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23.7.14 1033
The W - Pro Wrestling - raw rating still in the crapper
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kokolums2
Bauerwurst








Since: 10.6.02

Since last post: 3416 days
Last activity: 3416 days
#1 Posted on
the good news: Raw rating is at 4.0, up out of the 3s.

the bad news:

Technically the ratings are still in a bear market. Its setting lower highs and lower lows. The last dip was from the 5s to 4.4. From there it bounced up to 5.3 and 5.4. 4.4 was the new support having been tested twice, 2/11 and 4/29, and holding.

However, on 5/13 it shattered support and never looked back. It dropped to 3.9 that day. This made 4.4 a significant overhead resistance. It made a rally on 6/10 to 4.2, but failed to break the 4.4 and fell back into the 3.s On 7/22 it made another attempt but failed by only reaching 4.3. The numbers once again fell into the 3s.

All of this makes 4.4 a very important number. The rating must get to 4.5 or better to have anything positive to say.

On the flip side, there is a new floor at 3.7. It headfaked that once at 3.6 on 7/1. But its drawn 3.7 six times this summer, making that a significant number to the downside.

3.7 and 4.4 is the range we're in now. The latest number, a 4.0 would represent the LOWER "high", lower than the 4.3 high on 7/22 and the lowest high in YEARS. Lower highs and lower lows. Bear market all the way.

-----

EDIT:

I'd like to add that the current chart pattern is one of a descending triangle. This is a bearish formation. Once it completes, the breakout is to the downside. You subtract the floor from the initial peak to find the downside target. That peak was at 4.8 with the floor at 3.7. That comes out to -1.1. The downside breakout target is therefore 2.6, scheduled for sometime this fall.

(edited by kokolums2 on 21.8.02 1608)
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Rad T
Cotto








Since: 19.6.02
From: Pittsburgh

Since last post: 4229 days
Last activity: 4229 days
#2 Posted on
Any improvement is always good. They're not going to jump back up to 5.0 in a week.

-Rad T
Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 213 days
Last activity: 184 days
#3 Posted on

    Originally posted by Rad T
    Any improvement is always good. They're not going to jump back up to 5.0 in a week.

    -Rad T



True. RAW is getting better. Ratings are getting better. It takes about 3 months of solidly good programming to repair any gaps in the ratings. Every show [wrestling and non] has to do this to build a fanbase. RAW has a huge fanbase. They just need to get us all watching again.



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"Smile." Maguire (Jude Law), Road to Perdition

"You can't fight in here, this is the War Room!" The President (Peter Sellers), Dr. Strangelove or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love the Bomb
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 14 hours
#4 Posted on
The ratings won't shoot through the roof, especially with Rock/HHH Part 14,413,415,311. I think the WWE should see this as a huge moral victory. They still pulled a higher rating despite preseason football and I totally expected the rating to hit the toilet when Fozzy came on. They proved me wrong.



"That's right! You suckas better FIND somewhere to run! 'cause it's me - Booker T - not only am I the Scorpion King, but I'm the five-time WCW Champion - and I got a sword, too! Now can U dig THAT - SUCKAAAAAS"
-Booker T, Hollywood's next big superstar!

And that's the bottom line, because it's false! It's DAMN false!
kokolums2
Bauerwurst








Since: 10.6.02

Since last post: 3416 days
Last activity: 3416 days
#5 Posted on
TA is a stock market tool, but it was developed to interpret crowd behavior. Ratings are a form of crowd behavior just like the stock market. So its interesting to look at here.

In the case for ratings, I would say that the peaks of 4.3, 4.2, and this latest one at 4.0 might represent casual fans occasionally tuning back in to see what's going on. If that's the case, RAW was given another test this past monday and from the reaction here they may have failed.
The Vile One
Chourico








Since: 3.1.02

Since last post: 4353 days
Last activity: 4230 days
#6 Posted on
Hey guys, the ratings went UP and the show sucked! Does that show anything? Hmm. I supsect the ratings will go up more on Monday post-Summerslam. Just a prediction.




"It is a strange fate that we suffer so much fear and doubt over so small a thing...such a little thing."
-Boromir
Net Hack Slasher
Banger








Since: 6.1.02
From: Outer reaches of your mind

Since last post: 3497 days
Last activity: 1917 days
#7 Posted on
A 0.1 increase. You hyped the biggest buh gawd main-event with two of your buh gawd biggest names for the 4,999 millionth time for a 0.1 increase. Saying that thank god for degrading women because we all know smut = ratings all 0.1 of them. Hope it was worth pushing Trish's character back a year an a half.

Raw has been increasing well since early July. The 0.1 is just going along with the course of good TV including real women matches (but I digress).

I personally wonder if a bad show like this has more effect on the Ratings in weeks coming up. And in this case PPV. I really don't see anything that made someone on the fence to go out and buy it. Most people that said they'd buy it PPV made up there minds before the show, while most on the fence are still saying "day time decision" or in my case not at all... I think it would be interesting that a show that was as bad and insulting (non-finish main event, etc. etc.) would have more of negative an effect in the weeks to come.







(edited by Net Hack Slasher on 22.8.02 0321)

Taking a break from WWE TV since Aug. 19 11:10pm
kokolums2
Bauerwurst








Since: 10.6.02

Since last post: 3416 days
Last activity: 3416 days
#8 Posted on
There is no uptrend in the ratings. They must score at least 4.5 to say that. 4.0 is the worst thing that could happen. Its a lower high.
humanmeal
Mettwurst








Since: 17.3.02
From: East Bay Area, California

Since last post: 4054 days
Last activity: 3330 days
#9 Posted on
Got perhaps a three-month, six-month, and one year moving average for us? Despite the comment below, this is interesting to me. Any SUSTAINED improvement is good; a one- or two-week uptick has all kinds of potential negatives.

I know the numbers themselves aren't actually 'doing' anything, like 'interacting' or 'enjoying,' but I think we're better off thinking of TA as straight statistical manipulation, rather than boosting its status from one crowd study data presentation technique among many to a Mr. Fix-All sociological guru's weapon.



Unemployment isn't just for philosophy majors anymore. Useful people are also starting to suffer. -Kent Brockman

I'm gone for a week and you're screwing a NUN?!?
DrOp
Frankfurter








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2143 days
Last activity: 1009 days
#10 Posted on
It's also important to look at the quarter-hour breakdowns. No matter the final rating, if a show has gains in viewership thorughout the broadcast, it is seen as a good thing.

For example:

3.4, 3.5, 3.5, 3.9, 3.7, 3.8, 4.0, 4.1, 4.3(overrun)

is uaually seen as better than

4.0, 3.9, 3.5, 3.2, 3.3, 3.5, 3.6, 3.7, 4.0 (overrun)

It is my understanding that a consistent dramatic fall in quarter hour ratings not attributable to unusually timed ad-breaks can be a signal that an idea/wrestler, feud, whatever isn't catching on and usually leads to changes in direction.

4.0 isn't what they know they can do in different circumstances, but it's still better than the ratings of 95% of cable programming.



Move Along. There's Nothing to See Here.

...And Marking Out
Slashwrestling.com
skorpio17
Morcilla








Since: 11.7.02
From: New Jersey

Since last post: 2317 days
Last activity: 2317 days
#11 Posted on

    Originally posted by DrOp
    It's also important to look at the quarter-hour breakdowns. No matter the final rating, if a show has gains in viewership thorughout the broadcast, it is seen as a good thing.


I'd hate to jump on DrOp, but I don't see quarter hour ratings as that significant. The final quarter and the overrun are always going to get better ratings than the rest of the show. They have ever since I've looked at the ratings. The reason is that they backload the show by putting the main event at the end. They also try to put a big match at the midway mark from 9:58 - 10:02 to prevent people from switching channels.





-Brian Popkin
mountinman44
Sujuk








Since: 8.5.02
From: San Diego, CA

Since last post: 1159 days
Last activity: 1005 days
Y!:
#12 Posted on
It's not like the WWF is drawing Nitro numbers here. I would start panicking if they were consistently below 3, like the last year of Nitro.



Rest in Peace, Chick.
DrOp
Frankfurter








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 2143 days
Last activity: 1009 days
#13 Posted on

    Originally posted by skorpio17

      Originally posted by DrOp
      It's also important to look at the quarter-hour breakdowns. No matter the final rating, if a show has gains in viewership thorughout the broadcast, it is seen as a good thing.


    I'd hate to jump on DrOp, but I don't see quarter hour ratings as that significant. The final quarter and the overrun are always going to get better ratings than the rest of the show. They have ever since I've looked at the ratings. The reason is that they backload the show by putting the main event at the end. They also try to put a big match at the midway mark from 9:58 - 10:02 to prevent people from switching channels.




Don't think of it as jumping on me. Think of it as having a long distance discussion on a messge board.
I agree with what you said about the final quarter/overrun hour rating being higher. It also can artifically inflate the overall rating as it is not always a full quarter hour. 7 minutes does not equal .25. The Fed teaches us to not care THAT much until 9:56 and 10:57 EST on most Monday nights.

If they were wise (and when the show is *can't miss*) other important and exciting things happen at unusual times during the show and without all those pointless MOMENTS AGO rewinds right after the damn thing happened. In this sense, ad breaks in the middle of matches are very old school and tend to make you sit through the commercial more often than not. Nitro tried this with "oh, LOOK< I'm starting the show in the middle of something!" but it didn't work as well.

I think .25 hour ratings have some merit in that the Fed has shown in the past that if a particular .25 hour does not do well, they will not place anything prominent there. Remeber when we used to get all those Road Dogg singles matches in the .25 hour right before the ad break before the main event?



Move Along. There's Nothing to See Here.

...And Marking Out
Slashwrestling.com
Scorpio
Boudin rouge








Since: 18.2.02
From: Laurel, MD, USA

Since last post: 3772 days
Last activity: 3723 days
#14 Posted on

    Originally posted by kokolums2
    TA is a stock market tool, but it was developed to interpret crowd behavior. Ratings are a form of crowd behavior just like the stock market. So its interesting to look at here.


Agreed, thanks for taking the time to do the paperwork.



PMMJ

"Nothing remains interesting where anything may happen." -H.G. Wells

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I'm guessing it has something to do with the TBS timeslot and the Georgia Territory.
- redsoxnation, VKM/Crockett question (2004)
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