The coyote goes...On the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
Depends on how long the deal for Karl Rove's soul was for.
It seems that I am - in no particular order - Zack Morris, John Adams, a Siren, Michael Novotny, Janeane Garofalo, Cheer Bear, Aphrodite, a Chihuahua, Data, Cletus the Slack Jawed Yokel, Amy-Wynn Pastor, Hydrogen, Bjork, Spider-Man, Tom Daschle, Boston, and a Chaotic Good Elvin Bard-Mage.
Its 19 months out, so who knows what happens. However, handicapping the field right now, Bush would have to be considered a strong favorite. The Democratic Party looks like they are going to have a street fight for a primary (and remember all non affiliated (coughRepublicancough) voters: Al Sharpton for President in the Democratic Primary). If this war continues to go successfully and everything Bush said turns out to be true, the peace wing of the Democratic Party will be badly damaged, but considering their high percentage in a Democratic Primary, they could still elect a peace candidate like Dean to sacrafice in the general election.
Odds on Winning Presidency [as of now](Party Nomination Odds in Italics).
Republican
Bush: 4-5 (1-20)
Democratic
Dean: 23-1 (8-1)
Kerry: 6-1 (3-1)
Lieberman: 7-1 (4-1)
Gephardt: 19-1 (10-1)
Sharpton: 1,000-1 (75-1)
Mosely-Braun: 500,000-1 (100,000-1)
There is only one man left to save Vince McMahon and the WWF/E. Where have you gone Greg Gagne, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Originally posted by LexusOn the eve of what seems to be a highly successful war in Iraq, and debates already happening on behalf of the Democratic party to find their man, what would you consider George W. Bush's odds are as to winning re-election?
Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.
The bottom line: Glory is fleeting; approval ratings a year and a half before an election are meaningless. Tell me the condition of the U.S. economy in Autumn 2004 and I'll tell you the odds of Bush Jr. winning a second term.
Remember your history. Back in 1991, after the first Gulf War, Bush Sr.'s approval rating with the American people was over 90%. However, by the time the election came around in November of 1992, Bush could only garner fewer than 38% of the popular vote.
Very good point. And also remember that approval ratings for sitting presidents always seem to be higher than the votes they pull in. I remember a poll done after Dubya's first 100 days gave him 55% ... it seems a little doubtful that millions and millions of Gore and Nader voters completely changed their minds about Bush after only three months on the job.
2000 was of course an incredibly close race ... if the economy continues to shed thousands of jobs a day, and if the Dems nominate someone competent and "presidential", 2004 could be just as close.
Any man who hates small dogs and children can't be all bad.
This may be in the wrong forum, but...I was watching the news this morning and Katie Couric was interviewing the father of PFC Lynch. Evidently, there was a report that she had not sustained any gunshot wounds during her POW ordeal.