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The W - Football - NFL Playoff seedings after week 15
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 13 hours
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
NFL Week 15 Playoff Standings (only top 8 have ties broken)

AFC
1. *z-New England (14-0) East champs
2. z-Indianapolis (12-2) South champs

3. z-San Diego (9-5) (7-3 AFC) West champs
4. Pittsburgh (9-5) (7-4 AFC, beat Cle twice)
5. Jacksonville (10-4)
6. Cleveland (9-5)

7. Tennessee (8-6)
---
8. Buffalo (7-7) (6-6 AFC)
9. Houston (7-7) (4-6 AFC)
10. Denver (6-8)
11. Cincinnati (5-9)

12t Baltimore (4-10)
12t Oakland (4-10)
12t Kansas City (4-10)
15. New York (3-11)
16. Miami (1-13)

Byes: #1 New England (14-0), #2 Indianapolis (12-2)
First round: #6 Cleveland (9-5) @ #4 San Diego (9-5), #5 Jacksonville (10-4) @ #3 Pittsburgh (9-5)


NFC
1. z-Dallas (12-2) (beat GB) East Champs
2. z-Green Bay (12-2) (lost to Dallas) North Champs

3. z-Seattle (9-5) (beat TB) West champs
4. z-Tampa Bay (9-5) (lost to Seattle) South champs
5. New York (9-5)
6. Minnesota (8-6) (6-5 NFC)

7. New Orleans (7-7) (6-4 NFC)
8. Washington (7-7) (5-5 NFC)
9. Carolina (6-8) (6-4 NFC)
---
10t Arizona (6-8) (3-7 NFC)
10t Detroit (6-8) (4-7 NFC,lost to AZ)

10t Philadelphia (6-8) (4-7 NFC)
13. Chicago (5-9)
14. San Francisco (4-10)
15t Atlanta (3-11)
15t St. Louis (3-11)

Byes: #1 Dallas (12-2), #2 Green Bay (12-2)
First Round: #6 Minnesota (8-6) @ #3 Seattle (9-5), #5 New York (9-5) @ #4 Tampa Bay (9-5)

y-clinched wild card
z-clinched division
*-clinched home-field

(edited by Zeruel on 18.12.07 1615)


-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
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kwik
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Since: 5.9.02
From: Norwich, NY

Since last post: 53 days
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.55
Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and the Giants can all clinch playoff bearths with a win. Tennessee losing also gets Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh in. A Cleveland loss gets Jacksonville in, and a Brown loss plus a Steeler win clinches the North for Pittsburgh. Going by the NFL, Buffalo and Houston have been eliminated from playoff contention.

In the NFC, the Giants would back in with a loss, and losses/ties by Washington and New Orleans. Minnesota gets in with a win (against Washington), and a New Orleans loss or tie. The only other thing left to clinch is home field throughout the NFC playoffs, and Dallas gets that with a win, and a Green Bay loss.

So, the relevant games this weekend are:

Pittsburgh at St. Louis- Thursday
Dallas at Carolina- Saturday
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Green Bay at Chicago
NY Giants at Buffalo
Philadelphia at New Orleans
Oakland at Jacksonville
NY Jets at Tennessee
Washington at Minnesota



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The Thrill
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Since: 16.4.02
From: Green Bay, WI

Since last post: 250 days
Last activity: 96 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
Welcome home, men of the 2nd Bn, 127th Inf, 32d "Red Arrow" Brigade, WI Army Nat'l Guard! Good luck to those down south.

After blowing it vs. the Eagles, dare I hope for a Carolina team that just knocked off Seattle to do the same at home vs. Dallas?

The Pack is so close to home-field, man...




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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 539 days
Last activity: 539 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.48
    Originally posted by The Thrill
    After blowing it vs. the Eagles, dare I hope for a Carolina team that just knocked off Seattle to do the same at home vs. Dallas?

    The Pack is so close to home-field, man...





Better chance of a Washington team that might be playing for their playoff lives to knock off Dallas than a Panther team that knocked off a Seahawk team that rarely travels well to the East Coast for an early game and was playing its 2nd such game in 3 weeks, the week after clinching their division.

(edited by redsoxnation on 18.12.07 2132)
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 13 hours
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by kwik
    Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and the Giants can all clinch playoff bearths with a win. Tennessee losing also gets Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Pittsburgh in. A Cleveland loss gets Jacksonville in, and a Brown loss plus a Steeler win clinches the North for Pittsburgh. Going by the NFL, Buffalo and Houston have been eliminated from playoff contention.

    In the NFC, the Giants would back in with a loss, and losses/ties by Washington and New Orleans. Minnesota gets in with a win (against Washington), and a New Orleans loss or tie. The only other thing left to clinch is home field throughout the NFC playoffs, and Dallas gets that with a win, and a Green Bay loss.

    So, the relevant games this weekend are:

    Pittsburgh at St. Louis- Thursday
    Dallas at Carolina- Saturday
    Cleveland at Cincinnati
    Green Bay at Chicago
    NY Giants at Buffalo
    Philadelphia at New Orleans
    Oakland at Jacksonville
    NY Jets at Tennessee
    Washington at Minnesota


I can't believe that in week 16 that every team that is in, or almost in, the playoffs (except one, Indy) is in a must-win situation for either getting in, keeping a higher seed, keeping their home-field advantage, or keeping their perfect season alive.

I love my Sunday Ticket more than ever now.





-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 512 days
Last activity: 472 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
NFC SCENARIOS (HOW THEY CAN GET IN, NOT COUNTING TIES):
Carolina needs 6 out of 7 games to go their way to make the playoffs. If they get to 8 wins, they will have tiebreakers over every other 8-8 team. So they need two wins (vs. Dallas and vs. Tampa Bay). Then they needs Dallas to beat Washington, Washington to beat Minnesota, Minnesota to lose to Denver, and have New Orleans lose to either Philadelphia or Chicago. If every game had a 50-50 chance, their odds of making the playoffs would be 2.3%.

New Orleans likewise ends up with the tiebreaker against any other team it is tied with (except Carolina). They're in with two wins (vs. Philadelphia and Chicago) and either a Minnesota loss (against either Washington or Denver) or two New York losses (to New England and Buffalo). They also can get in with one win, two Minnesota loses, a Washington loss to Dallas, and at least one Carolina loss. If every game had a 50-50 chance, their odds of making the playoffs would be 25.8%.

Washington definitely needs a win over Minnesota. If they beat Dallas, they need a New Orleans loss or two Giants losses. If they lose to Dallas, they need Minnesota to lose to Denver, New Orleans to lose both, and Carolina to lose at least one. If every game had a 50-50 chance, their odds of making the playoffs would be 22.6%.

Minnesota has the tiebreaker with New York, and the tiebreaker with Washington will be decided when they play each other. They're in with two wins. If they beat only Washington, they're in with a New Orleans loss. If they beat only Denver, they're in with two out of three of the following: a Washington loss to Dallas, two Giants losses, and a New Orleans loss. If every game had a 50-50 chance, their odds of making the playoffs would be 57.8%.

New York would really have to be unlucky to not make it into the playoffs. The only way they miss the playoffs is if they lose both games, and have 2 of the 3 of the following: a Minnesota win, 2 Washington wins, or 2 New Orleans wins. If every game had a 50-50 chance, their odds of making the playoffs would be 92.2%.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 20.12.07 1718)
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 13 hours
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    >Washington was swept by New York


Um, no. They beat NY Sunday night. Both teams are 1-1 against each other and won as the away team.



-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

"Let me see if I can get inside his mouth." -- Michael Wilbon on PTI August 28, 2007
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 512 days
Last activity: 472 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
    Originally posted by Zeruel
      Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
      >Washington was swept by New York


    Um, no. They beat NY Sunday night. Both teams are 1-1 against each other and won as the away team.

THAT CHANGES EVERYTHING!
Crap, I always make a mistake like that at some point.

Ok, so if New York and Washington are tied at 9-7, it goes to the Strength of Victory tiebreaker. With wins over Dallas and Minnesota, Washington would have enough to win SoV. So that changes things.
Update coming eventually.

The NFC has been updated. Here's the AFC.

Pittsburgh has pretty good odds. They're in with a win, a Tennessee loss, or two Cleveland losses. If Pittsburgh beats St. Louis but loses to Baltimore, Cleveland wins both games, Jacksonville wins at least one game, and Tennessee wins both games, then Pittsburgh and Tennessee go down to Strength of Victory for the last slot, which is currently undecided. Pittsburgh currently has 53 SoV, and Tennesseee has 48.
They also win the division with a win and a Cleveland loss, or two wins, or two Cleveland losses. If every game had 50-50 odds, Pittsburgh would have a 94.53% chance of making the playoffs.

Cleveland is in the playoffs with a win or a Tennessee loss. They win the division with two wins and a Pittsburgh lose, or a win and two Pittsburgh losses. If every game had 50-50 odds, Cleveland would have a 89.06% chance of making the playoffs.

Jacksonville is in the playoffs with a win, a Pittsburgh loss, a Cleveland loss to Cincinnati, or a Tennessee loss. If every game had 50-50 odds, Jacksonville has a 97.66% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee has the toughest row to hoe. First off, they need to win both of their remaining games. Then they need two Pittsburgh losses, two Jacksonville losses, or one Cleveland loss. They could still make it in with one Pittsburgh loss (to Baltimore), two Cleveland wins, and at least one Jacksonville win, but they would have to win the Strength of Victory tiebreaker with Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh currently leads 53-48). If every game had 50-50 odds, Tennessee has a 18.36% chance of making the playoffs.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 20.12.07 1955)
kwik
Summer sausage








Since: 5.9.02
From: Norwich, NY

Since last post: 53 days
Last activity: 37 min.
AIM:  
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.54
So, one game down, one team clinched. Pittsburgh won tonight, so they're in.



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TheBucsFan
TheChiefsFan








Since: 2.1.02

Since last post: 133 days
Last activity: 133 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.30
    Originally posted by kwik
    So, one game down, one team clinched. Pittsburgh won tonight, so they're in.


Well, they still haven't clinched. It's incredibly unlikely, but they could still be knocked from the playoffs.
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 512 days
Last activity: 472 days
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
    Originally posted by TheBucsFan
      Originally posted by kwik
      So, one game down, one team clinched. Pittsburgh won tonight, so they're in.


    Well, they still haven't clinched. It's incredibly unlikely, but they could still be knocked from the playoffs.

Yeah, the SOV tiebreaker scenario is still in play if Pittsburgh loses to Baltimore, Cleveland wins both games, and Tennessee wins both games.
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