The W
Views: 98308163
Main | FAQ | Search: Y! / G | Calendar | Color chart | Log in for more!
20.8.14 1728
The W - Current Events & Politics - Kennedy Endorsement
This thread has 8 referrals leading to it
Register and log in to post!
Thread rated: 6.30
Pages: 1
(394 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
User
Post (11 total)
DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 7 days
Last activity: 3 hours
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.42
Everyone is reporting that Ted Kennedy will endorse Obama today. They are saying this is huge for Obama. I am a lifelong Dem and maybe I am skewed in my out look but his endorsement doesn't mean squat to me. If anything, it makes me leary of obama. Reports are this is big for the Hispanic vote, but I doubt that also. Just curious what you all think.



Perception is reality
Promote this thread!
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 415 days
Last activity: 415 days
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.25
I think the impact of endorsements by individual politicians can be summarized by this: Go back to this time in '04, just prior to the Iowa Caucuses. Howard Dean wastes the Sunday before the caucus groveling in Georgia at the feet of Jimmy Carter for his endorsement. He gets said endorsement, then finishes up the track and became a joke within 72 hours of receiving the sacred endorsement. Now, if Obama gets Bill Clinton's endorsement, that would be news. Other than that, just something for the talking heads to blather about for a few hours.
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 21 days
Last activity: 4 hours
AIM:  
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
It can be useful to perhaps close the gap a bit in MA, and will help him with some NE fundraising, but other than that the main thing it does is to push in the media the idea that the establishment, and there is no one more establishment Dem than Ted Kennedy, is not unianimous in its support of Hilary. That can only help Obama at this point in the race.

Super Tuesday is going to be a bloodbath of epic proportions. On both sides.



2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
Von Maestro
Boudin rouge








Since: 6.1.04
From: New York

Since last post: 161 days
Last activity: 2 hours
#4 Posted on
    Originally posted by spf
    ...but other than that the main thing it does is to push in the media the idea that the establishment, and there is no one more establishment Dem than Ted Kennedy, is not unianimous in its support of Hilary. That can only help Obama at this point in the race.


Just to play devil's advocate to that point spf, I'm not sure that Obama getting the endorsement of a prominent Democrat who represents the "establishment" is something that will mesh all that well with Obama's message of "change".

It's hard to say that you are a shift from the status quo, when you have the support of the status quo...
spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 21 days
Last activity: 4 hours
AIM:  
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
    Originally posted by Von Maestro
      Originally posted by spf
      ...but other than that the main thing it does is to push in the media the idea that the establishment, and there is no one more establishment Dem than Ted Kennedy, is not unianimous in its support of Hilary. That can only help Obama at this point in the race.


    Just to play devil's advocate to that point spf, I'm not sure that Obama getting the endorsement of a prominent Democrat who represents the "establishment" is something that will mesh all that well with Obama's message of "change".

    It's hard to say that you are a shift from the status quo, when you have the support of the status quo...

True, but I think at this point the "change" vote is pretty much set for Obama (or Edwards). He needs to swing some of the traditional dems who think he's too scary or not Dem enough into his column. I don't think this changes many minds in and of itself, but it helps to build the message that Hilary is not inevitable and that it isn't only wackos on the fringe of the party supporting Obama. This might help him with older voters, who still remember Camelot fondly.





2007 W-League Fantasy Football champion!
CRZ
Big Brother
Administrator








Since: 9.12.01
From: ミネアポリス

Since last post: 1 day
Last activity: 5 hours
AIM:  
ICQ:  
Y!:
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 9.00
I think what this signals is that Ted has REALLY been frustrated by Bill's campaigning style over the past (week, fortnight) and that fact that it was enough to move him from the land of neutrality into Obama's column may be an indicator of a sentiment that is shared over the entire party. (Well, not the ENTIRE party, but a bigger portion than was originally surmised.)

I have to say it's really weird seeing the Clintons set up a "browns vs. blacks" race war just to get Hillary the nomination. I'm not even sure that can actually work now, because too many press folk are picking up on it and they risk a massive backlash - if not now, then MAYBE in the general election.

Sad to say, between this and whatever the heck is happening on the Republican side, the longer this goes on, the better the playing field looks for Mayor Mike...and a "lesser of THREE evils" race. Not exactly the kind of change the next generation is hungering for, I reckon.



redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 415 days
Last activity: 415 days
#7 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.25
    Originally posted by CRZ
    Sad to say, between this and whatever the heck is happening on the Republican side, the longer this goes on, the better the playing field looks for Mayor Mike...and a "lesser of THREE evils" race. Not exactly the kind of change the next generation is hungering for, I reckon.






I'd say it is still less than 50% that Mayor Mike enters the race. If you assume it is either Romney or McCain from the Republican side and Hillary or Obama from the Democratic side, then the following scenarios occur, barring some sort of brokered convention occurring:

Hillary vs. Romney: Almost definite Bloomberg enters, as that would probably be the only scenario where he could think he could get over 270 electoral votes.

Hillary vs. McCain: I doubt he would do anything to split the vote to help the Clintons, so unlikely he gets in here.

Obama vs. Romney: He'd be knocked out of the change element, highly doubtful he'd run.

Obama vs. McCain: Bloomberg would be an afterthought in this scenario. Least likely combination he'd run against.

Now, the real interesting thing, as everything in this world eventually revolves around this one man: Suppose all logic gets thrown out and Bloomberg breaks 270 electoral votes and becomes President. That means a special election would occur in New York City within 60 days for the vacant spot. Unlike a primary where the candidate must break 40% to avoid a run-off, this special election would be whoever gets the most votes wins. Now, it could potentially be an extremely large field that could break out, and what person could easily find 17% of the vote to get a plurality: The good Rev. Al Sharpton.
Lexus
Bierwurst








Since: 2.1.02
From: Stafford, VA

Since last post: 14 hours
Last activity: 1 hour
AIM:  
#8 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.00
    Originally posted by redsoxnation
      Originally posted by CRZ
      Sad to say, between this and whatever the heck is happening on the Republican side, the longer this goes on, the better the playing field looks for Mayor Mike...and a "lesser of THREE evils" race. Not exactly the kind of change the next generation is hungering for, I reckon.






    I'd say it is still less than 50% that Mayor Mike enters the race. If you assume it is either Romney or McCain from the Republican side and Hillary or Obama from the Democratic side, then the following scenarios occur, barring some sort of brokered convention occurring:

    Hillary vs. Romney: Almost definite Bloomberg enters, as that would probably be the only scenario where he could think he could get over 270 electoral votes.

    Hillary vs. McCain: I doubt he would do anything to split the vote to help the Clintons, so unlikely he gets in here.

    Obama vs. Romney: He'd be knocked out of the change element, highly doubtful he'd run.

    Obama vs. McCain: Bloomberg would be an afterthought in this scenario. Least likely combination he'd run against.

    Now, the real interesting thing, as everything in this world eventually revolves around this one man: Suppose all logic gets thrown out and Bloomberg breaks 270 electoral votes and becomes President. That means a special election would occur in New York City within 60 days for the vacant spot. Unlike a primary where the candidate must break 40% to avoid a run-off, this special election would be whoever gets the most votes wins. Now, it could potentially be an extremely large field that could break out, and what person could easily find 17% of the vote to get a plurality: The good Rev. Al Sharpton.


Wow, looking at all those scenarios, I think I'll go to hell to pick up my snocone when Bloomberg wins.

Back on topic, Kennedy's endorsement could potentially mean a world of difference if it comes down to Obama/Romney, as Romney's a Massachussets man himself. If anything, this could hurt Hillary if she makes it to the general election depending on how the Romney camp handles it if he makes it to the general election.



"Laugh and the world laughs with you. Frown and the world laughs at you."
-Me.
Big Bad
Scrapple








Since: 4.1.02
From: Dorchester, Ontario

Since last post: 15 hours
Last activity: 18 min.
#9 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.21
Who's actually going to vote for Bloomberg, though? Democratic voters are so anxious to get a D in the White House that they'll vote for Hillary, Obama or Edwards no matter who ends up with the nomination (and polls have shown that Democrats are largely satisfied with any of the three as their candidate). Even if some Dems sour on Hillary, they'll still pick her over Bloomberg, who gets lukewarm reactions even from New Yorkers and is technically a Republican.



How you uh, how you comin' on that novel you're working on? Huh? Gotta a big, uh, big stack of papers there? Gotta, gotta nice litte story you're working on there? Your big novel you've been working on for 3 years? Huh? Gotta, gotta compelling protaganist? Yeah? Gotta obstacle for him to overcome? Huh? Gotta story brewing there? Working on, working on that for quite some time? Huh? Yea, talking about that 3 years ago. Been working on that the whole time? Nice little narrative? Beginning, middle, and end? Some friends become enemies, some enemies become friends? At the end your main character is richer from the experience? Yeah? Yeah?
wmatistic
Andouille








Since: 2.2.04
From: Austin, TX

Since last post: 12 days
Last activity: 2 hours
AIM:  
#10 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.08
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/28/womens-group-slams-kennedy-for-betrayal/

"In a sharply critical statement, the New York state chapter of NOW took aim at Kennedy Monday for what it called an "ultimate betrayal," and suggested the Massachusetts Democrat "can't or won't" handle the idea of Clinton becoming President of the United States."

Oh and it gets worse if you read the rest. Wow. Apparently if you don't support Hillary you hate women.
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 415 days
Last activity: 415 days
#11 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.25
    Originally posted by Big Bad
    Who's actually going to vote for Bloomberg, though? Democratic voters are so anxious to get a D in the White House that they'll vote for Hillary, Obama or Edwards no matter who ends up with the nomination (and polls have shown that Democrats are largely satisfied with any of the three as their candidate). Even if some Dems sour on Hillary, they'll still pick her over Bloomberg, who gets lukewarm reactions even from New Yorkers and is technically a Republican.




Bloomberg was a Democrat who became a Republican because he couldn't win a Democratic Primary and has already renounced his membership in the Republican Party.
Now, let me state that I don't think he can get 270 electoral votes, and even if he would get 269 votes, he wouldn't win if the election was thrown into the House because he would have no party support. However, there are around 1 billion reasons why Bloomberg would at least be treated as a viable candidate. If you are the media, you are going to get bored by whoever the party nominees are by early summer, barring the races going to the convention. Bloomberg provides excitement. He also provides a nice chunk of change that he can sink into advertising in said media, thus the media will at least be receptive towards Bloomberg initially. In a weak economy with TV ratings plummetting, Bloomberg's advertising would be a godsend, especially during the months prior to the conventions when the Republican and Democratic nominees will be hamstrung financially. If he loses and spends a billion, then Bloomberg still has around 5 billion left, so he won't be out on the street selling apples.
On the Kennedy endorsement being an issue in November against Romney: A Republican isn't winning Massachusetts in the general election. I barely make Romney better than a coin toss favorite against McCain in the Republican primary in Massachusetts. Nice to see Ted's son throwing his endorsement to Obama, as his endorsement of Dodd did wonders for his campaign. As for NOW: Only 38.5 years late to the dance on this one.

(edited by redsoxnation on 28.1.08 2312)
Thread rated: 6.30
Pages: 1
Thread ahead: McCain, Clinton win Florida
Next thread: Obama wins South Carolina
Previous thread: Dangerous Meds
(394 newer) Next thread | Previous thread
Iraq harbors those that attacked us. Iraq SUPPORTED those who attacked us. This is not true. If it were true, I'd probably have a different opinion about going to war (which I haven't really made up my mind on anyway).
- MoeGates, Susan Sarandon is stupid (2002)
The W - Current Events & Politics - Kennedy EndorsementRegister and log in to post!

The W™ message board

ZimBoard
©2001-2014 Brothers Zim

This old hunk of junk rendered your page in 0.117 seconds.