The Colts shouldn't scare any elite teams at this point unless they're bad on both sides of the ball, which would kind of eliminate them from being elite in the first place. If you've got a good D and can hold us like Jacksonville did, you can win even if your offense isn't great. If you've got a good offense and can shoot it out like Kansas City did, you can win even if your defense isn't great.
The Colts D is just non existent now. They may as well keep the defense home, let the opponents run against an empty field, and let the offense go right back out there. Then at least the opponent's D will get tired faster.
There are still two games to go, not one. In that scenario, Jags would have the inside track, but not have it clinched. If everything you've illustrated happens, and the Bills don't have a major letdown against SF, both teams would be 9-6.