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The W - Football - NCAA Div I-A Week 14 BCS Bowl Projections
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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
ACC (top 3): Last 5 conf champs, 1999-2000: FSU (National Champs, 1999), 2001: Maryland, 2002-2003: FSU
1. If two or all of the tied teams have not played each other, then the BCS bid goes to the highest ranked teams in the final BCS standings.
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Virginia Tech6-19-2***Clinched at least a share of the ACC Title; Will win it outright with a win over Miami; did not play VT
2Florida State6-28-3Did not play VT; Will claim share of the ACC title with a Miami win
3Miami, FL5-28-2Will claim a share of the ACC title, and probably the BCS bid, with a win over Virginia

Big XII: Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Nebraska (North), 2000: Oklahoma (South) (National Champs), 2001: Colorado (North), 2002: Oklahoma (South), 2003: Kansas State (North)
North (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Colorado4-47-4Big XII North Champion on Tiebreaker
2Iowa State4-46-5Lost to Colorado

South (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Oklahoma8-011-0Clinched Big XII South title
2Texas7-110-1Lost to Texas

Big East (top 4): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: VT, 2000-2002: Miami, FL (National Champs, 2001), 2003: WV and Miami, FL
Now, it comes down to BCS Standings between Pitt and 'Cuse
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1tPittsburgh4-27-3***Clinched share of the Big East Title. Will claim the BCS bid with win over USF
1tSyracuse4-26-5***Clinched share of the Big East Title. Will claim the BCS bid with a Pitt loss to USF and a higher BCS ranking over Pitt
1tWest Virginia4-28-3***Clinched share of the Big East Title
1tBoston College4-28-3***Clinched share of the Big East Title

Big Ten (top 3): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Wisconsin, 2000 (tie): Michigan and Northwestern and Purdue, 2001: Illinois, 2002 (tie): Iowa and Ohio State (National Champs), 2003: Michigan
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1tMichigan7-19-2****Clinched BCS bid and a share of the Big Ten title.
1tIowa7-19-2****Clinched share of Big Ten Title
3Wisconsin6-29-2Shot themselves in the foot

Pac-10 (top 2): Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Standford, 2000 (tie): Oregon and Oregon State and Washington, 2001: Oregon, 2002 (tie): USC and Washington State, 2003: USC (Co-National Champs)
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1USC7-011-0****Clinched Pac-10 Title; plays UCLA
2California7-19-1

SEC: Last 5 conf champs, 1999: Alabama (West), 2000: Florida (East), 2001: LSU (West), 2002: Georgia (East), 2003: LSU (west) (Co-National Champs)
East (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Tennessee7-19-2***SEC East Champions
2Georgia6-29-2Done with conf play

West (top 2):
rankteamconf
record
overallnotes
1Auburn8-011-0****Clinched SEC West title
2LSU6-29-2

BCS Top 10
1. USC (Pac-10 Champion)
2. Oklahoma (Big XII leader)
3. Auburn (SEC leader)
4. Cal (Pac-10)
5. Texas (Big XII)
6. Utah (Mountain West Champion)
---
7. Georgia (SEC)
8. Boise State (WAC Champion)
9. Louisville (CUSA Champion)
10. Miami FL (ACC)

Other Conference Leaders
ACC: Virginia Tech (#12 BCS)
Big East: Pitt (BCS #23)
Big Ten: Michigan (Co-champion) (BCS #14)

BCS Bowl Projections
Orange (BCS #1 vs BCS #2): USC (Pac-10 Champion) vs Oklahoma (Big XII leader)

Sugar (SEC vs At-large): Auburn (SEC Leader) vs Virginia Tech (ACC Leader, at-large)

Fiesta (Big XII vs At-large): Utah (Mountain West Champion, at-large) vs Pitt (Big East Leader, at-large)*They lost their champ to the BCS #2 slot, they choose second from the at-large pool)

Rose (Big Ten Champ vs Pac-10 Champ): Michigan (Big Ten co-champion) vs Cal (Pac-10 at-large) *They lost their champ to the BCS #1 slot, they choose first from at-large pool)

Texas is stood up at the alter.





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thecubsfan
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Since: 10.12.01
From: Aurora, IL

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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00

    1t Syracuse 4-2 6-5 ***Clinched share of the Big East Title. Will claim the BCS bid with a Pitt loss to USF and a higher BCS ranking over Pitt


ESPN made a big point of noting Pitt's coach has a Coach's Poll vote while Syracuse's does not, so if Pitt loses and it comes down to BCS ranking, Pitt still kinda has control of it's own destiny.



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Since: 29.1.02
From: PA

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#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 10.00
1t Michigan 7-1 (9-2)***Clinched BCS bid and a share of the Big Ten title.
1t Iowa 7-1 (9-2)***Clinched share of Big Ten Title.


I still don't get this. Michigan beat Iowa early on in conference play, yet they share the title? 2002 was perfectly understandable, as Iowa and tOSU didn't play each other and there was no way to crown one over the other. But when one team holds a decisive head-to-head victory - Isn't this how the pros work it all out, on tiebreakers like this? And then there's that lovely fiasco of a Big East. Pitt might get the conference championship for beating a non-conference opponent in December. Sweeeeeeeet.

My favorite part of all of this, though, is that we could theoretically wind up with three undefeated teams come January. If those predictions for bowl games stay, we could have the winner of USC/Oklahoma, Auburn, and Utah all with perfect records. And we've solved absolutely nothing.

Oh...,

    {Big XII}South:
    2 Texas 7-1 (10-1) Lost to Texas

Dang, I've heard about teams beating themselves with mistakes and that, but to cost yourself a shot at the National Title Picture/Mess is remarkable! :)



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Since: 24.7.02

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#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.60
    Originally posted by StegDutchie
    {Big XII}South:
    2 Texas 7-1 (10-1) Lost to Texas


      Dang, I've heard about teams beating themselves with mistakes and that, but to cost yourself a shot at the National Title Picture/Mess is remarkable! :)



And yet, somehow I can envision Mack Brown screwing up that way.

Actually, there is the possibility of 4 undefeated teams, as Boise State will probably be unbeaten after they play in a minor bowl. The BCS is very fortunate that Louisville gave up the lead late against Maimi in the Orange Bowl, or else they would actually have a legitimite national title game argument.

On some of the minor bowls: With FSU and W. Virginia locked in the Gator, that puts Va. Tech/Miami loser in the Peach Bowl. Extra incentive to root for Va. Tech this weekend, as it would be a Peach Bowl involving Miami/Florida on New Years Eve. For New Years Eve, that would be quality programming.

And, what will be everyone's favorite Bowl Game: The Hawaii Bowl. I don't care if it is Hawaii vs. UAB, it is a Bowl Game on X-Mas Eve Night. Finally, a true Degenerate Gambler Bowl. Of course, after the Syracuse/BC game this past weekend, BC might be well qualified for this bowl based on their past history involving degenerate gambling, a history at least a few BC alumni had cross their minds during the BCS Choke.

(edited by redsoxnation on 29.11.04 2305)

(quoting fixed - thecubsfan)

(edited by thecubsfan on 30.11.04 1407)

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Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

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#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.03
Syracuse is 6-5 and yet still have part of the Big East title? I know their conference record is tied with everyone, but shouldn't overall records play SOME role in determining tiebreakers?

COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEEDS A PLAYOFF!!!! [/broken record] If only it was like Canadian university football, where we have a playoff that results in a classic like last Sunday's Vanier Cup where Laval beat Sasketchewan.....7-1. It was actually the worst football game of all time.



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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Actually, one of the other potential scenarios is this:

- USC beats UCLA
- Oklahoma loses to Colorado
- Auburn loses to Tennessee
- Cal beats Southern Miss

Theoretically, a #1/#2 matchup would be a USC/Cal Pac-10 rematch,



dunkndollaz
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Since: 3.1.02
From: Northern NJ

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#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
Screw the BCS and all of it's convolutions - the potential Bowl Game that I am most looking forward to is the 12/31 Liberty Bowl featuring Boise St. vs Louisville. The over/under on that game will have to be 100 and I would be tempted to bet the over.



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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Syracuse is 6-5 and yet still have part of the Big East title? I know their conference record is tied with everyone, but shouldn't overall records play SOME role in determining tiebreakers?


No argument from me. Every conference has different tie-breaking procedures. The problem with using overall record is that you can't control what some other cupcake non-conf teams other teams play. If The Orange went out and had North Texas, UTEP, and Army for non-conf games, people would then complain that their 7-4 record would be full of cupcakes and doesn't count.


    Originally posted by Big Bad
    COLLEGE FOOTBALL NEEDS A PLAYOFF!!!! [/broken record]


Yup, yup, yup. I love how the I-A presidents swear that a playoff will cause untold damage on the players and their studies, but I-AA, II, III, and NAIA all have playoffs, and *gasp* their players lead full and normal lives.

A four week playoff, one week after week 15 of the football season is very do-able. A system like JayJayDean or mine would work very well. I'm going to adapt my system for this year, and so far, my system ran out of 9-win teams to fill the 24 team field. That included 15 conference champions or co-champions, most of which had less than 8-wins.




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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.65
Here's where my system would be headed into this week's games.

* - clinched conference title

AUTOMATIC BIDS:
ACC - Virginia Tech (9-2)
Big East - *Syracuse (6-5) via tiebreaker see below
Big Ten - *Michigan (9-2) via tiebreaker, def. Iowa
Big XII - Oklahoma (11-0)
C-USA - *Louisville (9-1)
MAC - Miami-OH (8-3) via tiebreaker, def. Toledo
MWC - *Utah (11-0)
Pac-10 - *USC (11-0)
SEC - Auburn (11-0)
Sun Belt - *North Texas (7-4)
WAC - *Boise State (11-0)

AT-LARGE BIDS:
California (9-1)
Texas (10-1)
Georgia (9-2)
Miami-FL (8-2)
LSU (9-2)
Iowa (9-2)
Tennessee (9-2)
Florida State (8-3)
Wisconsin (9-2)

Big East tiebreaker: Using head-to-head games between the four tied teams, Syracuse and Pittsburgh were 2-1, while BC and West Virginia were 1-2. Syracuse def. Pittsburgh head-to-head...was that SO hard?

ROUND ONE MATCHUPS:
#13 Iowa vs. #20 North Texas
#14 Michigan vs. #19 Syracuse
#15 Tennessee vs. #18 Miami-OH
#16 Florida State vs. #17 Wisconsin

ROUND TWO MATCHUPS:
#1 USC vs. #16/#17 winner
#2 Oklahoma vs. #15/#18 winner
#3 Auburn vs. #14/#19 winner
#4 California vs. #13/#20 winner
#5 Texas vs. #12 Virginia Tech
#6 Utah vs. #11 LSU
#7 Georgia vs. #10 Miami-FL
#8 Boise State vs. #9 Louisville



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Since: 25.2.04
From: Keystone State

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.28
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    I love how the I-A presidents swear that a playoff will cause untold damage on the players and their studies, but I-AA, II, III, and NAIA all have playoffs, and *gasp* their players lead full and normal lives.


Well, they can't go and tell the truth, can they? The playoff system would rob the university of money. Even if money gets split, it's not as much as a home game for either team. If you go to the neutral site (which I've seen debated) then you rob two teams out of home games (unless you add games on to the season, which is even more fun).

I've done the money run after PSU home games with my boss enough times to know that if those armed guards weren't there, I would never have to work again. It's a little depressing to know that I'm most likely holding more money than I'll ever see at one time.

It could be argued that if you get far enough in the playoffs (and win the national championship) then you'll make enough money, but what about those teams who lose right away? It would make more sense (financially) to go to the Insight Bowl and make $750,000 in one day. Plus, with the revenue sharing of the conferences (Big 10 does it, I imagine other do, as well) every school is hoping every other school goes to some kind of bowl game.

Of course, I'm convinced that if they found a way to make more money with a playoff system, if would be implemented, number of games in a season be damned (as long as it's not as many as the NFL).
Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
And here's mine, which looks similar to JJD:

Automatic Bids, Conference Champions:

ACC (1): Virginia Tech (ACC Leader 9-2 BCS #12)
Big East (4): *Pittsburgh (Big East Co-champs 7-3 BCS #23), *West Virginia (Big East Co-champs 8-3 BCS n/a, Coach 158pts), *Boston College (Big East Co-champs 8-3 BCS n/a, Coach 131pts), *Syracuse (Big East Co-champs 6-5 BCS n/a, Coach 1)
Big Ten (2): *Iowa (Big Ten Co-champs BCS #13), *Michigan (Big Ten Co-champs 9-2 BCS #14)
Big XII (1): Oklahoma (Big XII Leader 11-0)
CUSA (1): *Louisville (CUSA Champions 9-1 BCS #9)
MAC (1): *Winner of Miami OH/Toledo (MAC Champion 8-3 BCS n/a, Coach 5)
MWC (1): *Utah (MWC Champions 11-0)
Pac-10 (1): *USC (Pac-10 Champions 11-0)
SEC (1): Auburn (SEC Leader 11-0)
Sun Belt (1): *North Texas (Sun Belt Champion 7-4, Coach 2)
WAC (1): *Bosie State (WAC Champions 11-0)

Automatic Bids, Top 8 BCS (Get 1st round bye):
#4 Cal (Pac-10 9-1)
#5 Texas (Big XII 10-1)
#7 Georgia (SEC 9-2)

At-large Bids:
Miami FL (ACC 8-2 BCS #10)
LSU (SEC 9-2 BCS #11)
Tennessee (SEC 9-2 BCS #15)
Wisconsin (Big Ten 9-2 BCS #17)
FSU (ACC 8-3 BCS #16)
Virginia (ACC 8-3 BCS #18)

Round one:

#24 Virginia (ACC) @ #9 *Louisville (CUSA)
#23 FSU (ACC) @ #10 *Virginia Tech (ACC)
#22 Wisconsin (Big Ten) @ #11 *Iowa (Big Ten)
#21 Tennessee (SEC) @ #12 *Michigan (Big Ten)
#20 LSU (SEC) @ #13 *Pittsburgh (Big East)
#19 Miami FL (ACC) @ #14 *West Virginia (Big East)
#18 *Syracuse (Big East) @ #15 *Boston College (Big East)
#17 *North Texas (Sun Belt) @ #16 *Miami OH or Toledo (MAC)

Round Two:

Match A -- Lowest seed @ #1 *USC (Pac-10)
Match B -- 2nd Lowest seed @ #2 Oklahoma (Big XII)
Match C -- 3rd Losest seed @ #3 Auburn (SEC Leader)
Match D -- 4th Lowest seed @ #4 Cal (Pac-10)
Match E -- 4th Highest seed @ #5 Texas (Big XII)
Match F -- 3rd Highest seed @ #6 *Utah (MWC)
Match G -- 2nd Highest seed @ #7 Georgia (SEC)
Match H -- Highest seed @ #8 *Bosie State (WAC)

Quarter Finals (Held at the Orange, Rose, Fiesta & Sugar bowls, and they choose which bracket to host in that order):
Winner of Match H vs Winner of Match A
Winner of Match F vs Winner of Match C

Winner of Match G vs Winner of Match B
Winner of Match E vs Winner of Match D

Semis (Held at the Orange and Rose Bowls):
Winner of H/A vs Winner of F/C
Winner of G/B vs Winner of E/D

Final (Held at the Orange bowl)

(edited by Zeruel on 30.11.04 1133)



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Since: 27.2.03
From: Seattle, Washington

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.22

    Quarter Finals (Held at the Orange, Rose, Fiesta & Sugar bowls, and they choose which bracket to host in that order):
    Winner of Match H vs Winner of Match A
    Winner of Match F vs Winner of Match C

    Winner of Match G vs Winner of Match B
    Winner of Match E vs Winner of Match D

    Semis (Held at the Orange and Rose Bowls):
    Winner of H/A vs Winner of F/C
    Winner of G/B vs Winner of E/D

    Final (Held at the Orange bowl)


Setting aside all of the other issues with this scenario, how does this logistically work. You're talking about three games at the Orange Bowl, so realistically this schedule would have to be three weeks, because of the field concerns.

So, assuming this takes three weeks, you've got games scheduled in December for 12/11 (quarterfinals), 12/18 (semis), and January 1 (finals). That actually works, until you consider that you're quite possibly sending a team from Tempe to Pasadena to Miami, with a break for Christmas. OR, if you're lucky, three whole weeks in Miami.

If I'm Georgia, that could mean flying from Athens, to Tempe, back home to Athens, to Pasadena, back home to Athens, break for Christmas, back to Athens, then flying to Miami.

If I'm Joe Averagefan, I don't have that kind of cash. Nor would I be able to take that much time from work. And if I'm a university, the expenses involved would seem to make this whole thing, at best, a break-even scenario.

I don't know how the other divisions work their playoff system-although I'd imagine it's more of a straight forward system without any bowls to worry about-so maybe these are issues that have been dealt with before. But I *do* know tha the logistics of making this work with, say, a University of Dayton (enrollment around 7,000 students) is much different than dealing with an Ohio State (enrollment well over 100,000).

Maybe I'm putting too much thought in this, I dunno.



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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
The other divisions use home games until the Final, which is at neutral ground, like the Stag Bowl.

If ANY I-A playoff system will work, it will have to include the BCS bowls in such a manner. I'm just being realistic






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Since: 2.1.02
From: Seattle, WA

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#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.65
    Originally posted by Battlezone
    Setting aside all of the other issues with this scenario, how does this logistically work.


I dunno how Z would do it, but assuming I controlled the universe, this would be my schedule. I would eliminate conference championship games, or move them to finish the regular season the last Saturday before Thanksgiving. You want to be in a Money-Grubbing Conference with a Championship Game? Fine, just back up your rivalry weekend a week.

(All games played at home site of higher seed)
11/27 FIRST-ROUND GAMES
12/04 SECOUND-ROUND GAMES
12/11 QUARTERFINALS
12/18 SEMIFINALS DOUBLEHEADER from the Superdome in New Orleans (or maybe the Georgia Dome, but who doesn't love New Orleans?)
01/01 NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP from Orange Bowl, rotating with Rose and Fiesta Bowls



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Since: 2.1.02
From: East TN

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.24
I'm all for a playoff, but I offer a third scenario. The first part is reducing Division 1-A to 96 teams in 8 conferences of twelve teams with 6-team subdivisions. This needs to be done because there are entirely too many D1-A teams that are hopelessly uncompetitive (Vanderbilt, Duke, I'm looking at you), diluting the credibility of the Division as a whole. I realize that's more or less a shitty pipe dream, getting rid of the offal, but it needs to be done. All 8 conferences have a championship game and the winners go to a three-round playoff. The four original "BCS bowls" host the playoffs; rotate the championship game as usual, with the championship site sitting out the first two rounds. The rest of the bowl-eligible schools go play in the meaningless bowl games they would have played in anyway; fan support for college football programs will keep those games financially vital.



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Zeruel
Thirty Millionth Hit
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Since: 2.1.02
From: The Silver Spring in the Land of Mary.

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#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.05
What 21 schools would you off?

A quick look of the divisions show that the following could be gone:

Big East(-1): Temple
MAC(-8): Kent State, Ohio, Buffalo, UCF, Western Central and Eastern Michigans, Ball state; 6 teams left, not including the realignment sch for 2005;
Sun Belt(-9): see ya in I-AA
WAC(-3): SJ State, Rice, Nevada; 7 teams left

ACC has 12 teams including BC
Big East/MAC merge for 11 team league, absorbs Navy
Big Ten will absorb Notre Dame
Big XII is ok with 12
CUSA has 11, takes one of the 8 MWC schools
Pac-10 needs 2 schools from MWC
SEC is ok with 12
WAC/MWC merge; 7 WAC schools + 5 that haven't been plucked away from MWC.




(edited by Zeruel on 30.11.04 1542)



The Catastrophic Annihilation War Room
And now, for a limited time only, THE BAND IS OUT ON THE FIELD!!!"

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Since: 2.1.02
From: East TN

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.24
There are 117 D1-A schools now? I can remember when there were 105 and *that* was too many.

The schools/conferences you list are pretty much the ones that need to go. Vandy and Duke, too, maybe Baylor from the big conferences. I also like the idea of doing a switch of the best D-IAA school with the worst D-IA school over a five year period, but that might be asking too much. All of these ideas, including any playoff system, would require the conferences giving a lot of power to the NCAA, which has been the problem for a while now.



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Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

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#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
    Originally posted by rockstar
    There are 117 D1-A schools now? I can remember when there were 105 and *that* was too many.
And Florida Atlantic, Florida International are on the way...



whatever
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Since: 12.2.02
From: Cleveland, Ohio

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.33
    Originally posted by Zeruel
    What 21 schools would you off?

    A quick look of the divisions show that the following could be gone:

    MAC(-8): Kent State

Ummm, if you include Kent State you might as well include Akron in there too. Even though they had a good year this year, it is certainly not the norm for them.



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Since: 16.4.02
From: Green Bay, WI

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#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.25
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    Originally posted by Zeruel
    Wisconsin...Shot themselves in the foot...


Boy, you ain't kidding. At least we got the Outback Bowl...against 8th-ranked Georgia. Uh-oh...



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