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The W - Current Events & Politics - NH, SC Poll Results
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Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Marist College: Dean Ahead

Howard Dean 35
John Kerry 22
Wesley Clark 11
Joseph Lieberman 6
John Edwards 4
Richard Gephardt 3
Al Sharpton 1
Carol Moseley Braun 1
Bob Graham 1
Dennis Kucinich 1
Other n.a.
Undecided 15

Not a surprise there, as the New Englaners hold on to the lead. Clark's bump is not unsurprising either. The most interesting thing to note is Lieberman's 6, which seems awfully low.

Edwards Pollster Has, Well, Edwards Ahead
This poll is probably meaningless given the circumstances

John Edwards 23%
Wesley Clark 13
Joe Lieberman 8
Al Sharpton 8
Howard Dean 7
Dick Gephardt 6
Carol Mosley Braun 5
Bob Graham 4
John Kerry 3
Dennis Kucinich 1
Undecided 23

If this poll is accurate, that means that black candidates account for 13 percent of the vote, which is an astonishing number given the fact that Sharpton and Braun are lackluster candidates. Futher proof that one cannot underestimate the importance of the Soutern black vote.

It also means that Edwards would remain a player despite being nothing nowere else. Of course, the SC primary is on Feb. 3, one week after New Hampshire. That will naturally affect the balance in SC.


EDIT: Marist also has a New York poll:

Joseph Lieberman 23%
Howard Dean 13
Al Sharpton 10
Richard Gephardt 8
John Kerry 8
Wesley Clark 6
John Edwards 3
Carol Moseley Braun 3
Bob Graham 2
Dennis Kucinich 1
Other n.a.
Undecided 23%

Also important: Here is a question they asked of NY Voters:

Question Wording: If Hillary Clinton runs for president and the 2004 Democratic presidential primary in New York were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:

Hillary Clinton 46%
Joseph Lieberman 14%
Howard Dean 7%
John Kerry 6%
Richard Gephardt 5%
Wesley Clark 4%
Al Sharpton 3%
John Edwards 2%
Carol Moseley Braun 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Bob Graham < 1%
Undecided 11%

(edited by Grimis on 25.9.03 1341)

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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.22
40-45% of the SC primary voters will be black, so don't be surprised if Sharpton and Braun account for around 18-22% combined in the primary.
Dean seems not to have caught fire south of the Mason Dixon line, and Gephardt seems to have caught fire no place.



Time to do a Red Sox pennant chase supply list: Arsenic: check. Cyanide: check. Booze: check. Fully loaded gun for full chamber Russian Roulette: check. Ok, I'm prepared, let the pennant race commence.
Big Bad
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.54
Presuming that the nomination goes to one of the front-runners (Clark, Dean, Kerry, maybe Lieberman), what do you think the odds are on Edwards or maybe even Moseley-Braun being added to the ticket as VP?



"When this bogus term alternative rock was being thrown at every '70s retro rehash folk group, we were challenging people to new sonic ideas. If some little snotty anarchist with an Apple Mac and an attitude thinks he invented dance music and the big rock group is coming into his territory, [that's] ridiculous." - Bono, 1997
calvinh0560
Boudin rouge








Since: 3.1.02
From: People's Republic of Massachusetts

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 0.00
Moseley-Braun no chance. I still think Lieberman would make a very good VP the problem is all the rest of the front-runners (Dean, Kerry, Clinton) don't need a VP from the north east. When all is said and done come next year I think Clinton or Gore will be the dem's nomination. I just don't see them sitting back and letting Dean be the most powerful man in their party.
Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I fully expect the Democratic nominee to go with a woman or a minority on the ticket instead of any of the frontrunners(except Clark). Of course, trhe problem is finding a woman or minority whose Democratic credentials won't turn off half of the country immediately.



spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.17
    Originally posted by Grimis
    I fully expect the Democratic nominee to go with a woman or a minority on the ticket instead of any of the frontrunners(except Clark). Of course, trhe problem is finding a woman or minority whose Democratic credentials won't turn off half of the country immediately.

The only way you'll see that happen is if it looks like Bush might take California, in which case they might try to reach out to Feinstein for a VP nod. Otherwise it will be a geographic/positional choice, trying to bring the party closer to middle and preferably steal a state or two with the choice. Unless it were some minority choice WAY out of left field (a business leader or some other currently apolitical figure) there's no one that can fit the bill for the Dems of being minority/woman and helping them win.

Of course, if the Dems truly wanted to make a bold move, they would try and recruit someone like a Carly Fiorina or Robert Johnson, some major female and/or African-American business leader. It would give them instant cred points on the economy, help shore up the base, and be a way to try to bring one of those groups into the race without scaring Middle America with some sort of "radical" candidate.



Coming to Chicago Nov. 12...I am SO there! - Brenda Weiler

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Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
Last activity: 1003 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I agree about the geographical nod, especially if one of the northeasterners is the nominee. The best shot the Democrats would have to nominee a solid candidate who is also a minority would be Harold Ford from Tennesse, who has the minor inconvenience of not turning 35 until May '05.



MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.28
Gee, at least let Harold Ford get to the Senate. And I know he looks good on TV and all, but he's from that crazy Memphis family, which means he's probably got some kind of skeleton in his closet.

You're also forgetting Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico

Grim, could you maybe try to go one thread without bringing up racial politics and then claiming that's bringing up racial politics is all Democrats do?




"I'm sorry, I didn't think I was going to talk about 'man on dog' with a United States Senator. It's sort of freaking me out."


Associated Press interview with Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), 04-07-2003.
Grimis
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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
Last activity: 1003 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    Grim, could you maybe try to go one thread without bringing up racial politics and then claiming that's bringing up racial politics is all Democrats do?


I don't really think I was breaking new ground here by suggesting the Democrats pick a minority. This is going to be a Mondale type election in the general and if you know that you're going to lose, it sure doesn't hurt, especially if the candidate has qualifications.

    Originally posted by MoeGates
    You're also forgetting Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico

Actually I didn't forget him. It just doesn't make any sense for him to take the slot as a 2nd year governor. Especially since he's biding his time to maybe run for President in '08.



spf
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.21
    Originally posted by Grimis
    I don't really think I was breaking new ground here by suggesting the Democrats pick a minority. This is going to be a Mondale type election in the general and if you know that you're going to lose, it sure doesn't hurt, especially if the candidate has qualifications.

Wow, that's mighty confident talk for a guy supporting a President who has an approval rating which is hovering at and below 50% a year out from a general election. I'll tell you what Grimis, if you're so certain it's going to be a walkover in 2004, I have a proposition for you. If Bush carries as many states as Reagan did, I will donate $250 to the political candidate or political organization of your choosing. Heck, I'll even drop the number down to 45 states, which is 4 less than Reagan got. If however Dubya doesn't carry that many, then you do the same for the person/group of my choosing. Whaddya say, you THAT sure that your man is going to walk all over the Dems?

(edit: if you don't want to go state by state, we could make it Bush has to win by a margin of at least 18%, as Reagan did in 1984 winning 59-41)

(edited by spf2119 on 26.9.03 1142)


Coming to Chicago Nov. 12...I am SO there! - Brenda Weiler

blogforamerica.com
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
Last activity: 1003 days
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by spf2119
    I'll tell you what Grimis, if you're so certain it's going to be a walkover in 2004, I have a proposition for you. If Bush carries as many states as Reagan did, I will donate $250 to the political candidate or political organization of your choosing. Heck, I'll even drop the number down to 45 states, which is 4 less than Reagan got. If however Dubya doesn't carry that many, then you do the same for the person/group of my choosing. Whaddya say, you THAT sure that your man is going to walk all over the Dems?


I'm confident: not stupid


Incidentally, Wisconsin is in with new results:

Wesley Clark 18%
Joseph Lieberman 14%
Howard Dean 13%
Dick Gephardt 11%
John Kerry 7%
Carol Mosley Braun 3%
John Edwards 1%
Al Sharpton 1%
Dennis Kucinich 1%
Bob Graham 0%

Undecided 32%


EDIT: And Iowa

GEPHARDT 23%
DEAN 23%
KERRY 17%
EDWARDS 11%
CLARK 8%
LIEBERMAN 6%
OTHER 5%
UNDECIDED 7%



All it means is that all of these states are all over the place and it's going to take a polarizing event to whittle this down to the same 2 or 3 guys in each state. And that might not happen until the SC Primary.

(edited by Grimis on 26.9.03 1316)


Matt Tracker
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Since: 8.5.03
From: North Carolina

Since last post: 7 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.27


    John Edwards 23%
    Wesley Clark 13
    Joe Lieberman 8
    Al Sharpton 8
    Howard Dean 7
    Dick Gephardt 6
    Carol Mosley Braun 5
    Bob Graham 4
    John Kerry 3
    Dennis Kucinich 1
    Undecided 23

    If this poll is accurate, that means that black candidates account for 13 percent of the vote, which is an astonishing number given the fact that Sharpton and Braun are lackluster candidates. Futher proof that one cannot underestimate the importance of the Soutern black vote.

    It also means that Edwards would remain a player despite being nothing nowere else. Of course, the SC primary is on Feb. 3, one week after New Hampshire. That will naturally affect the balance in SC.


As an SC native and resident: Let me holla at ya, playa!

Sharpton has been ALL OVER S.C. since hs started campaigning. There's a big to-do throughout the state for counties to officially recognize MLK Day as a paid state holiday. Greenville, for instance, is one of our larger counties and cities, and that council refuses to acknowledge MLK Day. Jesse Jackson, a Greenville native, has started and encouraged protest for months now across the state. Sharpton got in on that, and it raised his profile.

Edwards is from one state over (the lone obvious non-yankee, to boot), and his lead is matched by the undecided percentage.

No matter what the poll says, S.C. is a diehard Republican state. How diehard? We voted in a Democrat governor to protest his GOP predecessor's decision to remove the Confederate flag from the statehouse. Then when the Dem's four-year term was up, we promptly voted in another GOP governor. It was essentially an electoral protest to show how conservative the majority of voters wish the state to be.

A Democrat will not win the presidential electoral college votes from S.C. unless some huge scandal smacks the GOP campaign.




"To be the man, you gotta beat demands." -- The Lovely Mrs. Tracker
MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 1 day
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.28
Former General Claudia Kennedy from Virginia might be an interesting choice for veep. She was going to run for Virginia Senate until she realized that probably the only Democrat that could beat Warner in Virginia would be Robert E. Lee.

It would accomplish what Gore did with Lieberman - allow him to move to the left and center at the same time. I'm not pretending like she'll put Virginia in play at all, but the Southern thing might swing a percentage or two in a few states also.



"I'm sorry, I didn't think I was going to talk about 'man on dog' with a United States Senator. It's sort of freaking me out."


Associated Press interview with Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA), 04-07-2003.
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
Last activity: 1003 days
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
New SC poll has Edwards out front:

Edwards: 16
Clark: 7
Lieberman: 7
Dean: 6
Sharpton: 5
Gephardt: 5
Kerry: 5
Braun: 4
Graham: 2
Kucinich: 1

Undecided: 42




2003 WORLD SERIES

vs

Please Believe It!
TheCow
Landjager








Since: 3.1.02
From: Knoxville, TN

Since last post: 2387 days
Last activity: 2386 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.00
    Originally posted by MoeGates
    Gee, at least let Harold Ford get to the Senate. And I know he looks good on TV and all, but he's from that crazy Memphis family, which means he's probably got some kind of skeleton in his closet.

    You're also forgetting Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico

    Grim, could you maybe try to go one thread without bringing up racial politics and then claiming that's bringing up racial politics is all Democrats do?




You know what's really amazing about Harold Jr.? He's the only Ford that we can't seem to find any skeletons in his closet. I personally think John (his uncle) took them (among his many highlights are threatening a Memphis Light, Gas, and Water worker with a shotgun for cutting off his power .... no, he didn't pay the bill). I will say this, though: he seems to be making a very positive name for himself.





Knoxville Lindy Exchange
Overmind
Linguica








Since: 17.10.02
From: Orlando, FL

Since last post: 3214 days
Last activity: 2314 days
#16 Posted on
    Originally posted by Grimis
    Undecided: 42



I've been thinking about this for a while, but now I'm even more inclined to change my name to Undecided and run for President. I wouldn't declare a political party so I could be on all the ballots. No one would stand a chance against me!



Unimaginable is the power of HHH. Anyone who stands against him faces certain doom. (paraphrased from Magus, Chrono Trigger)
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1206 days
Last activity: 1003 days
#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by Overmind
    I've been thinking about this for a while, but now I'm even more inclined to change my name to Undecided and run for President.

Actually there have been court cases on something similar. Guy tried to change his name to "None of the Above" a few years back but the court wouldn't let him do it for obvious reasons.



2003 WORLD SERIES

vs

Please Believe It!
Overmind
Linguica








Since: 17.10.02
From: Orlando, FL

Since last post: 3214 days
Last activity: 2314 days
#18 Posted on
    Originally posted by Grimis

    Actually there have been court cases on something similar. Guy tried to change his name to "None of the Above" a few years back but the court wouldn't let him do it for obvious reasons.


I'm a little more surprised that I probably should be to find out that someone actually tried to do that -- more amused than surprised, really.

I'm curious as to whether someone ever tried to get None of the Above added to a ballot as an option, a la Brewster's Millions. I would only mean something if it prevented the defeated candidates from running in the new elections that would result.

Edit: I figured out how to use italics in a sentence.

(edited by Overmind on 2.10.03 1456)


Unimaginable is the power of HHH. Anyone who stands against him faces certain doom. (paraphrased from Magus, Chrono Trigger)
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