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31.10.14 1601
The W - Current Events & Politics - Iowa and NH Predictions Register and log in to post!
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spf
Scrapple








Since: 2.1.02
From: The Las Vegas of Canada

Since last post: 19 days
Last activity: 1 day
AIM:  
#1 Posted on | Instant Rating: 5.16
Well, after what has seemingly been the most interminable pre-election campaign in the history of the human race, we are within striking distance of the beginning of the beginning of the end of the beginning. January 3rd is the Iowa Caucus, and January 8th is the New Hampshire Primary. With the races in both states for both parties some of the tightest in my lifetime, I figure its about time for the learned minds of The W to chime in with their guesses about how the two states will shake out.

My personal hunch is that Iowa ends up something like:
Obama 34
Edwards 31
Clinton 28

Huckabee 36
Romney 33
McCain 18

In Iowa I think the second choice ballots will end up pushing Edwards up past Clinton, and Obama past both of them. I sense most people have made up their minds on Hilary, and many less voters who are currently supporting a second-tier candidate (Dodd, Biden, Kucinich, Richardson) will be shifting to Hilary when their candidate becomes inviable. As for the GOP side I'm just feeling like Huckabee has put in the work in Iowa and is going to reap the rewards, as enough of the values voters who are still tossing the coin between Huckabee and Romney will end up going for the Baptist over the Mormon.

For New Hampshire I'm guessing:
Obama 33
Clinton 31
Edwards 20

McCain 32
Romney 31
Giuliani 17

Obama will get a bounce out of Iowa, and Hilary has a strong machine in NH from back in Bill's days. Edwards will remain in the game, but likely begin to get nudged out of the spotlight as the Dem race narrows to two people, with some of the second-tier names dropping out soon after. On the GOP side the love affair between McCain and NH continues as he edges out Romney. Giuliani registers in 3rd place, keeping him in the game as his strategy of doing well in the huge states as opposed to the small first states gets tested. Huckabee may get some bounce from Iowa, but likely not enough to jump into the top 3, as his campaign looks to South Carolina to make their next stand. Thompson looks like the big loser at this point, unable to crack top 3 in either state and having trouble justifying why he should get support.

That's my guess. What say you?
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DrDirt
Banger








Since: 8.10.03
From: flyover country

Since last post: 8 days
Last activity: 9 hours
#2 Posted on | Instant Rating: 8.67
I couldn't even guess on the Republican side. For the Dems, I just think something will happen to tip the scales for Hillary, especially in New Hampshire.



Perception is reality
SKLOKAZOID
Bratwurst








Since: 20.3.02
From: California

Since last post: 20 hours
Last activity: 19 min.
AIM:  
#3 Posted on | Instant Rating: 6.96
I would be very surprised if it ended up being anything other than Hilary vs Giuliani. Even with all this home stretch drama in the last few months, I think each party sees those two as the most "electable" and therefore, best candidates.

Personally, I don't like either.
General Zod
Italian








Since: 1.10.05
From: Mesa, Arizona

Since last post: 847 days
Last activity: 35 days
#4 Posted on | Instant Rating: 4.73
I may be going out on a limb here but I think that Joe Biden will do better than expected in Iowa (finishing in the top three). The assassination of Bhutto just emphasizes the need for the next President to be intelligent with regards to foreign policy.



Keep it Funky!
redsoxnation
Scrapple








Since: 24.7.02

Since last post: 487 days
Last activity: 487 days
#5 Posted on | Instant Rating: 3.48
Iowa
D
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
R
Romney
Huckabee(as happened on the other side in '04, if the caucus was 2 weeks earlier, he would have won)
McCain

New Hampshire
D
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
R
McCain
Romney
Giuliani(distant 3rd)
Grimis
Scrapple








Since: 11.7.02
From: MD

Since last post: 1277 days
Last activity: 1074 days
#6 Posted on | Instant Rating: 7.29
Iowa Democrats
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Biden

This is going to be closer than you think it is

Iowa Republicans
Romney
Huckabee
Thompson
McCain
Paul
Giuliani

Romney wins, but Thompson finishes a strong, strong third.

NH Democrats
Clinton
Obama
Edwards

NH Republicans
McCain
Romney
Giuliani
Paul

Yes....a fourth place finish for Ron Paul, with the Independents making up the difference to get him there.
MoeGates
Andouille








Since: 6.1.02
From: Brooklyn, NY

Since last post: 10 days
Last activity: 2 days
#7 Posted on
Iowa Dems:

Edwards
Obama
Clinton

Iowa GOP:

Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Paul
Guiliani
Thompson

NH Dems:
Clinton
Edwards
Obama

NH GOP:
McCain
Guiliani
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
Thompson

Winners and Losers:

After these two, Edwards, Huckabee, and McCain are in beter shape, Clinton and Romney are in worse shape, Guiliani and Obama are about the same. Ron Paul gets a little boost, but not enough to vault him into top-tier status. Fred Thompson is done. The horse race continues to Super Tuesday when it'll sort itself out a little better.

Between me and grimis posting here it's like 2003 all over again!



Man's most valuable trait is a judicious sense of what not to believe.
-
Euripides


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I would agree more with the idea that it would get regulated had this not passed.
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