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28.11.14 0406
The W - Pro Wrestling - Ratings: looks like my TA worked!
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kokolums2
Bauerwurst








Since: 10.6.02

Since last post: 3544 days
Last activity: 3544 days
#1 Posted on
A few months ago, I posted that you might be able to apply technical anaylsis (TA) that is used for the stock market to television ratings. TA is all about the patterns of human behavior.

To make a chart of RAW ratings, imagine each show is equivalent to one trading day on a daily stock chart. The value of the show is its rating. Closing price is overall rating.

RAWs rating had a pattern. It was a "descending triangle". This is a bearish formation. The formation starts with RAWs rating collapsing from 4.6 and finding support at 3.7, where it bounced off of several times, each time getting a weaker and weaker bounce. First bounce into the mid 4s. Last bounce was only to 4.0. The move from 4.6 to 3.7 is 0.9 points. The pattern tells you that, eventually, this rating WILL break 3.7 to the downside. According to TA guidelines, the target rating once support (3.7) fails is found by measuring the fall that marked the start of the formation (4.6-3.7=0.9) and then subtracting that number from support.

The target rating would then be 3.7-0.9=2.8. With the 3.1 rating this week, we're almost there! We're close enough to already call this application a successful one! TA works for ratings in this case!

Note once the pattern completes, it doesn't tell us anything about future rating action. It can go up, down, or roll around at 2.8 for a while. All you can do is look for the next pattern. Perhaps applying fibonacci retracements would be the first thing to try, in case the rating tries to consolidate its losses a little.

(edited by kokolums2 on 12.11.02 1811)
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fuelinjected
Banger








Since: 12.10.02
From: Canada

Since last post: 3298 days
Last activity: 3298 days
#2 Posted on
Somebody's phone in Bexar County, Texas will be ringing shortly.

I dunno what they expected, how can people get behind a show where anyone they get behind (Booker, RVD, Jericho, Hardy) all get fed to the not over World Champion? When the show's not based around him, its based around his crippled buddy who never was a draw when he was great, let alone five years later when he's crippled.
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 25 days
Last activity: 1 day
AIM:  
#3 Posted on
All I'll say is if these were the ratings for a show that Jericho or RVD or Booker were the champ on, people would be demanding they be removed and a "real main event talent" be given the belt and the headlining role. But since HHH is really really muscular and has "credibility" I guess those rules don't apply to him.



Who's always messing up Homestar's plans? The Cheat! The Cheat


Immortality
Austin Bradshaw vs NWO 59
Cotto








Since: 26.6.02

Since last post: 3741 days
Last activity: 3740 days
#4 Posted on
Wow, that Katie Vick sure helped the ratings huh?

Anyways, I think the WWE might have, MIGHT have hit the point of no return(ratings wise). Arguably, Wcw's point of no return was with the Hogan "finger" victory over Nash. WWE's might be with the Katie Vick debacle.

Welp, here comes Goldberg...





Flair: "Tonight, it's gonna be Austin, Bradshaw, taking on the NWO!

(Next Monday...)

Flair: I'm not trying to screw you Austin. Tonight, to show that I'm legit, I'll referre your match tonight when you and bradshaw take on the n..w..o!

(Next monday...)

Flair: You thought that was funny Austin? No one screws with the nature boy! tonight, it's gonna be you and bradshaw taking on X-pac and Big Show!

(Next Monday...)

Flair:That's it, you have pissed of the nature boy WHOOO for the very last time Austin!! Tonight I throwing your ass in a special tag match against the NWO. And your partner is gonna be.........Bradshaw!
Gavintzu
Summer sausage








Since: 2.1.02
From: Calgary ... Alberta Canada

Since last post: 2902 days
Last activity: 2902 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
kokolums2, your post is an example of exactly why Wienerville is by far the best 'rasslin forum on the net, bar none. Most days there is at least one post that is better than anything the "pros" at the big websites publish. Tremendous.

I wonder if anyone at the WWE has done the same math? That would explain the despiration the Katie Vick storyline revealed. Vinnie Mac knows that 2.8 is looming, and he is willing to try anything to ward it off. In vain, it appears.






I don't take clothes that are hand-me-downs.
I don't smile 'cause I wear a frown.
Once I get started you can't hold me down.
Once I get going then I go to town.
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 1 hour
Last activity: 41 min.
#6 Posted on
Anybody want to bet BOOKER gets all the blame?




"See Nash, you can wear any Halloween costume you want to, but you know and I know that you're only half the man that I am - and I have half the brain that you do."

Ah, I miss Sid. So much endless material.
DarrylTheHitman
Potato korv








Since: 21.9.02
From: Kitimat, British Columbia, Canada

Since last post: 3316 days
Last activity: 2934 days
#7 Posted on
KK2, maybe you should be on CNN MoneyLine? I didn't really understand what you wrote but it was certainly well-written.



dMp
Banger








Since: 4.1.02
From: The Hague, Netherlands (Europe)

Since last post: 12 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#8 Posted on
I hope you are proud..

All I think when I see these ratings is 'I hope they can fix it, because this sucks!' and not 'eureka, i predicted things right! i rule!'



Net Hack Slasher
Banger








Since: 6.1.02
From: Outer reaches of your mind

Since last post: 3625 days
Last activity: 2045 days
#9 Posted on
3.1 God that is scary, and very depressing. Last few weeks I thougth they were going in a better direction overall How did it fall so much.

I don't know what to say. This company needs a whole new different mind set. Enough with the legends or the quick fix. Give the main title on someone new I DON'T CARE who. But enough with Triple H on top people in general are rejecting him. How much damn proof do you need... Again the first hour had a stronger rating then the second hour. THAT'S INSANE!



IF ANYONE KNOWS WHEN THE DEADLINE OF THE RSPW AWARDS PLEASE LEAVE ME A PRIVATE MESSAGE. Seriously
THEMIXXER
Bauerwurst








Since: 7.10.02
From: Parts Unknown

Since last post: 4199 days
Last activity: 4199 days
#10 Posted on

    Originally posted by Net Hack Slasher
    ...This company needs a whole new different mind set. Enough with the legends or the quick fix. Give the main title on someone new I DON'T CARE who...

    DAMN RIGHT...THAT is what is needed, not bringing back old names..



redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 515 days
Last activity: 515 days
#11 Posted on
The absolute floor is 1.7 from the good old 'I Lost My Smile Days.' Is it possible to turn it around, yes, but in order to do that, Vince has to do what he did at that time, which was admit that he wasn't perfect, and seek input from others on how to help change the direction of the company (When I say others, I mean wrestlers who are not banging his daughter, or have blown out there quad walking across the ring after being out a year, or have lost there smile). It is funny though when you look at it: When he pushed the Clique in the mid 90's he almost went out of business. When he pushed guys who were not in the clique, he became a billionaire. So, naturally, he brings back the Clique, and everything falls apart again. Must just be a coincidence.



I want you to know, I agree with everything I've just said.
mountinman44
Sujuk








Since: 8.5.02
From: San Diego, CA

Since last post: 1287 days
Last activity: 1133 days
Y!:
#12 Posted on

    Originally posted by Net Hack Slasher
    3.1 God that is scary, and very depressing. Last few weeks I thougth they were going in a better direction overall How did it fall so much.

    I don't know what to say. This company needs a whole new different mind set. Enough with the legends or the quick fix. Give the main title on someone new I DON'T CARE who. But enough with Triple H on top people in general are rejecting him. How much damn proof do you need... Again the first hour had a stronger rating then the second hour. THAT'S INSANE!



It's sad. Sub-3's are on the horizon if Vince doesn't change things up. The guy that's popping his daughter is not "the best". He's not drawing. The fans are leaving in droves. Personally, I turned teh show off the second HBK came out for his promo because I knew Vince's son-in-law would ruin the whole damn thing. HHH is wrestling's version of L-tryptophan.
Darkened upper decks in arenas. Low turnout at house shows. Does any of this sound familiar?



"Don't feel bad. I've been wrestling wolves since you were on your mother's teet!" -- Groundskeeper Willie
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 515 days
Last activity: 515 days
#13 Posted on

    Originally posted by mountinman44

      Originally posted by Net Hack Slasher
      3.1 God that is scary, and very depressing. Last few weeks I thougth they were going in a better direction overall How did it fall so much.

      I don't know what to say. This company needs a whole new different mind set. Enough with the legends or the quick fix. Give the main title on someone new I DON'T CARE who. But enough with Triple H on top people in general are rejecting him. How much damn proof do you need... Again the first hour had a stronger rating then the second hour. THAT'S INSANE!



    It's sad. Sub-3's are on the horizon if Vince doesn't change things up. The guy that's popping his daughter is not "the best". He's not drawing. The fans are leaving in droves. Personally, I turned teh show off the second HBK came out for his promo because I knew Vince's son-in-law would ruin the whole damn thing. HHH is wrestling's version of L-tryptophan.
    Darkened upper decks in arenas. Low turnout at house shows. Does any of this sound familiar?






Sounds like the Scott Steiner WCW World Title reign where world title matches were drawing sub 2 ratings. Oh well, at least they don't have to worry about Scott driving ratings even lower. Oh wait, nevermind.



I want you to know, I agree with everything I've just said.
humanmeal
Mettwurst








Since: 17.3.02
From: East Bay Area, California

Since last post: 4182 days
Last activity: 3458 days
#14 Posted on
This thread has already id'd the two ways it can go from here, but I'll make it explicit. It seems to me that either Raw will develop like Smackdown, bouncing off 2.8 back into modestly okay times; or it really will plunge to the 1.7 1994-1996 disaster level mentioned above. I think the former is more likely, but the latter is more possible every month. E.g., how many NEW youngsters has the WWE turned into fans since the WCW folded?

What we need at this point is someone to deliver to the kokomo dude ratings for that era, so he can analyze whether that was a true floor or just what kinda pattern a real dive to the bottom of the sea would subsequently take.

Personally, my OWN months-long prediction of a shareholder suit has yet to come true. I'm REALLY starting to believe that this closely held 'public' corporation is even more owned by McMahons and cronies (through shills, as give backs and 'security' for other loans, etc.) than we've been led to believe. Could it be that the major institutional investor is so weak now that it cannot afford to call attention to the destruction of this property it's invested in? Who took these assholes public, anyway? CFSB? Andersen? Smith, Barney?



M. Cole: Oh no, what's Angle going to do with that chair. Tazz: Well, I think he wants to, you know, HIT HIM with it.

"We're pretty sure we know how the universe started, but we don't know what some of our own internal organs are for. Bet few intelligent species have hit THAT exacta!"
kokolums2
Bauerwurst








Since: 10.6.02

Since last post: 3544 days
Last activity: 3544 days
#15 Posted on
Thanks for the compliments, guys. Yeah, its pretty depressing to look at this.

As I've said, I don't think pro-wrestling has an eternal spot in the entertainment landscape. I just need to point to the ORIGINAL saturday-morning kiddie lineup that featured a lot of campy affair like Sid and Marty Kroftt. Dr. Shrinker, Wonder Bug, Jason of Star Command, Isis, Land of the Lost. All of them vanished to be replaced by cartoons in the early-80s once the Smurfs made it big.

To me, pro-wrestling is competing primarily with sitcoms and dramas, not sporting events. It needs to get better writing. Just like a tv show or a movie, this is the best route to success. The old fundamentals don't go away. The formula is timeless. You need to have opposing charismatic and credible forces. Build up to the final battle where your hero either succeeds or fails.

In the end, the fans are drawn to it because they believe they are watching to titans go at it. Resolve the storyline with as little damage to the participants crediblity as possible.

Why is Tiger Woods so popular? Because he dominates! What golf needs is to find a worthy opponent for him. THAT would be the ultimate draw. That's what you shoot for when you are writing a script.

When I look at WWE, I don't see this. I see a lot of win-trading. One guys gets his butt kicked the week before the PPV, and on the PPV he gets his win back. That gives the impression everyone is .500. What fun would it be to see Tiger Woods just be average? When I look at Brock, I see a guy who doesn't have the charisma to be pushed like this. He's like Glacier when he first appeared. I also see a guy that they put in spots to be made to look weak. He gets beat up by the girly Hardys. Taker launches him thru the set at the end of the last PPV. That stuff hurts his credibility, even if he doesn't lose the match. Makes him not compelling.

When wrestling was HOT a few years ago, both feds were booking according to these guidelines.

WCW had the nWo as an unstoppable force, flexing their power over the fed in new and creative ways. They always kept getting the upper hand. And they were charismatic. They were something special. Like a Tiger Woods. Then they did the right thing - they gave them a worthy opponent in Sting. This Sting was a brilliant creation. He also was portrayed as a fearsome force. They kept teasing the ultimate matchup between the two forces, stirring the crowd into a frenzy, but never giving the fans what they wanted until it was time.

What WCW did afterwards was step away from this formula and thus began the decline.

The WWE meanwhile also gave us an seemingly out-of-control unstoppable force in SCSA. He stormed thru the fed and took the title from HBK. He had charisma. He had credibility. Again, something special for the fans to sink their teeth into. All he needed was that worthy opponent. And it came with VKM and the Rock. Eventually, Rock's own quest to win his first face title from a HHH that was given heavy support that met with some of the best ratings.

Where are we now? Title switches every couple of PPVs? Characters with either no charisma, no momentum, or neither? Where is WWE going? Parity may be the answer in the NFL, but not here. That parity is observed over the course of several years, anyway. WWEs parity is like everyone finishing within a game of .500 every year.

(edited by kokolums2 on 14.11.02 1125)
fuelinjected
Banger








Since: 12.10.02
From: Canada

Since last post: 3298 days
Last activity: 3298 days
#16 Posted on
I don't think wrestling is competing with anything on television but itself.

The wrestling, the core reason that people watch WRESTLING, has been strenghtened and made important on Smackdown. The show is stable and consistant. Give it a real hot program on top like Brock-Austin and it's ready to make a good rise in the ratings and do good house show business.

RAW is so inconsistant and weak that fans have been conditioned not to get behind anything.

The WWE is hurt more then I think any of us can even imagine by their own mistakes. They've fumbled the ball on so many can't miss angles over the past two years that casual & semi-hardcore fans have simply lost interest. The viewer loyalty has been destroyed.
DarrylTheHitman
Potato korv








Since: 21.9.02
From: Kitimat, British Columbia, Canada

Since last post: 3316 days
Last activity: 2934 days
#17 Posted on
true, people have no faith they'll get the storylines right anymore. They could bring in Austin, Goldberg, Sting, Steiner, Hogan, and Savage tomorrow and it wouldn't matter because within 3 months or less they'd have "settled in" to everyone else's level. They need to have actual main-eventers not a bunch of glorified upper-midcarders.



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If you listened to Bret on WOL tonight, you know that he talked to Vince about putting out a DVD with Bret's great matches on it. So which ones would you include in a dream DVD? I'd have: Bret vs. Ric Flair (Iron Man Match) Bret vs. Mr.
- Michrome, Bret DVD (2003)
The W - Pro Wrestling - Ratings: looks like my TA worked!Register and log in to post!

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