Three fantastic episodes to start the new season. The fact that Frank kept going out of his way to prove he wasn't a pedo was hilarious.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." --- Bart Giamatti, on baseball
I don't think you're off at all. I think they're purposely building up to Pam breaking up with Jim due to all of his shortcomings or (less likely) Jim breaking up with Pam because he sees that she feels he's not good enough for her.