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The W - Movies & TV - Oscar winner predictions
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Reverend J Shaft
Liverwurst








Since: 25.6.03
From: Home of The Big House

Since last post: 13 days
Last activity: 1 day
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.97
OK, though I saw this thread and this one, I haven't seen an actual Oscar winner prediction thread... so here ya go. (My screwed-up picks in bold)

Performance by an actor in a leading role
Leonardo DiCaprio - BLOOD DIAMOND
Ryan Gosling - HALF NELSON
Peter O'Toole - VENUS
Will Smith - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Alan Arkin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jackie Earle Haley - LITTLE CHILDREN
Djimon Hounsou - BLOOD DIAMOND
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS
Mark Wahlberg - THE DEPARTED

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Penélope Cruz - VOLVER
Judi Dench - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN
Meryl Streep - THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Kate Winslet - LITTLE CHILDREN

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Adriana Barraza - BABEL
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Abigail Breslin - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Jennifer Hudson - DREAMGIRLS
Rinko Kikuchi - BABEL

Best animated feature film of the year
CARS
HAPPY FEET
MONSTER HOUSE

Achievement in art direction
DREAMGIRLS
THE GOOD SHEPHERD
PAN'S LABYRINTH
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
THE PRESTIGE

Achievement in cinematography
THE BLACK DAHLIA
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE ILLUSIONIST
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE PRESTIGE

Achievement in costume design
CURSE OF THE GOLDEN FLOWER
THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
DREAMGIRLS
MARIE ANTOINETTE
THE QUEEN

Achievement in directing
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
THE QUEEN
UNITED 93

Best documentary feature
DELIVER US FROM EVIL
AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS
JESUS CAMP
MY COUNTRY, MY COUNTRY

Best documentary short subject
THE BLOOD OF YINGZHOU DISTRICT
RECYCLED LIFE
REHEARSING A DREAM
TWO HANDS

Achievement in film editing
BABEL
BLOOD DIAMOND
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
UNITED 93

Best foreign language film of the year
AFTER THE WEDDING
DAYS OF GLORY (INDIGÈNES)
THE LIVES OF OTHERS
PAN'S LABYRINTH
WATER

Achievement in makeup
APOCALYPTO
CLICK
PAN'S LABYRINTH

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
BABEL
THE GOOD GERMAN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"I Need to Wake Up" - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS
"Love You I Do" - DREAMGIRLS
"Our Town" - CARS
"Patience" - DREAMGIRLS

Best motion picture of the year
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN

Best animated short film
THE DANISH POET
LIFTED
THE LITTLE MATCHGIRL
MAESTRO
NO TIME FOR NUTS

Best live action short film
BINTA AND THE GREAT IDEA (BINTA Y LA GRAN IDEA)
ÉRAMOS POCOS (ONE TOO MANY)
HELMER & SON
THE SAVIOUR
WEST BANK STORY

Achievement in sound editing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

Achievement in sound mixing
APOCALYPTO
BLOOD DIAMOND
DREAMGIRLS
FLAGS OF OUR FATHERS
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

Achievement in visual effects
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST
POSEIDON
SUPERMAN RETURNS

Adapted screenplay
BORAT CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN
CHILDREN OF MEN
THE DEPARTED
LITTLE CHILDREN
NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Original screenplay
BABEL
LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
PAN'S LABYRINTH
THE QUEEN


If, like me, you have no idea how to judge the lesser categories (Sound Mixing - WTF?) and are in a pool, the San Fran Chronicle has some predicts and if you want to know who's won awards for the majors so far, this site can help you out.
Promote this thread!
oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1986 days
Last activity: 1920 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
The big winners:

Best Picture - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (I will be happy if/when I'm proven wrong)
Best Director - Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED (I just have to believe!)
Best Actor - Forest Whitaker (O'Toole is the only other nominee with a hope in Hell)
Best Actress - Helen Mirren (biggest dead cert in Oscar history)
Best Supporting Actor - Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (The lifetime achievement award, essentially)
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS (She deserves it)
Best Original Screenplay - LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE (Should be PAN'S, but the WGA win pretty much seals it)
Best Adapted Screenplay - THE DEPARTED (This is such a strong category that any one of the nominees would be a deserving winner)

The rest:

Best Animated Feature - HAPPY FEET
Best Art Direction - PAN'S LABYRINTH
Best Cinematography - CHILDREN OF MEN
Best Costume Design - DREAMGIRLS
Best Editing - UNITED 93
Best Documentary - AN INCONVENIENT TRUTH
Best Short Documentary - TWO HANDS
Best Foreign Film - PAN'S LABYRINTH
Best Make-Up - PAN'S LABYRINTH
Best Original Score - BABEL
Best Original Song - "Listen",DREAMGIRLS
Best Animated Short - MAESTRO
Best Live-Action Short - WEST BANK STORY
Best Sound Editing - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN
Best Sound Mixing - DREAMGIRLS
Best Visual Effects - PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN



To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Cerebus
Scrapple








Since: 17.11.02

Since last post: 8 days
Last activity: 8 hours
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.48
I don't really understand all the love LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE gets. That movie was a billion times better when it was called NATIONAL LAMPOON'S VACATION.

Other then that, I guess the asian remake (THE DEPARTED) will win best picture just to shut up Scorsese and I think MONSTER HOUSE was the better of the three animated choices they've given us.

Why does the Oscars have to be chosen by people who don't go and see movies. Seriously, look at the best picture category. The movie going populace didn't go and see LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA or THE QUEEN. Shouldn't DEAD MAN'S CHEST automatically get the award because everyone saw it and liked it.
jentos
Cotto








Since: 16.12.02
From: Minneapolis

Since last post: 1959 days
Last activity: 261 days
AIM:  
ICQ:  
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.80
I always understood that the point of the Oscars to award good movies, which, sadly, does not always constitute popularity. That's the main difference between People's Choice Awards and Oscars.

Not to say that I completely agree with all the nominations of course.
chill
Landjager








Since: 18.5.02

Since last post: 2686 days
Last activity: 2686 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.62
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Forest Whitaker - THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Eddie Murphy - DREAMGIRLS

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Helen Mirren - THE QUEEN

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett - NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Best animated feature film of the year
CARS

Achievement in art direction
DREAMGIRLS

Achievement in cinematography
THE PRESTIGE

Achievement in costume design
DREAMGIRLS

Achievement in directing
THE DEPARTED

Best documentary feature
IRAQ IN FRAGMENTS

Best documentary short subject
TWO HANDS

Achievement in film editing
BABEL

Best foreign language film of the year
PAN'S LABYRINTH

Achievement in makeup
PAN'S LABYRINTH

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
BABEL

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Listen" - DREAMGIRLS

Best motion picture of the year
BABEL

Best animated short film
MAESTRO

Best live action short film
WEST BANK STORY

Achievement in sound editing
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

Achievement in sound mixing
DREAMGIRLS

Achievement in visual effects
PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST

Adapted screenplay
THE DEPARTED

Original screenplay
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE




// the circus // dvd shelf // top 20 //

oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1986 days
Last activity: 1920 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
The "the most popular picture of the year should win the best" is so bloody stupid, and it angers me every time someone trots it out at this time of year. Music isn't treated this way. Books aren't treated this way. Why the Hell do some people think movies should kowtow to the lowest common denominator?



To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Cerebus
Scrapple








Since: 17.11.02

Since last post: 8 days
Last activity: 8 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.48
    Originally posted by oldschoolhero
    The "the most popular picture of the year should win the best" is so bloody stupid, and it angers me every time someone trots it out at this time of year. Music isn't treated this way. Books aren't treated this way. Why the Hell do some people think movies should kowtow to the lowest common denominator?


Music is so treated this way, look at the Grammys or you're Brit Awards; generally, the more popular crap like Kanye West and Red Hot Chilli Peppers get nominated for awards while great shit like THE CRANE WIFE by the Decemberists, THE LIFE PURSUIT by Belle & Sebastian, and THE LAST ROMANCE from Arab Strap get completely ignored by all the award shows.

I'm just saying that the academy needs to revoke it's membership from a chunk of it's voters because they are not in line with the general public at all. Really, how many people do you know who've seen THE QUEEN?
oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1986 days
Last activity: 1920 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
You just kinda contradicted your own point. You readily admit that populist crap gets the recognition whilst the stronger stuff is ignored, and yet you then go on to say that the Oscars should be more in line with majority taste. Which one is it?

And, living in England, I know shitloads of people that saw THE QUEEN. It's a great piece of cultural cinema for us UK residents. I really don't give a crap how many people have seen the films that are up for awards tomorrow - quality isn't defined by majority rule. If it was, then shit like EPIC MOVIE would be up for gongs.



To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 451 days
Last activity: 412 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
"The Queen" did make $100 million worldwide (half of that domestically). "Letters From Iwo Jima" (which you did mention in your first post) would be a better example. It's at $12 million domestically.

Where's the right balance of top selling/actually good though? Maybe two best picture awards, one that is for the five highest grossing movies, and another one where they take nominations from all the films? Since 1992, there's been at most one movie a year that fits into both. The Academy probably wouldn't be happy if they had to choose between "Dead Man's Chest", "Cars", "Night at the Museum", "X-Men 3", or "The Da Vinci Code" for "Best Top 5 Movie", though.




Karlos the Jackal
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: The City of Subdued Excitement

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.00
I feel really ill-prepared; this is the first time in years that I haven't seen all of the Best Pic nominees (I missed Iwo Jima & The Queen).

Of course, using Cerebus's logic, if I haven't seen something, that means it isn't any good, so that actually makes this easier! Yay!

Pic: Babel

I'm torn. Sunshine winning would be like if, say, My Big Fat Greek Wedding won in 2003, and I can't wrap my head around that. I would vote for The Departed, myself, and I kind of feel like Babel already won, last year, when it was called Crash. Nevertheless. (Of course, if Pan's Labyrinth and Children of Men were in the running -- then I'd really be torn.)

Director: Martin Scorsese
Actor: Forest Whitaker
Actress: Helen Mirren
Sup. Actor: Eddie Murphy
Sup. Actress: Jennifer Hudson
Orig. Screenplay: Babel
Adap. Screenplay: The Departed
Animated: Cars
Foreign: Pan's Labyrinth
Cinematography: Children of Men
Editing: Babel
Art Direction: Dreamgirls
Costume Design: Marie Antoinette
Original Score: The Queen
Original Song: "Listen," Dreamgirls
Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls
Sound Editing: Iwo Jima
Visual Effects: Pirates
Documentary Feature: Inconvenient Truth
Documentary Short: Blood of the Yingzhou District
Animated Short: Little Match Girl
Live Action Short: West Bank Story

--K



(edited by Karlos the Jackal on 24.2.07 2138)

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Finally watched last week's episode this morning and had to laugh as a Spartacus watcher when the Slade Wilson character (who also plays Crixus on Spartacus) said he preferred using a sword.
- dunkndollaz, Arrow 1x13 - "Betrayal" (2013)
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