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The W - Football - NFL playoff seedings after week 13
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 1 day
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05


AFC
1. Indy (12-0) South Champion,
will clinch 1st seed with a win OR a tie and a Cincinnati loss and a San Diego loss.
Will clinch at least 2nd seed with a tie OR a Cincinnati loss or tie and a San Diego loss OR a Cincinnati loss and a San Diego loss or tie
2. San Diego (9-3) West leader (7-3 conf record) SD will clinch a playoff berth if alot of things happen (it would be about a paragraph long. They need to win or tie and need alot of help to get it next week)

3. Cincinnati (9-3) North leader (6-3 conf record) Will win the Div with a win OR tie and Baltimore loss or tie and a Pittsburgh loss or tie OR Baltimore and Pittsburgh lose
4. New England (7-5) East leader
5. Denver (8-4)
6. Jacksonville (7-5)

7. Baltimore (6-6) Beat Pittsburgh
8. Pittsburgh (6-6) Lost to Baltimore
9. Miami (6-6) Swept NY Jets
10.N.Y. Jets (6-6) Got swept by Miami
11. Tennessee (5-7) (split games with Houston, 2-4 div record)

12. Houston (5-7) (split games with Tennessee, 1-5 div record)
13. Oakland (4-8) (3-6 conf record)
14. Buffalo (4-8) (2-7 conf record)
15. w-Kansas City (3-9)
16. w*Cleveland (1-11)


1st round byes:
#1 Indy (12-0), #2 San Diego (9-3)

Wildcard weekend:
#6 Jacksonville (7-5) @ #3 Cincinnati (9-3)
#5 Denver (8-4) @ #4 New England (7-5)



NFC
1. New Orleans (12-0) South Champions, will clinch at least 2nd seed with a win or tie OR a Dallas, Philly, and Arizona loss or tie
2. Minnesota (10-2) North leader, will win div with win and Green Bay loss, will win a playoff birth with a win OR a tie and a NY Giants loss

3. Arizona (8-4) West leader, 6-2 conf record, will win Div with a win
4. Dallas (8-4) East leader, beat Philly, 6-3 conf record
5. Philadelphia (8-4) lost to Dallas, 7-2 conf record
6. Green Bay (8-4) (6-3 conf record)

7. N.Y. Giants (7-5)
8. Atlanta (6-6)
9. Carolina (5-7) (5-4 conf record)
10. San Francisco (5-7) (split games with Seattle, 3-1 div record, 4-4 conf record)
11. Chicago (5-7) (3-6 conf record, lost to San Francisco)

12. Seattle (5-7) (split games with San Francisco, 3-3 div record, lost to Chicago)
13. w-Washington (3-9)
14. w-Detroit (2-10)
15. w-Tampa Bay (1-11) (1-8 conf record)
16. w-St. Louis (1-11) (1-9 conf record)


w- Eliminated from playoffs

1st round bye:
#1 New Orleans (12-0), #2 Minnesota (10-2)

Wildcard games:
#6 Green Bay (8-4) @ #3 Arizona (8-4)
#5 Philadelphia (8-4) @ #4 Dallas (8-4)

The AFC is 26-22 (0.542) vs the NFC

Divisional Strength by out of division record
AFC South 18-8 (0.692)
NFC East 18-14 (0.563)
NFC North 16-14 (0.533)
NFC South 16-16 (0.500)

AFC West 14-14 (0.500)
AFC East 12-14 (0.462)
AFC North 12-16 (0.429)
NFC West 10-20 (0.333)

Draft order: (for non-playoff teams)
1.Cleveland (1-11)
2. Tampa Bay (1-11)
3. St. Louis (1-11)
4. Detroit (2-10)

5. Washington (3-9)
6. Kansas City (3-9)
7. Buffalo (4-8)
8. Oakland (4-8)

9. Denver - from Chicago (5-7)
10. San Francisco - from Carolina (5-7)
11. Seattle (5-7)
12. San Francisco (5-7)

13. Houston (5-7)
14. Tennessee (5-7)
15. Pittsburgh (6-6)
16. New York Jets (6-6)

17. Atlanta (6-6)
18. Miami (6-6)
19. Baltimore (6-6)
20. New York Giants (7-5)

My FIFA-like playoff system idea. I hate the outdated notion of two arbitrarily defined conferences (which a few teams have jumped. Baltimore even has a championship in each conference!) Remember a few years back when Indy and New England were clearly the two best teams in the league? That was my inspiration. It would have been awesome if they could have been on opposite sides of the bracket.

Eight divisional champs + four next best teams.
Top four div champs get 1st round bye.
Tie-breakers are head-to-head, then SOS. The harder the SOS, the higher the seed

All games played at higher seed except championship game.
#9 Denver (8-4) @ #8 New England (7-5)
Winner @ #1 New Orleans (12-0)

#12 Jacksonville (7-5) @ #5 Cincinnati (9-3)
Winner @ #4 San Diego (9-3)

#11 Green Bay (8-4) @ #6 Arizona (8-4)
Winner @ #3 Minnesota (10-2)

#10 Philadelphia (8-4) @ #7 Dallas (8-4)
Winner @ #2 Indy (12-0)

I'm going to seed the last batch of playoffs since the Texans gave us 32 teams to see how the playoffs could have looked.



-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

-- July 2009 Ordained Reverend --
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hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 1 day
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.59
    Originally posted by Zeruel


    AFC
    1. Indy (12-0) South Champion,
    Will clinch at least 2nd seed with a tie OR a Cincinnati loss or tie and a San Diego loss OR a Cincinnati loss and a San Diego loss or tie



What's the math on Cincy or San Diego tying helping Indy clinch a bye?



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.

It's too soon to talk about the Riders...
But Go Pack Go! (7-4, 2nd NFC North)
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 1 day
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
There are 4 games left. Indy is 3 games up on each. Let us play what if.

If Indy loses to Denver, Cincy ties Minnesota, and SD loses to Dallas:

Indy would be 12-1, 8-1 AFC
Cincy would be 9-3-1, 6-3 AFC
San Diego would be 9-4, 7-3 AFC

There would be 3 games left, and they play 12 AFC games total. Indy doesn't play either Cincy nor SD, But they play each other week 15, so if Indy loses out, Cincy beat SD and their other games, and SD only lost to Cincy, we'd have:

Indy 12-4, 8-4 AFC
Cincy: 12-3-1, 9-3 AFC
SD: 11-5, 6-6 AFC

SD is the #3 seed

If SD beat Cincy, we'd have

Indy 12-4, 8-4 AFC
Cincy: 11-4-1, 8-4 AFC
SD: 12-4, 7-5 AFC

Cincy is the #3 seed

-------------------------------------------------------
If Indy loses to Denver, Cincy loses to Minnesota, and SD ties to Dallas:

Indy would be 12-1, 8-1 AFC
Cincy would be 9-4, 6-3 AFC
San Diego would be 9-3-1, 7-3 AFC

Same thing as before, but if Cincy beats SD, we'd have:

Indy 12-4, 8-4 AFC
Cincy: 12-4, 9-3 AFC
SD: 11-4-1, 8-4 AFC

SD is the #3 seed

If SD beat Cincy, we'd have:

Indy 12-4, 8-4 AFC
Cincy: 11-5, 8-4 AFC
SD: 12-3-1, 9-3 AFC

Cincy would be the #3 seed.

(edited by Zeruel on 8.12.09 1324)

(edited by Zeruel on 8.12.09 1329)

-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

-- July 2009 Ordained Reverend --
Mr Shh
Toulouse








Since: 9.1.02
From: Bergen County, NJ

Since last post: 2 days
Last activity: 2 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.49
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    My FIFA-like playoff system idea. I hate the outdated notion of two arbitrarily defined conferences (which a few teams have jumped. Baltimore even has a championship in each conference!) Remember a few years back when Indy and New England were clearly the two best teams in the league? That was my inspiration. It would have been awesome if they could have been on opposite sides of the bracket.

    Eight divisional champs + four next best teams.
    Top four div champs get 1st round bye.
    Tie-breakers are head-to-head, then SOS. The harder the SOS, the higher the seed

I dunno, I think a high-level segregation (as arbitrary as it might be) is good. It's been typical recently to have a major sports semi-final be better and more marquee than the actual final. I think that's just the price you pay.

I definitely think you should get rid of the four divisions within each conference. Under your proposal, depending on how your tie-breakers panned out, last year's Chargers would have ranked no higher than 17 out of 32, but they still would've gotten in to the playoffs. The Patriots would have gotten in, which is good, but there would have been at least four teams with better records than the Chargers that would have missed out, because now you're including NFC teams. Just my opinion, but I would keep the current seeding, bye and tie-breaker systems and just get rid of the divisions.



You askew my mirror. I askew yours.
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 1 day
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
I don't mind a geographical segregation, which is why I stripped the Divisions from their conferences and in my world, they would just be named American East, National West, and so on,

I guess that because I watch alot of international soccer which all the top flights run a single table, I'd rather have as few divisions as possible.

A happy medium is to just marry North to North, South to South and just have four divisions of 8 teams each: North, South, East, and West. Top two in each new division plus the next 4 best make the playoffs.

I might have to explore both ideas and just link to them through my sig. I'd hate to play more Fantasy Booking Football on here. We do enough it for the college game as it is.



-- 2006 Time magazine Person of the Year --

-- July 2009 Ordained Reverend --
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 1 day
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.59
Damn, good eye on that one.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.

It's too soon to talk about the Riders...
But Go Pack Go! (8-4, 2nd NFC North)
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 454 days
Last activity: 415 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.38
Zeruel is right to change tiebreakers. The current tiebreaker system is based on a schedule in which divisional opponents have 12 common games, and conference opponents either play each other or have 4 common games. You'd have to change the schedule if you got rid of conferences, and in turn the tiebreakers don't make as much sense.
I think the best schedule for this (talk of expanding to 18 games notwithstanding) would be the 6 divisional games, 4 games against the teams from another division, and 6 games based on last year's record (i.e. #2 team plays all the other teams that finished #2 in their divisions). This allows for greater fluctuation in Strength of Schedule, but I don't really see another way.

If you go to 4 divisions (each with 8 teams), I don't even know how you schedule. Can't really do 14 divisional games, can you? That would give the NFL all the problems that the college game has in terms of few reference points between divisions.
It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 12 days
Last activity: 3 days
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.32
Dallas's remaining schedule has them hosting the Chargers, going on the road to New Orleans, then to Washington (where the 'Skins are playing great football), and then at home to host Philly. And last year when the Cowboys hosted Philly, they got pasted.

I'd worry if I was a Cowboys fan. Losing 3 of 4 could have them out of the playoff race, unless the Giants start freefalling themselves (which is entirely possible, since they also get Philly, go to Washington, and get the Vikings to end the season).

Wonder if Arizona could swoop in and steal home field from Minnesota. The Cards have a REALLY weak schedule this month, while the Vikes get the Bengals and the Giants to end the season.

(edited by It's False on 8.12.09 1314)


All hail the Hypno-Toad
hansen9j
Andouille








Since: 7.11.02
From: Riderville, SK

Since last post: 4 days
Last activity: 1 day
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.59
    Originally posted by It's False
    I'd worry if I was a Cowboys fan. Losing 3 of 4 could have them out of the playoff race, unless the Giants start freefalling themselves (which is entirely possible, since they also get Philly, go to Washington, and get the Vikings to end the season).


Yeah, the Cowboys appear screwed. I'm amused by the fact that the same people that are seeing this awful schedule ahead of time are likely going to go with a simplistic "Romo can't win in December" theme.



It is the policy of the documentary crew to remain true observers and not interfere with its subjects.

It's too soon to talk about the Riders...
But Go Pack Go! (8-4, 2nd NFC North)
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
This is why I root for expansion for real to come quicker rather than later: with 36 teams, you could have six six-team divisions. Then...

- Each team plays each division foe home-and-away for ten games.
- Each team plays four other intraconference games.
- Each team plays four interconference games.

Amazingly, with six 6-team divisions, the math works out exactly right for an 18-game schedule. (I did the math - it's like the perfect set-up.)

I'd prefer this because it would pretty much eliminate any chance of a (in this case) 9-9 or 10-8 division champion, and breaking the division/non-division games to 10/8 is a more true test of getting a division champ than the current 6/10 set-up.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

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Since: 24.6.07
From: Greenacres FL

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.12
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
    This is why I root for expansion for real to come quicker rather than later: with 36 teams, you could have six six-team divisions. Then...

    - Each team plays each division foe home-and-away for ten games.
    - Each team plays four other intraconference games.
    - Each team plays four interconference games.

    Amazingly, with six 6-team divisions, the math works out exactly right for an 18-game schedule. (I did the math - it's like the perfect set-up.)

    I'd prefer this because it would pretty much eliminate any chance of a (in this case) 9-9 or 10-8 division champion, and breaking the division/non-division games to 10/8 is a more true test of getting a division champ than the current 6/10 set-up.


And with those 6 extra teams you have even more creampuffs and a dilution of talent all across the board. This may make the playoff scenarios flow nicer, but it certainly doesn't solve the issue of there being too many teams with similar records - if anything, the dilution of talent means we'd continue to see a bunch of .500 teams fighting for playoff berths, only MORE. And hey a 9-7 division champ just made the Super Bowl last year, they ended up belonging just as much as the 16-0 Patriots did.



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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by Psycho Penguin
    And with those 6 extra teams you have even more creampuffs and a dilution of talent all across the board. This may make the playoff scenarios flow nicer, but it certainly doesn't solve the issue of there being too many teams with similar records - if anything, the dilution of talent means we'd continue to see a bunch of .500 teams fighting for playoff berths, only MORE. And hey a 9-7 division champ just made the Super Bowl last year, they ended up belonging just as much as the 16-0 Patriots did.


Yep, it's a good thing that when they founded the NFL they started with 32 teams, isn't it? Otherwise if they had expanded from like 16 to 20 to 24 to 26 to 28 to 30 to 32 it would be nearly intolerable to watch.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

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Since: 21.2.02
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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.17
Yeah, the Cowboys appear screwed. I'm amused by the fact that the same people that are seeing this awful schedule ahead of time are likely going to go with a simplistic "Romo can't win in December" theme.

Well, if he can't, he can't. There is no reason for Dallas NOT to win those games. Except for Philly, of course

This is why I hope they adopt the playoff for NCAA Football. There is not a better playoff system in Team sports that works as well as the NFL. And there is still howling about it

FLEA




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Since: 2.1.02
From: Oconomowoc, WI

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Y!:
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.78
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Psycho Penguin
      And with those 6 extra teams you have even more creampuffs and a dilution of talent all across the board. This may make the playoff scenarios flow nicer, but it certainly doesn't solve the issue of there being too many teams with similar records - if anything, the dilution of talent means we'd continue to see a bunch of .500 teams fighting for playoff berths, only MORE. And hey a 9-7 division champ just made the Super Bowl last year, they ended up belonging just as much as the 16-0 Patriots did.


    Yep, it's a good thing that when they founded the NFL they started with 32 teams, isn't it? Otherwise if they had expanded from like 16 to 20 to 24 to 26 to 28 to 30 to 32 it would be nearly intolerable to watch.

You missed 31. That number sucked.
Psycho Penguin
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Since: 24.6.07
From: Greenacres FL

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.12
    Originally posted by JayJayDean
      Originally posted by Psycho Penguin
      And with those 6 extra teams you have even more creampuffs and a dilution of talent all across the board. This may make the playoff scenarios flow nicer, but it certainly doesn't solve the issue of there being too many teams with similar records - if anything, the dilution of talent means we'd continue to see a bunch of .500 teams fighting for playoff berths, only MORE. And hey a 9-7 division champ just made the Super Bowl last year, they ended up belonging just as much as the 16-0 Patriots did.


    Yep, it's a good thing that when they founded the NFL they started with 32 teams, isn't it? Otherwise if they had expanded from like 16 to 20 to 24 to 26 to 28 to 30 to 32 it would be nearly intolerable to watch.


Did you miss my entire point? When there was 16 teams, the lack of creampuff teams and 6-6 teams fighting for playoff berths were significantly lower, I bet. 32 is fine. 8 divisions of 4 teams each. Just don't let division winners get 1st round home games, I say.



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Since: 2.1.02
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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by Psycho Penguin
    Did you miss my entire point? When there was 16 teams, the lack of creampuff teams and 6-6 teams fighting for playoff berths were significantly lower, I bet. 32 is fine. 8 divisions of 4 teams each. Just don't let division winners get 1st round home games, I say.


When there were sixteen teams, only four teams made the playoffs.

From 1978 to 2001, there were 22 seasons (1981 and 1987 were strike shortened) where the NFL played 16 games with a three division set-up. Eight or nine-win teams won their division 12 times, roughly once every other year. Not only that, but six of those division champions came from four team divisions. Since 2002, there have been six eight or nine-win division champions in seven seasons, roughly one a year. It's simple math.

- Out of 88 division champions in a five or six-team division, six had nine or fewer wins. That's 6.81%.

- Out of 72 divison champions in a four-team divison, 12 had nine or fewer wins. That's 16.67%.

Four team-divisions increase the odds you'll get an eight or nine-win champion, because of the decrease in intradivision games. Last year's Cardinals ae a perfect example - they went 6-0 in the division and 3-7 against the rest of the league. I'm not saying they aren't deserving, because those are the rules to qualify for the playoffs. I just think it was more fair when there were 30 teams, and it will be more fair again if/when they get to 36 teams.





Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
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Since: 24.6.07
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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.12
They could have 4 8-team divisions now if they wanted ala the old MLB system and then just have 2 division winners and 4 wild card teams from each conference.



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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by Psycho Penguin
    They could have 4 8-team divisions now if they wanted ala the old MLB system and then just have 2 division winners and 4 wild card teams from each conference.


But scheduling-wise, that wouldn't work, because if you played each team in your division home-and-away you would have 14 intradivison games. You would have to unbalance the intradivison schedule, which is doing the opposite of improving things, IMO.



Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....

*snip*

Revenge of the Sith = one thumb up from me. Fuck shit. I want to tittie fuck your ass.
-- The Guinness. to Cerebus
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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.63
I think we can safely cross Pittsburgh off the Week 14 list



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Since: 24.6.07
From: Greenacres FL

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 1.12
I'm assuming I should be rooting for Miami over Jacksonville this weekend as a Ravens fan, especially since Miami's last 3 games after that are against the Texans, Titans, and Steelers.



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