The nominations for the 76th annual Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences Awards, known as the Oscars, will be announced January 27th...but for the time being, let's play the guessing game!
BEST PICTURE: -The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -Mystic River -Lost In Translation -Cold Mountain -The Last Samurai ALTERNATES: Seabiscuit or In America WHY: Return of the King, Mystic & LoT have gotten nothing but good reviews. It's a three horse race between Cold Mountain, the Samurai & Seabiscuit for the final two spots, and Cold Mountain has the Miramax machine behind it...and Seabiscuit is likely to get awarded in only one of the top two categories (Picture or Director), so Director is probably what it'll get.
BEST DIRECTOR: -Peter Jackson [Return of the King] -Sofia Coppola [Lost In Translation] -Clint Eastwood [Mystic River] -Peter Weir [Master & Commander] -Gary Ross [Seabiscuit] ALTERNATE: Anthony Minghella [Cold Mountain] WHY: The three locks, plus Weir (while M&C wasn't excellent, the direction was superb) and Ross, since everyone (and me) seems to like Seabiscuit now. Minghella cold sneak in via Miramax's campaign.
BEST ACTOR: -Sean Penn [Mystic River] -Bill Murray [Lost In Translation] -Ben Kingsley [House of Sand & Fog] -Tom Cruise [The Last Samurai] -Johnny Depp [Pirates of the Carribean] ALTERNATES: Jude Law [Cold Mountain] & Russell Crowe [Master & Commander] WHY: SAG nominations basically cement Depp, Penn, Murray & Kingsley. It's between Law, Crowe & Cruise for the final spot, as all of them have Golden Globe noms...but no SAG nomination.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: -Alec Baldwin [The Cooler] -Tim Robbins [Mystic River] -Peter Sarsgaard [Shattered Glass] -Ken Watanabe [The Last Samurai] -Benicio Del Toro [21 Grams] WHY: Baldwin, Robbins, Watanabe & del Toro are practically locks. Sarsgaard is probable, but no SAG nom means somebody from Seabiscuit (Chris Cooper, William H. Macy or Jeff Bridges) could sneak in.
BEST ACTRESS: -Charlize Theron [Monster] -Naomi Watts [21 Grams] -Diane Keaton [Something's Gotta Give] -Nicole Kidman [Cold Mountain] -Evan Rachel Wood [Thirteen] WHY: Theron, Keaton, Watts & Kidman are locks. Wood is probable, especially since she got nods from the Golden Globes & SAG...and she's only a teenager!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: -Renee Zellweger [Cold Mountain] -Scarlett Johansson [Lost In Translation] -Shohreh Ashdashloo [House of Sand & Fog] -Holly Hunter [Thirteen] -Maria Bello [The Cooler] ALTERNATES: Keisha Castle-Hughes [Whale Rider] & Patricia Clarkson [Pieces of April] WHY: Everyone loves Lost in Translation, so Pieces of April's Patricia Clarkson gets bumped...for now. SAG nom for Clarkson means the race is uber-tight.
BEST SCREENPLAY (ADAPTED): -Peter Jackson, Phillipa Boyens & Fran Walsh [Return of the King] -Brian Hedgeland [Mystic River] -Anthony Minghella [Cold Mountain] -Shari Springer Berman & Robert Pulcini [American Splendor] -Peter Weir & John Collee [Master & Commander]
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: -Finding Nemo -The Triplets of Belleville -Brother Bear
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Seabiscuit -Finding Nemo -Mystic River -Master & Commander
BEST COSTUME DESIGN: -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Seabiscuit -Master & Commander -Last Samurai -Cold Mountain
BEST ART DIRECTION: -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Seabiscuit -Cold Mountain -Big Fish -Pirates of the Carribean
BEST FILM EDITING: -Last Samurai -Seabiscuit -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Mystic River -Cold Mountain
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: -Mystic River -Cold Mountain -Lost In Translation -Finding Nemo -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King
BEST ORIGINAL SONG: -"Into the West" [Return of the King] -"Man of the Hour" [Big Fish] -"School of Rock" [School of Rock] -'Time Enough for Tears" [In America] -"You Will Be My True Love" [Cold Mountain]
BEST SOUND EDITING: -Kill Bill Vol. 1 -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Seabiscuit
BEST SOUND MIXING -Kill Bill Vol. 1 -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Master & Commander -Last Samurai -Pirates of the Carribean
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Master & Commander: Far Side of the World -The Hulk
BEST MAKE-UP: -Monster -Lord of the Rings: Return of the King -Cold Mountain
Other categories I didn't guess for because I have no idea: Documentary Feature & Short, Animated Short & Foreign Language Film
SO, the FILM BY FILM TALLY: 13 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King 9 - Cold Mountain 8 - Mystic River 7 - Seabiscuit & The Last Samurai 6 - Lost In Translation & Master & Commander: The Far Side of the World 3 - Pirates of the Carribean: The Curse of the Black Pearl & Finding Nemo 2 - House of Sand & Fog, Kill Bill Vol. 1, The Cooler, 21 Grams, Monster, Big Fish & In America 1 - Shattered Glass, The Hulk, Something's Gotta Give, Veronica Guerin, School of Rock, Thirteen, Dirty Pretty Things, The Barbarian Invasions, American Splendor, The Triplets of Belleville & Brother Bear (Note: The Barbarian Invasions is Canada's official entry into the Best Foreign Film category, and may also be nominated there)
(edited by Freeway420 on 15.1.04 1446) FLAMES: 21-12-3-3 for 48 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
(This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)
Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.
Originally posted by Retrovertigo(This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)
Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.
Big Fish opened in Los Angeles County in December 2003, so it's eligible for the 2003 Academy Awards. I also really enjoyed Finney's work (as well as Ewan McGregor's), but the fact remains that neither of them have won Critics Awards or Guild Awards...yet. The Screen Actors Guild Awards next week will basically spell out the acting nominations clear as daylight. But as of yet, Finney, McGregor & Sean Astin haven't really gotten much critical acclaim...YET.
FLAMES: 22-13-3-3 for 50 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
Winners: LOTR, Jackson, Penn, Theron, Finney or Robbins and Zellweger
Rob asks Dave and Ric if they want to go backstage to play Hungry Hungry Hippos and Flair and Batista immediately bail. Flair wants to be Green. Man, EVERYBODY wants to be green. Except the girl in the commercials. She wanted to be pink. That either means that the ad agency was sexist or that she was communist. Of course Hungry Hungry Hippos is a rather capitalist game isn’t it? No self respecting communist would play Hungry Hungry Hippos. Except Stalin. He LOVED Hungry Hungry Hippos. God, I’ve got no clue what the hell I’m rambling about anymore.-- Matt "Excalibur05" Hocking, Raw Satire writer extraordinaire
You know, I just can't call it the "WWE." I just can't. My body's rejecting it like a bad liver transplant.-- Bill Simmons, espn.com/page2
Originally posted by Retrovertigo(This assumes that Big Fish will be eligible for 2003 Oscars.)
Awards shows are mostly worthless anyway, but if Albert Finney doesn't even get nominated for his amazing work in Big Fish, then the Oscars are officially a complete waste of time. Since I saw a sneak preview before New Year's, I have to call Big Fish the best film of the year, but if it's considered a 2004 film, there damn well better be a whole bunch of nominations for it in January of 2005.
Big Fish was easily eligible. It opened in New York more than a month ago.
I think Scarlett Johansson will be submitted for Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress, for Lost In Translation.
Also, unless there's been a rule change, I think LOTR will not be eligible in the makeup category because of the use of digital effects. Several films were disqualified on that basis last year.
Someone please tell me why Cowboy Bebop isn't nominated for best animated feature? I know there was some kind of technicality bullshit but does anyone know for sure?
"Just a humble bounty hunter, ma'am." -Spike Spiegel
"I think Scarlett Johansson will be submitted for Best Actress, not Best Supporting Actress, for Lost In Translation."
The studio's pushing for a supporting nod, apparently. Which is fair enough, seeing as she would have no chance of winning the lead category due to Oscar politics and all that BS.
Good choices, Freeway-but I think you've overlooked Cold MOuntain waaaay too much in the top categories. Aside from the fact that it's a really well-made movie, it's Big Harv Weinstein's Miramax Oscar Whore. Do you really think he wouldn't find a way of influencing Academy members into ensuring some big-time nominations?
Also, I'm really not feeling the love for Seabiscuit. It was really poorly paced, there was no serious conflict there ("Hey! I'm blind in one eye!" "Eh, who cares?" Pfft), and the direction was, to put it kindly, obvious. It wasn't, like, BAD or anything, but it never got oout of the "middling" range.
Okay, here we are:
Best Picture LotR: RotK Cold Mountain Mystic River The Last Samurai Lost In Translation
Best Director Peter Jackson-LotR:RotK Anthony Minghella-Cold Mountain Clint Eastwood-Mystic River Peter Weir-Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World Sofia Coppola-Lost In Translation
Best Actor Bill Murray-Lost in Translation Sean Penn-Mystic River Tom Cruise-The Last Samurai (although could be snubbed in favour of Crowe) Ben Kingsley-House Of Sand And Fog Johnny Depp-Pirates Of The Caribbean: The Curse Of The Black Pearl
Best Actress Diane Keaton-Something's Gotta Give Nicole Kidman-Cold Mountain Charlize Theron-Monster Jennifer Connelly-House Of Sand And Fog Naomi Watts-21 Grams
Best Supporting Actor Albert Finney-Big Fish Paul Bettany-Master And Commander: The Far Side Of The World Ken Wanatabe-The Last Samurai Alec Baldwin-The Cooler Tim Robbins-Mystic River
Best Supporting Actress Scarlett Johanssen-Lost In Translation Renee Zellweger-Cold Mountain Marcia Gay Harden-Mystic River Maria Bello-The Cooler Shohreh Aghdashloo-House Of Sand And Fog
And your winners are: Rings, Jackson, Cruise/Crowe (Penn loses due to his politics, Murray & Depp due to being comedy performers, Kingsley due to winning before-IT'S IN REVELATIONS, PEOPLE), Theron (voila-instacred), Wanatabe (at least, he should do), Zellweger (someone shut the Oscar Bitch UP).
"You're A Big Hunk Of Hero Sandwich, And You Wanna Save The Girl!"
Originally posted by The Vile1Someone please tell me why Cowboy Bebop isn't nominated for best animated feature? I know there was some kind of technicality bullshit but does anyone know for sure?
I have a very bad feeling that Johnny Depp will get snubbed in favor of Russell Crowe, which would be a huge travesty.
Peter Jackson deserves his Oscar this time around. Third time's the charm for Lord of the Rings, as it goes up against a weak crop of movies and actually shows how a trilogy SHOULD be concluded (Matrix, I'm looking at YOU!). Easily my pick for Best Picture.
You really SHOULD think about going back to your old Yankees cap, yo!
OldSchoolHero, the Academy is insane when it comes to cycles. Almost Famous was a brutally fantastic film, but got snubbed due to Cameron Crowe's Jerry Maguire being a big winner a few years beforehand. The Academy is about politics and "fairness", and it's unlikely that a former Best Director winner like Anythony Minghella will get a lot of nominations since The English Patient was so recent. One could argue the same about Mystic River, but Unforgiven was 11 years ago.
Plus, Cold Mountain wasn't (in my opinion) as good as any of the five films I want to see nominated for Best Picture. It was great, but the others were even better.
FLAMES: 22-13-3-3 for 50 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
Sorry, but I can't in good conscience call Seabiscuit better than Cold Mountain. On any level. And Minghella's recent win is cancelled out by the fact that he's an Oscar darling, which Cameron Crowe was not. He's British, he's arty, he's erudite, he's everything Oscar loves. Besides, both Spielberg and Soderbergh have proven in the past that close proximity means little-Christ, the 'Berg won two in five years and Soderbergh was nominated TWICE in one year! Plus, again I play the Miramax card. Weinstein got both Chocolat and The Cider House Rules up for major awards-you think he's going to have ANY problems with a film that's actually, y'know, GOOD? Care to bet against it? ;-)
"You're A Big Hunk Of Hero Sandwich, And You Wanna Save The Girl!"
Hey...the Cider House Rules WAS good (or at least I thought so).
Still, after your film wins Best Picture, you're practically persona non grata to the Academy. SINCE 1990: 1990: Kevin Costner's Dances With Wolves 1991: Jonathan Demme's The Silence of the Lambs 1992: Clint Eastwood's Unforgiven 1994: Robert Zemeckis' Forrest Gump 1995: Mel Gibson's Braveheart 1996: Minghella's The English Patient 1997: James Cameron's Titanic 1998: John Madden's Shakespeare In Love 1999: Sam Mendes' American Beauty 2000: Ridley Scott's Gladiator 2001: Ron Howard's A Beautiful Mind 2002: Rob Marshall's Chicago
The exception? 1993: Steven Speilberg's Schindler's List Speilberg's been since nominated for Saving Private Ryan, but one could argue that it was one of the most seminal pieces of filmmaking in the decade, so the Academy would have to be friggin' BLIND to not nominate it. But heck, they gave the Oscar to Shakespeare In Love...so, maybe they ARE blind.
FLAMES: 22-13-3-3 for 50 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
Freeway420, there is one problem with your theory. With few exceptions none of the winning directors followed up their wins with anything decent. Costner went on to make some of the worst films ever. Demme made "Philadelphia", but his direction was overshadowed by Hanks performance. Eastwood returned to making schlock until "Mystic River." Minghella did get a writing nomination for "The Talented Mr. Ripley" so I don't see how you could argue Oscar bias. Zemeckis has made good films, just not great films since "Forrest Gump". Gibson is just now returning to directing. Cameron hasn't. John Madden made "Captain Corelli's Mandolin" and I'm sure you know how well that was received. Ridley Scott made films taht while successful aren't the type of films to garner Oscar attention. Mendes next effort "Road to Perdition" came out amidst a strong Oscar crop and was overshadowed. Ron Howard missed with "The Missing" and Rob Marshall hasn't made a follow up yet.
I saw Cold Mountain and thought it was "eh" but it is Miramax's Oscar film and they will push it down the throats of the voters and I guarantee you it will be one of the five films nominated.
ACTOR: Bill Murray [Lost in Translation]; Ben Kingsley [House of Sand & Fog]; Peter Dinklage [The Station Agent]; Sean Penn [Mystic River] & Johnny Depp [Pirates of the Caribbean] ACTRESS: Patricia Clarkson [The Station Agent], Diane Keaton [Something's Gotta Give], Charlize Theron [Monster], Naomi Watts [21 Grams] & Evan Rachel Wood [Thirteen] SUPPORTING ACTOR: Alec Baldwin [The Cooler], Chris Cooper [Seabiscuit], Benicio del Toro [21 Grams], Tim Robbins [Mystic River] & Ken Watanabe [The Last Samurai] SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Maria Bello [The Cooler], Keisha Castle-Hughes [Whale Rider], Patricia Clarkson [Pieces of April], Holly Hunter [Thirteen] & Renee Zellweger [Cold Mountain] ENSEMBLE: In America, Return of the King, Mystic River, Seabiscuit & The Station Agent
I adjusted my predictions accordingly, as others have constantly provided evidence that Cold Mountain will probably get a nod in either Picture or Director. Plus, acting choices adjusted, as the Acting members of the Academy vote for the actors.
FLAMES: 22-13-3-3 for 50 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
Freeway, I still think you're shafting Albert Finney with your predictions. Despite his lack of a SAG nomination, he's still the only lock in the supporting category other than Robbins. I'd be surprised if Baldwin or Watanabe get snubbed, but I'd be SHOCKED if Finney didn't get a nom.
And Minghella's recent win is cancelled out by the fact that he's an Oscar darling, which Cameron Crowe was not.
I find it hard to consider anyone who actually has an Oscar (Crowe won Best Screenplay in 2000) not an Oscar darling.
Rob asks Dave and Ric if they want to go backstage to play Hungry Hungry Hippos and Flair and Batista immediately bail. Flair wants to be Green. Man, EVERYBODY wants to be green. Except the girl in the commercials. She wanted to be pink. That either means that the ad agency was sexist or that she was communist. Of course Hungry Hungry Hippos is a rather capitalist game isn’t it? No self respecting communist would play Hungry Hungry Hippos. Except Stalin. He LOVED Hungry Hungry Hippos. God, I’ve got no clue what the hell I’m rambling about anymore.-- Matt "Excalibur05" Hocking, Raw Satire writer extraordinaire
You know, I just can't call it the "WWE." I just can't. My body's rejecting it like a bad liver transplant.-- Bill Simmons, espn.com/page2
Well, from what I understand, the various branches of the Academy vote specifically for their branches awards. Thus, the acting awards are decided by fellow actors. The only awards Finney has garned thus far has been a Golden Globe nomination.
To compare: Finney: Globe nom. Robbins: Boston ensemble win, Broadcast Critics win, Florida win, Online Critics nom, Southeast win, Baldwin: Globe nom, Dallas win, Golden Satellite nom, National Board of Review win, Online Critics nom, SAG nom, Sarsgaard: Globe nom, Independent Spirit nom, National Critics win, Online Critics win, San Fran. win, Toronto win Watanabe: Globe nom, Golden Satellite nom, SAG nom Del Toro: SAG nom, Golden Satellite nom, Venice Film Festival win Chris Cooper: SAG nom
To be blunt, every award from every critics group of note has gone to somebody OTHER than Albert Finney. All Finney has is the support of the Hollywood Foreign Press. Finney did a splendid job in Big Fish. But Tim Robbins was spectacular in Mystic River & Ken Watanabe was the core of the Last Samurai, and they probably deserve the awards more than Finney does.
FLAMES: 22-13-3-3 for 50 points It took the team until March 5th to get 21 wins last year
1. I bought a cheap old fashioned wooded spring-type mousetrap at the 99 Cents Only Store. 2. I put peanut butter on the mousetrap. 3. I put it in the closet where we saw mouse droppings. 4.