Well after one game my prediction is already almost certainly shot, thankfully. A draw against Portugal in the next game would almost certainly be enough to get the US through to the knockout rounds, barring a pounding from Germany like what they gave Portugal. Portugal looked terrible, but the US did not look so great either.
Anyway, things look much brighter than I expected. Today really went about as great as it could have for the US. At one point late, when the match was already out of hand, Ronaldo thought Portugal should have had a penalty and got very aggressive with the ref, I thought he might do or say something to get himself sent off. That would be just about the only thing that could have made it better.
GD Germany +4 USA +1 (+2 vs Ghana, +5 vs Portugal) Ghana -1 Portugal -4
There are 9 different results for the 2nd games:
1) USA beats Portugal, Ghana beats Germany
USA 6 pts Germany 3 Ghana 3 Portugal 0
We advance unless Ghana beats Portugal and we lose to Germany and Ghana's GD is better than ours
2) USA loses to Portugal, Ghana beats Germany All teams have 3 points. If we beat Germany, we advance If we lose, we are out If we draw, we are probably out (zero GD or worse, Ghana would have zero GD or better. 2nd tiebreaker is goals scored, so we only advance over Ghana if we had scored more total goals. Portugal would have to beat us by 6 to be considered.
3) USA draws Portugal, Ghana beats Germany USA 4 Germany 3 Ghana 3 Portugal 1
If we beat or draw Germany, we advance If we lose, we advance if Ghana draws Portugal and they only beat Germany by 1 and we have more goals scored. If we lose, we advance if Portugal beats Ghana by 4 goals or less or they win by 5 and we score more goals than them.
4) USA beats Portugal, Germany beats Ghana Germany 6 USA 6 Ghana 0 Portugal 0
We advance. We only capture 1st by beating Germany or we have a draw against them and we beat Portugal by 4 more goals than Germany beats Ghana
5) USA loses to Portugal, Germany beats Ghana Germany 6 USA 3 Portugal 3 Ghana 0
We beat Germany, we advance unless Portugal beats Ghana and both Portugal and Germany have a better GD than us. We draw, we advance unless Portugal beats Ghana
6)USA draws Portugal, Germany beats Ghana Germany 6 USA 4 Portugal 1 Ghana 0
We advance unless Portugal beats Ghana by 6 goals or more
7)USA beats Portugal, Germany draws Ghana USA 6 Germany 4 Ghana 1 Portugal 1
We advance. We take 1st unless Germany beats us, then we take 2nd
8) USA loses to Portugal, Germany draws Ghana Germany 4 USA 3 Portugal 3 Ghana 1
If we lose to Germany, we are out (Portugal win gives them 6 pts, draw 4 pts; Ghana win gives them 4) If we draw Germany, we advance unless Portugal beats Ghana, or Ghana wins and has a better GD than us If we beat Germany, we advance
9) USA draws Portugal, Germany draws Ghana
Germany 4 USA 4 Ghana 1 Portugal 1
If we beat or draw Germany, we advance If we lose to Germany, we advance if Portugal and Ghana draw If we lose to Germany, we advance if Portugal beats Ghana by 4 or less, or Ghana beats Portugal by 1 goal) We advance no matter what if Portugal and Ghana draw
Gutting loss for Australia, that match deserved to be a draw. That was the greatest group stage match I can remember seeing. The Dutch march on, though this game will take the wind out of their sails just a bit. That might be a good thing.
Here is how each region is doing thus far, including the second fixtures for those that have played them:
UEFA (Europe): 22 pts, 14 matches played CONMEBOL (South America): 13 pts, 7 matches played CONCACAF (North America): 10 points, 5 matches played CAF (Africa): 4 points, 5 matches played AFC (Asia): 2 points, 5 matches played OFC (Oceania): No teams in the tournament
Incidentally, I think it sucks that the Oceania winner of qualifying does not go directly to the tournament.
Originally posted by TheBucsFan Incidentally, I think it sucks that the Oceania winner of qualifying does not go directly to the tournament.
Which is the reason Australia got the hell out of there and into the AFC.
This is the OFC: American Samoa Cook Islands Fiji Kiribati-1 New Caledonia New Zealand Niue-1 Papua New Guinea Samoa Solomon Islands French Polynesia Tahiti (French Polynesia) Tonga Tuvalu-1 Vanuatu
1- Associate member of the OFC, but non-FIFA member.
It is basically New Zealand and a bunch of small island nations. It is hard to argue that New Zealand gets to advance to the World Cup, with out a playoff, because they dominated a bunch of island nations. I think it is only a matter of time before they join the AFC as well.
Originally posted by me up thereIt's going to be a long time before you see a goal anywhere near as good as Cahill's equaliser for Australia.
Okay, by "a long time", I clearly meant "tomorrow". What a goal by Gervinho for Ivory Coast. Sublime. Shame they were so spotty against counter attacks.
Originally posted by me up thereIt's going to be a long time before you see a goal anywhere near as good as Cahill's equaliser for Australia.
Okay, by "a long time", I clearly meant "tomorrow". What a goal by Gervinho for Ivory Coast. Sublime. Shame they were so spotty against counter attacks.
It was an impressive goal, but for me, it was nowhere in the same universe as Cahill's. Goals like Gervinho's are scored every World Cup, but I've never seen anything like what Cahill or Van Persie did. But it was great skill on his part, for sure.
Ivory Coast advances with a: win OR draw (with GD help if Japan beats Colombia) Japan advances with a: win and Greece win (with GD help over Greece) or draw (and GD help over Ivory Coast) Greece advances with a: win (with GD help over Japan) and Japan win OR a win and Colombia win or draw
Games left
Japan vs Colombia Greece vs Ivory Coast
1) Japan beats Colombia, Greece beats Ivory Coast Colombia 6 Japan 4 Greece 4 Ivory Coast 3
Colombia advances. Japan/Greece advance based on GD (Japan has 2 GD lead, and one more goal for)
6) Japan draws Colombia, Ivory Coast beats Greece Colombia 7 Ivory Coast 6 Greece 1 Japan 2
Colombia and Ivory Coast advance
7) Japan beats Colombia, Greece draws Ivory Coast Colombia 6 Japan 4 Ivory Coast 4 Greece 2
Colombia advances. Japan/Ivory Coast advance based on GD (If Japan wins by more than 1 goal, they advance, Ivory Coast advances if Japan scores one goal less than Ivory Coast)
8) Colombia beats Japan, Greece draws Ivory Coast Colombia 9 Ivory Coast 4 Greece 2 Japan 0
Colombia and Ivory Coast advance
9) Japan draws Colombia, Greece draws Ivory Coast Colombia 7 Ivory Coast 4 Japan 2 Greece 2
France advances with a: draw OR win and Honduras loss or draw OR win and Honduras win (with GD help) OR a loss and Honduras win or draw Ecuador advances with a: win (and GD help if Switzerland wins) OR a draw and Switzerland loss or draw OR a loss and Honduras win (with GD help) Switzerland advances with a: win (and GD help if Ecuador wins) OR a draw and Ecuador loss OR a loss and France win (with GD help) Honduras advances with a: win and France win (and much GD help)
1) Honduras beats Switzerland, Ecuador beats France France 6 Ecuador 6 Switzerland 3 Honduras 3
France and Ecuador advance. France takes first unless they lose by 6 or more goals
2) Honduras beats Switzerland, France beats Ecuador France 9 Ecuador 3 Switzerland 3 Honduras 3
France advances. Ecuador will have, at most, a -1GD by losing, Honduras has at least a -3GD, and Switzerland at best has a -3GD as well. Honduras needs to make up the -4GD with Ecuador with their win and Ecuador's loss to advance. If both teams have a score line of 1-0, or 1-0 and a loss of 2 goals, Ecuador advances. If Honduras wins 3-0 and Ecuador loses 0-1, Honduras would have 4GF, 5GA, -1GD; and Ecuador would have 3GF, 4GA, -1GA, and Honduras would advance on GF
3) Honduras beats Switzerland, Ecuador draws France France 7 Ecuador 4 Switzerland 3 Honduras 3
France and Ecuador advance
4) Switzerland beats Honduras, Ecuador beats France France 6 Ecuador 6 Switzerland 6 Honduras 0
France has, at best a +5GD by losing Ecuador has, at worse, a +1GD by winning Switzerland has, at worse, a -1GD by winning
Unless Ecuador wins 6-0 (to advance on GF by having same GD), France advances. Switzerland only advances if they win by 3 goals or more. If Switzerland wins 3-0, and Ecuador 1-0, Switzerland has 7GF, 6GA, +1GD; Ecuador has 4GF, 3GA, 1GD, and Switzerland would advance on a better GF
5) Switzerland beats Honduras, France beats Ecuador France 9 Switzerland 6 Ecuador 3 Honduras 0
France and Switzerland advance
6) Switzerland beats Honduras, Ecuador draws France France 7 Switzerland 6 Ecuador 4 Honduras 0
France and Switzerland advance
7) Honduras draws Switzerland, Ecuador beats France France 6 Ecuador 6 Switzerland 4 Honduras 1
France and Ecuador advance. France takes first unless they lose by 6 or more goals
8) Honduras draws Switzerland, France beats Ecuador France 9 Switzerland 4 Ecuador 3 Honduras 1
France and Switzerland advance
9) Honduras draws Switzerland, Ecuador draws France France 7 Ecuador 4 Switzerland 4 Honduras 1
France and Ecuador advance, as the GDs would not change
Eh, giving up the 2 points at basically the buzzer is a disappointment, but in reality, that was not a bad result at all, especially after the first Portugal goal- EVERYONE on defense, and I'm including Tim Howard, wants that one back.
But, if you think about it for a minute, look at the Portuguese celebration- or lack thereof- of what is essentially a miracle point stolen at the death. They NEEDED a win, because they know that, no matter how badly they hammer Ghana in the last game (and that is by far and away not a certainty), the fact of the matter is that their hopes of qualifying for the knockout stage rests solely on the fact that the other game going on is Germany against Germany (Western Branch), in which a draw sees both qualify.
It's not gonna be obvious, but as we get closer to Thursday, EVERYONE is gonna be expecting a draw, and that is what they're most likely gonna get.
Nigeria advances with a: win or draw OR loss and Iran loss or draw OR loss and Iran win (draw lots) OR Iran loss or draw Iran advances with a: win and Nigeria loss (GD or draw lots)
Games left:
Nigeria vs Argentina Bosnia vs Iran
1) Nigeria beats Argentina, Bosnia beats Iran
Nigeria 7pts Argentina 6pts Bosnia 3pts Iran 1pt
Nigeria and Argentina advance
2) Argentina beats Nigeria, Bosnia beats Iran
Argentina 9pts Nigeria 4pts Bosnia 3pts Iran 1pt
Argentina and Nigeria advance
3) Nigeria draws Argentina, Bosnia beats Iran
Argentina 7pts Nigeria 5pts Bosnia 3pts Iran 1pt
4) Nigeria beats Argentina, Iran beats Bosnia
Nigeria 7pts Argentina 6pts Iran 4pts Bosnia 0pts
Nigeria and Argentina advance
5) Argentina beats Nigeria, Iran beats Bosnia
Argetina 9pts Nigeria 4pts Iran 4pts Bosnia 0pts
Argentina advances Nigeria would have a 0GD at best, Iran would have a 0GD at worst. If Iran wins by 2 or more and Nigeria loses, Iran advances. If Iran wins by 1 and Nigeria loses by 1, both teams have same GD, GF, and their match was a draw. They draw lots.
Thread ahead: The W's NASCAR Fantasy league: 2014 edition Next thread: Tony Stewart injures driver with car at sprint car race. Previous thread: IFC 175
Per Dave, they invited 90 reporters to vote (including him), of which 28 did (he didn't). That's... not a very good response rate. Maybe that'll get better as it lasts, or maybe the whole thing will get dropped like a TNA ranking list.