We are very close now, so with hours to go, I want to know who will be watching it, and who will win.
This will be the first UFC PPV that I personally have ever bought, having gone to a friend's house for some of the other shows. It should be a fine show with a great-sounding semi main of Kenny "KenFlo" Florian vs. Joe "Daddy" Stevenson.
As for a prediction, I will root for Lesnar to win, and in fact I predict that Brock will win in the 4th round via "ground and pound." But it could really go either way.
As for the rest, just picking the winners:
Florian over Stevenson Gonzaga over Hendricks Maia over Nate "The ROCK" Quarry Gurgel over Riley Matt "Mr. Intensity" Brown over anyone he fights.
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Absolutely buying it. I've been arranging for folks to come over for it since the day it was rumored.
I'd be surprised if Lesnar got the win in the fourth round or later; it seems like later in the fight will favor Couture's experience. If Lesnar is strong and young enough to beat and finish Couture, it's not going to be because of wearing Couture down, it's going to be because of overwhelming him early (no later than the third round). By the fourth round, if Lesnar has Couture already beat, he's just going to use his superior ground wrestling to keep himself in dominant position and ride out the decision.
I predict Lesnar by decision, in a fight that will in hindsight be boring as dirt but will be AWESOME as it happens.
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Couture. Lesnar's what, 2-1 in his MMA career, and 1-1 in UFC? Couture is 16-8, and has been fighting in MMA since 1997. I think it's pretty obvious Lesnar didn't get this title match based on merit. I'm gonna go with the statistics here-- Couture beats the heck out of him, and honestly, if I were watching, I wouldn't be rooting for Lesnar anyway.
"If I let myself get hung up on doing things that had any actual chance of success, I'd never do anything!"
On paper, it looks like Couture should have an easy win. But that's just because Lesnar doesn't have a lot on paper to compare to yet. But think about it, every one of Couture's usual physical advantages are trumped by Lesnar. He's a biggest, faster, stronger version of Couture, albeit with only the raw talent and only a fraction of the mental game.
Lesnar's obvious weakness is submissions, and Couture's never been much of a submission guy. Couture's standup is decent, but he usually depends on his clinching and dirty boxing to be effective. That's just not something I see being effective against a behemoth like Lesnar.
It's a cliche by now to say that Couture is a master game-planner. If he's going to win this fight, he's not going to do it with his usual strengths. I'd bet a lot of money that a vast majority of his training has been on applying submissions from the guard.
Don't get me wrong with all this, I still think COuture is going to pull it off. I just don't think people should disregard Lesnar here because he's inexperienced. Against a guy like Nogueira, Lesnar would have absolutely no chance. But he negates enough of Couture's strengths to make the matchup way less one-sided than one would initially think.
While I'm excited for the outcome of this fight, I don't think it's going to be all that spectacular. There will be thrilling moments, but I doubt I'll ever be wanting to watch it again outside of a highlight package.
The fight I'm really amped up to see is Florian vs Stevenson. Both of these guys are fantastic and have the ability to go hard for 3 rounds without letting up. I've gotta go with Florian, but Stevenson winning would in no way be an upset.
I'm also hoping to see another slick submission by Demian Maia. That guy is really fun to watch.
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I just watched Kelly Pavlik get utterly dismantled by Bernard Hopkins, despite a huge advantage and age and a skill-set that seemed poised to give Hopkins a lot of trouble. I think the dynamic is very similar here (B-Hop's and Couture's dissimilarities notwithstanding) and I think it will be an easier-than-expected win for Randy.
Holy fuck shit motherfucker shit. Read comics. Fuck shit shit fuck shit I sold out when I did my job. Fuck fuck fuck shit fuck. Sorry had to do it....
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Randy can go in there with the same plan that Mir had: Take punishment for a while and wait for Brock to make a mistake. Difference being that Brock is almost certainly making fewer mistakes. That said, Couture will hold on and make him tap to something he wasn't ready for. Randy by submission late in the third.
My other predictions...
KenFlo over Stevenson by decision Gabriel Gonzaga submits Josh Hendricks Demian Maia submits Nate Quarry Tamdan "Barn Cat" McCrory KOs Dustin Hazelett
Matt Brown loses. He looks and acts like a killer but he's really shown nothing.
I am actually going to go watch this at a local establishment. This is the first UFC event I've went to watch since renting them from the video store back when Dan Severn was still doing it and wasn't aloud on PPV.
I'm feeling, after watching the build up, Brock comes off as cocky yet freaking confident about taking out the "old man".
Way I look at it is if that "old man" can do this at his age then I am not calling him "old". That guy could probable right hook a Hummer and it would fall apart let alone look at it.
I don't know much about the under card so I'll go with the predictions by Brian and laugh when I when some one gets walloped in a lop sided fight.
I love how the WWE.com is decked out in advertising for this thing. I think I'm going to go screen cap it.
Lesnar can win this fight, but my feeling is that Couture will take it. See, the thing is, Couture is the smartest fighter in the world when it comes to MMA. Lesnar has shown in his fights and his training that he's content with being an amateur wrestler competing in MMA, with no focus on being a complete MMA fighter. Which is fine for guys like Heath Herring, who for the life of him simply cannot handle wrestlers, but will catch up with him when all's said and done. Couture via Split Decision (Cecil Peoples will give it to Lesnar)
OTHER predictions: Kenny Florian def. Joe Stevenson via Unanimous Decision - Then maybe that overrated chubbo Penn will defend his Lightweight Title! Yeah, as if. Josh Hendricks def. Gabriel Gonzaga via 2nd Round submission in an "upset" - I say "upset" because the guy's biggest accomplishment in his career was revealing just how lax Mirko Cro Cop became in his training, conditioning, and focus. Damian Maia def. Nate Quarry via 2nd Round Submission - And it's going to be one of those submissions that makes you go "WOW." This actually has potential to be Fight of the Night. Maia's one of the most fun BJJ guys to watch in MMA. BARN CAT~! def. Dustin Hazelett via 1st Round KO - Because something's seriously whacked when your fighting game when you suffer a KO/stoppage loss to Josh "Lay 'N Pray" Koscheck. Seriously, Dustin.
Welcome home, men of the 2nd Bn, 127th Inf, 32d "Red Arrow" Brigade, WI Army Nat'l Guard! Good luck to those down south.
Ever since me and my NWA Wisconsin cohorts started providing video production services to the National Combat Association, we've kinda been getting into this MMA thing.
(NCA's Pat Berry is apparently booked for the UFC 92 PPV. Woohoo!)
We'll be checking this out at a local establishment. I say Couture by submission as well...I just don't think Lesnar has the experience to deal with a vet's ground game, even if that's not Couture's strong suit (as excellently pointed out by some of you above posters.)
Over/under on Undertaker sighting in the crowd: 1 1/2. :-)
According to jayski, NASCAR has no plans to further discipline Gilliland, which begs the question, if turning a guy nose-first into the wall at 190 mph doesn't get you at least a one race-suspension, what do you have to do to actually get suspended by ...