OK, though I saw this thread and this one, I haven't seen an actual Oscar winner prediction thread... so here ya go. (My screwed-up picks in bold)
Performance by an actor in a leading role Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON Peter O'Toole - VENUS Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Performance by an actor in a supporting role Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED
Performance by an actress in a leading role Penélope Cruz - VOLVER Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN
Performance by an actress in a supporting role Adriana Barraza - BABEL Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL
Best animated feature film of the year CARS HAPPY FEET MONSTER HOUSE
Achievement in art direction DREAMGIRLS THE GOOD SHEPHERD PAN'S LABYRINTH PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST THE PRESTIGE
Achievement in cinematography THE BLACK DAHLIA CHILDREN OF MEN THE ILLUSIONIST PAN'S LABYRINTH THE PRESTIGE
Achievement in costume design CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA DREAMGIRLS MARIE ANTOINETTE THE QUEEN
Achievement in directing BABEL THE DEPARTED LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA THE QUEEN UNITED 93
Best documentary feature DELIVER US FROM EVIL AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS JESUS CAMP MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY
Best documentary short subject THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT RECYCLED LIFE REHEARSING A DREAM TWO HANDS
Achievement in film editing BABEL BLOOD DIAMOND CHILDREN OF MEN THE DEPARTED UNITED 93
Best foreign language film of the year AFTER THE WEDDING DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES) THE LIVES OF OTHERS PAN'S LABYRINTH WATER
Achievement in makeup APOCALYPTO CLICK PAN'S LABYRINTH
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score) BABEL THE GOOD GERMAN NOTES ON A SCANDAL PAN'S LABYRINTH THE QUEEN
Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song) "I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH "Listen" - DREAMGIRLS "Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS "Our Town" - CARS "Patience" - DREAMGIRLS
Best motion picture of the year BABEL THE DEPARTED LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE THE QUEEN
Best animated short film THE DANISH POET LIFTED THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL MAESTRO NO TIME FOR NUTS
Best live action short film BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA) ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY) HELMER & SON THE SAVIOUR WEST BANK STORY
Achievement in sound editing APOCALYPTO BLOOD DIAMOND FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
Achievement in sound mixing APOCALYPTO BLOOD DIAMOND DREAMGIRLS FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
Achievement in visual effects PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST POSEIDON SUPERMAN RETURNS
Adapted screenplay BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN CHILDREN OF MEN THE DEPARTED LITTLE CHILDREN NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Original screenplay BABEL LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE PAN'S LABYRINTH THE QUEEN
If, like me, you have no idea how to judge the lesser categories (Sound Mixing - WTF?) and are in a pool, the San Fran Chronicle has some predicts and if you want to know who's won awards for the majors so far, this site can help you out.
Best Picture - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (I will be happy if/when I'm proven wrong) Best Director - Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED (I just have to believe!) Best Actor - Forest Whitaker (O'Toole is the only other nominee with a hope in Hell) Best Actress - Helen Mirren (biggest dead cert in Oscar history) Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (The lifetime achievement award, essentially) Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS (She deserves it) Best Original Screenplay - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (Should be PAN'S, but the WGA win pretty much seals it) Best Adapted Screenplay - THE DEPARTED (This is such a strong category that any one of the nominees would be a deserving winner)
The rest:
Best Animated Feature - HAPPY FEET Best Art Direction - PAN'S LABYRINTH Best Cinematography - CHILDREN OF MEN Best Costume Design - DREAMGIRLS Best Editing - UNITED 93 Best Documentary - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH Best Short Documentary - TWO HANDS Best Foreign Film - PAN'S LABYRINTH Best Make-Up - PAN'S LABYRINTH Best Original Score - BABEL Best Original Song - "Listen",DREAMGIRLS Best Animated Short - MAESTRO Best Live-Action Short - WEST BANK STORY Best Sound Editing - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN Best Sound Mixing - DREAMGIRLS Best Visual Effects - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
I don't really understand all the love LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE gets. That movie was a billion times better when it was called NATIONAL LAMPOON'S VACATION.
Other then that, I guess the asian remake (THE DEPARTED) will win best picture just to shut up Scorsese and I think MONSTER HOUSE was the better of the three animated choices they've given us.
Why does the Oscars have to be chosen by people who don't go and see movies. Seriously, look at the best picture category. The movie going populace didn't go and see LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA or THE QUEEN. Shouldn't DEAD MAN'S CHEST automatically get the award because everyone saw it and liked it.
I always understood that the point of the Oscars to award good movies, which, sadly, does not always constitute popularity. That's the main difference between People's Choice Awards and Oscars.
Not to say that I completely agree with all the nominations of course.
The "the most popular picture of the year should win the best" is so bloody stupid, and it angers me every time someone trots it out at this time of year. Music isn't treated this way. Books aren't treated this way. Why the Hell do some people think movies should kowtow to the lowest common denominator?
To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Originally posted by oldschoolheroThe "the most popular picture of the year should win the best" is so bloody stupid, and it angers me every time someone trots it out at this time of year. Music isn't treated this way. Books aren't treated this way. Why the Hell do some people think movies should kowtow to the lowest common denominator?
Music is so treated this way, look at the Grammys or you're Brit Awards; generally, the more popular crap like Kanye West and Red Hot Chilli Peppers get nominated for awards while great shit like THE CRANE WIFE by the Decemberists, THE LIFE PURSUIT by Belle & Sebastian, and THE LAST ROMANCE from Arab Strap get completely ignored by all the award shows.
I'm just saying that the academy needs to revoke it's membership from a chunk of it's voters because they are not in line with the general public at all. Really, how many people do you know who've seen THE QUEEN?
You just kinda contradicted your own point. You readily admit that populist crap gets the recognition whilst the stronger stuff is ignored, and yet you then go on to say that the Oscars should be more in line with majority taste. Which one is it?
And, living in England, I know shitloads of people that saw THE QUEEN. It's a great piece of cultural cinema for us UK residents. I really don't give a crap how many people have seen the films that are up for awards tomorrow - quality isn't defined by majority rule. If it was, then shit like EPIC MOVIE would be up for gongs.
To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
"The Queen" did make $100 million worldwide (half of that domestically). "Letters From Iwo Jima" (which you did mention in your first post) would be a better example. It's at $12 million domestically.
Where's the right balance of top selling/actually good though? Maybe two best picture awards, one that is for the five highest grossing movies, and another one where they take nominations from all the films? Since 1992, there's been at most one movie a year that fits into both. The Academy probably wouldn't be happy if they had to choose between "Dead Man's Chest", "Cars", "Night at the Museum", "X-Men 3", or "The Da Vinci Code" for "Best Top 5 Movie", though.
I feel really ill-prepared; this is the first time in years that I haven't seen all of the Best Pic nominees (I missed Iwo Jima & The Queen).
Of course, using Cerebus's logic, if I haven't seen something, that means it isn't any good, so that actually makes this easier! Yay!
Pic: Babel
I'm torn. Sunshine winning would be like if, say, My Big Fat Greek Wedding won in 2003, and I can't wrap my head around that. I would vote for The Departed, myself, and I kind of feel like Babel already won, last year, when it was called Crash. Nevertheless. (Of course, if Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men were in the running -- then I'd really be torn.)
Director: Martin Scorsese Actor: Forest Whitaker Actress: Helen Mirren Sup. Actor: Eddie Murphy Sup. Actress: Jennifer Hudson Orig. Screenplay: Babel Adap. Screenplay: The Departed Animated: Cars Foreign: Pan's Labyrinth Cinematography: Children of Men Editing: Babel Art Direction: Dreamgirls Costume Design: Marie Antoinette Original Score: The Queen Original Song: "Listen," Dreamgirls Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls Sound Editing: Iwo Jima Visual Effects: Pirates Documentary Feature: Inconvenient Truth Documentary Short: Blood of the Yingzhou District Animated Short: Little Match Girl Live Action Short: West Bank Story
--K
(edited by Karlos the Jackal on 24.2.07 2138) Last 5 movies seen: Stranger Than Fiction ***1/2 - Jericho (1937) *** - Pan's Labyrinth **** - Flushed Away **** - Babel ***
Agreed. At this point, frankly, I wonder why any writer/director who wants to make an innovative TV series would even bother going to the networks first. (Besides the money, of course).