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The W - Random - Kentucky Derby Picks
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Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1276 days
Last activity: 1073 days
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
I doubt many people really get too deep into the derby, and realisitcally I spend about an hour a year on horse racing. But I always pick a winner going into each Triple Crown race and always pick somebody in the middle on the odds. I have hit exatly three timesm and I never put money on it....so that irked me when I picked War Emblem at 25-1 back in 2002.

This year, I'm going with Lion Heart at 10-1 a nose in front of Imperialism at 15-1. All of this, of course, is just a hunch.





The election is still six months away. But Kerry's reputation has been built over 40 years. And the voters seem to be sniffing it out.- David S. Broder
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Tomboy
Chipolata








Since: 6.3.03
From: Jersey

Since last post: 3222 days
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#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.03
Lion Heart's got a great post spot. I like Tapit but he's got a horrible post. Maybe he's that good of a horse that he can overcome it. I'll take Action This Day as a longey. Of course, I may be preoccupied trying to read the itty-bitty adds on the jockey's legs. BAHAHAHA

In the Oaks, I'd like to see Halfbridled step up to the postgate and get a win this year. A.P. Adventure is the sentimental fav for me.

Sure to be a great day of racing.



~Tomboy, 2003 Survival Football Co-Champion
Bullitt
Shot in the dark








Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.26
I don't know much about the ponies, but I always get excited for the Derby.

I'm looking at Smarty Jones at 9-2 from the 15 spot.





Making it Happen Since 1971 (agentzero.blogspot.com)
krakken2000
Kishke








Since: 31.10.02
From: seattle

Since last post: 2007 days
Last activity: 1734 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.10
I'm taking lion Heart (and by take I mean not place any money and instead forget I chose him until Saturday afternnon when I realize "oh yeah the derby was on, I wonder who won?")



www.flamingboxofstuff.com
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 486 days
Last activity: 486 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.59
Much as DEAN prides himself on being a degenerate drunk, I pride myself on being a degenerate gambler. On the assumption of no scratches, a good/fast track depending upon whether the late day thunderstorm hits Louisville (if it goes muddy or sloppy, that changes a bit), and without seeing whether Churchill is being rigged to favor speed horses, RSN's Derby Picks:

Its the year of the bomber. I'd go Birdstone with Prado at 50-1. Considering the year Prado is having and the Zito connection, I'd take them on a mule if I was getting 50-1. Probably will try to get a nice price by boxing the 13-5 exacta (always beware Bailey/Baffert big race), with a few bucks thrown on Wimbledon to win as well at 15-1 (though I doubt it goes off at more than 7-1. For those gambling of course, I'd bet both of these through Churchill or through California, as Maryland will probably have more in the pool for Prado, and Bailey will have the odds sink heavily in New York, with Prado's odds lowering as well since he's riding out of there). Now, John Velazquez is also riding well, thus I'd throw him into the trifecta pool, going 13-5-17, which should easily be a 4 figure payout. Wheel the tri to cover yourself of course. Maybe throw a few bucks on Velasquez in the exactas as well, just to cover yourself and possibly cause a nice payout should a 13-17 exacta come up. As always, hope for the chalk to finish out of the money, thus causing much higher exacta and trifecta payouts.

(edited by redsoxnation on 29.4.04 1758)

(edited by redsoxnation on 29.4.04 1758)

Celtic Pride
1946-April 28, 2004
R.I.P.
Tenken347
Boudin blanc








Since: 27.2.03
From: Parts Unknown

Since last post: 21 hours
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#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.31
Just going by the look of the horses, I'd probably go with Wimbledon. I generally look for a horse with a big chest, because the Derby is such a long race.
Bullitt
Shot in the dark








Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.26
    Originally posted by Tenken347
    I generally look for a horse with a big chest


That's odd, I generally look for a girl with a...nevermind.

Quinela box the 8-7-11-15, or exacta box the 5-7-15. I'll decide tomorrow morning.





Making it Happen Since 1971 (agentzero.blogspot.com)
CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

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#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.07
    Originally posted by Tenken347
    Just going by the look of the horses, I'd probably go with Wimbledon. I generally look for a horse with a big chest, because the Derby is such a long race.
SCRATCH ;-)



Kings16
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CRZ
Tenken347
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Since: 27.2.03
From: Parts Unknown

Since last post: 21 hours
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#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.32
These things happen.
David Adams
Boerewors








Since: 2.1.02
From: NJ

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#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.55
Weird. No Baffert, Bailey or Lucas in the Derby.

I'll throw in some cash for Tapit. Bad post, but I think he'll come through.
LinearRO
Bauerwurst








Since: 5.1.02
From: West Los Angeles, California

Since last post: 1235 days
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#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.55
With Wimbledon and St. Averil out, Imperialism, who looked very good live with his 100 in the Santa Anita Derby has a good shot. He likes to come off the pace, and does it very well. He has to hope, however, that the leader does not get to set an easy pace like War Emblem did in 2002. Truthfully, Imperialism had the Santa Anita Derby if Rock Hard Ten did not jam him in the lane (Rock Hard Ten was disqualified for that) and it is hard to doubt the skills of trainer Kristin Mulhall. Worried though because he does not have regular rider and leading money man Victor Espinoza. Kent Desormeaux is no slouch, but he is not Espinoza (riding Borrego).

Santa Anita Derby winner Castledale was a total surprise with his 103 victory at 30/1 odds. Problem is, it is hard to get a lot of confidence when he has only two dirt races under his belt. Granted he has the right to get better, but this is likely not the place to try that, and his middle pack style may haunt him as he breaks from the outside and he could get trapped early. Perhaps a worthy longshot if he gets a wet track or if you think he will step up once more. His last two workouts suggest he is ready for his best.

And then there is the undefeated Smarty Jones. 107 and 108 in his last two starts but one was ungraded stakes and the other was in an off track condition, but if the track is wet tomorrow, this could benefit him, and four straight bullet workouts indeed inspire.

Finally, there is The Cliff's Edge, who leads the field with the high 111 Beyer. Looks good even with the extra furlong stretch. Like Imperialism, he seems to like to give them ten lengths and save energy before striking in the lane, but that is one extended lane so it is a bit of a dangerous game he is playing. Still, he has taken both of his races at Churchill Downs, both graded efforts, and his breezing workouts suggest he will have his best game. Of course, wished there was a better price. Still, with what I have seen, I think in a rallying duel, Imperialism would be able to outlast The Cliff's Edge, and there seems to be sufficient speed up front to allow for a back of the pack runner to take the roses.

Imperialism.



I know what you're thinking. Did I fire seven shots or six? Well to tell you the truth in all of this confusion I've sorta forgotten myself, so you have to ask yourself one question. Do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?
-Whose Line is it Anyway: Scenes From a Hat (Ryan Stiles as Carol Channing).
SC
Potato korv








Since: 11.12.01
From: Valparaiso, IN

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#12 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.84
I got no clue about this stuff, but if somehow I end up being right, I'll come back and claim to be the king of horse racing.

I'll go with Borrego.



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cubs.org

DrewDewce
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Derby City

Since last post: 25 days
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Y!:
#13 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.74
    Originally posted by redsoxnation

    Its the year of the bomber. I'd go Birdstone with Prado at 50-1. Considering the year Prado is having and the Zito connection, I'd take them on a mule if I was getting 50-1.


I've been telling people all week, and at the Wing Ding, and at Oaks that Birdstone is the pick, I don't care what the odds. If this race (and the Derby can't really be called just a race) was held two months ago, Birdstone would have been the favourite. Yes, he's had a rough Spring, but he's due and working well at Churchill. I'll have money across the board on him, and will DEFINITELY have him in my exotics.

We hit 3 trifectas at Oaks, and I was talked out of my horse for a 4th. (3 guys picking 4 horses to box). That damn 2nd place horse KILLED us in the Oaks.

5 to put in your trifectas, and/or superfectas

Birdstone, Borrego, Friends Lake, Tapit, Master David

Edit: According to WAVE 3, Birdstone is down to 15-1, so the traditional Louisville Zito Love is in full swing. Expect Minister Eric (with Louisville fave jockey Pat Day) to be bet down towards race time too.

(edited by DrewDewce on 1.5.04 0539)


"You have the right to suffer. You have the right to feel pain. If you wish to have an attorney present, I'll hurt him too!" - The Big Bossman
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 486 days
Last activity: 486 days
#14 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.65
    Originally posted by DrewDewce
      Originally posted by redsoxnation

      Its the year of the bomber. I'd go Birdstone with Prado at 50-1. Considering the year Prado is having and the Zito connection, I'd take them on a mule if I was getting 50-1.


    I've been telling people all week, and at the Wing Ding, and at Oaks that Birdstone is the pick, I don't care what the odds. If this race (and the Derby can't really be called just a race) was held two months ago, Birdstone would have been the favourite. Yes, he's had a rough Spring, but he's due and working well at Churchill. I'll have money across the board on him, and will DEFINITELY have him in my exotics.

    We hit 3 trifectas at Oaks, and I was talked out of my horse for a 4th. (3 guys picking 4 horses to box). That damn 2nd place horse KILLED us in the Oaks.

    5 to put in your trifectas, and/or superfectas

    Birdstone, Borrego, Friends Lake, Tapit, Master David

    Edit: According to WAVE 3, Birdstone is down to 15-1, so the traditional Louisville Zito Love is in full swing. Expect Minister Eric (with Louisville fave jockey Pat Day) to be bet down towards race time too.

    (edited by DrewDewce on 1.5.04 0539)





Birdstone should never have been 50-1 in the first place. Hopefully, it doesn't drop much lower than 12-1, so at least it would still pay a nice piece of change. With Bailey getting scratched, that means a shift in exacta/trifecta plans. I've replace Wimbledon with Lion Heart.
As for Pat Day, the weird thing about the Kentucky Col. is that he owns the Preakness, but has not had that level of success at the Derby.



Celtic Pride
1946-April 28, 2004
R.I.P.
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

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#15 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.07
    Originally posted by Bullitt
    I don't know much about the ponies, but I always get excited for the Derby.

    I'm looking at Smarty Jones at 9-2 from the 15 spot.
You've done it again



CRZ
Bullitt
Shot in the dark








Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#16 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.27
That should get me a custom title...seeing as I was the only one to pick it! :)





Making it Happen Since 1971 (agentzero.blogspot.com)
CRZ
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Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

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#17 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.07
    Originally posted by Bullitt
    That should get me a custom title...seeing as I was the only one to pick it! :)
I thought about it... but not for very long!



CRZ
Bullitt
Shot in the dark








Since: 11.1.02
From: Houston

Since last post: 3 days
Last activity: 2 days
#18 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.27
Worth a shot! :)





Making it Happen Since 1971 (agentzero.blogspot.com)
pieman
As young as
he feels








Since: 11.12.01
From: China, Maine

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#19 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.27
(deleted by CRZ on 2.5.04 0855)
DrewDewce
Bratwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Derby City

Since last post: 25 days
Last activity: 17 hours
Y!:
#20 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.74
They tell me it rained, but you couldn't tell from where I sat :-)

Hopefully we get to renew those seats every year like I do my Oaks tix.

Did very well betting over both days, but the Derby itself killed me and brought me back to a little below even for the weekend. My boss won on Smarty.

Of course, the best part of the Derby (for me) is the friends you don't get to spend enough time with the rest of the year that you get to spend all 72 hours with over 3 days every year.

I'm gettin' all misty here.

Congrats to anyone who had the Jones!



"You have the right to suffer. You have the right to feel pain. If you wish to have an attorney present, I'll hurt him too!" - The Big Bossman
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