McCain is the nominee. At this point the only question is if he can get to the 1190 by himself or if he needs to include Romney's delegates. But at this point the only story is if he doesn't win a state. And even then its more of a curiousity than a major issue.
On the other hand the original Super Tuesday, the early March one, has become the Taipei Death Match of the Democratic party, and Hilary Clinton is likely to go full-out Tong Po on Obama at this point. She really has no other choice. Since Super Tuesday Obama has racked up totals of (counting US Virgin Islands vote):
55% or more - 10 out of 10 states 60% or more - 7 out of 10 states 65% or more - 5 out of 10 states 70% or more - 3 out of 10 states 75% or more - 3 out of 10 states
It seems hard to believe that voters in all these other states would be so overwhelmingly for Obama but somehow the Ohio and Texas voters will see something totally different. I expect it to be closer due to demographics in Texas and Ohio (the last two groups holding strong for Clinton are Hispanics and those earning under $30,000) but at this point it seems unlikely that Clinton can get the kind of margins needed to make a major dent in the pledged delegate battle. I think Obama's camp would be happy to keep the race around 55-45 in each state. And if Obama wins either or both of these big states I think you'll begin to see the dominoes begin to fall as the rats start to flee the Clinton ship.
Can't speak for Texas but Ohio really isn't like the states that Obama has been racking up. Ohio is a microcosm of several states. Industrial NE Ohio, Rural agricultural Ohio, Appalachian SE Ohio, and Kentuckiana around Cincy. Most Dems are in the rust belt around, Cleveland, Youngstown, Akron, Massillon and are tradtitional Dems. They may move Obama but we will have to wait and see.
Obama's been doing very good in non-Democratic areas actually. He got 56% in the Democratic primary in Utah, for example, which hasn't gone for the Democrats in the general election since 1964. He's going to need to do better with Latinos to have a chance in Texas though. CNN exit polls say that 71% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton in California, and 60% did the same in Arizona. And Clinton ended up winning both states.
Originally posted by AWArulzJust read where Clinton has to gain 57% of all future delegates to beat Obama. Sounds bleak. She'd best kick butt in Tejas and Ohio.
Even scarier for HRC was if you give Obama just a few states that he's likely to win (Mississippi, North Carolina, etc.) then she ends up needing to win the other states by something like 65-35 margins.
I really attribute this to the Clinton's idiotic decision a few weeks ago to have Bill subtly inject the racial angle (remember that story?) in an attempt to turn him into Jesse Jackson redux. Basically, white voters didn't buy it, and black voters were so disgusted by it they completely left the Hillary. Obama was not racking up the 90% black vote until they did that. You give Hillary a third of the black vote, and she's the front-runner.
I think the point of requiring retreat is so that people aren't taking the law into their own hands everytime they get the chance. I don't know if any of you remember the story of the Subway Vigilante, but do we really want THAT happening all the time?...