIN defeats CLE AND
BAL defeats PIT

If the dice rolls that way, GB and DAL are in. If ONE of those are a tie instead of a defeat, it'll also work. We'll ignore the wackyness of multiple ties

(EDIT 2: next paragraph redone)

There is a situation where Strength of Victory ties if only one of those games goes the wrong way, as far as DAL/GB care. In that case, we go to Strength of Schedule. As it stands right now and including the games that'd have to break right before Strength of Victory comes into play, DAL's opponents have 111 wins and SEA's opponents have 115 wins. If NYG and DET won (plus one either way from NYJ/MIA), they'd get 115 - but SEA played the AFC Central this year, and picks up 2 wins just from the CIN/CLE and PIT/BAL games taking place. There's no way for DAL to win this tie breaker, and no way from GB to sneak in if comes to this.

Bottomline is there's a sliver of a chance that GB sneaks in even if DAL loses, but for any real shots, they need either MIN or NO to lose to get in.

(and then they'll be out in the first round anyway, pbbbbbbbbbbbt.)

(EDIT 1: Please! Feel free to check my work! I need to know.)

(edited by thecubsfan on 28.12.03 0154)

(edited by thecubsfan on 28.12.03 0218)

thecubsfan.com - CMLLBlog
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 4 hours
#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54
I think we're all forgetting how often the Vikings choke.
All Green Bay has to do is win, and they're basically in. Come on, you Arizona Cardinals!



Rob asks Dave and Ric if they want to go backstage to play Hungry Hungry Hippos and Flair and Batista immediately bail. Flair wants to be Green. Man, EVERYBODY wants to be green. Except the girl in the commercials. She wanted to be pink. That either means that the ad agency was sexist or that she was communist. Of course Hungry Hungry Hippos is a rather capitalist game isnt it? No self respecting communist would play Hungry Hungry Hippos. Except Stalin. He LOVED Hungry Hungry Hippos. God, Ive got no clue what the hell Im rambling about anymore.-- Matt "Excalibur05" Hocking, Raw Satire writer extraordinaire

You know, I just can't call it the "WWE." I just can't. My body's rejecting it like a bad liver transplant.-- Bill Simmons, espn.com/page2
Gugs
Bierwurst








Since: 9.7.02
From: Sleep (That's where I'm a viking)

Since last post: 578 days
Last activity: 28 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.18
And the Lord said, "Behold! I give unto thee..."
Isn't Dallas in already? I thought that if Seattle's SOV was better than Dallas', the last two playoff spots would go to Minnesota (winning the NFC North) and Seattle (the second Wild Card team). Or are you just counting Dallas because they're the first Wild Card team?

Of course, this is all moot if Dallas wins, because that sends Green Bay and Minnesota to the playoffs, right? Or is there still a way where Minnesota can lose the NFC North and have Green Bay and Seattle go?

(edited by gugs on 28.12.03 0301)


    Originally posted by ringmistress
    You may not believe this, but one year, I pretended I was a mistress (of the S&M variety). I was told I had the right voice for it. Just wanted to let you know that.


I love this place.
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 17 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
Dallas is in.

What is to be decided is if they are 5 or 6 seed, and if GB/SEA is the other seed.

SOV will determine that. Remember, SOV is a slimmed down SOS, where only the Wins are counted in the calculations, not the whole SOS.

I think SOS should be above SOV in the tie breaking, but that's just me. Why? because another tie breaker is total pts scored, and then after that it's total touchdowns scored. They took a big pool of information, then refined it. Total score -> Total TDs.

It SHOULD go SOS -> SOV

Who played the harder sch. should get the tie breaker THEN it should go "Ok, both played equal sch's, who BEAT teams with a high winning percentage?" as the next tie breaker...

But, whatever...it's better than having MOV (Margin Of Victory) and seeing the scenarios go "If Dallas wins by 62 points or more and Philly wins by 61 or less, or ties or loses..."




"The band is OUT ON THE FIELD!!!"

thecubsfan
Scrapple
Moderator








Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

Since last post: 19 hours
Last activity: 5 hours
#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
Dallas is IN because...well, I haven't really bothered to check why they're in, that's right. I believe Mr. Television set.

Let's see if I can figure out and explain it. NFL Tiebreakers for three or more teams.

To get to the confusing situation, GB, DAL, and SEA would all have to end up with 10-6 records. (MIN does as well, but other unrelated tiebreaker stuff is going on to give them the division - it's a Strength of Victory thing.)

Step 2 is head to head sweep, but no team has beaten both of the others (GB did beat SEA, but did not beat DAL.)

Step 3 is best Win/Loss in the NFC
DAL 8-4 (after losing to NO)
SEA 8-4
GB 7-5
Packers are eliminated, and we move on.

Step 4 is that funky Strength of Victory
If DAL ends up winning this, that means they take the tie breaker. and we restart the whole thing again for the last wild card with only GB and SEA
Step 1, skip
Step 2: Head to Head - GB d. Sea, GB gets the 6th seed.

If SEA ends up winnings this, they take #5 and we restart with DAL and GB for the 6th seed.
Step 1, skip
Step 2, skip
Step 3, NFC record: DAL d. GB.

So, we've learned
- DAL is in either way.
- Tiebreaker 4 matters less in which team gets thru, but who's left to be around to battle for the sixth seed.

SEA gets in
- GB loses
- GB wins AND MIN loses
- GB wins AND MIN wins and NO wins and at least one of CAR, MIA, CHI, STL, CLE or PIT wins.

MIN gets in
- GB loses
- MIN wins

GB gets in
- GB wins AND MIN loses
- GB wins AND DAL wins
- GB wins AND NO wins (aka DAL loses) AND NYG wins AND NYJ wins AND KC wins AND DET wins AND CIN wins

This helps? After figuring this out, I'm pretty sure no one's going to explain this on Sunday unless MIN, GB and NO all win, although the chart's not too hard.

(edited by thecubsfan on 28.12.03 0244)


thecubsfan.com - CMLLBlog
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

Since last post: 4 hours
Last activity: 3 hours
AIM:  
ICQ:  
Y!:
#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
Cubs, you amaze me at the lengths you go to avoid sleeping. (Wait, I'm up despite having to be at work in two hours - hmm)

Entering play today, Seattle's strength of victory is .395 and Dallas' is .383. There are nine games today that will affect those numbers. - http://www.jsonline.com/ packer/rev/dec03/195809.asp

Dallas' current strength of victory percentage (assuming it loses to the Saints) is .383 (59-95) with wins over the Giants (4-11), Jets (6-9), Cardinals (3-12), Eagles (12-4), Lions (4-11), Redskins (5-11), Bills (6-10), Panthers (10-5), Redskins (5-11) and Giants (4-11).

Seattle's strength of victory percentage is .399 (61-92) with wins over the Saints (8-8), Cardinals (3-12), Rams (12-3), 49ers (7-9), Bears (7-8), Steelers (6-9), Lions (4-11), Browns (4-11), Cardinals (3-12) and 49ers (7-9).
-
http://www.packersnews.com/ archives/news/pack_13906011.shtml [Again, the Saints win is assumed for purposes of calculation]

Let me see if I can figure it out quick 'n' dirty. Nine games affecting the numbers, said the Milwaukee paper. They must be:

CHI (7-8) @ KC - affects Seattle
CLE (4-11) @ CIN - affects Seattle
NYJ (6-9) @ MIA - affects Dallas
STL (12-3) @ DET (4-11) - affects Dallas AND Seattle (but not really)
CAR (10-5) @ NYG (4-11) - affects Dallas
MIN @ ARI (3-12) - affects both teams - a wash
PIT (6-9) @ BAL - affects Seattle

and the Saints game makes eight. Hmmm. Maybe they're counting the Packers game, even though they shouldn't? Maybe it's a mistake? I'll move on.

Assume a Vikings win (since we can only kick off this scenario in a way that interests *ME* if Green Bay doesn't take the North) and now Dallas' SOV is .381 (59-96).

The Rams/Lions game will give the Hawks the equivalent of a win and a loss no matter what (either 1-1 or 0-0-2) - so let's again assume that Vikings win (which actually counts twice for Seattle, by virtue of two wins over the Cardinals) and now THEIR SOV is .395 (62-95).

Geez, NOW it's a lot closer. Or is it?

Both teams finishing 10-6 means there are 160 games counted towards SOV (10 wins * 16 game schedule). If the above is correct, there are only 5 undecided outcomes to add to the Dallas total and THREE to add to Seattle's!

The Dallas components:
CAR 10-5
NYJ 6-9
DET 4-11
NYG 4-11
NYG 4-11

With the Panthers and the Giants are playing each other, the most wins Dallas can pick up is four (if the Jets AND the Lions AND the Giants win - Giants counting for two). That'd put their SOV at .39375 (63-97). Also, this seems very unlikely, even with the Giants and Lions both playing at home.

Seattle components:
CHI 7-8
CLE 4-11
PIT 6-9

If the worst (for Seattle) happens and ALL of these end up losses - and keep in mind they're all underdogs on the road - they'd finish at .3875 (62-98). If they get wins from any TWO of these, it will guarantee a better SOV than Dallas' maximum possibility. If they manage to tie, then it's strength of schedule - Cubs said Seattle has that and I'm not inclined to try to disprove him.

I guess all things being equal, I should really just root for the Packers and Cardinals - easier to root for one 3-12 team than a whole bunch of 4-11 teams...



CRZ
Gugs
Bierwurst








Since: 9.7.02
From: Sleep (That's where I'm a viking)

Since last post: 578 days
Last activity: 28 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.18
Do you want it to be interesting or do you want the Pack in the playoffs? Root for Green Bay and Dallas.



    Originally posted by CRZ on January 4, 2001
    Somebody should remind Jericho that Y2K is over and he risks dating himself.


    Originally posted by CRZ on December 24, 2001
    Look, it's almost 2002 - is there ANY chance we'll see the "Y2J" moniker fall by the wayside ANY time soon?
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

Since last post: 4 hours
Last activity: 3 hours
AIM:  
ICQ:  
Y!:
#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
    Originally posted by gugs
    Do you want it to be interesting or do you want the Pack in the playoffs? Root for Green Bay and Dallas.
You have a point...although I'll still root for the Vikings to choke and hand us the North as well. :)



CRZ
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 9 days
Last activity: 4 hours
#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54
Root for Dallas? Ugh...for the greater good, for the greater good.



Rob asks Dave and Ric if they want to go backstage to play Hungry Hungry Hippos and Flair and Batista immediately bail. Flair wants to be Green. Man, EVERYBODY wants to be green. Except the girl in the commercials. She wanted to be pink. That either means that the ad agency was sexist or that she was communist. Of course Hungry Hungry Hippos is a rather capitalist game isnt it? No self respecting communist would play Hungry Hungry Hippos. Except Stalin. He LOVED Hungry Hungry Hippos. God, Ive got no clue what the hell Im rambling about anymore.-- Matt "Excalibur05" Hocking, Raw Satire writer extraordinaire

You know, I just can't call it the "WWE." I just can't. My body's rejecting it like a bad liver transplant.-- Bill Simmons, espn.com/page2
The 5th Horseman
Kolbasz








Since: 23.10.02
From: Myrtle Beach, South Carolina

Since last post: 3063 days
Last activity: 3052 days
#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.09
It's much clearer now. Dallas fell apart vs. New Orleans (thanks to 3 Quincy Carter INTs and their leading rusher getting only 26 yards).

So, Seattle and Dallas get the wildcard spots and the only NFC spot left is the division winner between Green Bay and Minnesota.


And, what about the St. Louis Rams losing to Detroit and choking up the crucial home field advantage to Philadelphia?


(edited by The 5th Horseman on 28.12.03 1632)
Shem the Penman
Toulouse








Since: 16.1.02
From: The Off-Center of the Universe (aka Philadelphia)

Since last post: 323 days
Last activity: 122 days
#32 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.02
As an Eagles fan, all I can say is -- I don't know what the hell Joey Harrington had for breakfast today, but I hope McNabb is stocking up on it.



"I do have a degree in electrical engineering... from almost 20 years ago. Punchcard systems were just becoming obsolete, we had rotary phones in the dorms, and a modem was still a gizmo the size of a shoebox into which you squooshed the phone receiver itself. In short, we lived like animals.

The instant obsolesence is why I became a writer. The rate of punctuation in a sentence doesn't double every 18 friggin' months, and you never have some 22-year-old looming over your shoulder, shaking his head, saying "dude... you're still using adverbs...?"

-- Bob Harris
cranlsn
Liverwurst








Since: 18.3.02
From: Sussex, WI

Since last post: 47 days
Last activity: 6 hours
#33 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.35

Dammit, dammit, dammit! It figures...the Packers are having just an awesome game and they'll be left out of the playoffs because the Cardinals are laying down, and some (%$(&% three way tie rules.

It just seems wrong that a team that we have the tie breakers over goes because it's a three way tie....

But then again, our record should be 14-2 (Phillie, KC, Detroit and Arizona)...so what ya gonna do...

(edited by cranlsn on 28.12.03 1746)





Jaguar
Knackwurst








Since: 23.1.02
From: Phoenix, AZ

Since last post: 258 days
Last activity: 59 days
#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.03
I think you got confused. The Cardinals aren't the ones laying down. They've actually just cut the Viking's lead down to one score (and flubbed the two point conversion). It's Denver who's been laying down for the Pack. I doubt the game would be going quite as well for you guys if Denver wasn't resting their guys.

-Jag



"I'm going to go now and demand beer money from my representative. We simply must deal with the problem of my sobriety." - PalpatineW
JoshMann
Andouille








Since: 17.11.03
From: Tallahassee, FL

Since last post: 2352 days
Last activity: 2349 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#35 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.15
    Originally posted by thecubsfan
    Dallas is IN because...well, I haven't really bothered to check why they're in, that's right. I believe Mr. Television set.

    Let's see if I can figure out and explain it. NFL Tiebreakers for three or more teams.

    To get to the confusing situation, GB, DAL, and SEA would all have to end up with 10-6 records. (MIN does as well, but other unrelated tiebreaker stuff is going on to give them the division - it's a Strength of Victory thing.)

    Step 2 is head to head sweep, but no team has beaten both of the others (GB did beat SEA, but did not beat DAL.)

    Step 3 is best Win/Loss in the NFC
    DAL 8-4 (after losing to NO)
    SEA 8-4
    GB 7-5
    Packers are eliminated, and we move on.

    Step 4 is that funky Strength of Victory
    If DAL ends up winning this, that means they take the tie breaker. and we restart the whole thing again for the last wild card with only GB and SEA
    Step 1, skip
    Step 2: Head to Head - GB d. Sea, GB gets the 6th seed.

    If SEA ends up winnings this, they take #5 and we restart with DAL and GB for the 6th seed.
    Step 1, skip
    Step 2, skip
    Step 3, NFC record: DAL d. GB.

    So, we've learned
    - DAL is in either way.
    - Tiebreaker 4 matters less in which team gets thru, but who's left to be around to battle for the sixth seed.

    SEA gets in
    - GB loses
    - GB wins AND MIN loses
    - GB wins AND MIN wins and NO wins and at least one of CAR, MIA, CHI, STL, CLE or PIT wins.

    MIN gets in
    - GB loses
    - MIN wins

    GB gets in
    - GB wins AND MIN loses
    - GB wins AND DAL wins
    - GB wins AND NO wins (aka DAL loses) AND NYG wins AND NYJ wins AND KC wins AND DET wins AND CIN wins

    This helps? After figuring this out, I'm pretty sure no one's going to explain this on Sunday unless MIN, GB and NO all win, although the chart's not too hard.

    (edited by thecubsfan on 28.12.03 0244)


If the playoff formula also involved any of these teams travelling back in time, I think my head would explode.

As it is it gave me a migrane

(edited by Blanket Jackson on 28.12.03 1902)


Hey! Back off big man, that may work with the chicks but not with me
Java
Goetta








Since: 2.1.02
From: Chandler, AZ

Since last post: 16 days
Last activity: 1 hour
#36 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.00
Caridnals just threw a touchdown pass on 4th and 24 to beat the Vikes! I can't beliebe they actually won... good for Packer fans, but we blew the first pick in the draft! :>
cranlsn
Liverwurst








Since: 18.3.02
From: Sussex, WI

Since last post: 47 days
Last activity: 6 hours
#37 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.35

YES,YES,YES,YES,YES!!!!!!!

How surreal...how many other times are you EVER going to hear all the Cheeseheads yelling "Let's go Cardinals!"?

I may have no voice left soon....

In the immortal words of Ric Flair..."Whoooo!"






JoshMann
Andouille








Since: 17.11.03
From: Tallahassee, FL

Since last post: 2352 days
Last activity: 2349 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#38 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.15
HO-LEE CRAP!

I don't know how reigious the Packer fans in here are, but regardless of that look to the sky and thank SOMETHING.







Hey! Back off big man, that may work with the chicks but not with me
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

Since last post: 4 hours
Last activity: 3 hours
AIM:  
ICQ:  
Y!:
#39 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.65
HOLY FUCKING SHIT
HOLY FUCKING SHIT



CRZ
Jaguar
Knackwurst








Since: 23.1.02
From: Phoenix, AZ

Since last post: 258 days
Last activity: 59 days
#40 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.03
My Cardinals beat my Vikings, and I officially hate the Packers. You had my goodwill, but when you steal our playoff spot, revenge will be had.

Let's go Panthers!

Let's go Broncos!

-Jag

Die Pack Die



"I'm going to go now and demand beer money from my representative. We simply must deal with the problem of my sobriety." - PalpatineW
Pages: Prev 1 2 3 4 5 Next
Thread rated: 6.36
Pages: Prev 1 2 3 4 5 Next
Thread ahead: Giants to hire Coughlin
Next thread: Congrats LSU
Previous thread: This is a train wreck........
(1866 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
Okay, could someone please explain how Dayne managed to move into "servicable" status?
- drjayphd, Wha'happen to Ron Dayne?! (2002)
Related threads: Freeman shows you can go home again; Signs with The Pack - Packers: The Dream is Over - Dammit...more injured Packers. - More...
The W - Football - Slide rules and protractors determine Packers' playoff potential (Page 2)Register and log in to post!

The W™ message board

ZimBoard
©2001-2014 Brothers Zim

This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.155 seconds.