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The W - Football - Tim Tebow & QBs in general question
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dMp
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Since: 4.1.02
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.82
I'm not an expert on football, so I don't know what makes a great quarterback.
I do recall that Tim Tebow was considered a superstar back at his college. Great stats in both passing and rushing as a QB it seems. So I would think he'd be a certified star(ter) in the NFL, although obviously it might take a few years to develop.

Now last year, when he was drafted, I heard about some reports saying he wouldn't make it in the NFL.
Today I read an article that says he's doing well as the 3rd QB for Denver, showing signs of greatness but also making mistakes. The article From S.I. (nfl.si.com) ends with 'that doesn't mean he will never be more than a second stringer' which doesn't sound too promising (the article is not negative but it says he is far from a starting QB)

Why? The guy seems to be skilled. Great stats. I know college sports isn't pro sports but still..
Were guys like Brady better in college? What makes Kyle Orton a better QB (other than experience) than Tim Tebow?

What does it take to be a good NFL Quarterback?



(edited by dMp on 12.8.11 1933)


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TheBucsFan
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Since: 2.1.02

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
    Originally posted by dMp
    I'm not an expert on football, so I don't know what makes a great quarterback.
    I do recall that Tim Tebow was considered a superstar back at his college. Great stats in both passing and rushing as a QB it seems. So I would think he'd be a certified star(ter) in the NFL, although obviously it might take a few years to develop.


There have been a LOT of *great* college quarterbacks who just couldn't make it in the NFL. A lot. Just since 2000, quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy include: Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Weinke was serviceable in the NFL, Bradford looks promising, Palmer had(?) a great career, and beyond that there's not a lot there.

The criticism of Tebow - and to my admittedly relatively untrained eye it seems to be valid - has to do with an awkward throwing motion and unreliable accuracy. Kyle Orton for his career has completed 59 percent of his passes, which isn't great but it's OK I guess. Tim Tebow, in his three starts last year, was much worse at 50 percent.

Being a fiery leader and a determined winner is enough to make up for some/most of his shortcomings in college football, but not in the NFL. The difference in talent level between the two games is too great. Tebow's running skills are great, but he doesn't even seem to be as good of a passer as Michael Vick was coming out of college, and Vick was a pretty unreliable passer early in his career.

I think most of the guys at ESPN are worthless talking heads who have little to no insight worth offering. But someone who I do find to be thoughtful, smart, and credible is Merril Hoge. Hoge just seems to me like a guy who lives, breaths, and identifies with football, and watches a LOT of it to understand what makes things work. So for me, when he goes on a rant on Twitter proclaiming that Tebow is not a promising NFL prospect, that means to me that Tebow probably is not a promising NFL prospect:

    Originally posted by Hoge
    Sitting watching tape of bronco offense from last year! Orton or Tebow? It's embarrassing to think the broncos could win with tebow!! Orton or tebow? QB play is not just about who works hard gives rare rare college speeches or who is a good guy!! Because orton works hard. And is a good guy as well. It's about who can play!! I just watched Tebow throw 5 out routes to a wide open WR! He was 1 for 5! 2 went in dirt 2 in the stands! That throwing motion he changed? U can't change who u r! Just watched 2 throws and he throws like he did in college!! College credentials do not transfer to NFL raw raw speeches do not work! You must poses a skill set to play! Tebow struggle with accuracy!


So all that summed up, I guess, is that to many, no, Tebow is not that skilled.
Sec19Row53
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Since: 2.1.02
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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.96
Echoing a lot of what TheBucsFan said, it can maybe be summarized by saying that a good or even great college QB hasn't necessarily been trained in becoming a good pro QB.

The offense run in many college programs is unlike anything that the pros run. It is possible that you won't run into anyone as big and as fast as you are in college, but that isn't the case in the pros. Instead of getting the snap via the shotgun, giving you more time to see what's happening (which is vanilla at the college level compared to the stuff that Belichick or LeBeau will throw at you), you have to take the snap from center. That move in and of itself is different, and causes a cascade of changes.

The running/scrambling QB, which is frequently the rage in college, will get CLOBBERED (dare I say SLOBBERKNOCKERED) in the pros due to the better athletes in play. Any time someone says that they'd take the #1 college team over the #32 pro team, ask yourself how many of those college guys will make it as a pro. The answer will undoubtedly be "not many", and certainly not as many as are on the worst pro team.
lotjx
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Since: 5.9.08

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.83
I think a lot of the criticism has to do with the fact that he was drafted too high. When you draft a QB in the first round there is an expectation by both the team and the draftee that he will be leading the team by year two. The Broncos are paying him good money to sit the bench. There is also the fans who think their savior has come and ironically is a bible thumper. The reality is they were in the AFC Championship game five years ago with a QB who they kicked to the curb. It also didn't help their coach for the last two years was a wack job that sent a QB who even though punked out was in the NFC championship game last year and a kick ass WR away. Denver is lost in the desert and the oasis of Teabow is all, but keeping them from going mad.

Teabow is just not an NFL QB. He may pile on wins if he does start, but this is one of the worst divisions in the league, so its not a great shock. Merrill Hodge is a observer of all things NFL. He has a long tenured in the league and is not the a typical shock jock like Skip Bayless or Colin Cowherd and other talk first did nothing on the field guys ESPN hires. I was also not that impressed with him in college since a lot of his success had to do with playing rather shit teams and the fact that the SEC while having hardware is a lot of hype at times. When you average around 20 or less passes a game that does not bold well for being a QB in the pass happy league of the NFL.

Bill Simmons said Teabow was Punk and Orton was Cena. I don't believe that. I believe the corporate Broncos and a lot of the fans want Teabow to be the QB while the experts ie the IWC think he is a joke. Orton saying he is not here to win the fans' hearts is pretty much spot on Punk's first promo. I am backing Orton just for the fact, I think he is the underdog.

(edited by lotjx on 12.8.11 1532)


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JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.26
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
    There have been a LOT of *great* college quarterbacks who just couldn't make it in the NFL. A lot. Just since 2000, quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy include: Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Weinke was serviceable in the NFL, Bradford looks promising, Palmer had(?) a great career, and beyond that there's not a lot there.


Using the Heisman Trophy as a barometer for college QB greatness isn't really that effective, I would argue, since it became "the QB of the team with the best record in the country" Award on a large basis. I mean, Peyton Manning was a *great* college QB, and Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, etc., but they weren't ever considered Heisman level (except Manning).

In my mind, the biggest factor in "will he be a great QB?" is coaching and environment. Why is Matt Cassel a high-level NFL QB? Because he spent four years as Tom Brady's backup. Matt Hasselbeck wasn't a *great* college QB at Boston College but he went to Green Bay (and Mike Holmgren) and eventually followed Holmgren to Seattle. And other successful QBs like Mark Brunell and Aaron Brooks (who didn't have a horrible career before vanishing into thin air) got their starts with Holmgren, too.

OTOH, there are plenty of guys who had "talent" but ended up in a crappy spot. Take Alex Smith, for instance. I mean, you can't do what he did in college at a place like Utah without *talent*, but San Francisco has been a mess and has had no continuity for him to develop.

Right now I am watching the Jags/Pats game from last night on NFL Network. For the Jags, Blaine Gabbert got off to a nice start but after the first drive he looked exactly like a rookie. Meanwhile, Ryan Mallett (also in his debut) came in in the second half and tore up the Jags' defense. What's the difference between Jacksonville and New England? Would it be reasonable to expect that if Mallett had been picked at 10 by the Jags and Gabbert was taken in the third by the Pats that their performances might have flipped? I think so.

I have no idea if Tim Tebow can be a good NFL QB, but I *think* he can be. But I know for sure it's not going to happen in a bad situation.The problem Tebow might have is that there aren't a lot of "good" situations where that team is looking for a QB right now.



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TheBucsFan
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Since: 2.1.02

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      There have been a LOT of *great* college quarterbacks who just couldn't make it in the NFL. A lot. Just since 2000, quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy include: Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Weinke was serviceable in the NFL, Bradford looks promising, Palmer had(?) a great career, and beyond that there's not a lot there.


    Using the Heisman Trophy as a barometer for college QB greatness isn't really that effective, I would argue, since it became "the QB of the team with the best record in the country" Award on a large basis.


My list was not meant to be exhaustive, but yes, I think it's safe to say all those guys with the possible exception of one or two were great college quarterbacks, as were virtually all of the quarterbacks who have won the Heisman. Does it mean they were literally the single best player in college football, as the award claims? No, but great nonetheless. And in many cases NFL flops.

The point still stands that the criteria that make a player great in college and the criteria that make a player great in the NFL are totally different, probably even more so at quarterback than at other positions, and that college success is not an accurate predictor of NFL success. At all.
JayJayDean
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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.26
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      Originally posted by JayJayDean
        Originally posted by TheBucsFan
        There have been a LOT of *great* college quarterbacks who just couldn't make it in the NFL. A lot. Just since 2000, quarterbacks to win the Heisman Trophy include: Chris Weinke, Eric Crouch, Carson Palmer, Jason White, Matt Leinart, Troy Smith, Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford, and Cam Newton. Weinke was serviceable in the NFL, Bradford looks promising, Palmer had(?) a great career, and beyond that there's not a lot there.


      Using the Heisman Trophy as a barometer for college QB greatness isn't really that effective, I would argue, since it became "the QB of the team with the best record in the country" Award on a large basis.


    My list was not meant to be exhaustive, but yes, I think it's safe to say all those guys with the possible exception of one or two were great college quarterbacks, as were virtually all of the quarterbacks who have won the Heisman. Does it mean they were literally the single best player in college football, as the award claims? No, but great nonetheless. And in many cases NFL flops.


I should've taken the word "college" out of "college QB greatness". I wouldn't argue that any of those guys weren't great in college. Just the opposite, in fact. I just meant the Heisman has become a bit of a "team" award and that for the most part the guys who are the elite QBs in the NFL were at least pretty darn good college QBs.

    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
    college success is not an accurate predictor of NFL success. At all.


Most EVERY NFL QBs was at least somewhat of a success at the college level, though. (Yes, there is the Matt Cassel-exception, but he was not a *bad* college QB, just a second-string QB who didn't get the chance to prove his quality, good OR bad.) I mean, can you name an NFL QB who by reasonable metrics was a terrible college QB and then improved to be a good (or even average) NFL QB? I'm having a hard time coming up with one off the top of my head.

I don't think it is that much different than the transition from high school to college. Not every 5-star stud QB recruit ends up being a successful college QB, and not every highly drafted college QB becomes a successful NFL QB. Those guys got their high ratings in high school and college by playing well and showing talent, but they don't always get put in the best situation for success.



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Excalibur05
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Since: 19.1.02
From: Minnesota

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#8 Posted on
Generalizing about college quarterbacks doesn't answer anything about Tim Tebow.

Tebow had a medicore handful of games last year, where he showed signs of being very good and signs of being very overwhelmed. Just like you would expect from just about any rookie quarterback whose only experience was in garbage time.

Kyle Orton is an average pocket quarterback with a decent arm. He got to pad his stats a lot last year on a very bad Broncos team because they had zero running game. Nothing about his career says he's anything but a journeyman, very good spot starter.

I'd say the Broncos have about equal chance to win with either guy. Orton's a better passer, no doubt, and better for a conservative gameplan. Tebow is more explosive, and while he's bound to make mistakes, he's got the higher ceiling, and the only way he's going to get better is by playing.

Of course, I get the feeling that Tebow's personality rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and I don't think a lot of people like him, and there are a lot of people waiting to see him fail. Because gameplanning wise Tebow/Orton is a push at worst, and there's no real reason to push strongly for one over the other.

But at least we can agree that they're both better than Brady Quinn.



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Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.59
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    It became "the QB of the team with the best record in the country" Award on a large basis.
Well, Tebow won titles around his Heisman trophy, rather than at the same time, but I get the gist of what you're saying.
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    Take Alex Smith, for instance. I mean, you can't do what he did in college at a place like Utah without *talent*, but San Francisco has been a mess and has had no continuity for him to develop.
Yup. I love Aaron Rodgers to a borderline psychopathic degree, but he almost certainly wouldn't have accomplished anything as a Niner.
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    In my mind, the biggest factor in "will he be a great QB?" is coaching and environment.
Who wants to buy Matt Flynn for a first round pick? Eh? Eh? Buffalo, I'm looking in your direction.



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Since: 24.3.02
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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.87
Since we're talking about training up QBs, I heard someone say once that for a head coach, you either want a QB guru or a defensive-minded guy. The QB guru is the guy who has a history of getting the most out of QBs, like Mike McCarthy, Andy Reid, Mike Holmgren, Sean Payton, John Gruden. But if you are an offensive-minded coach with no real QB expertise, then you are going to be pretty quickly fired if you don't have a good QB on the team. It's an interesting idea.



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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.61
    Originally posted by Excalibur05
    Of course, I get the feeling that Tebow's personality rubs a lot of people the wrong way, and I don't think a lot of people like him, and there are a lot of people waiting to see him fail.

IMO this is the strangest thing about the story of Tim Tebow. Every sports talking head that has ever met Tebow says he's a really nice guy and has the kind of personality that makes it hard for anybody to NOT like him. But at the same time, I can't disagree with your assessment that a lot of people want him to fail.

I feel it has to be part backlash from so much hype, part backlash against the perception that he pushes his religion on people. But if the reporters and columnists of the sports world are to be believed, it certainly has nothing to do with a lack of charm or personality.

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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.28
Orton was actually a pretty good QB at Purdue, but most of his accomplishments were overlooked because he was playing in a spread passing game for a team that had no defense.
If Tebow was 10-15 years older, he would have been an option QB in college, and, no matter how great a winner they were in college, not many people believed a Nebraska option QB would be a star at QB in the NFL.

(edited by redsoxnation on 13.8.11 1938)
Kevintripod
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Since: 11.5.03
From: Mount Pleasant, Pa.

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#13 Posted on


Tim Tebow not ready for prime time (ESPN.com)

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/6846531/tim-tebow-not-ready-prime-time








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It's False
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Since: 20.6.02
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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.84
Let's throw the question out to someone from the Denver area (which, I guess, is pretty much just Broncolanche): Are Broncos fans REALLY clamoring for Tim Tebow? Or is ESPN creating a fake story?




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Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
In college you're playing at a higher level, but not the highest level. When a college QB looks across his line at the defense, he'll see maybe 1 or 2 players that'll continue on to the next level and play professionally, but mostly future accountants, businessmen, doctors, etc. When a professional QB looks across his line at the defense, he'll see 11 men that all make their living playing football.



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Since: 2.11.02
From: Edinburgh, Scotland

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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.50
    Originally posted by dMp
    Why? The guy seems to be skilled. Great stats. I know college sports isn't pro sports but still..

    What does it take to be a good NFL Quarterback?
To give you a soccer analogy, it's for some of the same reasons that players who looked like stars in 'smaller' leagues like the SPL or the Eredivisie will struggle when they move to one of the top leagues but other. Shaun Maloney (a star in the SPL) was instantly forgettable in the Premiership. Ditto Kezman and Alves who came from Holland with big reputations to the Premiership and did very little. At the college level you can thrive despite having holes in your skill set that get exposed at the NFL level. Typically mobile QBs with questionable passing accuracy don't fare so well at the NFL level. In soccer players who relied heavily on pace or a goal-poaching instinct struggle because they're up against guys just as fast or who deny them the space in the box they previously got.

Also, everything JJD said about coaching plays a massive part, as does the weight of expectation placed on guys taken early in the first round. And until this year early draft picks would get an insane amount of guaranteed money which raises the possibility of them deciding all this training hard to play a sport where large angry men want to knock the shit out of them really isn't as much fun as it's cracked up to be.

And finally, as you'll see from lotjx's post, in the specific case of Tebow he has had to cope with the terrible burden of having extra vowels placed upon him since turning pro.
dWs
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Since: 26.2.09
From: Humpty Doo, Australia

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.00
    Originally posted by It's False
    Let's throw the question out to someone from the Denver area (which, I guess, is pretty much just Broncolanche): Are Broncos fans REALLY clamoring for Tim Tebow? Or is ESPN creating a fake story?


Been in Denver since 1979. Yes, they are clamoring for Tim Tebow. But keep in mind that Donkey fans are always looking for ANYONE to be their New Savior.

After all, there is THIS clown:
Grown Man with an Elway Thigh Tattoo

That's sort of a different rant. But "who should be the Broncos' QB" is always a hot topic. Even going back to the days of Steve Tensi. When Brian Griese was the starter, they wanted Bubby Brister, then later Steve Beuerlein (and some, even Jarious Jackson). When Jake Plummer was the starter in 2005, some wanted Bradlee Van Pelt (simply because he was a local CSU guy).

I think the only backup QB who didn't have a following was Tommy Maddox in 1992 (fans wanted Shawn Moore to start when Elway went down in November '92).

Hell, when ELWAY was the starter, some pined for Gary Kubiak or Ken Karcher. Since Elway's career ended on a great note (arguably THE greatest way to end your NFL career), fans like to retcon things and believe they always loved him. But it wasn't the case.

Bronco fans seem to think that a new QB will always solve their team's problems. How a QB can stop an opposing offense from driving 80 yards and easily scoring a TD is usually ignored.

There's also the belief that a mobile QB has more impact in the Denver offense. Watch any Bronco home game from the past 25 years and and you'll hear the crowd pop whenever a QB has to scramble or run. Elway was usually good for about 200-300 yards rushing per season. Brian Griese was practically wearing concrete shoes when he played here and displayed minimal mobility. Jake Plummer had success because he seemed to move around. Tebow seems to be mobile, so there ya' go.

Note that the keywords are "seemed" and "seems".

(edited by dWs on 17.8.11 1201)


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I'm sad that I did not get the chance of joking with my PSU friends that IU would be the team to end their national title hopes. ed: looks like the old oaken bucket game will be also be for 10th place in the conference.
- odessasteps, College Football Week 11 (2008)
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