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23.9.14 0526
The W - Football - Simulating the Super Bowl ... who got it right?
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Alessandro
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Since: 2.1.02
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.04
It seems that everyone feels the need to simulate the outcome of the Super Bowl using video games ...

The Philadelphia Enquirer did it with Sega's "ESPN NFL 2K5" for the Xbox, but wouldn't fess up to an actual final score :

    Originally posted by Rob Watson
    About 15 minutes after the New England Patriots beat the Pittsburgh Steelers a couple Sundays ago, the commentators started talking about matchups. Could the Eagles figure out the Pats' defense? Could we put pressure on Pats quarterback Tom Brady? I chose another authority for analysis - my football video game (Sega's ESPN NFL 2K5 for Xbox, in this case).

    I've been running an Eagles vs. Patriots simulation every night since. The games are always close, usually coming down to three points by either kicker toward the end of the game, but the Birds hold their own.

    The electronic Eagles tend to do much better if T.O. is on the field, so keep your fingers crossed. Try it before the game Sunday; in this case, you can always play the game over if the Eagles don't come out on top.


The official EA Sports web site did it with - of course - "Madden NFL 2005" for the PS2, picking the Patriots to win 26-21 :

    Originally posted by EA Sports
    Brady finished 19 of 31 passing, for 287 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Dillon had 94 yards rushing for the Pats, while Branch racked up 85 receiving yards. Rodney Harrison had 10 tackles and an interception while Tedy Bruschi added five tackles and a sack for the Patriot defense. On the Philadelphia side, McNabb ended 24 of 34 for 242 yards, two scores and a pick, and Westbrook had 83 yards on the ground. Owens managed four catches but Westbrook was also the leading receiver with 85 yards. Defensively, Jevon Kearse had six tackles and two sacks in the losing effort.


The Charlotte Observer did it with both Madden and NFL 2K5 (no console specified), and claimed that "the Eagles won the big game" both times (without providing a score) :

    Originally posted by LANGSTON WERTZ JR.
    If you don't want to know who's going to win Sunday's Super Bowl, stop reading now. EA Sports used its Madden NFL title to simulate Sunday's game and came up with this result: New England 26, Philly 21.

    The Madden game is based on real NFL players using real attributes. In the simulation, Tom Brady hit Troy Brown with an early scoring pass to give the Patriots a 7-0 lead. But Terrell Owens plays in this game and ties it with a long-scoring pass from Donovan McNabb.

    The game got close in the second half and Philly managed a 21-20 lead late in the fourth quarter after McNabb hit the talkative Freddy Mitchell with a go-ahead score.

    New England uses running back Corey Dillon to eat up the clock on the final scoring drive. He scores with just more than a minute to play. The two-point conversion fails, but New England's defense shuts down McNabb and the Patriots win.

    I wasn't convinced, so I used my own Madden game to simulate the Super Bowl. In my simulations -- with Madden and NFL 2K5 -- the Eagles won the big game.


The Idaho Statesman did it, with Madden for the PS2 (and two Boise State football players - Gerald Alexander and Josh Smith - taking on the roles of the Pats and Eagles, respectively) as New England came out on top 38-15 :

    Originally posted by Chadd Cripe
    Both players hold up four fingers, a reference to the Broncos’ tradition of doing just that at the end of the third quarter in games.
    Smith’s controller locks up.

    Smith: “That’s why he beat me. I had a glitchy controller the whole time.”

    Alexander swaps the controllers and gets them working. The Eagles defense comes up big by stripping Brady in the end zone for a safety that gives the Eagles hope.

    It’s 31-15 with 3 minutes, 36 seconds to go.

    McNabb goes cold, however, and Alexander goes for the jugular.

    Brady tosses a TD pass with 25 seconds left.

    Alexander: “Thank you, thank you. Hold the applause.”

    The Patriots get it back at the Eagles’ 11 with 3 seconds left.

    Alexander, showing poor sportsmanship, calls a pass play. It’s incomplete.

    Final score: Patriots 38, Eagles 15


The Daily Orange did it, with "Madden 2005" (no console specified) ... Their outcome was 29-21, Pats :

    Originally posted by Pete Freedman
    After a scoreless third quarter, Matt scored on a 5-yard Westbrook run, though I quickly regained the lead when, 46 seconds later, Brady threw a 76-yard pass to Deion Branch for a touchdown. For good measure, I ran Corey Dillon in for a successful two-point conversion.

    When Matt's immediate drive failed after an incomplete pass on a fourth down, he was convinced his fate was sealed.

    "That's it," he sighed, standing up. "I quit."

    I convinced him to keep playing, but it turns out he was right. The score didn't change and the Pats won, 29-21, over the Eagles - a score surprisingly close to the real-life score of 24-21.

    See, I didn't need to watch Super Bowl to tell you who would win the game last night, but I'm glad I did. Those Eagles cheerleaders were hot.


The official site for Nintendo did it, with "Madden 2005" for the GameCube ... Their outcome favored Philly, 19-10 :

    Originally posted by NOA Video Bowl I
    After finally shaking off the haze of the McCartney effect, New England psyched themselves up to score twice in the fourth. "We can do this, people," said Coach "Natedog" to his Patriots. "All we have to do is keep them from tackling us and we're going to win!"

    Once again, the Patriots marched to midfield via Brady's accurate passing. However, the Eagles defense tightened up, as it had done the previous three quarters. The Eagles D deflected three straight Brady passes and forced a punt.

    Now with the ball, the Eagles focused on winding the game clock. After eating two minutes off the clock, Philadelphia decided to go to the air. McNabb rolled right, as he did all game, and hit his receiver for a seven-yard gain. The officials in the replay booth, however, stopped play and decided to take a look at the reception. After further review, they determined the receiver caught the ball out of bounds.

    "At least they got one of them right," said "Natedog."

    Without making any gains on third down, the Eagles decided to kick the ball away. Trying to catch the Patriots off guard, Rufus called for a fake punt, which failed miserably. "Hey, if I can't do stupid things, then I can't be me, and I wouldn't want that, to not be not me," said Coach Rufus. His self-affirmation gave the Patriots great field position, but only 96 seconds remained on the game clock.

    The Patriots decided to take their gift and smash it with a sledgehammer. The Eagles defensive line hit Brady so many times, he started falling down just out of habit. "My field! My beautiful field," cried the head groundskeeper, Soddy Johnson. "I'll never get that quarterback stain out!" Brady threw one final interception to Simoneau to seal victory for the Eagles.

    Donovan McNabb was awarded the NOA Video Bowl MVP honors and Coach Rufus basked in the glory of the win. "Nothin' tastes as sweet as energy drink after it's been soakin' in your clothes!" said Rufus. "Tastes like victory!"

    "I would like to give credit to Rufus," said a somber Coach "Natedog", "but I really don't like him very much. Fact is, we won this game, but it's you folks in the media that keep going around saying that we lost. Why do you always have to focus on the negative? If it wasn't for the media, Paul McCartney, "Groundhog Day" videos and Scooby-Doo and his gang, we would have gotten away with the victory."


The Richmond Times-Dispatch did it, with both "Madden 2005" and "NFL Street 2" (no console specified) with varying results :

    Originally posted by Doug Elfman
    This year, it's my athletic friend, Dave, who visited the Game Dork lab (my living room) to play the Super Bowl. You see, every year, as two real NFL teams prepare to beat the silly out of each other, I get someone to play the Super Bowl via video games.

    The result of this year's matchups on "Madden NFL 2005" and "NFL Street 2" -- are as scientifically significant as the nacho chips and beverages that Dave and I consumed.

    Our laboratory results were mixed. Using "Madden NFL 2005," Dave won twice as Philly (28-21 and 10-7) and once as New England (27-13). But I beat him once in "NFL Street 2," giving New England a 40-20 edge over the Eagles. After Dave left, I played against the computer and won once as Philly (17-9) and once as New England (31-17).

    All this fake football didn't lead to any substantial conclusions about the real Super Bowl because there was no clear-cut killer. Although, in the games that New England won, it beat the pants off Philly.


The York Daily Record did it, with "Madden 2005" for the PS2, and Philly dominated New England 65-20 :

    Originally posted by JEFFREY MARTIN
    The biggest alteration was Owens, who may or may not play in Super Bowl XXXIX. We decided he’d play, but we tweaked his speed from 93 (out of a possible 100) to 90, figuring he’d still be able to fly straight ahead. We also took away 12 points of his agility (94 to 82), because we thought he wouldn’t be able to plant and cut as well as he did before his injury. In addition, we assumed his stamina would be reduced.

    We even tried to fix Freddie Mitchell’s hair, but the mohawk option wasn’t available.

    Maybe next year.

    Anyway, given VGS’s fondness for “Madden” but also taking into consideration that conditioning would be a factor, the unofficial line was set at Eagles by 7.

    Well, it was 35-7 at the half. The final score was 65-20, Eagles.


The Sports Illustrated for Kids site did it, with "Madden 2005" for the X-Box, and the Patriots just squeaked out a victory :

    Originally posted by SI for Kids
    Adam Vinatieri wins the Super Bowl, again! Brady guided the team down the field, and Vinatieri connected from 35 yards out with one second left. Patriots 17, Eagles 14.


The Street & Smith's Sports Annuals did it, with "Madden 2005" for the PS2, and had the Patriots on top 32-22 :

    Originally posted by Jonathan Woog
    The second half was a different story, as Brady methodically led the Patriots down the field to let running back Corey Dillon have the honor of scoring the first touchdown by breaking off a four-yard run to the left side.

    It also seems as if New England’s defense always turns up their play a notch in the second half and it showed, as the Pats held Philadelphia scoreless in the third quarter.

    Owens finally made his presence felt in the fourth quarter, scoring his first of two touchdowns coming off a 90-yard pass from McNabb. Owens scorched the coverage—bum ankle and all—and soared down the field for the touchdown, but it was too late for a miracle comeback. Vinatieri put the game out of reach with three clutch field goals—all from long distance (53, 38 and 38 yards).

    As the seconds wound down, you could be sure that New England’s free safety and Super Bowl MVP Eugene Wilson (seven tackles and two interceptions) showed Eagles WR Mitchell his name one last time.

    For Eagles fans there could only be hope for next year, and for Patriots fans, they could hold up three fingers—for the three Super Bowls their team has won. Now, that’s a dynasty.


The IGN gaming network did it, with both "NFL 2K5" and "Madden 2005" (no consoles specified), and picked the Pats in four separate outcomes :

    Originally posted by Jon Robinson
    ESPN NFL 2K5 (with Owens) - Meanwhile, Rodney Harrison is able to take advantage of a bad throw by McNabb over the middle and takes it back to the house to seal the Patriots victory 31-17

    ESPN NFL 2K5 (without Owens) - Dawkins couldn't stop them every time, and in the end, this game looked like one of those old 49ers/Broncos Super Bowls, with the Patriots coming out on top 42-13.

    Madden NFL 2005 (with Owens) - There was some bad news on the injury front, however, as McNabb hurt his knee in the third quarter and was unable to return, pretty much making the existence of Owens' character a moot point. In the end, it was Patriots 27, Eagles 10.

    Madden NFL 2005 (without Owens) - It was Corey Dillon, though, who made the biggest impact, rushing for 181 yards and two scores, both in the 4th quarter, to give the Patriots a 21-14 win.


The Fort Wayne Inquirer did it with "Action PC Football" for the PC, and had the Eagles coming out on top :

    Originally posted by Dennis McCauley
    I turned to veteran sports game designer Dave Koch, creator of Action PC Football ($49.95, www.dksports.com), the premier statistically oriented PC football simulation on the market.

    At my request, Koch ran 100 simulations of the Super Bowl, and the Eagles won a whopping 67 times by an average score of 27-21.

    But that was with Terrell Owens in the lineup. "What if T.O. can't play?" Patiently, Koch ran another 100 simulations, this time without the star receiver. The results were not quite as gaudy, but the Eagles still managed to come out on top 61 percent of the time, with the average score dipping slightly to 26-21.

    But hey, a real Super Bowl result like that will have fans dancing in the streets from Manayunk to Mayfair.

    The really good news is that history is on Action PC Football's side. Koch pointed out that the last time he was asked to conduct a pre-Super Bowl analysis for a media outlet was before the 1997 game. Back then, Action PC correctly foresaw Green Bay's win over New England. Even more impressive was the game's prediction of the exact final score, 35-21.

    Conclusion? Take the Eagles plus the points.


The Earthlink Ultimate Gaming site got real creative, and used several football video games from both the past and present to come up with a winner :

    Originally posted by Robert Workman
    Madden NFL '95 (Electronic Arts/Sega Genesis)- Final score: Eagles: 34, Patriots: 31

    Tecmo Super Bowl (Tecmo/NES)- Final score: Eagles: 35, Patriots: 7

    Tecmo Super Bowl III: Final Edition (Tecmo/SNES)- Final score: Eagles: 15, Patriots: 37

    NFL Blitz (MIdway/Nintendo 64)-Final score: Eagles: 21, Patriots: 34

    NFL Street 2 (EA Sports Big/Xbox)- Final score: Eagles: 19, Patriots: 36

    NFL Gameday (Sony/PlayStation)- Final score: Eagles: 14, Patriots: 3

    Madden NFL '98 (Electronic Arts/Sega Saturn)- Final score: Eagles: 7, Patriots: 21

    NFL Primetime Football '97 Featuring Deion Sanders (Sega/Genesis)- Final score: Eagles: 16, Patriots: 13

    Sega Sports NFL 2K2 (Sega/Dreamcast)- Final score: Eagles: 27, Patriots: 3

    ESPN NFL 2K5 (Sega/Xbox)- Final score: Eagles: 23, Patriots: 34

    Madden NFL 2005 (EA Sports/Xbox)- Final score: Eagles: 48, Patriots: 50

    So, in these virtual match-ups, New England has a slight lead, 6-5. And, actually, that's how my final prediction would be also, as I feel the game will be a close one made up of strong offense and defense. Brady is a superb quarterback and he's got a rock solid team to back him up, but the Eagles shouldn't be underestimated, as they have numerous players ready to win it all, with or without Terrell Owens. In the end, though, the Patriots will have the final drive to seal the win.
    My final prediction: Eagles: 28, Patriots: 31

    Let the good times roll.


The Winnipeg Sun did it with "Madden 2005" for the X-Box ... Remarkably, they got the score exactly right :

    Originally posted by STEVE TILLEY, Sun Media
    Brady dumps the ball on the next play to stop the clock, setting up for one last gasp. Eight seconds remain when Brady unleashes an artillery shell that hits Branch, who is brought down by defenders just as he thunders into the end zone. My neighbours are awakened by my screams of joyous disbelief.

    FINAL SCORE Pats 24 Eagles 21

    And there you have the difference between video games and reality, folks: If today's real Super Bowl game was this exciting, we might watch it for more than the commercials. And the possibility of catching a glimpse of boobs. Enjoy.



(edited by Alessandro on 7.2.05 1640)



Alessandro Magno (that's "Alexander the Great" to all y'all bitches! Colin Farrell ain't got nuthin' on me!)




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estragand
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.19
In one of those annual Celebrities Pick the Game columns, Dennis Farina DESTROYED:


    DENNIS FARINA, actor, Law & Order, who has picked the past three winners:
    Patriots 24-21. They are very adaptable. They make great adjustments whoever they're playing.


I'm sure the column was reprinted everywhere, but I found it HERE (rockymountainnews.com)

(edited by estragand on 7.2.05 1414)


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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
I'm surprised that I didn't do one yet, nor JJD (to my knowledge. I'll have to fire up my Madden 2005 and give a best 2 outta 3.




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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.94
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    I'm surprised that I didn't do one yet, nor JJD (to my knowledge. I'll have to fire up my Madden 2005 and give a best 2 outta 3.


Well, I already knew who was winning, unlike a potential NCAA playoff. :)



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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
Thanks for a great season, Pick of the Week fans...see you next year at Planet Magic in Denmark, WI!

    Originally posted by Alessandro
    The Earthlink Ultimate Gaming site got real creative, and used several football video games from both the past and present to come up with a winner :

      Originally posted by Robert Workman

      Tecmo Super Bowl (Tecmo/NES)- Final score: Eagles: 35, Patriots: 7


    Holy crap! I had just mentioned to my Pats fan buddy a few hours before the game that I should do a Tecmo Super Bowl simulation. C'mon, there's not that much difference between Tom Brady and Steve Grogan; Irving Fryar and Deion Branch; Donovan McNabb and QB Eagles (must've not had the NFLPA rights to "Randall Cunningham"...)



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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.19
The Inquirer also consulted a non-video-game computer simulation:

http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/10811662.htm


    It's going to be a sad day in Philly if Dave Holt's numbers pan out.

    Holt, a computer programmer from Chattanooga, Tenn., has predicted 13 of the last 17 Super Bowl winners.

    And this year?

    Sorry, Birds fans. The Patriots have the edge - with or without Terrell Owens in the game - and should win, 31-24.

    How does this work? Holt and colleagues Alan Stephenson and Steve Olson just finished running a 20,000-game simulation after plugging Eagles and Patriots statistics into their program. When all the games are done, a representative game is spit out. That game had the Birds on the short end.




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Who would you put as QB? Kyle Orton? Bernard Berrian or Rasheed Davis. Garrett Wolfe. Anyone. I think the idea would be to throw something totally nuts out there and see how the defense handles it.
Related threads: Super Bowl Commercials Post-mortem Thread - Who wins the Super Bowl? (Winner and Score only!) - Your OFFICIAL Super Bowl XXXIX Thread! - More...
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