One possibility not being given much play yet is that ETA and Al-Qaeda could have collaborated on the bombings. It wouldn't be the first time that terrorist organizations put their heads together for such a purpose; the Provisional IRA was known to have ties to Middle Eastern terrorism in the 1980s.
This is a terrible turn for the Spanish government if true. Spaniards in general were opposed to the Iraq war, and the timing of the attacks was obviously chosen to affect the election.
In case people haven't heard, the e-mail to the London based Arabic news paper claiming that Al-Qaeda was responsible also claimed that they were "90% ready" to launch a large scale attack on the US.
This could have repurcussions for a lot of world leaders. In countries like Spain, where the polls suggested at one point only 5% of Spaniards supported the Iraq invasion, attacks like this could lead to people turning against their leaders. If I can be a little selfish, this isn't too good for the UK, the biggest supporter of the invasion which has a general election next year.
...full of energy. Multi-orgasmic, if you will, in a cosmic sort of way."
Originally posted by A-MOLThis could have repurcussions for a lot of world leaders. In countries like Spain, where the polls suggested at one point only 5% of Spaniards supported the Iraq invasion, attacks like this could lead to people turning against their leaders.
Originally posted by A-MOLThis could have repurcussions for a lot of world leaders. In countries like Spain, where the polls suggested at one point only 5% of Spaniards supported the Iraq invasion, attacks like this could lead to people turning against their leaders.
...or even, one could hope, against Al-Qaeda!
I'd think pretty much everyone is already against Al Qaeda, but in the eyes on the Spanish people, it could be said that by having his picture taken with Bush and Blair at The Azore Summit last year, Aznar made himself and Spain a highly visible target in the eyes of Al Qaeda.
...full of energy. Multi-orgasmic, if you will, in a cosmic sort of way."
I'm not sold on the potential of an ETA/al-Qaeda alliance. This just generally does not fit ETA's MO, though if they were working together that would give ETA plausible deniability.
Today, what the government ought to do, it does badly, and what it ought not do at all, it does too wellsuch as snoop, control, meddle, and impose the ways of the unwashed on everyone. And its going to get worse. Much worse.- Fred Reed
Well, I think the main source of confusion is that no-one has claimed responsibility yet. Most of the time, ETA are willing to claim responsibility for bombs - often *before* they're set off. Three possible scenarios present themselves:
1) This was an act of an extremist wing of ETA, splintering due to the pressure the Spanish government have put on ETA recently. This would be not dissimilar to the RIRA and other groups who carried on bombings in Ireland during the recent ceasefire, so it has precendent. However, the scale of the operation may make it unlikely that it's a smaller group.
2) It may be Al-Qaeda or an Al-Qaeda/ETA/ETA-offshoot alliance. This would seem to be unlikely as an alliance and Al-Qaeda have little or no history of working in Spain, but Al-Qaeda have precedent for not claiming responsibility for attacks.
3) It may be ETA trying to make an attack look like Al-Qaeda in the run-up to the elections to discredit the government and their involvement in the Iraq war. This seems more like a conspiracy theory or the plot of a bad movie (like, say Patriot Games) than a likely occurance, however.
I genuinely don't know which is the most likely scenario, or indeed on the repercussions of the act - whether Al-Qaeda or ETA, both have been the focus of hard-line policies by the Spanish government, and I wonder whether this will spur even more hard-line policies or a backlash against them. I think this tradegy could have even more far-reaching consequences for European politics.
Originally posted by GrimisI'm not sold on the potential of an ETA/al-Qaeda alliance. This just generally does not fit ETA's MO, though if they were working together that would give ETA plausible deniability.
I agree with Grimis. This would be a significant change for a group after 30-40 years of following the same MO. Remember, ETA apologized for an incident a couple of years ago when one of their bombs killed 22 civilians because they did not intend for such a high civilian casualty rate. Their focus has never been on maximizing civilian casualties. Given the prevailing global climate, it seems unlikely that they would change their strategy in this manner. Furthermore, this would only hurt their attempt to secede. And, in the past they always seemed to understand that large scale civilian casualties hurt their cause more than help it. But, hopefully more information will be forthcoming soon.
There's one thing I've never understood about responsibility claims, and perhaps someone who knows better than I can answer this, since I don't claim to know everything:
Until it's inviestigated, even if responsibility is claimed, how do we know they're telling the truth and not acting as a smokescreen for someone else, like what might be possible (key word: might) in this case?
After all, if terrorists can blow shit up without a conscience, how hard can lying be for them?
ETA has now said they had nothing to do with this one.
And, to the statement earlier about being 90% ready for a large attack on the US. Why oh why, if you were a terrorist, would you do something in Spain that would heighten security everywhere else. Why not leave everyone else feeling safe and secure and then, SURPRISE.
At least some day maybe I'll understand why some day maybe you never can. Or something like that.
Originally posted by The Amazing SalamiETA has now said they had nothing to do with this one.
And, to the statement earlier about being 90% ready for a large attack on the US. Why oh why, if you were a terrorist, would you do something in Spain that would heighten security everywhere else. Why not leave everyone else feeling safe and secure and then, SURPRISE.
That's ok, the UN in it's infinite wisdom passed a resolution blaming ETA anyway...
Today, what the government ought to do, it does badly, and what it ought not do at all, it does too wellsuch as snoop, control, meddle, and impose the ways of the unwashed on everyone. And its going to get worse. Much worse.- Fred Reed
Originally posted by A-MOLI'd think pretty much everyone is already against Al Qaeda, but in the eyes on the Spanish people, it could be said that by having his picture taken with Bush and Blair at The Azore Summit last year, Aznar made himself and Spain a highly visible target in the eyes of Al Qaeda.
If you swap in our PM John Howard, those sentiments are echoed here by many people. Alot of the news has "experts" theorising we could be next if it was Al Qaeda.
Originally posted by A-MOLThis, unfortunately, looks like a success for Al Qaeda, as it appears that they have influenced an election.
Which really concerns me that they'll get ideas for later this year...
Today, what the government ought to do, it does badly, and what it ought not do at all, it does too wellsuch as snoop, control, meddle, and impose the ways of the unwashed on everyone. And its going to get worse. Much worse.- Fred Reed