oldschoolhero
Knackwurst
   
   
    
   
Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country
Since last post: 1496 days
Last activity: 1430 days
|  #1 Posted on 17.1.08 0656.06 | Instant Rating: 9.00 | Is Freeway even still here? I hope so - if not someone else better step up to the plate....
BEST PICTURE
No Country For Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Michael Clayton
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Atonement
BUZZ: No Country, There Will Be Blood and Diving Bell
I'm fairly confident about. Atonement seemed to be DOA until the Globes, but it's a big British prestige picture and Lord knows Oscar loves them. I wish I wasn't including Michael Clayton on the list, but given historical precedent it seems more likely than the spoiler choices.
SPOILERS: Sweeney Todd, Into The Wild
WINNER: No Country For Old Men
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into The Wild
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
BUZZ: As per usual, they mostly match with the Best Picture slate. Despite his contribution to the movie being arguably the best part of the whole thing, Joe Wright's not gonna make it for Atonement.
SPOILER: Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd
WINNER: Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney, Michael Clayton,
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into The Wild
Tommy Lee Jones, In The Valley Of Elah
BUZZ: The first four I'm pretty sure about. Jones seemed like a lock for a nod when the film opened last year, but the buzz has completely evaporated. Still, he had a Hell of a year all round, and I can see him getting a nom here as reward.
SPOILER: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
BEST ACTRESS
Julie Christie, Away From Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Keira Knightly, Atonement
BUZZ: The Academy loves Keira, and her performance comes from a far better movie than that of the spoiler choice. Plus, the spoiler choice'll be getting nominated elsewhere...
SPOILER: Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
WINNER: Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Casey Affleck, The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
Ben Foster, 3:10 To Yuma
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson's War
BUZZ: Hoffman's nom is a bone thrown to both him personally and CWW as a movie. Foster's nod is just something I'm feeling in my bones after the SAG's love for the film as a whole. It'd be cool to see him get one, I guess.
SPOILER: Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
WINNER: Javier Bardem, No Country For Old Men
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
Soirse Ronan, Atonement
Catherine Keener, Into The Wild
BUZZ: Blanchett's the 800-pound gorilla in the room here. Ronan makes it because Atonement needs more noms, and because having a youngster on the slate is an Oscar fave.
SPOILER: Kelly MacDonald, No Country For Old Men
WINNER: Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
So, there's the main categories. Thoughts? Challenges?
To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
| Promote this thread! |           | samoflange
Lap cheong
Since: 22.2.04
From: Cambridge, MA
Since last post: 7 hours
Last activity: 7 hours
|  #2 Posted on 17.1.08 0921.12 | I'm a horrible patron of the arts since I haven't seen a single film mentioned here. I hadn't even heard of over half of them. I do have the soundtrack to Into The Wild, but that's because I'm a Pearl Jam fanboy.
Lloyd: When I met Mary, I got that old fashioned romantic feeling, where I'd do anything to bone her.
Harry: That's a special feeling. | Big Bad
Scrapple
Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario
Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 1 hour
|  #3 Posted on 17.1.08 1354.09 | Instant Rating: 5.21 | Is it just me, or is this one of the best Oscar years in a long time? For every category, you could go another five deep and still come up with worthy nominees.
I think Amy Adams or even Helena Bonham Carter has a shot at that fifth Best Actress shot over Jolie. Other than the Globe nomination, I hadn't heard a hint of buzz over Angelina's performance in months.
Ultimately it would still be a surprise if Diving Bell made the final cut for Best Picture. Into the Wild might have a better chance overall, and let's not count out Juno just yet.
Ryan Gosling's got a shot at a Best Actor nomination. Other than that I think you have the category pretty well forecasted.
If Diving Bell has enough buzz, Max Von Sydow might sneak in with a supporting actor nomination. Same with Juno's Jennifer Garner in the supporting actress category.
You really think PT Anderson will win Best Director? I think the Coens are the favourites. PT's earlier films didn't receive a ton of Academy acclaim.
How you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on? Huh? Gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? Gotta, gotta nice litte story you're working on there? Your big novel you've been working on for 3 years? Huh? Gotta, gotta compelling protaganist? Yeah? Gotta obstacle for him to overcome? Huh? Gotta story brewing there? Working on, working on that for quite some time? Huh? Yea, talking about that 3 years ago. Been working on that the whole time? Nice little narrative? Beginning, middle, and end? Some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? At the end your main character is richer from the experience? Yeah? Yeah? | The King of Keith
Lap cheong
Since: 4.11.02
From: Winchester, VA
Since last post: 79 days
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| #4 Posted on 17.1.08 1431.55 | Instant Rating: 5.40 | Another film that should get numerous nominations but probably won't is Once. It should at least get a nomination for best original song.
Hail to the Redskins! | Cerebus
Knackwurst
Since: 17.11.02
Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 5 hours
| #5 Posted on 17.1.08 1549.42 | Instant Rating: 1.48 | You are forgetting the biggest spoiler there is for Best Actor... Tom Hanks. No matter what he's in, the voters love the guy.
If Walk Hard doesn't get at least one best song nomination, then there just isn't any justice in this world.
Forget it Josh... it's Cerebustown. | Quezzy
Knackwurst
Since: 6.1.02
From: The Moon
Since last post: 9 days
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| #6 Posted on 18.1.08 0432.32 | Instant Rating: 4.36 | For best actor I'd say all your nominees, your spoiler, Ryan Gosling, Denzel Washington, James McAvoy and maybe Tom Hanks all come before Tommy Lee Jones. I think any buzz he had is pretty much dead.
It was my favorite supporting role of the year, but I doubt Ben Foster has a shot of getting nominated. Wilkinson probably gets that spot with Max von Sydow next in line. I hope Foster does get nominated though.
Lance's Response:
THAT IS AWESOME! | oldschoolhero
Knackwurst
Since: 2.1.02
From: nWo Country
Since last post: 1496 days
Last activity: 1430 days
| #7 Posted on 18.1.08 0549.38 | Instant Rating: 9.00 | TLJ has had a stellar year across the board, but is unlikely to get nominated for No Country. They'll want to honour him somehow, so the Elah nod seems obvious. Hanks doesn't have a hope, I don't think - he hasn't been an automatic nominee since the early '00s.
PTA and the Coens are neck-and-neck, I think. I just chose PTA because the Coens have a longer track record of being dicked over. I'd be happy to be wrong!
To those who say people wouldn't look; they wouldn't be interested; they're too complacent, indifferent and insulated, I can only reply: There is, in one reporter's opinion, considerable evidence against that contention. But even if they are right, what have they got to lose? Because if they are right, and this instrument is good for nothing but to entertain, amuse and insulate, then the tube is flickering now and we will soon see that the whole struggle is lost. This instrument can teach, it can illuminate; yes, and it can even inspire. But it can do so only to the extent that humans are determined to use it to those ends. Otherwise it is merely wires, and lights, in a box.-Edward R. Murrow
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