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25.10.14 0514
The W - Football - Potential BCS chaos
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TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.74
As far as I can tell, there are two potential "disaster" scenarios for the BCS, in which flaws in its eligibility rules can cause a major headache.

One I brought up before, and I don't think a definitive answer was ever offered. Basically, the scenario is this: the teams ranked No 1 and No 2 in the BCS are from the same conference, and neither is the conference champion. Thus you have three "automatic" spots going to one conference, while rules say no conference can have more than two teams. This scenrio is incredibly unlikely, obviously; I think it's only really possible in the Big 10, where teams don't play every other team in the conference each year.

The other is still unlikely, but much more possible. Look at the current BCS standings:

1. Texas 7-0
2. Alabama 7-0
3. Penn State 8-0
4. Oklahoma 6-1
5. USC 5-1
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Georgia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 7-0
9. Ohio State 7-1
10. Florida 5-1
11. Utah 8-0
12. Boise State 6-0
13. LSU 5-1
14. TCU 7-1
15. Missouri 5-2
16. South Florida 6-1
17. Pitt 5-1
18. Georgia Tech 6-1
19. Tulsa 7-0
20. Ball State 7-0
21. BYU 6-1
22. Northwestern 6-1
23. Kansas 5-2
24. Minnesota 6-1
25. Florida State 5-1


Now, imagine Ohio State gets destroyed by Penn State and South Florida loses to Louisville on Saturday (Pitt is currently the Big East leader). There are four at-large spots in the BCS, and no conference can have more than two teams, so that means, basically, the four at-large spots either go to four different BCS conferences or three BCS conferences and one non-BCS team. In this scenario, There would only be two BCS conferences (Big XII, SEC) with more than two teams eligible for an at-large bid. Now, there are a few reasons why this wouldn't be a problem at this point:

1) There are multiple non-BCS schools in the top 16, so, while the bowls would hate it, Boise State, TCU and Utah would be there to fill the void. However, this likely won't be the case at the end of the season, and it won't be the case every year.

2) The Big XII and SEC schools at the top of the rankings still all have to play each other, so some of them will likely be dropping.

But as it stands, the Pac-10 and the ACC have absolutely no prayer of having teams eligible for at-large bids, so if the non-BCS schools fall, then the Big East, SEC, Big XII and Big 10 all must have second teams eligible, or there is a problem. The Big East and Big 10 are both one collapse away from not being able to provide that team.

(edited by TheBucsFan on 24.10.08 1137)
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wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
It is way, way, way too early for this kind of talk.

Just far too much football left to be played.
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.74
    Originally posted by wmatistic
    It is way, way, way too early for this kind of talk.

    Just far too much football left to be played.


Yeah, I'm not saying it's going to happen this year. I'm just saying that, hypothetically, this type of scenario can play out, and there's nothing in the BCS rules to handle it. I only mention the standings now because they show that the standings could reflect this problem.

If there aren't four BCS conferences with teams high enough to qualify, and no non-BCS teams qualify, then the BCS has big problems. The BCS seems built on the assumption that neither of the two scenarios I described in the first post are possible.

EDIT: Also, I was interested in seeing if there are any other doomsday scenarios for the BCS that others can think of. These are the only two that I can imagine.

(edited by TheBucsFan on 24.10.08 1216)
Texas Kelly
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Since: 3.1.02
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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.27
Ladies and gentlemen, the following public service message is brought to you by your friends from D-Generation X, who would like to remind each and every one of you that if you're not down with that, we've got two words for you...

The BCS addressed your second scenario with the addition of this rule last year:

    Originally posted by BCS by-laws
    If expansion of the pool to 18 teams does not result in 10 teams eligible for selection, then the pool shall be expanded by blocks of 4 teams until 10 eligible teams are available subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15 or lower, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

Basically, if there aren't enough eligible teams, then the cut-off gets pushed down in blocks of four until enough eligible teams are found (translation: they find a sucky #2 major conference team that couldn't bother to reach 18th in the rankings).

EDIT: The BCS is *tough* to project right now. There's still a lot of possible teams out there, though right now here's some generalities:

Texas v. Alabama for the championship and USC v. Penn State in the Rose are clear-cut for the moment. One of the top two losing would put Penn State into the title game and muddle things further. The ACC champion will likely get the #2 team in the Big Ten in the Orange (which has the first pick of at-large teams this year). There will be a mid-major qualifier (Utah, Boise, Tulsa and TCU are all possibilities) that will go to the Fiesta (isn't it odd how the mid-majors always seem to end up there?) to play a Big 12 team (right now, you could flip coins between Oklahoma, OK State and Texas Tech; any one of them could get the nod and there'd be a good reason to do so), while the Sugar will be the #2 SEC team (currently the Florida/Georgia winner) against the Big East champion (Pitt).

We definitely need to let more football be played and revisit the situation in a couple of more weeks.

(edited by Texas Kelly on 24.10.08 0038)


e-mail me at texas (dot) kelly (at) gmailread a bunch of incoherent nonsense
now 52% more incoherent!
smark/net attack Advisory System is Elevatedsmark/net attack Advisory System Status is: Elevated
(Holds; June 18, 2006)
While the switch from Cena to RVD should alleviate some complaints, the inevitability of the belt's return to Cena (note where Summerslam is this year) and the poor initial showing by the new ECW are enough to keep the indicator where it is for now. The pieces are in place, though, especially on RAW, for improvements to be made to the IWC's psyche in the near future.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.56
Isn't the most obvious doomsday scenario the one where, like, every conference champ is unbeaten and yet only two get picked for the title game?
TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.74
    Originally posted by Texas Kelly
    The BCS addressed your second scenario with the addition of this rule last year:

      Originally posted by BCS by-laws
      If expansion of the pool to 18 teams does not result in 10 teams eligible for selection, then the pool shall be expanded by blocks of 4 teams until 10 eligible teams are available subject to the two-team limit noted above and also subject to the following: (1) if any conference has two or more teams in the top 14, then two of those teams must be selected and (2) from the teams ranked 15 or lower, a bowl can select only a team from a conference that has fewer than two teams in the top 14.

    Basically, if there aren't enough eligible teams, then the cut-off gets pushed down in blocks of four until enough eligible teams are found (translation: they find a sucky #2 major conference team that couldn't bother to reach 18th in the rankings).


Ah! Thanks.

    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Isn't the most obvious doomsday scenario the one where, like, every conference champ is unbeaten and yet only two get picked for the title game?


That's a different doomsday. At least in that scenario, no BCS rules are contradicting each other (though, as Texas Kelly pointed out, the rules are not in contradiction in my scenario either).

I guess fans of chaos have to hope for the Big 10 to play out the first theory.

EDIT: I guess a more likely variant on the first scenario is that a conference has three teams in the top 4 of the BCS standings. That really could have happened in 2006, when Wisconsin lost only to Michigan because it didn't play Ohio State that year. Sure, the easy thing is to say the lowest-ranked of the three loses its bid, but the rules don't say that. The rules say all three would have automatic bids.

(edited by TheBucsFan on 24.10.08 1242)
Texas Kelly
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Since: 3.1.02
From: FOREST HILLS CONTROLS THE UNIVERSE

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.27
Ladies and gentlemen, the following public service message is brought to you by your friends from D-Generation X, who would like to remind each and every one of you that if you're not down with that, we've got two words for you...

IMO, the doomsday scenario for the BCS this year would be if enough teams lose for USC to back into the title game. There's no other Pac-10 team even remotely qualified for a major bowl this year (it's pathetic, that conference), so the Rose would have to take someone outside its usual pattern and that would set off all kinds of chaos. USC being massively overrated (as it always is) isn't helping matters much, of course.

I personally think our top three teams are the best in the country (though being an SEC apologist, I would put Alabama #1 and Texas #2), so let's hope they can hold serve and give the BCS the 2004 problem. (If Penn State can get past Ohio State this week, there's no reason they shouldn't be able to go 12-0, for starters.)



e-mail me at texas (dot) kelly (at) gmailread a bunch of incoherent nonsense
now 52% more incoherent!
smark/net attack Advisory System is Elevatedsmark/net attack Advisory System Status is: Elevated
(Holds; June 18, 2006)
While the switch from Cena to RVD should alleviate some complaints, the inevitability of the belt's return to Cena (note where Summerslam is this year) and the poor initial showing by the new ECW are enough to keep the indicator where it is for now. The pieces are in place, though, especially on RAW, for improvements to be made to the IWC's psyche in the near future.
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
I wouldn't worry about USC so much as OU. I mean if Ohio State beats Penn State and Bama loses just once, OU is in position to get that rematch for the BCS title.

As for Penn State vs Ohio State, tough call. Some people are saying don't fall in love with Ohio State they still have problems and haven't beat anyone great. Sure, I agree. But who exactly has Penn State played? I mean it's amazing to me a team can be 8-0, play in a major BCS conference, and yet have zero wins against a quality opponant. Yet people are talking national title?

How about we let them beat someone that matters first? Unfortunately the only team that maybe qualifies on their entire schedule is Ohio State. And that's a big maybe.

I'll say Ohio State wins, just because they always do.

(edited by wmatistic on 24.10.08 0557)
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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Y!:
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.40
    Originally posted by wmatistic
    But who exactly has Penn State played? I mean it's amazing to me a team can be 8-0, play in a major BCS conference, and yet have zero wins against a quality opponant.


Penn State 45, Oregon State 14.
Oregon State 27, USC 21.

I'm not saying Oregon State is GREAT or anything, but they are the only Pac-10 team besides USC that's got any kind of resumé (losing to Utah on the road by 3 isn't that bad) and they control their own destiny in the Pac-8. It's a quality win for the Nittany Lions.

I'm most certainly interested in the one-loss SEC champ/one-loss Big XII champ BCS title game scenario lumped in with an undefeated Penn State/USC Rose Bowl scenario, because if the BCS game was crap (like a turnover-filled "who did less to lose because neither team did enough to win" game) while PSU drubbed USC (who surely everyone would love if they predictably rampaged through the rest of the schedule) you would have a replay of LSU/USC '05. (Or was it '06? I can't keep that stuff straight anymore.)



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

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Psycho Penguin
Liverwurst








Since: 24.6.07
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.48
If the top 2 teams in the country were from the same conference, there's a 99.99999999 percent chance one of them would be the conference champion.

Also, the Rose Bowl didn't have a Pac 10 team one year and that turned out okay. (Texas/Michigan)

(edited by Psycho Penguin on 24.10.08 1056)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/recognition/9471.html
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by wmatistic
      But who exactly has Penn State played? I mean it's amazing to me a team can be 8-0, play in a major BCS conference, and yet have zero wins against a quality opponant.


    Penn State 45, Oregon State 14.
    Oregon State 27, USC 21.

    I'm not saying Oregon State is GREAT or anything, but they are the only Pac-10 team besides USC that's got any kind of resumé (losing to Utah on the road by 3 isn't that bad) and they control their own destiny in the Pac-8. It's a quality win for the Nittany Lions.

    I'm most certainly interested in the one-loss SEC champ/one-loss Big XII champ BCS title game scenario lumped in with an undefeated Penn State/USC Rose Bowl scenario, because if the BCS game was crap (like a turnover-filled "who did less to lose because neither team did enough to win" game) while PSU drubbed USC (who surely everyone would love if they predictably rampaged through the rest of the schedule) you would have a replay of LSU/USC '05. (Or was it '06? I can't keep that stuff straight anymore.)


I did forget that Oregon State game, but it's still not THAT impressive of a win. I just meant that overall Penn State is being talked about like they've already proven they are big time and I haven't seen it yet. They might very well be.
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.79
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by wmatistic
      But who exactly has Penn State played? I mean it's amazing to me a team can be 8-0, play in a major BCS conference, and yet have zero wins against a quality opponant.


    Penn State 45, Oregon State 14.
    Oregon State 27, USC 21.

    I'm not saying Oregon State is GREAT or anything, but they are the only Pac-10 team besides USC that's got any kind of resumé (losing to Utah on the road by 3 isn't that bad) and they control their own destiny in the Pac-8. It's a quality win for the Nittany Lions.

    I'm most certainly interested in the one-loss SEC champ/one-loss Big XII champ BCS title game scenario lumped in with an undefeated Penn State/USC Rose Bowl scenario, because if the BCS game was crap (like a turnover-filled "who did less to lose because neither team did enough to win" game) while PSU drubbed USC (who surely everyone would love if they predictably rampaged through the rest of the schedule) you would have a replay of LSU/USC '05. (Or was it '06? I can't keep that stuff straight anymore.)





2003 LSU/USC/Oklahoma was weird because USC was #1 in the polls, but the computers knocked them down to the point where they were out of the game. That was because Oklahoma was so far ahead before they got destroyed in the Big XII title game that they were safe in their slot. If Penn State were #3 going into the bowls, it would be tough for them to jump a team by knocking off #4/5 while the winner of the BCS game would have knocked off #1/2. Now, if Penn State were unbeaten and either/both the SEC and Big XII Champ had 1 loss, Penn State would be #1 or #2 and in the BCS Game rather than the Rose Bowl.
After Michigan/Florida a few years ago, I can envision scenarios where Oklahoma drops with the human voters behind a 1-loss conference champion in order to prevent the rematch.

(edited by redsoxnation on 24.10.08 1943)
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I just hope Collins is just out for this season, and not permanently. Neck injuries are a scary situation. It's odd, after last year, I'm almost immune to Packer injuries.
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