AFC 1. Indy (13-0) South Champion, clinched #1 seed 2. San Diego (10-3) West leader, will win the div with a Denver loss OR win/tie and Denver tie. Will clinch #2 seed with a win and Denver loss/tie and a NE loss/tie. Will clinch a playoff berth with a win/tie OR about 6 different other scenarios.
3. Cincinnati (9-4) North leader, will win the div with a win OR tie and Baltimore loss/tie OR a Baltimore loss. Will clinch a playoff berth with a tie and Miami loss and NY Jets loss and a Jacksonville loss 4. New England (8-5) East leader 5. Denver (8-5) 6. Jacksonville (7-6) (6-3 conf record)
7. Baltimore (7-6) (6-4 conf record) 8. Miami (7-6) (5-4 conf record, swept NY Jets) 9. NY Jets (7-6) (got swept by Miami) 10. Pittsburgh (6-7) (beat Tennessee) 11. Tennessee (6-7) (lost to Pittsburgh, split Houston, 2-4 div record)
1st round byes #1 Indy (13-0), #2 San Diego (10-3)
Wildcard weekend #6 Jacksonville (7-6) @ #3 Cincinnati (9-4) #5 Denver (8-5) @ #4 New England (8-5)
NFC 1. New Orleans (13-0) South Champions, clinched a top 2 seed. Will clinch #1 seed with a win and a Minnesota loss/tie OR a tie and Minnesota loss 2. Minnesota (11-2) North leaders, will clinch the div with a win OR tie and GB loss/tie OR a GB loss. Will clinch a top 2 seed with a win and a Philly loss/tie OR a tie and GB loss/tie and a Philly loss.
3. Philadelphia (9-4) East leaders, will clinch a playoff birth with a win/tie and a NY Giants loss/tie OR a win and Dallas win/tie 4. Arizona (8-5) West leaders, can clinch the div with a win and a SF loss/tie OR a tie and SF loss 5. Green Bay (9-4) can clinch a playoff birth with a win and a Dallas loss OR a win and a NY Giants loss/tie OR a tie and NY Giants loss 6. Dallas (8-5)
7. NY Giants (7-6) 8. Atlanta (6-7) (beat SF) 9. San Francisco (6-7) (lost to Atlanta) 10. Carolina (5-8) (5-4 conf record) 11. w-Chicago (5-8) (3-7 conf record, beat Seattle)
12. w-Seattle (5-8) (4-6 conf record, lost to Chicago) 13. w-Washington (4-9) 14. w-Detroit (2-11) 15. w-Tampa Bay (1-12) (1-8 conf record) 16. w-St. Louis (1-12) (1-9 conf record)
1st round byes #1 New Orleans (13-0), #2 Minnesota (11-2)
Wildcard Weekend #6 Dallas (8-5) @ #3 Philadelphia (9-4) #5 Green Bay (9-4) @ #4 Arizona (8-5)
w- Eliminated from playoffs
The AFC is 32-24 (0.571) vs the NFC
Divisional Strength by out of division record AFC South 21-9 (0.700) NFC East 19-15 (0.559) AFC East 16-14 (0.533) NFC North 17-15 (0.531)
NFC South 16-18 (0.471) AFC West 15-17 (0.469) AFC North 13-17 (0.433) NFC West 10-22 (0.312)
Draft order: (for non-playoff teams) 1. Tampa Bay (1-12) 2. St. Louis (1-12) 3. Detroit (2-11) 4. Cleveland (2-11)
5. Kansas City (3-10) 6. Washington (4-9) 7. Oakland (4-9) 8. Buffalo (5-8)
9. Denver - from Chicago (5-8) 10. Seattle (5-8) 11. San Francisco - from Carolina (5-8) 12. Pittsburgh (6-7)
13. Atlanta (6-7) 14. Tennessee (6-7) 15. Houston (6-7) 16. San Francisco (6-7)
17. Jacksonville (7-6) 18. New York Jets (7-6) 19. New York Giants (7-6) 20. Baltimore (7-6)
-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year -- -- July 2009 Ordained Reverend --
Originally posted by Zeruel3. Philadelphia (9-4) East leaders, will clinch a playoff birth with a win/tie and a NY Giants loss/tie OR a win and Dallas win/tie
Am I being dense here or do you mean a Dallas loss or tie?
I can't rap my head around the Dallas win being beneficial either, but NFL.com agrees. (Actually, I did some looking, and I'm guessing that a three way tie at 10-6 between Philly, Dallas, and NYG is unfavorable to Philly if Dallas doesn't beat New Orleans; otherwise, all scenarios where Philly wins Week 15, loses out, and Dallas & NYG win out still put Philly in the playoffs.)
Also, by my math, the Eagle can clinch #3 at worst with a win & a Arizona loss (as that will clinch the Eagles having a better conference record). And I presume that the Packers can clinch the #5 spot with a win and NYG & Dallas losing. Can anyone confirm?
(edited by hansen9j on 16.12.09 1304) It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
It's too soon to talk about the Riders... But Go Pack Go! (9-4, 2nd NFC North)
If PHI and DAL both win this week, then at worst, DAL would take the East and PHI would win a head-to-head tie against NYG.
But if (1) PHI wins this week and loses out (2) DAL loses this week and wins out and (3) NYG wins out, then PHI loses a complicated three-way tie (that goes to the common opponents tiebreaker).
Originally posted by dMrSo if the Eagles win and Dallas win, Philly's in but less likely to win the division. A Dallas loss makes winning the East easier but guarantees nowt.
I think I'll go right ahead and hope for a Dallas loss. Wanting anything else would just be.......weird.
Hope for Dallas AND the Giants to lose. You get your playoff spot clinched anyway, and you're MUCH more likely to win the division.
It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
It's too soon to talk about the Riders... But Go Pack Go! (9-4, 2nd NFC North)
Here's the Dallas lose scenario spelled out, via the always great Football Outsiders (footballoutsiders.com):
But here's a nightmare scenario for you: Say the Cowboys lose to the Saints but win their next two games. The Eagles beat the Niners, lose to the Broncos, then lose to the Cowboys. The Giants win out. That puts everyone at 10-6. It's a three-way tie, but the Giants swept the Cowboys, the Eagles swept the Giants, and the Cowboys, in this scenario, swept the Eagles. All three teams are 2-2 in the head-to-head.
It would then go to the divisional record. All three teams would be 4-2. Next come the common games. The Giants and Cowboys would be 5-3 in out-of-division common games: 2-2 against the AFC West and 3-1 against the NFC South. The Eagles would be 4-4 (remember, we penciled in a Saints win over the Cowboys and a Broncos win over the Eagles). That eliminates the Eagles.
Once the Eagles are eliminated, the league reverts back to the two-team tiebreakers. That gives the Giants the division on the strength of their sweep of the Cowboys. The Eagles and Cowboys then go into the Wild Card tiebreaker pool. If it's just the two of them at 10-6, then the Cowboys win because of their sweep. If the Packers are also 10-6, they gum everything up, because they only have a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cowboys.
So if it gets the Packers scenario, the Eagles would be rooting for the Cowboys to get the #5 seed over the Packers, and hope they have the tiebreaker over the Packers.
EDIT: Actually, now that I think about it, it's not very gummed up in a 3-way tie for two wild cards. For #5, Eagles get dumped first due to being swept by the Cowboys, and then the Packers get the spot due to the H2H. Then for #6, the Cowboys get the #6 due to the sweep.
(edited by hansen9j on 17.12.09 0850) It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.
It's too soon to talk about the Riders... But Go Pack Go! (9-4, 2nd NFC North)
Thread ahead: Why is Alabama eligible for the BCS title game? Next thread: Chris Henry reportedly dead, but might not be. Previous thread: Big Ten seeks 12
Given that two of them are at home, I'd actually expect the Saints to win those games, making 16-0 a realistic possibility. (Of course, now that I've jinxed it, they'll probably get upset by Carolina this weekend.)
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