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The W - Movies & TV - Oscar Predictions!
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oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1994 days
Last activity: 1928 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
Okay, so its usually confined to me and Freeway doing this each year, but I always like to have a stab at how the nominations are going to end up looking. Just the six big categories here.

BEST PICTURE
BABEL
THE DEPARTED
DREAMGIRLS
LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
THE QUEEN

Alernate: LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

Buzz: These five seem fairly locked at the moment. It's a pretty weak slate-DREAMGIRLS and THE DEPARTED are the only real BP-quality movies on there, and LMS is that annoying kind of film which gets underhyped then overpraised. I sincerely hope it doesn't repeat its Producer's Guild success. IWO JIMA could sneak on there in place of one or the other of the last two listed, and would be no more deserving than either.

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro Gonzales Innaritu, BABEL
Martin Scorsese, THE DEPARTED
Bill Condon, DREAMGIRLS
Stephen Frears, THE QUEEN
Clint Eastwood, LETTERS FROM IWO JIMA

Alternate: Jonathan Dayton, Valerie Faris, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Buzz: Pretty much a carbon copy of the Best Picture shortlist, aside from my favouring of Clint for the fifth spot. Two reasons for that: one, the Academy loves the crusty old bastard, and two, despite IWO JIMA's shortcomings it displays a whole Hell of a lot more talent than the point-and-shoot stuff of LMS. Another impossibly weak field here. Scorsese SHOULD be a virtual lock for the final award, but dumber things have happened. People like Guillermo del Toro, Darren Aronofsky and Alphonso Cuaron are getting royally buttfucked this year.

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Forest Whitaker, THE LAST KING OF SCOTLAND
Peter O'Toole, VENUS
Leonardo DiCaprio, THE DEPARTED
Will Smith, THE PURSUIT OF HAPPYNESS
Brad Pitt, BABEL

Alternate: Sacha Baron Cohen, BORAT: CULTURAL LEARNINGS OF AMERICA FOR MAKE BENEFIT GLORIOUS NATION OF KAZAKHSTAN

Buzz: It's all about the Forest here. The performances are so tihn on the ground this season that Pitt could get a thankyou nomination for an unremarkable performance, and-far more interesting-Cohen could plausibly sneak onto the ballot. I would forgive Oscar for any other sins it commits this year if that were allowed to happen.

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Helen Mirren, THE QUEEN
Kat Winslet, LITTLE CHILDREN
Judi Dench, NOTES ON A SCANDAL
Penelope Cruz, VOLVER
Meryl Streep, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA

Alternate: Beyonce Knowles, DREAMGIRLS

Buzz: I just pray that my final five is correct and my alternate is not. Mirren is unbeatable on the night.

BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Eddie Murphy, DREAMGIRLS
Jack Nicholson, THE DEPARTED
Jackie Earle Haley, LITTLE CHILDREN
Alan Arkin, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Djimon Hounsou, THE BLOOD DIAMOND

Alternate: Mark Wahlberg, THE DEPARTED/Steve Carell, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE

Buzz: This is a weird category to call this year, because two of the candidates-THE DEPARTED and LMS-have such strong ensembles that there's two or three people to consider from each. I'd love to see Wahlberg make it, and even Carell, but their costars gets the nod due to seniority. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hounsou bumped in favour of a DEPARTED or LMS double-dip, though. I'd love to see Sergi Lopez make it on here for PAN'S LABYRINTH, but a snowball has a better chance of escaping Hell unscathed.

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Emily Blunt, THE DEVIL WEARS PRADA
Jennifer Hudson, DREAMGIRLS
Toni Collette, LITTLE MISS SUNSHINE
Rinko Kikuchi, BABEL
Cate Blanchett, NOTES ON A SCANDAL

Alternate: Diane Lane, HOLLYWOODLAND

Buzz; Seems pretty cut-and-dried. Kikuchi's the big success story coming out of BABEL, just like Blunt was the surprise winner in PRADA. Lane seems like a longshot, but the Academy has made a habit out of nominating her for awards she'll never win.

Thoughts? Counter-predictions? Freeway?




To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
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Tenken347
Boudin blanc








Since: 27.2.03
From: Parts Unknown

Since last post: 20 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.55
Until you wrote up this list, I hadn't realized what a thin year it's been for prestige pictures.
oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1994 days
Last activity: 1928 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
No kidding. For a couple of the categories I was struggling to come up with five even remotely worthy candidates. I feel like the Academy will almost HAVE to nominate people/movies they don't want to, like Cohen.

Ah well. At least THE DEPARTED has a good shot at Director and Supporting Actor, and Whitaker is a shoo-in for Best Actor.



To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 312 days
Last activity: 9 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.07
It's on!

Best Picture:
Babel
Dreamgirls
The Departed
The Queen
United 93
SKINNY: Super-praised United 93 snags the 5th spot in place of Sunshine, which gets nominations in other area while U93 seems to be shut out.

Best Director:
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu (Babel)
Bill Condon (Dreamgirls)
Martin Scorsese (The Departed)
Stephen Frears (The Queen)
Jonathan Dayton & Valerie Faris (Little Miss Sunshine)
SKINNY: Same four as Picture, Sunshine swaps for U93.

Best Leading Actor:
Forest Whitaker (Last King of Scotland)
Peter O'Toole (Venus)
Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed)
Will Smith (The Pursuit of Happyness)
Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson)

Best Leading Actress:
Helen Mirren (The Queen)
Judi Dench (Notes on a Scandal)
Meryl Streep (The Devil Wears Prada)
Penelope Cruz (Volver)
Kate Winslet (Little Children)

Best Supporting Actor:
Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)
Alan Arkin (LIttle Miss Sunshine)
Djimon Honsou (Blood Diamond)
Jack Earle Haley (Little Children)
Jack Nicholson (The Departed)
SKINNY: Locks. Steve Carell has microscopic chance of snagging Arkin's nom.

Best Supporting Actress:
Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)
Rinko Kikuchi (Babel)
Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)
Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine)
Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada)
SKINNY: Locks.



DVDs; Blog
oldschoolhero
Knackwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country

Since last post: 1994 days
Last activity: 1928 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
I think this is one of the closest sets of matching predictions we've ever had. As always I hope you're right, and UNITED 93 gets SOME kind of love.



To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
Freeway
Scrapple








Since: 3.1.02
From: Calgary

Since last post: 312 days
Last activity: 9 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.07
    Originally posted by oldschoolhero
    I think this is one of the closest sets of matching predictions we've ever had. As always I hope you're right, and UNITED 93 gets SOME kind of love.


I think they have to get something.

There's also the school of thought that says the 5th Best Actor spot goes to either Will Smith or Sasha Baron Cohen. I really have no idea who gets it.



DVDs; Blog
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 18 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.83
I'm thinking Cohen gets a nod based on his Golden Globes win, but I could easily see him getting snubbed. Will Smith has seen Oscar gold in the past and could be nominated again. I actually enjoyed his PoH performance to his performance in Ali.




I'm still the Juggernaut, bitch!
Alex
Bratwurst








Since: 24.2.02

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 3 min.
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.01
I think Abigail Breslin should be nominated for Little Miss Sunshine.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 10 hours
Last activity: 9 hours
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.56
Picture
Departed, Dreamgirls, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
Upset pick: Little Children

Director
Eastwood, Frears, Greengrass, Inarritu, Scorsese
Upset pick: Almodovar

Actress
Dench, Gyllenhaal, Mirren, Streep, Winslet
Upset pick: Knowles

Actor
Cohen, DiCaprio, O'Toole, Smith, Whitaker
Upset pick: Gosling

Supporting Actress
Blanchett, Breslin, Hudson, Kikuchi, O'Hara
Upset pick: Epps or Streep (Prairie Home Companion)

Supporting Actor
Arkin, Haley, Hounsou, Murphy, Nicholson
Upset pick: Marky Mark



I don't know what is more disquieting -- the fact that the rest of the statue is missing, or that it has four toes.
Wpob
Lap cheong








Since: 21.11.02
From: Williston Park, NY

Since last post: 1 hour
Last activity: 1 hour
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.26
Actor and Actress are easy: it is Whitacker and Mirren for sure. And rightfully so. They were both phenomenal and Whitacker is LONG overdue for some recognition.

Picture and Director will go hand in hand and I see no reaosn not to give it to The Departed and Scorsese. Dreamgirls was good but not better than Chicago.

Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett SHOULD win as she was so good in Notes of a Scandal and held her own when she was on screen with Dame Judi Dench. Of course, Jennifer Hudson WILL win because Dreamgirls needs to win soemthing.

Supporting Actor: I loved Alan Arkin in Little Miss Sunshine and thought he stole every scene he was in. However, jack is in the mix and we all know how much Hollywood LOVES jack Nicholson so I could see him pulling off the upset and taking home the Oscar.



...that motherfucker is always spiked with pain.....
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I enjoyed the debut of "Life on Mars" on BBC America. The premise looked obvious, but then the main character saw through it as well and working through some logical actions which provoked logical responses from the other characters.
- Boston Idol, [BBCA] Life On Mars... (2006)
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