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The W - Football - NFL AFTER WEEK 16 SPECTACULAR
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Mr. Boffo
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Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 428 days
Last activity: 389 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
NFL AFTER WEEK 16 SPECTACULAR

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

1. Indianapolis
2. Denver
3. Cincinnati
4. New England
5. Jacksonville
6. Pittsburgh
Out - Kansas City

New England and Cincinnati would switch if New England won and Cincinnati lost.
Pittsburgh and Kansas City would switch if Kansas City won, Pittsburgh lost, and San Diego lost.

But otherwise, the first round games will be Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati and Jacksonville @ New England.

NFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

This is entirely more screwed up. Right now, it's:

1. Seattle
2. Chicago
3. Tampa Bay
4. New York
5. Carolina
6. Washington
Out - Dallas

But if we assume that each game in the final week has two options that are equally likely, here is the table showing what is possible.

Team#1#2#3#4#5#6Total
Seattle100%100%
Chicago100%100%
Tampa Bay50%25%19.58%4.5%99.08%
New York31.25%43.75%18.75%6.25%100%
Carolina12.5%12.5%37.5%25%87.5%
Washington6.25%18.75%12.5%37.5%75%
Dallas14.79%23.63%38.42%

edit: found an error in the table that changed New York, Tampa Bay, and Dallas slightly.

For everyone else, it's time to start thinking about next year.

DRAFT ORDER RIGHT NOW
1. Houston
2. New Orleans
3. Green Bay
4. N.Y. Jets
5. San Francisco
6. Tennessee
7. St Louis
8. Arizona
9T. Detroit
9T. Tennessee
11. Oakland
12. Cleveland
13. Buffalo
14. Philadelphia
15. Baltimore
16. Miami
17. Minnesota
18. Atlanta
19. Kansas City
20. Dallas
21. San Diego
22. Carolina
23. Tampa Bay
24. New England
25T. N.Y. Giants
25T. Pittsburgh
27. Chicago
28. Cincinnati
29. Jacksonville
30. Denver
31. Seattle
32. Indianapolis
*Playoff team's draft order subject to change.

I have a thing that shows what the draft order could be after next week's games finish, but I ran out of time. I'll have to post it later. I apologize in advance for any errors I may make.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 28.12.05 1940)

In the real world, WWE believes that no matter what our race, religious creed or ethnic background in America, we all share the common bond of being Americans. American-Arabs are a part of the fabric of America, and they should be embraced by all of us.
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redsoxnation
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Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 456 days
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.66
I think the only question that matters is if Houston beats San Francisco while the Jets, Packers and Saints all lose, how does the 5 way multi-conference, multi-division tie break?



Any complaints about the preceding post can be directed at the time traveling aliens who edited it.
Gugs
Bierwurst








Since: 9.7.02
From: Sleep (That's where I'm a viking)

Since last post: 495 days
Last activity: 21 days
AIM:  
Y!:
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.79
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
    I think the only question that matters is if Houston beats San Francisco while the Jets, Packers and Saints all lose, how does the 5 way multi-conference, multi-division tie break?


It would go by strength of schedule, then divisional/conference tiebreakers, then coin flips. So...

1. San Francisco
2. Houston
3. New York
4. Green Bay
5. New Orleans



This will get added at the end of each post you make, below an horizontal line. This should preferably be kept to a small enough size.
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 16 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
ESPN's take on the 5-way mess: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2272110


    The tiebreaker for determining the draft's No. 1 spot, whether it's two teams tied for the dubious honor or five franchises, is each club's strength of schedule. Or, more accurately, their weakness of schedule. The 2005 records of each team's opponents would be totaled and the franchise that played the "easiest" schedule would land the first pick. And under that scenario, the displaced Saints could sneak into the top spot.

    New Orleans' opponents have an aggregate winning mark of just .507. Then, in order, comes Green Bay (.520), the Jets (.547), Houston (.556) and San Francisco (.573), according to the league. Final analysis of strength of schedule standings cannot be determined until after all Sunday's games are completed. But it is conceivable that the Texans, who have essentially led the race all year, could fade in the stretch if they defeat the 49ers.


    Originally posted by Gugs
    1. San Francisco
    2. Houston
    3. New York
    4. Green Bay
    5. New Orleans


According to ESPN.com, you have it the wrong way around.
1. Saints
2. Packers
3. J-E-T-S
4. Texans
5. 49ers

(edited by Zeruel on 27.12.05 1246)



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BigSteve
Pepperoni








Since: 23.7.04
From: Baltimore, MD

Since last post: 2818 days
Last activity: 2546 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.33
So what happens in the event of Redskins and Cowboys wins along with Giants, Panthers, and Bucs losses to create a five way tie at 10-6? I'm pretty sure that Washington wins the division and New York gets one of the Wild Cards, a I think Dallas would be the odd team out, but how does seeding shake out there?
JayJayDean
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

Since last post: 27 days
Last activity: 9 hours
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Y!:
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.69
    Originally posted by BigSteve
    So what happens in the event of Redskins and Cowboys wins along with Giants, Panthers, and Bucs losses to create a five way tie at 10-6? I'm pretty sure that Washington wins the division and New York gets one of the Wild Cards, a I think Dallas would be the odd team out, but how does seeding shake out there?


ACCORDING TO NFL.COM:

Washington can clinch division title with: 1) WAS win + NYG loss
AND
Tampa Bay can clinch division title with: 1) TB win, OR 2) CAR loss, OR 3) TB tie + CAR tie.

So Washington wins the NFC East and Tampa Bay wins the NFC South. The Bucs get the #3 seed because they defeated Washington 36-35 on 11/13 (when Gruden went for two and the win).

The Giants have clinched a playoff spot, so the last spot would be between Dallas and Carolina, and since the Cowboys were nice enough to beat the Panthers on Saturday Dallas would be in and Carolina would be home for the playoffs. The Giants would get the #5 seed based on their superior divisional record to Dallas.

1. Seattle
2. Chicago
3. Tampa Bay
4. Washington
5. N.Y. Giants
6. Dallas



"You know what you need?
Some new quotes in your sig.
Yeah, I said it."
-- DJFrostyFreeze

Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 428 days
Last activity: 389 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
Ah, finally done at work. Anyway, I wrote a program last night that looked at every possible outcome of the 16 games this week, and the draft order associated with it. (Math geeks know that that is 2^16, or 65536 possible combinations). Below was the result. A quick caveat. If two (or more) teams with the same record finish with the same SOS, it gives the higher pick to the team that is first alphabetically. I'm too lazy to modify it to properly give the spot to the team with the higher conference or divisional record where applicable.

TeamHigh RankLow Rank
Houston41
New Orleans61
New York Jets61
Green Bay71
San Francisco71
Tennessee112
Oakland124
Buffalo126
Detroit126
St Louis126
Arizona136
Cleveland137
Baltimore1412
Philadelphia1412
Atlanta1715
Miami1715
Minnesota1715
Dallas1918
Kansas City2618
San Diego2619
Tampa Bay2619
Washington2619
Carolina2719
New England2919
New York Giants2919
Pittsburgh2919
Chicago2923
Cincinnati2924
Jacksonville2924
Denver3230
Indianapolis3230
Seattle3230


Apologies if this shows up bad under a non-IE browser. FrontPage adds all this useless formatting. High Rank is the latest they could pick. Low Rank is the highest.

I then modified the program to only look at those possibilities where the 5 teams all finish at 3-13. Under those parameters, the printout for those 5 teams came out like this.
TeamHigh RankLow Rank
Green Bay52
Houston42
New Orleans11
New York Jets52
San Francisco53


So it said that New Orleans always gets the first pick if there is a five-way-tie at 3-13. I can't assure that the program is figuring properly, but I would be willing to base my personal reputation on this board (HA!) on them being at worst a coinflip away from the #1 pick. The caveat from earlier is moot because there would be no tiebreakers with NYJ, and New Orleans wins the tiebreaker with San Francisco (because of NO's 1-11 conference record). Notice also that this does not contradict the first printout that states that New York, Green Bay, and San Francisco can finish #1. What it does say is that they can't finish #1 if New Orleans loses.



In the real world, WWE believes that no matter what our race, religious creed or ethnic background in America, we all share the common bond of being Americans. American-Arabs are a part of the fabric of America, and they should be embraced by all of us.
Sec19Row53
Lap cheong








Since: 2.1.02
From: Oconomowoc, WI

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 10 hours
Y!:
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.92
I don't believe that tiebreakers come into play on draft order. You either have a different strength of schedule (SOS), or you have a coin flip.

I'm pretty sure that this is what the text that Zeruel quoted from ESPN says.
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 428 days
Last activity: 389 days
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
From http://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakers :

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.



In the real world, WWE believes that no matter what our race, religious creed or ethnic background in America, we all share the common bond of being Americans. American-Arabs are a part of the fabric of America, and they should be embraced by all of us.
ekedolphin
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Since: 12.1.02
From: Indianapolis, IN; now residing in Suffolk, VA

Since last post: 103 days
Last activity: 13 days
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 2.29
Gotta love the last couple weeks of the NFL regular season, 'cuz that's when all the numbers geeks show up.




"Yes, the new plan will still involve rocket skates."
--Nale, The Order of the Stick

Five-Time W of the Day (5/27/02; 7/3/02; 7/30/04; 8/28/04; 12/16/05)

The Only Five-Time (and Last) N.E.W. World Heavyweight Champion

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Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 5 days
Last activity: 11 hours
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.35
And the final word on the draft order (barring trades)

1. Houston
2. New Orleans
3. Tennessee
4. The Jets
5. Green Bay

San Fran and Oakland will be the 6 and 7 picks, but apparently the exact order hasn't been determined yet.


So Bush to Houston, from all accounts.....maybe the Packers draft AJ Hawk to shore up the defense? Or maybe trade down and amass as much help in the secondary as possible.



"Oh, gosh, you know, I'm not much on speeches, but it's so gratifying to leave you wallowing in the mess you've made. You're screwed, thank you, bye."
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 456 days
Last activity: 456 days
#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.71
Have to give the Texans credit: There were many chances over the last 5 weeks of the season where they could have screwed up and had a winning streak. They did slip up once against Arizona, but they had enough of a safety net to allow margin for error.
Of course, if the Texans had screwed up and won in overtime against the 49ers, it would have been interesting to see whether the Saints would draft Bush while still having Deuce coming back from injury, or would Bush have pulled an Elway/E. Manning and demand not to be taken by the Saints.
A few teams really screwed up there draft position the last week of the season (Packers, Jets, 49ers).



Any complaints about the preceding post can be directed at the time traveling aliens who edited it.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 5 days
Last activity: 11 hours
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.35
If I'm the Texans, I'm trading the #1 pick for a Herschel-esque bucket of draft picks. They could take Bush and then try to deal Davis, but they'd get a lot less in return since the other teams would know the Texans would be stuck with two premier backs.

Saints need a QB badly, so Leinart (or Vince Young, if he comes out) would be the best bet. Leinart doesn't seem like the kind of jerk who would hold out ala Eli Manning, and if the Saints end up moving to LA anyway, that works out great for him since he's already the king of SoCal.

Titans and Jets both could use help at RB, so they might be candidates to trade up for Bush. Failing that, taking D'Brickashaw wouldn't be too sexy, but it would shore up their O-lines for the next decade.

(edited by Big Bad on 2.1.06 0225)


"Oh, gosh, you know, I'm not much on speeches, but it's so gratifying to leave you wallowing in the mess you've made. You're screwed, thank you, bye."
Mr. Boffo
Scrapple








Since: 24.3.02
From: Oshkosh, WI

Since last post: 428 days
Last activity: 389 days
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.12
Here's what the program I made spit out for all the non-playoff teams.

TEAM W SOS
1. HOU 2 137
2. NO 3 134
3. TEN 4 131
4. NYJ 4 135
5. GB 4 136
6T. OAK 4 138 (coin toss decides the #6 seed)
6T. SF 4 138
8. BUF 5 128
9. DET 5 129
10. ARI 5 130
11. STL 6 124
12. CLE 6 130
13. BAL 6 134
14. PHI 6 136
15. ATL 8 126
16. MIA 9 117
17. MIN 9 124
18. DAL 9 134
19. SD 9 143
20. KC 10 129

That's supposed to be all lined up, but I can never get the PRE tag to work. If a mod comes here and fixes it, let me know how to get it right.
EDIT: Yeah, it looked fine at work (in IE), but at home (in Firefox), it's not lined up. Weird.

(edited by Mr. Boffo on 2.1.06 1740)


In the real world, WWE believes that no matter what our race, religious creed or ethnic background in America, we all share the common bond of being Americans. American-Arabs are a part of the fabric of America, and they should be embraced by all of us.
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
Moderator








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

Since last post: 16 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by Mr. Boffo
    That's supposed to be all lined up, but I can never get the PRE tag to work. If a mod comes here and fixes it, let me know how to get it right.


I guess it doesn't look lined up for you, but it does for me.

So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets?




The Catastrophic Annihilation War Room
"You want to tempt the wrath of the whatever from high atop the thing?" --Toby, West Wing

It's False
Scrapple








Since: 20.6.02
From: I am the Tag Team Champions!

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 6 hours
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.77
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets?


Jets. McNair will likely end up back in Tennessee, but after two shoulder surgeries, it'd be crazy to stick with Chad Pennington. It's time to hit the reset button and go with Leinart.




Sandy Jack sez Merry Christmas!
Jaguar
Knackwurst








Since: 23.1.02
From: Phoenix, AZ

Since last post: 175 days
Last activity: 175 days
#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.61
    Originally posted by It's False
      Originally posted by Zeruel
      So who do you all think gets Leinart first, the Titans or Jets?


    Jets. McNair will likely end up back in Tennessee, but after two shoulder surgeries, it'd be crazy to stick with Chad Pennington. It's time to hit the reset button and go with Leinart.



Why would Anywhere-But-Nawlins pass up the change to dump Brooks?



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