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The W - Baseball - Pre Spring Training National League Predictions (Page 2)
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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#21 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.44
    Originally posted by geemoney
    They lose Looper/Urbina and pick up Benitez.








You just named the key reason alot of people are picking against them. Not losing Looper/Urbina per se, but the fact that Benitez is a choke artist supreme. Big spot, Benitez implodes and the team hits the skids.

(edited by redsoxnation on 27.2.04 1804)


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geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
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#22 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
      Originally posted by geemoney
      They lose Looper/Urbina and pick up Benitez.








    You just named the key reason alot of people are picking against them. Not losing Looper/Urbina per se, but the fact that Benitez is a choke artist supreme. Big spot, Benitez implodes and the team hits the skids.

    (edited by redsoxnation on 27.2.04 1804)

I think he was a product of his envrionment. Some guys aren't suited to play in places like NYC, where every pitch is scrutinized. The media/fans in Florida are pretty apathetic overall, so I think he can succeed in a low-pressure environment. I think he's still a top-notch closer, and certainly an improvement over Looper.



Marlins S.T. Breakdown, RAW, idiot friends and More!: http://parksg.blogspot.com
Whitebacon
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Since: 12.1.02
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#23 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.59
He tanked pretty good in Seattle, and wasn't even given a chance to close there when Kaz Sasaki got hurt.





Edit: I think its naptime.

(edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1525)




In the context of baseball, the use of drugs hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, the use of alcohol hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, womanizing hurts whom? Maybe the wife of the player? In the context of baseball, felonies are crimes against society, not against baseball. In the context of baseball, gambling is the only crime against baseball.

Gambling, in the context of baseball, is a capital offense and Rose has richly earned-- hell, he agreed to-- his death sentence. Let him hang.

Bob Kohm, co-owner of Rotojunkies.com (rotojunkies.com) , and a large market kind of guy.
geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
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#24 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
    Originally posted by Whitebacon
    He tanked pretty good in Seattle, and wasn't even given a chance to close there when Kaz Sasaki got hurt.





    Edit: I think its naptime.

    (edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1525)

He had a 3.14 ERA in Seattle in 15 games. When did he tank?



Marlins S.T. Breakdown, RAW, idiot friends and More!: http://parksg.blogspot.com
redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#25 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.44
    Originally posted by geemoney
      Originally posted by Whitebacon
      He tanked pretty good in Seattle, and wasn't even given a chance to close there when Kaz Sasaki got hurt.





      Edit: I think its naptime.

      (edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1525)

    He had a 3.14 ERA in Seattle in 15 games. When did he tank?






ERA with a reliever can be overrated, as they can have a 0.00 ERA and 3 earned runs score while they are in the game. And, it wasn't just in New York where he choked. Baltimore still hasn't recovered from some of the big spot clunkers he threw in the mid 90's. Also, what team turns Armando into their bitch consistently: Atlanta.



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Whitebacon
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Since: 12.1.02
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#26 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.59
Maybe tank is a bit too strong, but he allowed nearly a runner and a half per inning pitched (not good) and Seattle, and for being a "proven closer" was not given much of a chance to do what he'd been doing for years. His first game in an M's uni was August eighth, Shigetoshi Hasegawa only had eight saves, Benitez had 21 with the Mets to that point, plus 176 in the nine years before that, with what looks to be five full years of closing experience behind him. Hasegawa had a grand total of seventeen before last season, and has thirty-three career saves now. Maybe he didn't completely implode as he had in Baltimore, and with the Mets, but he managed to get chased out of Yankee Stadium, and inspired enough faith in Seattle to get five holds and one save opportunity (which he blew). I know I wouldn't want him on the mound in a pressure packed situation late in the season.

Edit: He also probably got bailed out by Seattle's stellar defense.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/b/benitar01.shtml
http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/ mlbpa/players/5290/gamelog
http://bigleaguers.yahoo.com/mlb/players/ 5747

(edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1604)




In the context of baseball, the use of drugs hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, the use of alcohol hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, womanizing hurts whom? Maybe the wife of the player? In the context of baseball, felonies are crimes against society, not against baseball. In the context of baseball, gambling is the only crime against baseball.

Gambling, in the context of baseball, is a capital offense and Rose has richly earned-- hell, he agreed to-- his death sentence. Let him hang.

Bob Kohm, co-owner of Rotojunkies.com (rotojunkies.com) , and a large market kind of guy.
geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
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#27 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
I still think he's one of the better closers in the N.L. You've got Gagne, Smoltz, Wagner in the first tier, and I'd say Benitez is pretty close to the top of the second tier. I'm more worried about the rest of the bullpen to be honest. I think Benitez can get it done.



Marlins S.T. Breakdown, RAW, idiot friends and More!: http://parksg.blogspot.com
TheCow
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Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

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#28 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
Benitez is a pretty simple case, really. He'll save 35-40 over of the course of the year - and blow somewhere between 4 and 6. So long as you accept that (and the corollary - those games he blows will probably be big games), then you'll be fine with him.
PeterStork
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Since: 25.1.02
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#29 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.46
Astros = overrated. Yeah, the pitching is good, but the Cubs have them beat. I'm not going to raise the same concerns about Pettitte @ Enron Field that a lot of people have, but he's not a god. Clemens is old. Their other starters don't match up with Dusty Baker's crew.

Then there's the offense. Berkman is good. Mad crazy skills good. Everyone else: oh my god. Bagwell's, what, 50? His MVP year was TEN YEARS AGO. Biggio is worthless. Kent isn't getting any younger either. The other guys are good filler, but nothing to write home about.

If nothing else, Houston will be in a race this year. They can't win races; they always fold. Whenever they're challenged in September they fold like me with a King/two offsuit. Playoffs: one win in four or five DCS appearances in the Bagwell era.

Cubs in first. Easy. Without injuries, this team is there. Houston in second: their pitching and meager hitting will see them through. The Cardinals will NOT be horrible: some pitching staffs will be beheaded by that lineup, and the pitching isn't THAT bad. But I smell third place.



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#30 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.00
If I had to take off my Black/Gold Pirates sunglasses, I'd feel comfortable with picking the Astros for the Central. Bagwell puts up consistent production numbers and I don't feel he's a stiff. Not sure if Richard Hidalgo's back, but he's been a big part of the team in recent years. Morgans Ensberg's not to shabby at third.. so they really don't need Biggio.

Pettite and Clemens are getting the headlines, but Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller are exceptional starters as well. I really liked Miller's stuff two years ago, and I think he's somewhat overlooked.



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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#31 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.99
    Originally posted by geemoney
      Originally posted by Whitebacon
      He tanked pretty good in Seattle, and wasn't even given a chance to close there when Kaz Sasaki got hurt.





      Edit: I think its naptime.

      (edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1525)

    He had a 3.14 ERA in Seattle in 15 games. When did he tank?


As a Mariners fan let me assure you the Armando Benitez was HORRIBLE, and after his first appearance Melvin was loathe to use him in anything remotely resembling a close game.

EDIT: redsoxnation, your predictions for the AL and NL records added up to 2408 wins and 2452 losses. For shame.

(edited by JayJayDean on 2.3.04 1140)


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geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
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#32 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by geemoney
        Originally posted by Whitebacon
        He tanked pretty good in Seattle, and wasn't even given a chance to close there when Kaz Sasaki got hurt.





        Edit: I think its naptime.

        (edited by Whitebacon on 27.2.04 1525)

      He had a 3.14 ERA in Seattle in 15 games. When did he tank?


    As a Mariners fan let me assure you the Armando Benitez was HORRIBLE, and after his first appearance Melvin was loathe to use him in anything remotely resembling a close game.

    EDIT: redsoxnation, your predictions for the AL and NL records added up to 2408 wins and 2452 losses. For shame.

    (edited by JayJayDean on 2.3.04 1140)

So his horrible-ness showed up in the first game he pitched where he gave up *gasp* one run in one inning!!! My God, send him to AAA!!!

Hell, he had ONE save opportunity the whole time he was in Seattle!!

I'm not trying to be a negative nelly here....my point is, I don't think he'll crash-and-burn in Florida this year.



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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#33 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.99
    Originally posted by geemoney
    Hell, he had ONE save opportunity the whole time he was in Seattle!!


HOW can you argue whether he was good or bad while he was a Mariner? Here is all you need to know (that stats alone won't tell you).

M'S BULLPEN BEFORE NELSON/BENITEZ TRADE:
Closer - Hasegawa
LH Set-up - Rhodes
RH Set-up - Nelson
Long relievers - Mateo, Soriano

M'S BULLPEN AFTER NELSON/BENITEZ TRADE:
Closer - Hasegawa
LH Set-up - Rhodes
RH Set-up - Soriano
Long relievers - Mateo, Benitez (HELL-O!)

If Benitez had looked even REMOTELY reliable he'd have been a useful asset for Melvin down the stretch. Instead he ended up being the 11th man in the bullpen. Melvin wouldn't use him in a close game, and he HARDLY pitched in September. (4.1 IP with a 6.23 ERA in 5 appearances)

The game that ruined Benitez for Melvin was 8/15 vs. Boston, in which Benitez pitched a fine 7th but in the 8th went double, walk, strikeout, walk, walk to make it an 8-5 game, leading Melvin to bring in Shiggy to close out the 8th (which he did) and 9th. Some final scores of games in which Benitez appeared after the Red Sox debacle: 9-1, 7-3, 13-1, 9-3, and five other games that were closer, but no real tight situations.





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geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
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#34 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.19
It sounds like you're arguing that Benitez wasn't good enough to be a closer, while also arguing that he didn't even get a shot. Am I close?

You asked me how I can argue whether he was good or bad as a Mariner, when you yourself said a few posts earlier that he was "horrible."



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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#35 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.99
    Originally posted by geemoney
    It sounds like you're arguing that Benitez wasn't good enough to be a closer, while also arguing that he didn't even get a shot. Am I close?

    You asked me how I can argue whether he was good or bad as a Mariner, when you yourself said a few posts earlier that he was "horrible."


He was brought to Seattle because (the truth is) the Mariners management didn't like some comments Jeff Nelson made about their lack of activity at the trade deadline and (the M's would have you believe) because unlike Nelson, Benitez had experience closing games, giving Melvin more versatility in the 'pen. He wasn't going to be THE closer, because Hasegawa was like 14-for-15 in save situations at that point, but he WAS given a chance to be a VALUABLE PART OF THE BULLPEN. He failed in that role and was relegated to being to mop-up guy instead.

APPEARANCES BY M'S PITCHERS - SEPTEMBER
Soriano - 10
Hasegawa - 9
Rhodes - 8
Mateo - 8
Sasaki - 6
Benitez - 5

Also, there was no "why doesn't Melvin use Benitez more?" vibe at Safeco Field. It was more of a "PLEASE GOD don't put Benitez in" kind of vibe. The guy was just WAY to shaky.



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Firecracker
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Since: 26.6.02
From: Miami, FL

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#36 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.14
    Originally posted by Iago
    I wont write off the Marlins. They are good. But a bit inexperienced.

Yeah, they're young.. but inexperienced? They only won the World Series last year - winning it all has to count for some experience.

I think Benitez will do fine here with the Marlins. Looper and Urbina blew some saves last year... so will Benitez. All closers not named Gagne blow saves. There's no pressure on him though, he'll do fine.

I say the Fish repeat!



Yo, it's me, it's me, it's (points to self) P-A-B!

Marlins are WORLD SERIES CHAMPS!! WOOOO!!!
JoshMann
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Since: 17.11.03
From: Tallahassee, FL

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#37 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.49
I like the optimism, believe me...but there's a few problems:

-Castro at catcher: forget the legal problems, he's not a rookie, but he hasn't ever started, either. They think he'll be good for .250-12-60 and play some solid D, but who knows?

-Armando Benitez: I think it's all been said at this point. Bullpen's a little shakey with Spooneybarger still out and Fox as their one reliable setup guy.

-Heep Sop Choi: Still young, and was playing OK before he went up close with the dirt at Wrigley. So it's subbing upside for a guy who had hit somewhere between 20-30 HRs the last few years. But he has a chance to hit for a better average than Lee, and that would be fine.

-Miguel Cabrera: I love the kid, but they're banking on a guy to be the everyday outfielder when he hasn't done it yet and may or may not have been exposed yet. Just saying.

Mark Fydrich Syndrome: Dontrelle Willis, I'm looking in your general direction.

A.J. Burnett: Anyone who had Jobe Surgery you have to wonder about.

But really, having lived through 1998, I just want Florida to be still in it by August/September. They don't have to repeat, they do'nt even have to go to the playoffs again...just contend, and I'll be happy. I'm not selfish. I just want to get the chance to see them as defending champs in a pennant race.




"America’s top dog is a big, slobbering, barking dog named Josh" [AP]
geemoney
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Since: 26.1.03
From: Naples, FL

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#38 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.20
    Originally posted by Blanket Jackson
    But really, having lived through 1998, I just want Florida to be still in it by August/September. They don't have to repeat, they do'nt even have to go to the playoffs again...just contend, and I'll be happy. I'm not selfish. I just want to get the chance to see them as defending champs in a pennant race.


I tend to feel this way too.

I'm not worried about how Castro will perform- I'm more worried about his legal battle.

Dusty LOVES veterans, which is part of the reason Choi spent a lot of the year at AAA.

I'll say it again- The back of the bullpen doesn't bother me...it's getting through the sixth and seventh that will be tough IMO.

I think Willis WILL slip this year.

It sounds like Burnett is coming along nicely, and I'm not too worried about him.



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Whitebacon
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#39 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.59
    Originally posted by Blanket Jackson
    Bullpen's a little shaky with Spooneybarger still out and Fox as their one reliable setup guy.


When Chad Fox is your one reliable setup man, you know it's a shaky situation.





In the context of baseball, the use of drugs hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, the use of alcohol hurts only the player. In the context of baseball, womanizing hurts whom? Maybe the wife of the player? In the context of baseball, felonies are crimes against society, not against baseball. In the context of baseball, gambling is the only crime against baseball.

Gambling, in the context of baseball, is a capital offense and Rose has richly earned-- hell, he agreed to-- his death sentence. Let him hang.

Bob Kohm, co-owner of Rotojunkies.com (rotojunkies.com) , and a large market kind of guy.
Monte
Mettwurst








Since: 27.3.03
From: Montauk, New York

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#40 Posted on
As for the Marlins I am thoroughly dismissing any ideas of another Cinderella-esque season. They lost the most important thing a team can lose, your leader. Ivan Rodriguez was not only all of their player's "best friend" but he was the spiritual leader day in and day out. I just don't see a quiet guy like Lowell or a head case like Conine stepping up and taking command of the locker room.

As for the Braves I think they lost too much in certain areas to make it another division title, but knowing them I am dirt wrong. Losing Sheffield and Javy is pretty bad, the loss of Castillo is probably not causing many Atlanta fans sleeplessness. I like Marrerro, I don't like JD Drew. The pitching overachieved last year and replacing Maddux, even in his older stage, with Paul Byrd fresh off surgery never sounds so good.

The team you may be overlooking is New York. Say all you want about the age of the pitching staff, but the Mets have put together a team that allows the pitchers to feel comfortable letting the batter put it in play. With Reyes / Matsui up the middle and statistically the best fielding CF Mike Cameron behind them, Leiter, Trachsel, Glavine, Seo and Erickson should see ERA's go down and put outs go up. Cameron, FYI, is a Billy Beane GEM! Too go by Beane's "money ball" strategy Cameron is more impactful in the field than any other player in baseball, terrific pick up. With Cameron in center, pitcher's ERAs are lowered by nearly .5. The season will probably rest on two things, health and health. If Piazza and Floyd can stay healthy for the whole thing (as well as Piazza making at least a smooth transition to first base) you are looking at the story book fundamentally sound small ball team that has won over the last two year. You heard it hear FIRST!



"Keep On Keepin' On." - Joe Dirt
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